2013 to 2040 Growth Projections Report Document

Growth Management Plan 2013‐2040 Growth Projections Report

June 30, 2014

City of Orlando Government Officials Mayor Buddy Dyer Jim Gray Commissioner, District 1 Tony Ortiz Commissioner, District 2 Robert F. Stuart Commissioner, District 3 Patty Sheehan Commissioner, District 4 Regina I. Hill Commissioner, District 5 Samuel B. Ings Commissioner, District 6 City Administration Byron W. Brooks, AICP Chief Administrative Officer

Acknowledgements Project Team Senior Editor Dean Grandin, AICP, Planning Division Manager Project Manager, Writer & Editor Paul S. Lewis, AICP, Chief Planning Manager Comprehensive Planning Studio Elisabeth Dang, AICP, Chief Planner Mary‐Stewart Droege, AICP, Planner III Colandra Jones, Planner II Michelle Beamon, Planner II Michael Mills, GIS Analyst Senior

City of Orlando 2013‐2040 Growth Projections Report

For further information, contact: City of Orlando Economic Development Department City Planning Division, Comprehensive Planning Studio P.O. Box 4990 400 S. Orange Avenue Orlando, Florida 32802‐4990

C i t y o f Or lando 2013 ‐2040 Growth Pro je c t i ons Repor t

Page I. Introduction 4 II. Past Trends 4 III. 2010 Census Summary for Orlando MSA, Orange County & Orlando 5 IV. Historic Land Area Growth 14 V. Development of City‐Wide Projections 15 ‐ City‐Wide Resident Population Projections 15 ‐ City‐Wide Employment Projections 17 ‐ City‐Wide Service Population Projections 18 VI. Methodology and Assumptions Used in Allocating Growth by Traffic Zone 19 ‐ Existing Land Use‐Utilization of CLUDB to Derive 2013 Base Data 19 ‐ Developments of Regional Impact 19 ‐ Development of City‐Wide Vacant Land Information for Residential, Non‐Residential, and Mixed‐Use Zoned Land by Traffic Zone 19 ‐ Redevelopment Analysis 20 ‐ Market Trend Analysis (Making It Realistic) 20 ‐ Population & Employment Multipliers 20 ‐ Residential Allocations by Subarea 21 ‐ Non‐Residential Allocations by Subarea 26 ‐ Service Population Allocations by Subarea 30 VII. Implications: What Does It All Mean? 32

Appendices Appendix A: Incremental & Cumulative Housing Unit Growth by Traffic Zone Appendix B: Resident Population Projections by Traffic Zone Appendix C: Office Space Growth in Square Feet by Traffic Zone Appendix D: Retail Space Growth in Square Feet by Traffic Zone Appendix E: Hotel Growth in Rooms by Traffic Zone Appendix F: Industrial Space Growth in Square Feet by Traffic Zone Appendix G: Hospital Space Growth in Square Feet by Traffic Zone Appendix H: Civic/Government Space Growth in Square Feet by Traffic Zone Appendix I: Employment Projections by Traffic Zone Appendix J: Service Population Projections by Traffic Zone Appendix K: Redevelopment Analysis Assumptions by Traffic Zone Appendix L: Current Plans & Projects List—2007 through 2014 Appendix M: 2030 Traffic Zone Maps by GMP Subarea

Table of Contents

Page 4 C i t y o f Or lando 2013 ‐2040 Growth Pro je c t ions Repor t

I. Introduction This report is intended to provide demographic, population and land use data for the City of Orlando, including historical data, past trends, comparisons to other cities and projections for the future. The historical data is derived from various sources, including the U.S. Census and the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR). The report also contains residential and non‐residential growth projections by traffic zone for the period 2013‐2040, including resident population, employment and “service” population, as well as the methodology and assumptions used to forecast this growth. These projections represent the Economic Development Department’s current best esti‐mate of when and where future growth will occur in the City for each land use category. Underlying these projections is a future land use and transportation planning philosophy that promotes a compact, interconnected, mixed use environment, thereby creating opportunities for responsible growth and ensuring a high quality of life. Orlando’s future land use concept seeks to create compact activity centers with meaningful transportation alternatives, while preserving existing neighborhoods and creating sustainable new neighborhoods. These projections, based on Orlando’s future land use concept (which is described in full detail in the Future Land Use Element), form the basis for the City of Orlando’s Growth Management Plan (GMP). The projections are used primarily for transportation modeling, particularly in support of regional trans‐portation planning efforts. The projections are also used in level of service (capacity) analyses for trans‐portation, parks, stormwater, solid waste, potable water, wastewater, fire and police, and schools. Re‐lated to these services, the projections are used in the City’s Concurrency Management System, and in budgeting and capital improvement programming. And finally, the City publishes these growth projec‐tions and other demographic information for use by individual citizens, citizen groups, consultants, and businesses. By forecasting a specific quantity of new development and redevelopment in the future, the City can ensure through the GMP and the Capital Improvements Program that adequate public facilities will be in place when that development is built. Growth projections are important to ensure that the GMP continues to reflect current development trends and economic conditions. II. Past Trends Since its incorporation in 1875, Orlando has grown significantly in terms of land area, population, em‐ployment and influence in the Central Florida region. In 1875, Orlando comprised a 1 square mile area with a population of only a hundred or so. Orlando made its first official demographics appearance in the United States Census of 1890. At that time, Orlando had a population of 2,856 persons. For com‐parison, Jacksonville was the largest city in the state of Florida with a total population of 17,201, Tampa had 5,532 persons, and the City of Miami did not yet exist. Orlando experienced a population loss in

