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2015 comScore Holiday Digital Commerce Trends through Green Monday_FBIC

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For info about the proprietary technology used in comScore products, refer to http://comscore.com/About_comScore/Patents 2015 Holiday Commerce Trends Through Green Monday Dec.14 December 18, 2015 Gian Fulgoni Co-Founder & Chairman Emeritus, comScore, Inc. Andrew Lipsman VP Marketing & Insights, comScore, Inc.
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For info about the proprietary technology used in comScore products, refer to http://comscore.com/About_comScore/Patents

2015 Holiday Commerce Trends Through Green Monday Dec.14 December 18, 2015

Gian Fulgoni Co-Founder & Chairman Emeritus, comScore, Inc.

Andrew Lipsman

VP Marketing & Insights, comScore, Inc.

© comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 2

By Q3 2015, Total Digital Commerce had grown to account for about 1 in every 7 discretionary dollars spent by consumers

*Note: e-Commerce share is shown as a percent of DOC’s Total Retail Sales excluding Food Service & Drinking, Food & Bev. Stores, Motor Vehicles & Parts, Gasoline Stations and Health & Personal Care Stores.

Desktop & Mobile Digital Commerce Share of Corresponding Consumer Spending*

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

16%

Digital Commerce Share (desktop + mobile)

e-Commerce Share (desktop)

11.6% (Q3 ‘14)

11.0% Q3 ‘15

13.1% Q3 ‘15 Digital’s share of consumer spending peaks in Q1 and Q4

Q1 ‘15 saw a 14.7% share, the highest ever

10.3% (Q3 ‘14)

Source: comScore e-Commerce / m-Commerce & U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) for Retail

© comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 3

2015 HOLIDAY SEASON FORECAST FOR TOTAL COMMERCE Offline (ShopperTrak) + Online (comScore)

* ShopperTrak ** comScore

***estimates

85.0%

15.0%

12.6%

2.4%

2.5%*

14.3%**

9.4%**

47.2%**

2.1%

2.2 %

1.2%

1.1%

Brick and Mortar

Total Digital

Desktop

Mobile

% of Total Consumer Discretionary***

Growth Forecast

Growth Points

+4.3%

NRF:

forecast 3.7% growth

Boston Consulting Group:

forecast 4.5% growth

© comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 4

$-

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Mill

ions

Every weekday since Thanksgiving has exceeded $1 Billion in online spend; Cyber Monday became the highest desktop spending day ever at $2.3B, +11.9% Y/Y

Holiday 2015 U.S. Desktop e-Commerce Spending by Day

Black Friday

Thanksgiving

Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

Cyber Monday

Green Monday

© comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 5

$-

$500

$1,000

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Thanksgiving Black Friday Cyber Monday Green Monday

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

+169%

+156%

+122% +48%

Thanksgiving and Black Friday have grown at faster rates over the past few years as online buying continues to get pulled forward in the season

Daily Retail Desktop e-Commerce Sales (Millions)

Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

© comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 6

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

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$60

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/2

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/28

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9 12

/30

12/3

1 Bill

ions

2015 Forecast Spending 2015 Holiday Season Spending to Date 2014 Holiday Season Spending

Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

2015 Holiday Season: desktop spend may come in slightly short of our estimate, but mobile will likely make up the difference

Holiday Season Cumulative Desktop e-Commerce Spending in Billions Targets Needed for Forecasted 9% y/y Growth

+9% Y/

Y

$58.3B

$53.3B

Currently at +5.4% y/y based on comparable shopping days

© comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 7

Season-to-date desktop sales growth was driven by an increase in buyers

$43,066

209,380

539,518

$206

$80

2.58

$45,398

227,405

584,575

$200

$78

2.57

Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

+5.4%

+8.6%

+8.4%

-2.9%

-2.7%

-0.2%

Season to Date Dec. 15, 2014*

Season to Date Dec. 14, 2015* Y/Y % Change

Dollars (MM)

Buyers (000)

Transactions (000)

Dollars per Buyer

Dollars per Transaction

Transaction per Buyer

* Based on corresponding shopping days in 2014

© comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 8

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

2-Nov-15 9-Nov-15 16-Nov-15 23-Nov-15 30-Nov-15 7-Dec-15 14-Dec-15 21-Dec-15 28-Dec-15

2014

2013

2012

2015

* Based on corresponding shopping days in 2014

Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

The importance of free shipping can clearly be seen in 2015, as a higher percentage of retail transactions have free shipping compared to previous years

Percentage of Desktop e-Commerce Transactions w/ Free Shipping

© comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 9 Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

Home, Furniture, and Apparel are the top-gaining product categories for the Holiday Season so far; many categories are seeing slower growth via desktop as buying shifts to mobile

8

7

1

4

9

14

3

18

Home & Garden

Furniture, Appliances, & Equipment

Apparel & Accessories

Consumer Packaged Goods

Event & Movie Tickets

Sports & Fitness

Consumer Electronics

Video Games

Very Strong

Strong

Strong

Strong

Strong

Moderate

Moderate

Moderate Growth rate definitions: Very Strong: +15% or higher Strong: +10-14% Moderate: +5-9%

