2013 Holiday E-Commerce Trends Through Green Monday - FINAL

© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.

2013 Holiday e-Commerce Trends

Through Green Monday

December 13, 2013

Gian Fulgoni, Chairman, comScore, Inc.

Andrew Lipsman, VP Marketing & Insights, comScore, Inc.

© comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 2

Topics for Today

• Review of Key Macroeconomic Trends

• 2013 Holiday E-Commerce Overview

• Green Monday Dynamics

• Key Holiday Themes for 2013

• Key Takeaways

• Q & A


Data sourced from comScore’s global panel of 2 million Internet users

2 Million Person Panel

360°View of Person Behavior

CENSUS

Unified Digital Measurement™ (UDM)

Patent-Pending Methodology

1 Million Domains Participating Adopted by 90% of Top 100 U.S. Media Properties

PANEL

PERSON-Centric Panel with

WEBSITE-Census Measurement

Web Visiting & Search Behavior Online

Advertising Exposure

Advertising Effectiveness

Demographics, Lifestyles & Attitudes

Media & Video Consumption

Transactions

Online & Offline

Buying

Mobile Internet Usage & Behavior

PANEL

V0411 Plus 5 Million TV Set Top Boxes for 3-Screen Measurement


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Q1'05

Q2'05

Q3'05

Q4'05

Q1'06

Q2'06

Q3'06

Q4'06

Q1'07

Q2'07

Q3'07

Q4'07

Q1'08

Q2'08

Q3'08

Q4'08

Q1'09

Q2'09

Q3'09

Q4'09

Q1'10

Q2'10

Q3'10

Q4'10

Q1'11

Q2'11

Q3'11

Q4'11

Q1'12

Q2'12

Q3'12

Q4'12

Q1'13

Q2'13

Q3'13

Validation of comScore sales data:

Comparison of comScore to U.S. Department of Commerce data

Quarterly U.S. e-Commerce Growth* vs. YA

Source: comScore & U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC)

% G

row

th v

s. Y

A

Dept. of Commerce (DOC) comScore Estimate of DOC

*Note: To be consistent with DOC, comScore estimate excludes travel and event

tickets but includes auction fees and autos.

Correlation: 0.92

© comScore, Inc. Proprietary. © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.

State of the Economy

A Review of Key Macroeconomic Trends


Desktop Retail e-Commerce has reached $148 B through Q3 2013, up

+14% Y/Y and setting up for a $200+ billion year

$42 $53 $67 $82 $102

$123 $130 $130 $142 $162

$186 $148

$30 $40

$51 $61

$69

$77 $84 $80

$85

$94

$103

$87

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(Q1-Q3)

Retail Travel

Desktop e-Commerce Dollar Sales ($ Billions) Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

$72 $93

$117

$143

$171

$200 $214 $209

$228

$289

$256 $235

Bil

lio

ns

($

)

+29%

+26%

+22%

+19%

+17%

+7%

-2%

+9%

+12%

+13%

+26%

+33%

+26%

+28%

+20%

+24% +24%

+13%

+20%

+12%

+6%

+9%

0%

-5%

+10%

+6%

+15%

+9%

+14%

+11%

+12%

+14%

+9%


Mobile commerce, when added to desktop e-Commerce, adds 1-2% of

growth each quarter (when compared to desktop-only growth rates)

$44.3 $43.2 $41.9

$56.8 $50.2 $49.8 $47.5

$4.5 $3.8 $4.6

$7.2

$5.9 $4.7 $5.8

Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013

Desktop Mobile

Desktop + Mobile Retail e-Commerce Dollar Sales ($ Billions) Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

Bil

lio

ns

($

)

$54.5 $53.3 $56.1

$64.0

$45.4 $47.0 $48.8

+21% +17% +17% +17% +15% +16% +14%


In Q3 2013, desktop e-Commerce accounted for 9.4% percent of

consumers’ discretionary spending, the highest third quarter share

on record

4.3%

3.7% 4.0%

4.6%

5.1%

4.3% 4.5%

5.3%

5.9%

5.0%

5.3%

6.4% 6.7%

5.9%

6.3%

7.4% 7.3%

6.5% 6.6%

7.6% 7.7%

6.8% 6.9%

7.7% 8.1%

7.1% 7.1%

8.0%

8.6%

7.7% 7.6%

8.9%

9.4%

8.7%

8.7%

10.0%

10.6%

9.6%

9.4%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

*Note: e-Commerce share is shown as a percent of DOC’s Total Retail Sales

excluding Food Service & Drinking, Food & Bev. Stores, Motor Vehicles & Parts,

Gasoline Stations and Health & Personal Care Stores.

