Date post: | 26-Jun-2015 |
Category: |
Business |
Upload: | xiongjianvlsi |
View: | 1,005 times |
Download: | 0 times |
BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company.Copyright © 2010 Boeing. All rights reserved.
The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and provided for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance. Actual results may vary depending on certain events or conditions. This document should not be used or relied upon for any purpose other thanthat intended by Boeing.
Randy TinsethVice President, MarketingBoeing Commercial AirplanesJuly 2010
CURRENT MARKET OUTLOOK
BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company.Copyright © 2010 Boeing. All rights reserved.
The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and provided for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance. Actual results may vary depending on certain events or conditions. This document should not be used or relied upon for any purpose other thanthat intended by Boeing.
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
Agenda
Current Market Outlook (CMO)
Market trends and realities
20-year forecast
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
Long-term forecast reflects today’s market realitiesBoeing has publicly issued its Current Market Outlook for more than 40 years. During that time, the Outlook has reflected both sizeable upturns and downturns. Our industry has faced significant market challenges, including the Asian Financial Crisis, SARS, terrorist acts, three major world recessions, two Gulf wars….all clearly with their own dynamics and their own impact on global air travel. What we have learned is that our industry, which is based on the need to transport passengers and freight via our global aviation system, is extremely resilient.
Based on that perspective, as we always do, we have developed the forecast in a manner that considers today’s market environment but, just as importantly, takes a long-term view of the market and the fundamentals that drive commercial aviation. These drivers include economic growth, world trade, market liberalization, new aircraft capabilities, etc.
So, while acknowledging our near-term challenges, let’s take a longer-view look. Over the next 20-years, the basic factors underlying new airplane demand are strong.
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
Boeing Current Market Outlook
Published since 1964
All jets 30 seats and above
No turbo props
No business jets
Scheduled and nonscheduled flying
Freighters
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
Entirely web-based CMOhttp://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/
Real-time
Interactive
Downloadable
Popular (last 12 months)
Visits: 710,122
Downloads: 259,971
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
Boeing product forecast in-line with the realities of the market
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Boeing forecast2000 – 201922,315 units
RegionalJet19%
Single-aisle55%
Twin-aisle21%
Large5%
*Deliveries 2000 thru May 14, 2010 plus backlog
LargeTwin-aisleSingle-aisleRegional jet
Size category
Airplane demand2000 – Present*
17,796 units
RegionalJet14%
Single-aisle62%
Twin-aisle21%
Large 3%
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
A380LargeTwin-aisleSingle-aisle
Size category
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Airbus forecast2000 – 201914,661 units
Single-aisle55%
Twin-aisle35%
A3809%
Airplane demand2000 – Present*
14,698 units
Different view of the market has led to different strategies
* Deliveries 2000 thru May 14, 2010 plus backlog (passenger jets only, excluding RJs)
Boeing forecast2000 – 201917,318 units
Single-aisle71%
Twin-aisle25%
Large4%
Single-aisle75%
Twin-aisle23%
Large 2%
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
Agenda
Current Market Outlook (CMO)
Market trends and realities
20-year forecast
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
Single-aisle* demand exceeding expectations
Growth driven by:
Low Cost Carriers
Emerging markets
Replacement demand
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Airbusforecast**
4,726
Boeingforecast
5,228
Airplanedeliveries
6,084
*Single-aisle defined as all single-aisle aircraft >90 seats** Airbus forecast estimated by Boeing from GMF
10-year forecast, 2000 - 2009
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
Air travel becoming more diverse geographically
58%72%
Air traffic, RPKs (billions)
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2009 20290
2,000
1990
Other
China
Asia(excl. China)
Europe
NorthAmerica
45%
Middle East
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
2029
Emerging business models are growing and gaining market share
Emerging business models
Network& other
Air traffic, RPKs (billions)
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2,000
200919900
75%86%
62%
38%
25%
14%
*Emerging business models include LCCs, 6th Freedom Gulf carriers and Chinese carriers
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
Passengers wanting– and getting– more frequencies and nonstop service
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Frequency Growth
Nonstop Markets
Average Airplane Size
Air Travel Growth
August OAG
WorldIndex 2000=1.00
All routes
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
Long-range twins dominating as airlines meet the demands of their customers
All jets
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2000-2009Deliveries