2015 Holiday Season to Date Desktop e-Commerce Sales – Category Growth vs. YA

Absolute Dollar Rank Product Category

Season To Date* Y/Y Growth Rate

* Based on corresponding shopping days in 2014

© comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 10

TOP RETAILER MULTI-PLATFORM VISITS – 2015 HOLIDAY SEASON TO DATE

1 6 11 16

Source: comScore Custom Solutions

5 10 15 20

2 7 12 17

3

4 9 14 19

8 13 18

Apple Sites

© comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 11

During the holiday season to date*, online retail visits using mobile devices have surged, with mobile browser visits exceeding app visits

MULTI-PLATFORM

20.9B

+34% Y/Y DESKTOP

7.8B

+5% Y/Y

MOBILE

13.1B

+62% Y/Y

MOBILE BROWSER

7.2B

+46% Y/Y

MOBILE APP

5.9B

+88% Y/Y

* Based on corresponding shopping days in 2014

Source: comScore Custom Solutions

© comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 12

0% 2% 9% 0% 6% 7% 11% 4%

54% 52%

40% 36%

58%

80%

64% 60%

Thanksgiving Black Friday

Cyber Monday

Green Monday

Thanksgiving Black Friday

Cyber Monday

Green Monday

Desktop Mobile

High mobile retail visitation growth rates on key holiday shopping days could indicate a strong mobile commerce holiday season

Source: comScore Custom Solutions

Retail Category Visitation by Platform

Visits – Y/Y Growth Unique Visitors – Y/Y Growth

* Based on Corresponding Shopping Days in 2014

© comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 13

-

100

200

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/1/2

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/201

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Mill

ions

Mobile retail site visits spiked on Black Friday, while desktop visits peaked on Cyber Monday

Retail Category Visits by Platform

Mobile

Desktop

Multi-Platform

Black Friday

Cyber Monday

Source: comScore Custom Solutions

Green Monday

© comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 14

$548

$2,038

$2,586

$782

$2,280

$3,062

Mobile Desktop Total Digital

$796

$2,514

$3,311

$1,042

$2,752

$3,793

Mobile Desktop Total Digital

2014 2015

+31% Y/Y

+10% Y/Y

+15% Y/Y

Holiday Season key day online sales growth is being driven by desktop and mobile

Thanksgiving Day + Black Friday

+43% Y/Y

+12% Y/Y

+18% Y/Y

Cyber Monday

2015: 27% of Total Digital

2015: 26% of Total Digital

Note: Actual data. Previously reported mobile commerce data were preliminary forecasts.

Source: comScore Digital Commerce Measurement

Dol

lars

(MM

)

© comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 15

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Desktop sales were light so far this season (+5%), but 1 extra day vs. YA and the strength of Green Week will likely push us closer to forecast Mobile is having a larger share of digital dollars than expected this season, but mobile is more important to shopping than buying

1 comScore Forecast Holiday 2015: $70 B +14% Total Digital $ +9% Desktop $ +47% Mobile $

M-Commerce sales were up strongly Y/Y on TG, Black Fri. and Cyber Mon., accounting for nearly 30% of digital commerce sales Mobile retail visits peaked on Black Friday, while desktop visitation remains largely significant on Cyber Monday

2 TG through Cyber Monday online sales exhibited strength, while offline sales declined -10% Y/Y

Free shipping day on Friday this week will promote desktop sales growth as we approach Christmas week With the surge of online traffic and buying this holiday season, it is essential for retailers to make sure their sites and apps can keep up

3 Green Monday kicked off a week that’s likely going to bolster desktop growth rates for the season

For info about the proprietary technology used in comScore products, refer to http://comscore.com/About_comScore/Patents

www.comscore.com @comScore www.linkedin.com/company/comscore www.facebook.com/comscoreinc

Questions?

Please contact:

Irena Simakova, Vice President of Investment Research at comScore

[email protected]

© comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 17

Amazon Sites

Wal-Mart

eBay

Apple.com Worldwide Sites

Target Corporation

Best Buy Sites

The Home Depot, Inc.

ETSY.COM

Kohls Corporation

Macy's Inc.

Browser Only Browser + App App Only

Beginning in August 2015, eBay no longer included traffic from PayPal’s media property. This change resulted in a significant decline in eBay’s unique visitors, which does not reflect the performance of eBay’s branded sites/apps.

A significant percentage of top retailers’ audiences are accessing via mobile browser, while the majority of mobile time spent is via retailers’ apps

Selected Leading Retailers: U.S. Total Mobile Unique Visitors – Browser vs. App

137M 72M

68M 55M

52M 37M

23M 23M 21M 17M

28%

39%

23%

99%

35%

86%

66%

26%

42%

45%

72%

61%

77%

<1%

65%

14%

34%

74%

58%

55%

Browser App

% of Time Spent Browser vs. App

Apple Sites

Source: comScore Mobile Metrix, U.S., November 2015


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