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Disruptive Innovation in Modern IT World

John Sing, Executive Strategy Consultant, IBM

video

USA perspective

Let’s compare with India perspective

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Agenda

1. Exploiting the opportunity: Data, Data, Data! Real-time Data Factories

Bandwidth created “The Cloud”

Internet Scale Data Center architectures house internet scale data

2. Disruptive Innovation in Today’s IT World The Non-Traditional Competitor

The mobile Web 3.0

3. Principles, collaboration for a successful IT Future

Inter-disciplinaryInter-

Disciplinary

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Part 1: Exploiting the Opportunity: Data! Data! Data!

1. Exploiting the Opportunity: Data, Data, Data! Real-time Data Factories

Bandwidth created “The Cloud”

Internet Scale Data Center Architectures house internet scale data

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The nature of workloads is rapidly shifting….

Rapid unstructured data growth

Unstructured data workloads

=

Traditional OLTP,

database

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Humans collecting useful data on massive scale

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We are building real-time, integrated stream computing on massive scale

n d

Inter-

Disciplinary

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IBM Predictive Analytics: Movement in a City

•10 minute-ahead volume forecast (blue) vs. actual value (black)

•10 minute-ahead speed forecast (blue) vs. actual value (black).

Blue line: IBM analytics prediction 10 minutes in advanceBlack line: actual result

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IBM Predictive Analytics Ensuring Public Safety: video

Memphis Blue CRUSH MapMemphis Blue CRUSH Map

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A new class of data-rich industries is emerging

Today’s Hyperscale Data Companies

New business models: company’s value based on amount of information stored, exploited

Tomorrow’s Hyperscale Data Companies

Aerospace

Banking

Energy

Government

Healthcare

Insurance

Manufacturing

Media andEntertainment

Retail

3.5 PB in 20101 TB CT scanner → 2.5 PB/Year/Scanner

20 PB in 2011Grow 300 TB per month, every month

ExamplesIndustries

Healthcare

Provider

Claims

Processor

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McKinsey Global Report on Big Data – May 2011

Number of Big Data scientists and mgrs

needed in USA

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Will Big Data Change the Way We Compete? Already Has!

Finance

Information

Healthcare

Ease ofcapture

Value

1414

Glo

bal

Dat

a V

olu

me

in E

xab

ytes

Sens

ors

(Inte

rnet

of T

hing

s)

Multiple sources: IDC,Cisco

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

Agg

rega

te U

ncer

tain

ty %

VoIP

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

2005 2010 2015

The Big Data opportunity is huge

Enterprise Data

2015: # networked devices 2x global population

Social Media

(video, audio and text)

Total # social media accounts > global population.

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Worldwide, Broadband Internet Speeds are Zooming

Inter-

Disciplinary

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http://www.de-cix.net/about/statistics/

End user average connection speed

State of worldwide Internet: average Internet user connection speed

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Growth ofThe Cloudby 2014

• Mobile

• Geo-locational

• Real-time data

• Shift to cloud mega-data centers

http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns1175/Cloud_Index_White_Paper.htmlSource:

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How Big is the World? - 1

http://wikibon.org/blog/how-big-is-the-world-of-cloud-computing-infographic/

This is significant

Cheaper7.1x5.7x7.3x

NetworkStorageAdmins

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Bandwidth Availability created “The Cloud”…………

• Worldwide bandwidth

• Pervasive web services delivery model – (i.e. “The Cloud”)

• Data centers with massive amounts:– Processors– Storage– Network

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Bandwidth and the Cloud…..• Internet-scale centers…..

• Data: – 10s / 100s petabytes

• Servers: – 100,000s ….

• Workloads:– Require server clusters

of 100s, 1000s, 10,000, more …..

21http://wikibon.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/5-top-data-centers.html

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Large Data Centers in past 2 years

10. SUPERNAP, LAS VEGAS, 407,000 SF

9A and 9B. MICROSOFT QUINCY AND SAN ANTONIO DATA CENTERS, 470,000 S

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Container Data Center Architecture 7. PHOENIX ONE, PHOENIX, ARIZ. 538,000 SF

5. MICROSOFT CHICAGO DATA CENTER, Chicago 700,000 SF

2. QTS METRO DATA CENTER, ATLANTA, 990,000 SF

Microsoft’s Chicago Container Data Center

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More data centers….