8:18:1
Year-end 2009Backlog
7:17:1
Twin-aisles Large Twin-aisles Large
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
Volatile fuel prices impacting the industry Spot $/Barrel (Brent Crude Oil / Rotterdam Jet Fuel)
Crude Oil
Jet Fuel
Historical data source: EIA
Ended economic viability of small regional jets Forced airlines to Accelerate fleet
renewal Improve non-fuel
cost management Streamline fleet
operations Encouraging
development of alternative fuel sources0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Averageannualprices
$292000$242001$252002
2003 $292004 $382005 $552006 $652007 $722008 $972009 $62
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
Market trends and realities summary
Single-aisle airplane demand stronger and more resilient than expected
Emerging markets and business models creating a more diverse and balanced marketplace
Passengers getting what they want-- more frequencies and nonstop service-- spurring strong demand for long-range twins
Rising and volatile fuel prices will continue to change our industry
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
Agenda
Current Market Outlook (CMO)
Market trends and realities
20-year forecast
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
Market forecast drivers and considerationsTraffic forecastTraffic forecast
7.8
7.5
5.8
6.6
5.1
6.6
7.0
5.6
5.1
3.2
4.1
4.3
4.9
0 2 4 6 8
China
Southwest Asia
Africa
Southeast Asia
CIS
Middle East
South America
Central America
Oceania
North America
Europe
Northeast Asia
WORLD
Annual growth, 2009 - 2028
Percentage
7.8
7.5
5.8
6.6
5.1
6.6
7.0
5.6
5.1
3.2
4.1
4.3
4.9
0 2 4 6 8
China
Southwest Asia
Africa
Southeast Asia
CIS
Middle East
South America
Central America
Oceania
North America
Europe
Northeast Asia
WORLD
Annual growth, 2009 - 2028
Percentage
High speed railHigh speed railEnvironmentEnvironment
Airplane capabilitiesAirplane capabilitiesEconomic growthEconomic growth
Fuel priceFuel price
$70-90/barrel
InfrastructureInfrastructure
Airline strategies &Airline strategies &business modelsbusiness models
Market liberalizationMarket liberalization
Network developmentNetwork development
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
World air travel has grown 5% per year since 1977
RPKs = Revenue Passenger KilometersSources: ICAO Scheduled Traffic
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.019
7719
7819
7919
8019
8119
8219
8319
8419
8519
8619
8719
8819
8919
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
10F
Trend
RPK
s (tr
illio
ns)
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
20-year forecast: strong long-term growth
3.2%World
economy(GDP)
3.3%Airplane fleet
5.3%Airlinetraffic(RPK)
5.9%Cargotraffic(RTK)
2009 to 2029
Numberof airline
passengers4.2%
20-year traffic growth rates are higher than last year's forecast because they are calculated off a lower base year
4.9%
5.4%
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
Air travel growth has been met by increased frequencies and nonstops
Frequency GrowthNonstop Markets
Average Airplane Size
Air Travel Growth
August OAG
WorldIndex 1988=1.00
All routes
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
Airlines will need 30,900 new airplanes valued at $3.6 trillion
Airplane deliveries: 30,9002010 - 2029
Market value: $3.6T2010 - 2029
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
25,000
1,920regional jets
6%
21,160single-aisle
69%
7,100twin-aisle
23%
720large2%
0
400
800
1,200
1,800
Airp
lane u
nits
Marke
t valu
e, $ b
illion
s
$60Bregional jets
2%
$1,680Bsingle-aisle
47%
$1,630Btwin-aisle
45%
$220Blarge6%
20,000 1,600
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
Older, less efficient airplanes will be replaced with more efficient, newer generation airplanes
Units
18,89018,890
36,30036,300
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2009
5,400Retained fleet
13,490Replacement
44%
17,410Growth
56%
30,90030,900
2029
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
World fleet will nearly double by 2029
202920293%
68%
23%6%
18,890airplanes
2009200920192019
Large Twin-aisle Single-aisle Regional jet
3%
67%
20%10%
61%
19%16%
27,060airplanes
36,300airplanes
4%
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
1.9
NortheastAsia
SoutheastAsia 4.3
4.6AsiaPacific
Emerging markets are driving the economic growth
Source:Global Insight
Annual GDP growth2010 – 2029
1.4
2.7
2.7
3.2
3.3
4.0
4.0
4.4
6.1
7.3
Europe
NorthAmerica
Oceania
World
CIS
LatinAmerica
MiddleEast
Africa
SouthAsia
China
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
North America – Latin America
Middle East – Asia Pacific
Europe – Asia Pacific
Air travel growth varies by market
2009 traffic2009 traffic
Europe – Latin America
RPKs, billions*includes within China
Africa – Europe
Within CIS
Within Latin America
Transpacific
North Atlantic
Within China
Within Europe
Within North America
Asia Pacific*
Added traffic2010-2029
Added traffic2010-2029
AnnualAnnualgrowth%growth%
7.9%5.6%
4.8%7.1%
5.3%4.6%
4.6%4.8%
4.3%7.5%
4.1%2.8%
7.1%
World Average Growth:
5.3%
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
Market for new airplanes set to becomeconsiderably more geographically balanced
34%
23%
23%
8%7%
2%
37%
19%
22%
11%
3% 2%
New airplane deliveries by region2010–2029
Market value by region2010–2029
Region AirplanesAsia Pacific 10,320North America 7,200Europe 7,190Middle East 2,340Latin America 2,180C.I.S. 960Africa 710
World Total 30,900
