2010 LANDSCAPE OF BALLOT MEASURES

Challenging Ballot Measures Before Qualification

Themes and Motivations of the Right and Left

Ballot Measure Landscape

Building on 2008 Victories…

A year of change Kicking measures off Going after the bad guys with smarter and more

aggressive tactics

4

BISC’s strategy of creating concerns about Connerly were the most concerning reason to vote no in Colorado, from post election survey research

23%

29%

36%

Gives me serious concerns about 46 Gives me moderate concerns about 46

46 sponsored by multi-millionaire Californian Ward Connerly who puts anti-affirmative action measures on the ballot for his benefit: paid over $7 M in salary and speaking fees by his two tax-exempt nonprofits that sponsored anti-affirmative action measures in CA, WA, MI, and now CO

All voters

“Yes”Voters

46%

“Yes”Voters

41%

46 only got on the ballot because sponsors misrepresented its purpose, calling it Colorado Civil Rights Initiative, but 46 hurts civil rights by taking away equal opportunity and affirmative action programs in Colorado

46 would result in women and minorities being underrepresented in government jobs and at state colleges and universities in Colorado

56%

50%

45%

“Yes”Voters

38%

Building on 2008 victories…

Keeping the pressure on through multiple cycles Getting national organizations at a TABLE

Sizing it Up: The 2010 Climate

Lots of activity in key ballot measure states States are the front burner for the right wing Interest in progressive proactive issues Movement on federal Financial crisis is dominate Right-wing is looking to rebrand No one is in charge Fissures in conservative blocks

Right Wing Motivations in 2010

Political (to win back majorities in Congress)

Political (to divert money, particularly from labor from candidate races with right to work, paycheck deception, “open and clean”)

Political (create new villains – such as anti-judge, anti-trial lawyer, anti-environmentalists, anti labor)

Ideological (extremists vs. very extremists on choice; immigration; gay adoption; school choice/vouchers)

Economic (the Koch industry new anti-tax model; whatever Howie Rich decides to fund, fiscal crisis issues like payday lending, public pension issues, credit ratings)

Structural changes (redistricting, voter ID and ballot access issues, absentee voting/vote by mail, campaign spending and disclosure)

Issues on the horizon

2009 Anti-Labor/Education Measures

ME: TABOR & Excise Tax Cut

WA: TABOR & Multiple Tax Cut Initiatives Circulating.Signatures Due

July 3rd

CA: Five referrals dealing with the budget situation failed

NH: Three Municipal Tax Caps (probable)

Measure(s) Qualified for 2009 Ballot

Initiative(s) Circulating for 2009 Ballot

Color Status

Measure Qualified for2010 Ballot

Successful Defeat ofSOS Statute or

Referenda in 2009

Initiative Circulating

Initiative Filed

Legislative Referendaor Statutory SOS filed

* Indicates other active anti-worker initiatives, referenda, memorials, or bills. Contact the Ballot Initiative Strategy Center for more information on these threats. Anti-worker efforts have already been defeated in 15 states.

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“Save Our Secret Ballot” Threats

MT

ALGA

SC

TN

ND

OR

AK

Anti-Choice Initiatives- Constitutional personhood initiatives (blanket abortion ban) are circulating in MS and OR, and have been filed in MT. The MS initiative would also ban Death with Dignity programs.- In AK, an initiative requiring parental notification before a minor can obtain an abortion was filed- In MO, a constitutional initiative to prohibit the legislature from funding any abortion-related services or stem cell research was filed.

Potential Anti-Choice Referenda- Constitutional personhood referenda failed in AL, MD, MT, ND, and SC, but are still 2010 threats; a statutory personhood bill failed in GA (of these states, an initiative has been filed in MT and is possible in ND).- In TN, the legislature passed a constitutional referenda to allow the restriction and regulation of abortion. It must be passed by a 2/3 majority in the next session to be placed on the ballot.

MO

MS

MD

Abortion the new gay marriage?