1900 due to the great freeze of 1895, lowering the population to 2,481. However, from 1910 through 2010, the City of Orlando grew steadily (see Figure 1).

Year City of Orlando % Growth Orange County % Growth % of Orange County

Population

1890 2,856 N/A 12,584 N/A 22.7%

1900 2,481 ‐13.13% 11,374 ‐9.62% 21.8%

1910 3,894 56.95% 19,107 67.99% 20.4%

1920 9,282 138.37% 19,890 4.10% 46.7%

1930 27,330 194.44% 49,737 150.06% 54.8%

1940 36,736 34.42% 70,074 40.89% 52.4%

1950 52,367 42.55% 114,950 64.04% 45.6%

1960 88,135 68.30% 263,540 129.26% 33.4%

1970 99,006 12.33% 344,311 30.65% 28.7%

1980 128,291 29.58% 470,865 36.76% 27.2%

1990 164,693 28.37% 677,491 43.88% 24.3%

2000 185,951 12.91% 896,344 32.30% 20.8%

2010 238,300 28.15% 1,145,956 27.85% 20.8%

Figure 1—Orlando and Orange County Historical Population

Source: U.S. Census, Various Years


The pace of Orlando’s growth has fluctuated since 1890. The decades of phenomenal growth were those from 1910‐1920 and 1920‐1930, with population growth occurring at rates of 139% and 194%, respectively. After 1940, the City’s growth rate was impressive, but more moderate than during the boom years of the 1920’s and 1930’s. America’s space exploration program, in general, and the estab‐lishment of Martin Marietta’s Orlando plant in particular, spurred population growth in the 1950’s. Highly skilled engineers and technicians came to Orlando for high‐paying jobs. The 1960’s represented a period of somewhat slower growth. While Orange County’s population grew 30.65% from 1960 to 1970, the City of Orlando only gained 10,871 new residents for an increase of 12.33% during that time period. The 1968 announcement of plans to build Walt Disney World, and its opening in 1971 sparked very rapid growth in the Central Florida region in the early 1970’s. Then the 1975 recession, with its 11.1% unemployment rate, significantly slowed in‐migration. As the economy recovered, in‐migration picked up again. Growth during the 1980’s was steady, in part because of the prolonged economic stability experienced during that decade. During the early 1990’s, Orlando actually experienced a decline in population due to the closure of the Orlando Naval Training Center. However, this decline was a short‐term anomaly, and since that time, population growth within the City of Orlando has steadily increased. While population growth in Orlando has been steady, the growth of Orange County has been tremen‐dous. From 1990 to 2010, Orange County as a whole grew by 468,465 (from 677,491 to 1,145,956), while the City grew by 73,607 people (from 164,693 to 238,300). In those 20 years, Orange County’s population grew by 69.14%, while Orlando’s population grew by 44.69%. In that period, by far the larg‐est amount of population growth occurred in unincorporated Orange County as compared to the City of Orlando or the other municipalities in Orange County. Unincorporated Orange County grew by 304,352 new residents, representing 65% of Orange County’s total population growth from 1990 to 2010. Or‐ange County’s 13 municipalities grew by 164,113 new residents, representing 35% of Orange County’s total population growth from 1990 to 2010. The City of Orlando’s population growth of 73,607 represents 15.71% of Orange County’s total growth from 1990 to 2010. There was approximately 3 times more population growth in unincorporated Or‐ange County than in the City of Orlando in those 20 years. Interestingly, the amount of population growth that occurred in unincorporated Orange County in that 20‐year period (304,352) exceeded the City of Orlando’s total 2010 population of 238,300. It took Orlando 135 years (from 1875 to 2010) to grow to its 2010 population of 238,300. In comparison, unincorporated Orange County’s population grew an equivalent amount and then exceeded that amount by an additional 66,052 people in just two decades. Obviously, such rapid growth has significant impacts on the adequate provision of urban ser‐vices such as roads, water, sewer, schools, and overall quality of life.