Desktop e-Commerce Share of Corresponding Consumer Spending* Source: comScore for e-Commerce & U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) for Retail

e-C

om

me

rce S

hare

e-Commerce share rose +0.7 points

versus Q3 2012


About 4 in 10 consumers still rate the economy as ‘poor’ -- a level that

has not improved in three quarters

77%

68% 66% 61% 61% 59% 62% 61%

52% 59% 60% 60%

54% 49%

56%

48% 42% 40% 40% 41%

Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13

Percent of Consumers Who View The Economy as Poor

Q.How would you rate economic conditions today? Source: comScore Surveys


Did Retailers Shoot Themselves in the Foot by Opening Stores on

Thanksgiving Day?

Traffic Retail Sales

Thanksgiving & Black Friday 2.8% 2.3%

Black Friday Only -11.4% -13.2%

Holiday Forecast -1.4% 2.4%

Thanksgiving Day store openings drove traffic and sales increases

but then caused a large decline in Black Friday sales

Source: ShopperTrak

2012 Sales

$ Billions

2013 Sales

S Billions

Percent

Change

Thanksgiving Day – Cyber Monday $59.1 $57.4 -2.8%

Source: NRF

NRF Forecast for Holiday Season: 3.9% Growth

Total consumer sales were soft during the Thanksgiving holiday, in part

because of heavy price discounting and an apparent failed retailer

strategy of opening stores on Thanksgiving


online retailer sites 220 million monthly visitors 22 visits per visitor

comparison shopping sites 93 million monthly visitors 3 visits per visitor

search 226 million monthly visitors 36 visits per visitor

SOURCE: COMSCORE MEDIA METRIX MULTI-PLATFORM, US, OCT-2013

coupon sites 82 million monthly visitors 10 visits per visitor

finding the lowest price has never been easier


2013 Holiday e-Commerce Overview


Holiday Season includes November and December

* 2013 Forecast

comScore forecasts 2013 U.S. desktop e-Commerce holiday sales to

grow 14% to record $48.1 billion

$19.6

$24.6

$29.2 $28.0 $29.1 $32.6

$37.6

$42.3

$48.1 +26%

+19%

-4%

+4%

+12%

+15%

+14% +14%*

$0.0

$10.0

$20.0

$30.0

$40.0

$50.0

$60.0

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%Holiday Season $ in Billions Y/Y Growth Rates

Holiday Season Retail Desktop e-Commerce Sales ($ Billions)

Growth vs. YA Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005


2012 % Change

2012 vs. 2011 2013

% Change

2013 vs. 2012*

October $14,495 16% $16,539 14%

Thanksgiving (Nov. 28) $633 32% $766 21%

Black Friday (Nov. 29) $1,042 28% $1,199 15%

Thanksgiving Weekend (Nov. 30-Dec. 1) $1,188 15% $1,594 34%

Cyber Monday (Dec. 2) $1,465 17% $1,735 18%

Thanksgiving thru Cyber Monday $4,328 21% $5,294 22%

Green Monday (Dec. 9) $1,275 13% $1,401 10%

Thanksgiving thru Green Monday* $10,418 12% $12,937 24%

2013 shows strong online sales growth of 24% from Thanksgiving thru

Green Monday

2013 Holiday Season Desktop e-Commerce Spending ($ Millions) Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

Based on calendar year ago day

*11/28/13 – 12/9/13 vs. 11/22/12 – 12/3/12


2013 Holiday Season: where we’re at, and where it’s headed

$-

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

Bil

lio

ns

2013 Potential Spending

2013 Holiday Season Spending to Date

2012 Holiday Season Spending

In the next two weeks before

Christmas, we need to see 16%

growth to reach the 14% holiday

season target

+14%

y/y

$48.1

$42.3

Holiday Season Cumulative Desktop e-Commerce Spending in Billions

Targets Needed for 14% y/y Growth

Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement


Green Monday ranks #2 of the key online shopping days of 2013, but

overtime the season continues to be pulled forward

$776

$1,198

$1,735

$1,401

$-

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

Thanksgiving Black Friday Cyber Monday Green Monday

2010 2011 2012 2013

+91%

+85%

+69%

+47%

Daily Retail Desktop E-Commerce Sales (Millions) Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement


4 of 5 weekdays during Cyber Week hit $1B in 2013

$-

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

2-N

ov-1

2

4-N

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2

6-N

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10-N

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12-N

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16-N

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18-N

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20-N

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22-N

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24-N

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26-N

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4-D

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6-D

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8-D

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10-D

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Mill

ions

1-N

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7-D

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9-D

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2012 2013

Desktop e-Commerce Spending by Day

2012 and 2013 Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

Black

Friday

Black

Friday

Cyber

Monday

Cyber

Monday Green

Monday

Green

Monday


With the compressed holiday season, people are relying more on

online shopping during the weekend than ever before

12%

34%

16%

71%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Thanksgiving Week M - F Thanksgiving weekend Cyber Week M - F Cyber weekend

Y/Y Growth of Desktop e-Commerce Transactions – Weekdays vs. Weekends



The importance of free shipping can be clearly seen in 2013, with more

than 60% of transactions carrying free shipping each week.

52%

51%

56%

64%

59%

53%

59%

56% 56%

36%

42%

55% 57%

51%

53% 59%

54%

48%

61% 62% 62% 64%

60% 60%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

2011 2012 2013

Percentage of Desktop e-Commerce Transactions w/ Free Shipping



Green Monday Dynamics


Green Monday 2013 is the third heaviest online shopping day so far this

year, and has grown 64% since the recession

$556

$661

$881 $859 $854

$954

$1,133

$1,275

$1,401

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

19%

33% -2% -1%

12%

19%

13%

10%

Green Monday U.S. Desktop e-Commerce Spending in Millions


Y/Y % change


At-work buying remains a key driver of Cyber Monday desktop

spending, while at-home buying drives Green Monday spending

7% 6%

44% 52%

49% 42%

Cyber Monday 2013 Green Monday 2013

Work

Home

International

Green Monday Spending By Location


Total Spending: $1.74 Billion $1.40 Billion


$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

+5%

Cyber Monday’s intense promotional activity has vaulted it to #1 in

recent years, while Green Monday has settled for a spot in top 3

8

12

9

3

2

1 1 1

1 2

1 2

5

2 3 3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Sp

en

din

g D

ay R

an

k

Cyber Monday - Spending Day Rank

Green Monday - Spending Day Rank

Cyber Monday & Green Monday –

U.S. Desktop Online Spending in Millions Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement, 2005-2013

Cyber Monday & Green Monday –

Spending Day Rank Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement, 2005-2013

+12%

-1% -2%

+33%

+19%

+19%

+13%

+16%

+15%

+21%

+26%

+22%

+17%

+18%

+10%


Metric 2012* 2013* % change

Dollar Sales ($ MM) $10,418 $12,937 24%

Dollars per Buyer $163.93 $150.58 -8%

Buyers (000) 63,550 85,912 35%

Average Order Value $94.64 $85.05 -10%

Transactions (000) 110,071 152,110 38%

Transactions per Buyer 1.73 1.77 2%

Key Desktop e-Commerce Buyer and Transaction Measures

Thanksgiving thru Green Monday 2013 vs. YA Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

Sales growth between Thanksgiving and Green Monday driven by more buyers

buying more often. AOV drop caused by consumers shop across more retailers.