Bankrupting State Government

Fiscal Policy Measure(s) Qualified

Potential Fiscal Policy Measures

IN:PropertyTax Cap(2010)

MI:- TABOR (State and Local - 2010)- Super-Majority Requirement for Tax Increases (2010)- Limit State Employee Benefits to Private Sector Average (2010)

FL:- Property Tax Cap and Exemption Increases (Qualified - 2010)- TABOR (potential - 2010)- Business Tax Cuts (potential - 2010)

ME:-TABOR (Qualified - 2009)- Excise Tax Cut (Qualified - 2009)

MO:Fair Tax(2010)

CO:- TABOR Expansion (Circulating - 2010)- Multiple Tax Cuts (Circulating - 2010)- TABOR Repeal (Potential - 2010)

OR:- Business Tax Increase (2010)- Income Tax Increase for Top Bracket (2010)

AZ:- Property Tax Cap (circulating for 2010)- Tax Package -TABOR (Potential 2010)

CA:Tax Reform (2010)

WA:- TABOR (circulating - 2009)- Progressive Reform: Sales Tax Increase or Income Tax (Potential - 2010)

Fiscal Policy Initiatives(s) Circulating

Proactive Activity

Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 14 |

Turnout Audiences

Obama succeeded in 2008, in part, by turning out and winning by bigger than normal margins among key parts of the progressive base Voters under 30 African Americans Hispanics Unmarried women

These voters made up a full 46 percent of the electorate in 2008, yet now represent a majority (52%) of the voting age population – and are growing rapidly as part of our population. This is a new development in American politics. Traditionally these voters have been viewed as a “minority,” but they are a majority in terms of VAP. They are still under-represented in the electorate.

Many of these voters show disturbing signs of dropping out of the 2010 electorate. Indeed, four in ten of these voters are at risk of dropping out.

Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 15 | Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 15 |

30

39

44

54

32

0 20 40 60 80

African American

Unmarried Women

Latino

Youth

All Voters

What are the chances that you will vote in the elections in 2010 for Congress and other offices, on a scale of 1 to 10, where10 means you are absolutely certain to vote and 1 means you are certain not to vote.

Potential Drop-off Much Higher Among Key Targets

1-9 or DK on likelihood of voting on 10 point scale

Data from Women’s Voices. Women Vote.

Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 16 |

Young Voters Trending Democratic

6660

54

3238

45

0

20

40

60

80

2008 2006 2004

Democrat/Democrat in Presidential

Republican/Republican in Presidential

Data from CNN Exit Polling and Current Population Survey (CPS)

Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 17 |

Hispanics Trending Democratic in Recent Elections

67 69

53

31 30

44

0

20

40

60

80

100

2008 2006 2004

Democrat/Democrat in Presidential

Republican/Republican in Presidential

Data from CNN Exit Polling and Current Population Survey (CPS)Note that there have been some questions about whether

Bush’s Hispanic numbers were over-stated by the exit polls in 2004

Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 18 |

Unmarried Women Solidly Democratic in Recent Elections

70 66 62

30 32 37

0

20

40

60

80

100

2008 2006 2004

Democrat/Democrat in Presidential

Republican/Republican in Presidential

Data from Democracy Corps post-election surveys in 2004, 2006, and 2008

Proactive Ballot Measure Tables

Proactive ideas being tested

Work and Family Worker safety mandates

Living & minimum wage increases

Wage enforcement measures

Index minimum wage (where not done already) Tie wages to CEO salaries

Worker privacy/free speech rights

Mandatory workers’ rights education

Unpaid leave for parents’ school meetings

Improve workers comp & unemployment benefits

Anti-union busting initiatives

Anti-outsourcing initiatives

Mandatory paid vacation days

Mandatory paid sick days

Increase damages collected by employees in wage disputes

Roll back “Right to Work” laws and other anti-worker legislation

Corporate Accountability Executive compensation limits

Limits profits from public land use

Remove or limit tax deductibility on advertising

Limit corporate political contributions

Enhanced consumer rights Corporate liability standards Disclosure and safety requirements, etc.

Best practice and transparency standards for contracting Protection for whistleblowers

Tax disclosure requirements Strict financial penalties

Tax & Government Spending Millionaire Tax Tax breaks for corporations that

offer living wage and healthcare to all employees

Tax increases for corporations that do not offer a living wage and healthcare benefits

Mandatory sunset provision for all tax breaks

Tax increases to pay for specific and/or popular programs E.g., Increased cigarette tax to

fund children’s health insurance

Health Care State health insurance Employer mandated healthcare coverage PhRMA cost containment Reduce COBRA cost during unemployment Improve access to rural healthcare Improve provider/patient ratio Allow individuals to create healthcare pools

Energy/Environment Initiatives to encourage green buildings Tax credits for weatherization Incentives for green job creation Raising renewable energy portfolio standards Renewable energy portfolios

___________An aggressive proactive posture

OUR VISION. GREATER THAN THE SUM OF ITS PARTS.

Smarter defensive campaigns+Long term success