Region $BAsia Pacific 1,320North America 700Europe 800Middle East 390Latin America 210C.I.S. 90Africa 80
World Total $3,590B
3% 6%
30,900 $3.6T
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
World Air Cargo ForecastProjected traffic
Current Market OutlookPassenger and combi airplane forecast
Freighter airplanerequirement
minusminus
equalsequals
Integrated top-down/bottom-up freighter fleet forecast methodology
Total cargo liftDemand
Total cargo liftDemand
Lower-hold liftSupply
Lower-hold liftSupply
Needed freighter liftSupply
Needed freighter liftSupply
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
Future freighter deliveries will be led by demand for large widebodies
New freighter deliveries: 7402010–2029
Airp
lane u
nits
Market value: $180 billion2010–2029
Marke
t valu
e
0
100
200
300
400
600
0
25
50
75
100
150
210Medium40 to 80tonnes
1%
29%
$40BMedium40 to 80tonnes
23%
<1%$1B
StandardLess than 45 tonnes
$140BLarge
More than80 tonnes
77%
10StandardLess than45 tonnes
520Large
More than 80 tonnes
70%125500
COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY
Future freight740 new and 1,750 converted
Market value: $180 billion
Size categoryLargeMore than 80 tonnes
Medium40 to 80 tonnes
StandardLess than 45 tonnes
2009Freighters
1,750
2029Freighters2,980
2010 to 2029freighters
2,490
1,070
520
250
210430 10
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
54%
14%
15%
17%
48%
18%
20%
14%
3%
59%16%
22%
European airlines business model shifts
Source: Boeing CMOs
ASKs
LCC Charter/IT Broad Network Other Networks
20192019
2000200020092009
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
Europe air traffic growth varies by market
Europe Average Growth: 4.4%
Region’s Average GDP Growth: 1.9%
2009 traffic2009 traffic
RPKs, billions
To and fromSouth America
To and fromSoutheast Asia
To and fromMiddle East
To and fromAfrica
To and fromNorth America
WithinEurope
To and fromNortheast Asia
To and fromChina
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,6001,400
To and fromSouth Asia
To and fromCentral America
4.1%
4.3%
6.0%
5.5%
6.0%
5.0%
AnnualAnnualgrowth %growth %
Added traffic2010 - 2029
Added traffic2010 - 2029
4.1%
3.7%
7.1%
4.6%
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
European airlines will need 7,190 new airplanes
LargeTwin-aisleSingle-aisleRegional jet
Size category
Market value: $800 billion
2010 to 2029New airplanes
7,190
Share of fleet Delivery units
2009Airplanes
4,300
2029Airplanes7,460
2%
75%
19%4%
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
Units
7,4607,460
2009 2029
A large demand for replacing older, less-efficient aircraft
3,160Growth
44%
4,030Replacement
56%
270Retained fleet
7,1904,3004,300
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
European airlines’ environmental strategy means more new airplanes
4%Remaining
airplanes
96%New airplanes
Better for:• Environment• Passengers• Airlines
2029Airplane fleet
7,460
Share of fleet100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
Full market coverage from 100-500 seats
Environmentally progressive
Operational commonality
Long-range, fast, reliable
Low operating cost
Standardization
Passengerexperience
Lifecycle solutions
Full market coverage from 100-500 seats
Environmentally progressive
Operational commonality
Long-range, fast, reliable
Low operating cost
Standardization
Passengerexperience
Lifecycle solutions
Market-driving products and services
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
L.America& Africa
Asia Pacific
Leasing & Gov't
North America
Russia
ME,Central
&S. Asia
China, East &
SE AsiaEurope
Substantial, balanced backlog validates Boeing’s product strategy
Backlog $Backlog $ ModelModel
RegionRegion
Single-Aisle 32%
Twin-Aisle
60%
747
737
767
$ = Billions
787
777Large
8%
250250279
255
174
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2006 2007 2008 2009 1Q 2010
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
Single-aisle47%
Large6%
RJ2%
Twin-aisle45%
(in 2009 $)
Unsold$2.6T
Single-aisle49%
Twin-aisle44%
Large5%
RJ2%
737
787
777
747
767
Unmet demand provides tremendous opportunity for the future
Forecast$3.6T
737
787
777
747
767
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
Things to remember Boeing CMO: long-term forecast reflecting realities of today’s market Shapes our product strategy Supports our long-range business plan Provides valuable data in our airline planning process
Aviation industry resilient; long-term market outlook is strong Passenger air travel will grow at 5.3%, cargo at 5.9% Airlines will need 30,900 new airplanes valued at $3.6 trillion,
European airlines will need 7,190 airplanes valued at $800 billion Boeing’s market-driving products and services are ideally matched to
the market today… and in the future
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
There are 52 weeks in a year
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Actual year-end net orders4,234 4,234 toto 4,2634,263
AirbusBoeing
Net orders at the end of the year are what count
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2005Paris
2006Farnborough
2007Paris
2008Farnborough
2009Paris
Airshow “announcements”1,2611,261 toto 477477
AirbusBoeing
BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company.Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved.
For more information, please visit our CMO website: http://www.boeing.com/cmo
You can also visit my blog, Randy’s Journal: http://boeingblogs.com/randy/