III. 2010 Census Summary for Orlando MSA, Orange County and Orlando The 2010 Census provided a wealth of information about Orlando and Orange County. However, it should be noted that the 2010 Census did not contain detailed social and economic data. The Census Bureau did not collect long‐form survey data as was done in previous Census efforts, and so data on poverty, income and educational attainment was not collected. Instead, such information will be pub‐lished through the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey during intercensal years. According to the 2010 U.S. Census: The average household size in unincorporated Orange County was 2.64, while the comparable

household size in Orlando was 2.29. In terms of household composition, 35% of all households in unincorporated Orange County in 2010 (147,511) had children less than 18 years of age. Compara‐tively, 28.5% of Orlando’s households (29,200) had children less than 18 years of age in the year 2010. This trend has a significant impact on infrastructure and social services and particularly schools. The data infers a couple of things: first, Orlando tends to develop at higher densities, which is only logical for a center city; and second, the residential units being developed in unincorporated Orange County are probably larger and contain more families.

Orlando’s populace is relatively young, with 53.9% below the age of 34. The median age is 32.8. Orlando is growing more diverse, with a population that is 57.6% White, 28.1% Black or African‐

American, 7.5% Asian, and 6.8% “other”. 25.4% of our residents describe themselves as Hispanic (please note that Hispanic is not a race, but an ethnicity). The percentage of Hispanics in Orlando has grown significantly, from 3% in 1980 to 9% in 1990, 17.5% in 2000, to 25.4% in 2010. Based on trend data, the City believes that this percentage may top 35% by 2020.

Orlando has a relatively low percentage of home‐ownership, with 39.5% owner‐occupied units (a 1.3% decline from 2000) and 60.5% renter‐occupied units. Unincorporated Orange County’s per‐centages are almost the exact opposite – 57.8% owner‐occupied and 42.2% renter‐occupied.

The average household size of owner‐occupied units in Orlando was 2.37 persons per unit, and for renter‐occupied units that number was 2.24 persons per unit. This ratio was significantly less than in unincorporated Orange County, which had an average household size of 2.72 persons per owner‐occupied unit and 2.53 persons per renter‐occupied unit.

The following pages provide a summary of general demographic characteristics for both Orlando and Orange County (see Figure 2). This information, as well as much more detailed information down to the block group level, is available directly from the U.S. Census Bureau, via their website at www.census.gov.


Figure 2—Comparison of 2010 Census Data for Orlando Metro Area, Orange County, and City of Orlando Profile of General Population and Housing Characteristics: 2010 2010 Demographic Profile Data, U.S. Census


Figure 2 (Continued)—Comparison of 2010 Census Data for Orlando Metro Area, Orange County, and City of Orlando Profile of General Population and Housing Characteristics: 2010 2010 Demographic Profile Data, U.S. Census














IV. Historic Land Area Growth Since 1980, the City has experienced a great deal of growth in it’s land area, as the result of numerous annexations. Figure 3a is a map showing the areas where recent annexation activity has taken place. Fig‐ure 3b to the right shows the City’s growth in acres, square miles and resident population per square mile. According to this figure, Orlando’s land area increased by 45,366 acres (70.9 square miles) from 1980 to 2013. Much of this acreage can be found on the Orlando International Airport property and within the Southeast Orlando Sector Plan, and Vista East annexation areas in southeast Orlando. Because much of this land was vacant when annexed, the resident population per square mile understandably de‐creased (see 1993 to 1994). It is anticipated that the resident population per square mile for the City will generally increase as development in the annexed areas proceeds into the future.