4. NEXT GENERATION DATA EUROPE, WALES 750,000 SF

3. NAP OF THE AMERICAS, MIAMI, 750,000 SF

1. 350 EAST CERMAK, CHICAGO, 1.1 MILLION SQUARE FEET

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2012: Other large world data centers

Tulip Telecom, India, Bangalore

China to build 6.2 M sq feet data center by 2016

Amadeus, Erding, Germany

Utah Data Center, US Govt, 1M sq feet

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Now….. what about the web giants?

• i.e. Apple, Facebook, Google, Amazon, etc?

That’s Big!

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AppleHere’s what powers iCloud, see Jobs at WWDC 2011 iCloud announce (YouTube)

Rendering of Apple's new North Carolina Data Center. Credit: Apple

Apple Data Center

FAQ

Maiden, North Carolina 500K sq ftUSD $1Billion

Apple Data Center Newark, California

Under construction: Prineville, Oregon

iCloud

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Facebook

Lulea, Sweden - 290K sq ft (27K sq meters) by late 2012

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Amazon Web Services

Amazon Web Services 1Q12: 450,000 servers

Amazon Perdix Modular Datacenter

EC2 17K core, 240 teraflop cluster 42nd fastest supercomputer in world

450,000servers

905 billionobjects

650Kreq/sec

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What is Google? Google is not a search engine

Google is a real-time “Data Factory” ecosystem

– Defacto organizer of all human internet data

– Worldwide Patterns of Life data

– Android ingest / output devices• Motorola Wireless acquired $12B

– Supporting businesses and ecosystem roles:• Google+, Play, Shop, Books, Gmail, Docs• Voice recognition

The history of search engine http://www.wordstream.com/articles/internet-search-engines-history

Inter-

Disciplinary

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Google Data Centers

in 2008:

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Google Data Center CAPEX worldwide

• Capital expenditures on datacenters:– 1Q12: USD$ 607M– 2011: USD$ 3.4B– 2010: USD$ 4.0B– 2009: USD$ 809M

Each data center between $200M and

$600M

The Dalles, Oregon

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Part 2: Disruptive Innovation

2. Disruptive Innovation in Today’s IT World The Non-Traditional Competitor

Big Data, mobile Web 3.0

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With all this opportunity……. Why is this Disruptive Change flat-lining traditional consumer PC / desktop manufacturers?

• PC / laptop stalwarts

• Unsuccessful in shift

• To mobile

http://gigaom.com/2012/09/01/hp-dell-and-the-paradox-of-the-disrupted/

PC/laptopmarket value

big decreases

Cloud / mobilemarket value

*bigger increases*

Mar

ket

Cap

italiz

atio

n

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Observe: how fast mobile internet grows by 2014

• By 2014:

• Mobile will be main way

• Of connecting to Internet

Inter-

Disciplinary

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Disruptive Innovation

Definition:

• Create new market and value

• Eventually disrupts existing

• Displaces earlier technology

Clayton ChristensenHarvard Business School

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Disruptive Innovation

• Not “advanced technologies”

• Inferior yet “good enough”

• Novel combinations

• Starts low end

• Grows up-market– “low end

disruption”

Clayton ChristensenHarvard Business School

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Disruptive Innovation

• Learn lessons

• Watch today’s world

Illustrative examples only

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Disruptive Innovation

• “Consumerization”

• Not just technology

• Delivery models (cloud)

• Business models• Ecosystems

Clayton ChristensenHarvard Business School

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Mobile will affect all business models…

Mobile =

Geo-locational superfood

Real-time analytics

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Cloud-scale Data Centers required for: Data Supertransformagicability

TaxiWiz

HousingMaps

Source: http://mashable.com/2007/07/11/google-maps-mashups-2/

Weatherbug

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By 2016, how much mobile data? What kind?

• 2012:– Mobile-connected

devices > # people

• 2016:– 10 billion mobile devices– (world population: 7.3 B)

http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/white_paper_c11-520862.html

Smartphones 48%

Web data,video70%

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Will Big Data, Internet Cloud data centers, mobile-centric business models affect the way we compete? Implement IT?

Yes, it will!

Let’s see one more video

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Disruptive Innovation

• Big Data / Cloud on disruptive path

• Traditional IT still around but….

• Newer technologies disrupt all platforms

Clayton ChristensenHarvard Business School

What will the effect be on your business model?