*e-Commerce Sales based on data for

Thanksgiving thru Green Monday,

11/28/13 – 12/9/13 vs. 11/22/12 – 12/3/12


Computer Hardware, Electronics, and Video Games are the top-

gaining product categories this season

2013 Thanksgiving thru Green Monday Desktop

e-Commerce Sales Category Growth vs. YA Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

Absolute

Dollar

Rank Product Category

Thanksgiving Thru

Green Monday*

Growth vs. YA

1 Computer Hardware Very Strong

3 Consumer Electronics Very Strong

5 Video Games, Consoles & Accessories Very Strong

2 Apparel & Accessories Very Strong

8 Home and Garden Very Strong

13 Jewelry & Watches Very Strong

6 Toys Strong

15 Sport & Fitness Strong

14 Music, Movies & Videos Strong

12 Digital Content and Subscriptions Strong

16 Flowers, Greetings & Misc. Gifts Strong

7 Event Tickets Moderate

4 Consumer Packaged Goods Moderate

9 Furniture, Appliances & Equipment Moderate

11 Books & Magazines Moderate

10 Office Supplies Moderate

Growth rate definitions:

Very Strong: +25% or higher

Strong: +18-24%

Moderate: +6-17%

*Holiday Season e-Commerce Sales based on

data for Thanksgiving thru Green Monday,

11/28/13 – 12/9/13 vs. 11/22/12 – 12/3/12

Driven by strong tablet

and mobile phone sales


Amazon, Netflix, and eBay were the most visited sites on Green

Monday 2013

Top Retail Category Sites by Number of Desktop Visits between Thanksgiving and Green Monday 2013

Ranking Retailer Property

1 Amazon

2 Netflix

3 eBay

4 Apple

5 Walmart

6 Target

7 Macy’s

8 Kohl’s

9 Best Buy

10 ToysRUs

11 Sears

12 J.C. Penney

13 Home Depot

14 Hewlett-Packard

15 GameStop

16 Liberty Interactive Corporation

17 Limited Brands

18 Newegg

19 Kmart

20 Dell

Source: comScore Custom Solutions

New sites to the

top 20 in 2013


Coupon sites are some of the most visited retail-related sites between

Thanksgiving and Green Monday

Ranking Coupon Property

1 Shopathome.com

2 MyPoints Sites

3 Groupon

4 RetailMeNot

5 Swagbucks.com

6 Coupons Inc.

7 We-care.com

8 Ebates.com

9 LivingSocial

10 Topcouponstoday.com

Top Coupon Category Sites by Number of Desktop Visits between Thanksgiving

and Green Monday 2013 Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement


People are now willing to buy more expensive products online

15 Most Expensive Products Bought Online (via the comScore Panel)

Thanksgiving thru Green Monday Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

Ranking Product Site Price

1 Princess Cut Diamond Bracelet 14kt White Gold costco.com $3,499.99

2 15-inch MacBook Pro with Retina display apple.com $2,998.12

3 Sharp 80-inch Aquos Smart LED HDTV amazon.com $2,998.00

4 Alienware 17 dell.com $2,978.79

5 Canon MP Full Frame Full-HD Video Mode Digital SLR Camera amazon.com $2,899.00

6 ThinkPad W530 lenovo.com $2,875.00

7 Michael Beaudry Diamond Cushion Halo Ring, 14K Gold qvc.com $2,452.00

8 Refurbished 27-inch iMac quad-core Intel Core i5 apple.com $2,349.00

9 Vizio 70" Class LED Smart TV w/ Theater 3D costco.com $2,299.99

10 Samsung 75-Inch Slim Smart LED HDTV amazon.com $2,273.03

11 Lane - Stanton Stationary Sofa in Brush Brown Finish yahoo.net $2,268.00

12 ThinkPad T440p lenovo.com $2,245.00

13 Metropolitan Leather Sectional and Ottoman costco.com $2,199.99

14 LG 30.7-cu ft 3 French Refrigerator Door lowes.com $2,198.00

15 Samsung - 55“ Class LED - HDTV bestbuy.com $2,099.97


Amazon Prime Air: Did CBS’s coverage give Amazon a Cyber Monday

and season boost?


Pure plays gain share on Cyber Monday and Green Monday—

helped by Amazon?