Year Acres Square Miles Population Population Per Square Mile

1980 27,624 43.16 128,291 2,972

1985 40,454 63.21 146,491 2,318

1986 40,858 63.84 150,131 2,352

1987 43,693 68.27 154,413 2,262

1988 43,788 68.42 158,921 2,323

1989 45,175 70.59 161,051 2,282

1990 46,196 72.18 164,693 2,282

1991 46,249 72.26 168,456 2,331

1992 47,093 73.58 169,675 2,306

1993 49,255 76.96 172,019 2,235

1994 59,068 92.29 170,780 1,850

1995 60,304 94.23 170,307 1,807

1996 61,540 96.16 173,122 1,800

1997 62,784 98.10 176,373 1,798

1998 63,386 99.04 180,462 1,822

1999 64,947 101.48 184,639 1,819

2000 65,888 102.95 185,951 1,806

2001 66,816 104.40 188,494 1,805

2002 67,370 105.27 194,913 1,852

2003 68,457 106.96 201,851 1,887

2004 70,210 109.70 208,900 1,904

2005 70,280 109.81 217,567 1,981

2006 70,528 110.20 224,055 2,033

2007 71,090 111.07 228,765 2,060

2008 71,137 111.15 234,130 2,106

2009 71,140 111.16 235,758 2,121

2010 71,422 111.60 238,300 2,135

2011 71,425 111.60 241,588 2,165

2012 71,489 111.70 244,923 2,193

2013 72,990 114.05 249,925 2,191

Figure 3b—City Dimensions and Population Per Square Mile

Figure 3a.—Annexation Activity from 1980 through 2013.


V. Development of City‐Wide Projections The following projections represent the Economic Development Department’s current best assessment of when and where future growth will occur in the City. The projections take into account the recent world‐wide economic downturn which began in earnest in 2008 and which continued well into 2012. The projections also account for growth associated with the Southeast Orlando Sector Plan (including the UCF Medical School/Sanford‐Burnham Institute/medical cluster; also known as Medical City), the Vista East area, the Storey Park PD, the Millenia/Universal area, the redevelopment of the former Or‐lando Naval Training Center (now commonly referred to as the Baldwin Park neighborhood), and an‐nexations that have taken place in the past several years. Significant Downtown infill development and redevelopment, development within previously approved Developments of Regional Impact (DRIs), and other similar known projects have been incorporated into the forecast. Specific tasks related to the development of these updated projections included the creation of City‐wide population and employment control numbers, an inventory and verification of existing land use information, organization and mapping of vacant developable land information for residential, non‐residential and mixed use zoning districts, and allocation of projected growth to specific traffic zones. Each of these tasks is described below. City Wide Resident Population Projections In order to create City‐wide control numbers for use as a check against the updated small‐area residen‐tial growth forecasts developed by staff, it was first necessary to develop updated City‐wide population projections. Historical population estimates for Orange County and Orlando were taken from official U.S. Census (1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010). Non‐Census estimates for Orange County for the years 1981‐1999 and 2012‐2013 were derived from official University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Busi‐ness Research (BEBR) estimates, with the 1991‐1999 figures being adjusted by BEBR to reflect the 2000 Census estimate (BEBR Florida Special Population Reports, Number 5, April 2001). The Orange County figures for 2001‐2009 were adjusted by BEBR to reflect the 2010 Census estimate (“Revised Annual Population Estimates for Florida and Its Counties, 2000‐2010, with Components of Growth”, Special Population Reports, Number 7, May 2011). Non‐Census estimates for the City of Orlando for the years 1981‐1986, and 1989 were derived from City Planning Division estimates, while 1987 to 1988, 1991‐1999, 2001‐2009, and 2012‐2013 all represent official BEBR estimates. The 2009 estimate for Orlando was adjusted by the City to reconcile BEBR’s 2008 and U.S. Census 2010 figures. It should be noted that BEBR’s estimates for the early to mid‐1980’s over‐estimated City population. A marked decrease in City population in 1994 and 1995 was caused by the closure of the Orlando Naval Training Center. Projected population growth in Orlando was based on official U.S. Census estimates for Orange County and Orlando and the most current medium projections for Orange County , as developed by the Univer‐sity of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR), specifically published in BEBR’s “Projections of Florida Population by County‐2015‐2040”, Florida Population Studies, Volume 46, Bulle‐tin 165, March 2013. The City believes that these figures represent best available data. Since BEBR