Inter-

Disciplinary

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It’s NOT your Traditional competitors you need worry about

Blockbuster 2002:

“Online video not viable”

“Niche market”

2011: 24 million Netflix customers

2010: Blockbuster files for bankruptcy

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It’s NOT your Traditional competitors you need worry about

Illustrative examples only

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Today, customers have many non-traditional alternatives

Traditional alternatives:

• Other platforms

• Other vendors

• Non-traditional alternatives: – The Cloud, the Developing World

What will the effect be on your business model?

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Part 3: Principles for a successful IT Future

Plans

Meld / meet / build readiness

Use, exploit, thrive

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Big Positioning picture

TraditionalIT

Sto

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eq’d

: G

B,

TB

, P

B

$ /

serv

er,

sto

rag

e

DataWarehouse

BigData,

Internetscale

TraditionalIT

DataWarehouse

BigData,

Internetscale

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Big Positioning picture

TraditionalIT

Sto

rag

e r

eq’d

: G

B,

TB

, P

B

$ /

serv

er.

stro

age

DataWarehouse

TraditionalIT

DataWarehouse

CurrentIT

architectures

Growth areas

Mobile, Cloud

Growth areas

Mobile, Cloud

BigData

Internetscale

BigData

Internetscale

Current IT architectures

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Build new, different skill sets

TraditionalIT

Sto

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e r

eq’d

: G

B,

TB

, P

B

$ /

serv

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sto

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DataWarehouse

BigData

Internetscale

TraditionalIT

DataWarehouse

BigData

Internetscale

Current IT architectures

Traditional IT workload

Highly parallelized internet scale architecture

Integrated E2E software centric

Current ITarchitectures

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Key strategy

$ /

serv

er,

sto

rag

e

TraditionalIT

DataWarehouse

BigData

Internetscale

Current ITarchitectures Traditional IT

architectures

Internet scale architectures

• Continue modernize current traditional IT … Architect

new-gen connectors,

skills• Architect future expandability

• Connect with– New generation

mobile-enabled workloads

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To successfully co-exist / thrive with new generation workloads

• Understand Big Data / new gen workload environment

• Successfully innovate new capabilities

• Expand your understanding

• Be the change you want your company to be

$ /

serv

er

TraditionalIT

DataWarehouse

BigData

Internetscale

Views new gen as powerful

partner Traditional IT architectures

Internet scale architectures

Views traditional IT as powerful

enabler

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How to get ahead and thrive in this new world?

• 2012: devote 1st hour of day to keeping current – No longer optional

• Establish power-knowledge digital footprint, intelligently sharing what you find– Don’t email what you find (too much email

already)

– Use social networking, social bookmarking, blogs, etc

• Become a power user of your smartphone’s ecosystem

Inter-

Disciplinary

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KeepingCurrent

John Sing’sbookmarks

• My external sources, daily IT research:– http://delicious.com/atsf_arizona

– http://www.linkedin.com/in/johnsing – https://www.facebook.com/john.sing1

• IBM colleagues may also see my IBM Intranet webpage:– http://snjgsa.ibm.com/~singj/ – http://snjgsa.ibm.com/~singj/public/sonas_index.html

• singj@us.ibm.com

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Learning Points

1. Exploitation of the opportunity: Data, Data, Data! Is being done in real-time Data Factories on internet scale today

Bandwidth will continue to create “The Cloud”

Must understand and study how Internet Scale Data Center architectures house internet scale data

2. Hyper-pace of Disruptive Innovation in Today’s IT World Beware the Non-Traditional Competitor

The Mobile Web 3.0 is already impacting all business models

3. Invest your 1st hour of every day in being a part of the future Be the change you want your company to be

Inter-disciplinaryInter-

Disciplinary

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Inter-disciplinary Disruptive Innovation:

Greatest opportunity to thrive we have yet seen

$ /

s

erv

er

TraditionalIT

DataWarehouse

BigData

Internetscale

Current ITTraditional IT

Internet scale workloads

New gen workloads

Identify inter-disciplinary new generation workloads, business

models

Know non-traditional competitors well

Develop / implement to meld, meet, use, exploit, thrive with new

reality

Inter-

discip

lina

ry

Exascale datacenters

Massive parallelism

E2E automation Mobile

Big DataApplications

CloudBusiness

Models

Inter-

Disciplinary

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Together, let’s build a Smarter Planet