26% 35%

48% 49%

74% 65%

52% 51%

Thanksgiving Black Friday CyberMonday

GreenMonday

2012 2013

Percent Share of Desktop e-Commerce

Pure Play and Multi-Channel Retailers Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

29% 35% 47% 47%

71% 65% 53% 53%

Thanksgiving Black Friday CyberMonday

GreenMonday

Multi-Channel

Pure Play


Key 2013 Holiday Themes: The 4 S’s


Key Holiday Themes: The 4 S’s

Smartphones

Sit-Back Shopping

Social Commerce

Showrooming


As of August 2013, the digital population spends more time engaging

with Retail brands on their smartphone than on their desktop

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

To

tal M

inu

tes (

MM

)

Desktop Smartphone iPad

Total Minutes (MM) Spent in Retail Category by Platform Source: comScore Media Metrix and Mobile Metrix, U.S., Feb-2013 – Oct-2013

49% 42%

37% 43%

14% 15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Feb-2013 Oct-2013

DesktopSmartphoneiPad

Average Retail Site:

Mobile Only Unique Visitors

Incremental 34%


Retail e-Commerce Dollars Spent in Billions via Mobile (Smartphone & Tablet) Source: comScore E-commerce & M-commerce Measurement

At $5.8 Billion in Q3 2013, m-Commerce accounted for 11% of all

Retail e-Commerce – up vs. year ago, setting up for a strong Q4

$0.6 $0.8

$1.6

$2.4 $2.6

$3.5

$4.9 $4.5

$3.8

$4.6

$7.2

$5.9

$4.7

$5.8

$10.0

Q22010

Q32010

Q42010

Q12011

Q22011

Q32011

Q42011

Q12012

Q22012

Q32012

Q42012

Q12013

Q22013

Q32013

Q42013

Can we hit $10 billion

in Q4?

?


$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

Black Friday (Nov. 29) Cyber Monday (Dec. 2)

Mobile

Desktop

M-Commerce contributed an incremental 20% of dollars spent on

Cyber Monday, making it the first single day to break $2 Billion

$1,512

$2,085

21%

Mobile

17%

Mobile

Multi-Platform Retail e-Commerce Dollars Spent in Millions Source: comScore E-commerce & M-commerce Measurement


Pinterest is gaining influence as a social commerce

channel, and usage is rapidly shifting to mobile

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Desktop Mobile

Pinterest Total Unique Visitors (000) by Platform Source: comScore Media Metrix and Mobile Metrix, U.S., Jul-2012 – Oct 2013


For most consumers, showrooming remains an ‘occasional’

shopping tactic

More than 1 in 3 online

consumers have

showroomed…

However, among these

consumers, most only

showroom ‘sometimes’ or

‘occasionally’

Among smartphone

owners, usage of phones to

showroom has increased

significantly

11%

76%

11%

Only for majorpurchases

Sometimes /Occasionally

Often

34%

% who have ever showroomed

Q. Based on this definition, have you ever done this activity? (seen

an item in-store but instead purchased online)

Q. When thinking of your online shopping and the previous

questions, which statement best describes when you use

showrooming?

% among showroomers

Source: comScore Survey – July 2013

Q. Have you ever used your mobile device (smartphone / tablet) to

assist in showrooming?

41%

49%

% smartphone owners who have used theirphone to showroom

Q2 2013 Q3 2013


Key Takeaways


Key Takeaways

• comScore’s 2013 Holiday Forecast of +14% growth (16% including mobile)

is on target

• The shortened Thanksgiving - Christmas calendar presents a challenge, but thus far daily

spending growth has been strong enough to compensate

• Cyber Monday is once again the heaviest online spending day in history

with a record $1.74 B in desktop spending

• Including m-Commerce, Cyber Monday topped $2 billion

• Record spending day could have been even higher had early promotions not pulled spending

forward to the weekend

• Amazon once again led the pack on Cyber Monday, and appeared to get an additional boost

from cleverly previewing Prime Air on 60 Minutes

• Online spending during the period between Thanksgiving and Green

Monday has been strong

• Thanksgiving Day opening of retail stores appears to have backfired, and may have led to

increased online sales

• Exceptionally strong growth in weekend online sales growth suggests consumers are using

weekend buying to compensate for the shorter holiday season

• Showrooming may also be a factor in driving sales out of brick-and-mortar and into online,

particularly with the dynamics seen on the weekend this year


www.comscore.com

www.facebook.com/comscoreinc

@comScore

Please contact Irena Simakova ([email protected])

if you have any additional questions or comments.

Questions?

mailto:[email protected]

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2013 Holiday E-Commerce Trends Through Green Monday - FINAL

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