does not provide City‐level projections, staff determined future City population by using a share of growth analysis. The share of growth analysis involved calculating the City’s proportionate share of Orange County’s population for the years 1970‐2010, then averaging the differences between these percentages. As in‐dicated in Figure 4, Orlando’s share of Orange County population has decreased by an average of 0.198 percentage points per annum between 1970 and 2010. However, since 2001, Orlando’s share of Or‐ange County population has actually grown slightly from 20.28% to 20.78% in 2013. It is anticipated that a slight percentage point increase will continue for several years reflective of growth in the Lake Nona/Medical City and Downtown area, but that after 2020 a more historical norm will return. A gen‐eral downward trend from 2020 through 2040 is expected for two reasons. First, unincorporated Or‐ange County is predicted to continue allowing substantial suburban residential growth both inside and outside its adopted Urban Service Area, in “growth centers” and rural settlement areas, and including such projects as Horizon West, Innovation Way, Lake Hart, Moss Park, Eagle Creek, Boggy Creek, Ginn DRI, and other similar greenfield areas. Second, while development in the City tends to be accom‐plished at relatively high levels of density, the land available for residential development within the City of Orlando is significantly smaller in comparison to that available in unincorporated Orange County. While Orlando’s overall share of the County population will decrease during the forecast period, it will not decrease at historic rates. If Orlando’s share of Orange County population continued to decrease at 0.198 percentage points per annum, it’s 2040 population would be 267,602 (14.88% of Orange County’s projected 2040 population of 1.798 million). In fact, using a simple straight‐line method would result in Orlando’s population “capping” at about 270,519 in 2030, and then decreasing between 2030 and 2040. However, the straight‐line method does not take into account annexations and development on vacant residentially‐zoned land. Nor does the straight‐line method contemplate significant redevelop‐ment activity in Downtown Orlando or in the areas surrounding the City’s two regional hospitals. Or‐lando’s adjusted ratio and share does consider increased land area caused by past annexation activity, including the Southeast Orlando Sector Plan, Vista East area and the Millenia East areas, along with the build‐out of Baldwin Park. A 1.58 percentage point decrease from 2013 to 2040 reflects a continued overall decrease in Orlando’s share of the County total, adjusted to reflect substantial residential devel‐opment within previously annexed greenfield areas such as Vista East and the Southeast Orlando Sector Plan areas, and high intensity infill development and redevelopment in Downtown Orlando and throughout the Traditional City. Orlando’s adjusted share of Orange County population for each five year period through 2040 served as the City‐wide control number used to verify staff’s projections. As discussed in Section VII, upon completion of residential unit allocations by traffic zone, projected growth in single‐family and multifamily units was converted to population growth in each traffic zone. This population was then aggregated to produce the City’s total projected resident population through 2040, and compared to “Orlando’s Adjusted Share” in Figure 4. Comparison of the projected popula‐tion to Orlando’s share of BEBR‐projected Orange County growth (control numbers) indicated that the staff allocations by traffic zone were within a reasonable range of the control numbers, and were thus acceptable for use as the City’s updated residential growth projections.


Year Orange County

Population

Orlando's Share

Orlando's Ratio

Orlando's Adjusted Share

“Control”

Adjusted Ratio

% Increase Per Year County

% Increase Per Year City

1970 344,311 99,006 28.75% ‐ ‐

1980 470,865 128,291 27.25% ‐ ‐ 3.68% 2.96%

1981 484,506 131,931 27.23% ‐ ‐ 2.90% 2.84%

1982 498,782 135,571 27.18% ‐ ‐ 2.95% 2.76%

1983 513,492 139,211 27.11% ‐ ‐ 2.95% 2.68%

1984 533,794 142,851 26.76% ‐ ‐ 3.95% 2.61%

1985 556,445 146,491 26.33% ‐ ‐ 4.24% 2.55%

1986 577,907 150,131 25.98% ‐ ‐ 3.86% 2.48%

1987 602,838 154,413 25.61% ‐ ‐ 4.31% 2.85%

1988 622,305 158,921 25.54% ‐ ‐ 3.23% 2.92%

1989 652,399 161,051 24.69% ‐ ‐ 4.84% 1.34%

1990 677,491 164,693 24.31% ‐ ‐ 3.85% 2.26%

1991 700,873 168,456 24.04% ‐ ‐ 3.45% 2.28%

1992 714,016 169,675 23.76% ‐ ‐ 1.88% 0.72%

1993 732,440 172,019 23.49% ‐ ‐ 2.58% 1.38%

1994 747,731 170,780 22.84% ‐ ‐ 2.09% ‐0.72%

1995 765,906 170,307 22.24% ‐ ‐ 2.43% ‐0.28%

1996 787,484 173,122 21.98% ‐ ‐ 2.82% 1.65%

1997 810,928 176,373 21.75% ‐ ‐ 2.98% 1.88%

1998 830,266 180,462 21.74% ‐ ‐ 2.38% 2.32%

1999 854,802 184,639 21.60% ‐ ‐ 2.96% 2.31%

2000 896,344 185,951 20.75% ‐ ‐ 4.86% 0.71%

2001 929,246 188,494 20.28% ‐ ‐ 3.67% 1.37%

2002 956,062 194,913 20.39% ‐ ‐ 2.89% 3.41%

Figure 4—Validation of Orlando’s Population Projections— 2013‐2040 Population Control Numbers Figure 4 (Continued)

Year Orange County

Population

Orlando's Share

Orlando's Ratio

Orlando's Adjusted Share

“Control”

Adjusted Ratio

% In‐crease Per Year County

% Increase Per Year City

2003 982,599 201,851 20.54% ‐ ‐ 2.78% 3.56%

2004 1,014,242 208,900 20.60% ‐ ‐ 3.22% 3.49%

2005 1,050,333 217,567 20.71% ‐ ‐ 3.56% 4.15%

2006 1,084,706 224,055 20.66% ‐ ‐ 3.27% 2.98%

2007 1,111,307 228,765 20.59% ‐ ‐ 2.45% 2.10%

2015 1,239,300 245,753 19.83% 262,250 21.16% 0.60% 0.99%

2020 1,372,000 258,485 18.84% 288,750 21.05% 2.14% 2.02%

2025 1,494,900 266,840 17.85% 311,500 20.84% 1.79% 1.58%

2040 1,798,400 267,602 14.88% 345,250 19.20% 1.11% 0.47%

2008 1,125,822 234,130 20.80% ‐ ‐ 0.85% 2.35%

2009 1,133,453 235,758 20.80% ‐ ‐ 0.68% 0.70%

2030 1,604,500 270,519 16.86% 325,950 20.31% 1.47% 0.93%

2035 1,703,500 270,345 15.87% 337,300 19.80% 1.23% 0.70%

2010 1,145,956 238,300 20.79% ‐ ‐ 1.10% 1.08%

2012 1,175,941 244,923 20.83% ‐ ‐ 2.62% 2.78%

2013 1,202,978 249,925 20.78% 249,925 20.78% 2.30% 2.04%


City Wide Employment Projections As with the residential projections, City‐wide control numbers for employment were developed as a check against the updated traffic‐zone specific City‐wide non‐residential growth forecasts (see Figure 5). Total Orange County Employment includes all job categories, including farm, agricultural services and mining. The 1970 through 2013 employment estimates for Orange County, as well as the 2015 to 2040 projections for Orange County, were derived from Woods and Poole—2014 Florida State Profile. The 1970‐1990 employment estimates for the City of Orlando were derived from Orlando’s 1991 GMP (as amended). Orlando’s employment estimates for 2000, 2010 and 2013 were derived from Orlando’s City Land Use Database. In developing employment control numbers for this update, the City again utilized the share of growth methodology. Orlando’s share of total Orange County employment increased slightly from 1970 to 1980, due primarily to the annexation of the Orlando International Airport. There was an overall decline in the City’s share of Orange County employment between 1970 and 2013 of 7.48 percentage points (43 years; 0.17 percentage points per year). However, Orlando’s share actually grew from 2000 to 2013 (by 1.01 percentage points). It is anticipated that Orlando’s share will grow slightly through the 2025 time period (up to approximately 29.1%), but that Orlando’s share will decrease between 2025 and 2040. Orlando’s employment population is anticipated to grow by approximately 96,000 between 2013 and 2040 primarily due to development within the Southeast Orlando Sector Plan area, which includes the Medical City area in and around Lake Nona. This area is anticipated to generate a significant number of new employees associated with the University of Central Florida’s Medical School, Sanford‐Burnham Bio‐medical Sciences Complex, Nemours Children’s Hospital, Florida Hospital, and the 1.2‐million square foot Veteran’s Administration (V.A.) Hospital, along with associated biomedical and health‐sciences related facilities. Additional infill/redevelopment is also anticipated in the Downtown, the Florida Hospital and Orlando Health campuses north and south of Downtown, and new tourism‐oriented service employment growth in the Universal/International Drive/attractions area. Finally, the Orlando International Airport is expected to more than double in terms of employees with the development of the Southern Terminal.

Year Orange County Total Employment

Orlando's Share of Orange County Total Employment

Orlando's Ratio as Percentage of Orange County Total Employment

1970 171,595 60,584 35.31%

1980 291,166 107,563 36.94%

1990 516,943 154,950 29.97%

2000 733,651 196,778 26.82%

2010 820,543 235,430 28.69%

2015 898,640 258,300 28.74%

2020 981,470 282,250 28.76%

2025 1,069,609 311,000 29.08%

2030 1,163,187 323,250 27.79%

2035 1,262,306 332,300 26.32%

2040 1,367,081 337,700 24.70%

2013 866,958 241,284 27.83%

Figure 5—Validation of Orlando’s Employment Projections— 2013‐2040 Employment Control Numbers


City Wide Service Population (Day‐Time Population) Projections Although the University of Florida’s BEBR prepares current resident population estimates for the City of Orlando, they do not prepare estimates for what the City refers to as “service population”, which in‐cludes all those people that may have an impact on City services during any given day. This “service population” (or daytime population), while somewhat difficult to estimate, is much larger than Or‐lando’s resident population and includes tourists, the homeless, and employees (over and above resi‐dent employees) that travel to and work in the City during any given day. Service population has an im‐pact on all infrastructure services, particularly Fire and Police. In determining Orlando’s service population, certain assumptions have been made. The first compo‐nent is resident population, which has already been discussed. The second component, the homeless, is a segment of the population that obviously cannot be solely accounted for by housing units, a tradi‐tional method of deriving population figures. According to the State Department of Children and Fami‐lies and the Coalition for the Homeless of Orlando, Inc., there are an estimated 6,000 to 8,000 homeless persons living in the Orange—Seminole—Osceola County area. That equates to approximately 3% of the City’s resident population. Several national surveys and studies recommend using 1% of the resi‐dent population in urbanized areas to determine the number of homeless people. Because many ser‐vices for the homeless are located in Downtown Orlando, it can be surmised that a large percentage of this homeless population is primarily concentrated in Downtown Orlando. For purposes of this analysis, an assumed percentage of 3% was applied to resident population estimates and projections in the Downtown area, and 1% for the remainder of the City to derive the number of homeless persons through 2040. Based on 2000 and 2010 Census information and the City’s Land Use Database, it was concluded that migratory farm workers were not a factor in the City of Orlando’s service population es‐timates and projections. The third major component in determining service population is the large number of tourists and busi‐ness people staying in hotels throughout the City, particularly in the Downtown, around the Orlando International Airport, and the International Drive/Universal Studios/attractions area in the southwest part of the City. For hotels, the City assumed an occupancy rate of 65% for the April 1, 2013 estimate and projection years through 2040. The occupancy rates were derived using industry information on occupancy rates and trends for the City of Orlando and surrounding areas. It should be noted that, when dealing with a 27‐year forecast period (2013‐2040), staff believes that an occupancy rate based on more “typical” circumstances should be used (based on historic trends), rather than reacting to a single event. Having said that, the significant impacts of the recent recession necessitate some adjust‐ment. The persons per unit variable was determined by splitting visitor arrivals into two categories; those that arrive by automobile, and those that arrive by air. Using Florida Department of Commerce visitor arrival estimates, it was calculated that there was an approximate 2 persons per hotel unit in Or‐lando. The final component in determining Orlando’s service population is an estimate of additional attendant employment (over and above resident employment). Based on commuting patterns, there are more

workers commuting into the City of Orlando than leaving the City during any given day. Staff has esti‐mated that 75% of Orlando residents work in Orlando, except for the Downtown area and the Orlando International Airport (OIA), where there are many more people traveling from outside the City to their workplaces. Therefore, additional attendant employment was based on 75% of the employment popu‐lation for the Downtown and OIA areas, and 25% of the employment population for the remaining ar‐eas. Finally, it should be noted that one additional component of the population was excluded from these calculations, namely inmate population. The number of inmates (486) is based on the maximum capac‐ity of Orange County jail facilities located within the City of Orlando. These facilities are assumed to be 100% occupied. However, because this population does not significantly impact municipal services such as fire and police (having already been incarcerated), they have been excluded from the service popula‐tion calculation. Figure 6 below summarizes the City’s service population projections for the period 2013‐2040. More detailed estimates and projections by traffic zone are presented in Appendix J.

Figure 6—2013 to 2040 City‐Wide Service Population

Year Resident Population

(TZ Bottom‐Up)

Homeless Population

Tourist Population

% Outside Employment

Service Population

2013 Base 249,925 2,875 24,751 87,682 365,233

2015 262,100 3,014 27,498 92,167 384,779

2020 288,652 3,353 30,711 98,770 421,486

2025 311,407 3,643 33,175 107,771 455,996

2030 325,844 3,812 34,531 111,913 476,100

2035 337,222 3,964 35,330 114,521 491,037

2040 345,067 4,066 35,525 116,211 500,869


VI. Methodology and Assumptions Used in Allocating Growth by Traffic Zone The following is a summary of the methodology and general assumptions used in allocating projected residential and non‐residential growth from the City‐wide perspective down to specific traffic zones. Although detailed information is provided for certain known projects, parcel level and infill/redevelopment assumptions are generally not included here. Such detailed information has been docu‐mented separately, and is available in the City Planning Division—Comprehensive Planning Studio. In general, the City used a “top‐down, bottom‐up” approach, using the control numbers previously mentioned as the “top‐down” component, and occupancy > structure > parcel > traffic zone assump‐tions to create the bottom‐up projections. The City’s traffic zone “bottom‐up” projections must fall be‐low the City‐wide “top‐down” control numbers in order to be considered valid. The underlying base data estimates were also cross‐checked against historical U.S. Census data to ensure accuracy. This par‐ticular validation process required multiple iterations in order to create a realistic, market‐based set of growth projections. As can be expected, this was a very labor‐intensive process. Annexations—In order to ensure that Orlando remains the strong central city of the region, its bounda‐ries must logically expand. Orlando and its surrounding suburban communities have parallel desti‐nies—they will either grow or decline together as a single economy. Orlando views annexation, particu‐larly in those areas where the City can provide the most efficient services, as being important in terms of maintaining a healthy jobs‐housing balance. It should be noted that, because predicting annexations is difficult at best, the methodology and as‐sumptions discussed below do not anticipate annexations beyond the “Projected 2013” time period. Obviously, future annexations will affect the City’s ultimate growth patterns. Because of the unpredict‐ability of annexation activity, the Economic Development Department anticipates the need to update these projections on a fairly frequent basis (at minimum, every two to three years). Existing Land Use—Utilization of CLUDB to Derive 2010 Base Data The 2013‐2040 residential and non‐residential growth projections by traffic zone are an outgrowth of the City Land Use Database (CLUDB). CLUDB contains detailed land use information by parcel (land), structure and occupancy (LSO) for the entire City of Orlando. CLUDB is a sophisticated, near real‐time land use database that is an invaluable resource for many of the City of Orlando’s planning and devel‐opment projects. The initial data collection phase of the CLUDB project was conducted between September 1991 and De‐cember 1991. Two sources of information were utilized at that time. The first was the City’s Fire In‐spection database, which contained information on commercial properties and multi‐family residential complexes. The second source was the Stormwater Utility database, which had reliable residential in‐formation. These two databases were merged to form CLUDB. The data was then confirmed through field verification. After this initial work effort, data‐entry and clean‐up of the database proceeded

through June of 1992. Since that time, CLUDB has been updated weekly via down‐loads of GIS‐parcel in‐formation from the Orange County Property Appraiser (new parcels and annexed parcels), Demolition Permit data, Certificates of Occupancy, Business Tax Receipts, field verification, and other means. CLUDB was used to derive the April 2013 Base Data that served as the starting point for preparing these residential and non‐residential growth forecasts. For residential uses, the number of existing housing units (single‐family and multifamily) was aggregated by traffic zone. For non‐residential uses, the amount of existing square feet, or rooms in the case of hotels, was again aggregated by traffic zone. The CLUDB base data, as presented in this document, was current as of April 1, 2013. Developments of Regional Impact The City of Orlando has approximately twenty approved Developments of Regional Impact (DRIs) within its corporate boundaries. These planned developments have a tremendous impact on the City’s growth projections, and in reality account for much of the anticipated development that will occur in the City during the next 27 years. The development associated with these projects has been incorporated into the City’s growth projections, consistent with the development programs shown in each DRI Develop‐ment Order. However, some adjustments were made by staff to make the projections more realistic. Some future development associated with DRIs in the City has been “spread‐out” over the 27‐year hori‐zon, based on market conditions and likely absorption by subarea. Development of City‐Wide Vacant Land Information for Residential, Non‐Residential, and Mixed‐Use Zoned Land by Traffic Zone Probable locations for future development within the City, and the likely quantity of such development, were identified by preparing vacant land charts and maps based on information obtained from the City Land Use Database (CLUDB), the City’s Geographic Information System (GIS), and Orange County Property Appraiser data. This analysis was completed for residential, non‐residential and mixed‐use zoning cate‐gories according to the City’s adopted planning subareas—Northwest, Northeast, Southwest, Southeast, and Downtown. The vacant land charts aggregated vacant land acreage information by zoning district and traffic zone. The vacant land maps showed the geographic location of each vacant parcel, again by zoning district and traffic zone. Project team members used this information to make specific projections concerning the amount of de‐velopment likely to occur on each vacant parcel. Projections were based on the zoning of the particular parcel, total acreage, the maximum density/intensity of development allowed, and a realistic intensity/density assumption based on surrounding market conditions. For instance, while the zoning of an indus‐trial parcel may permit a 0.7 floor area ratio (FAR), a lower FAR may have been applied if the develop‐ment pattern in the area had normally supported much less intense development in the past. The loca‐tion of a vacant parcel relative to other planned and existing projects, as well as the presence of known environmental constraints were also considered in projecting the site’s development potential. Such fac‐tors were carefully considered in formulating realistic forecasts for development of the City’s remaining vacant land.


Redevelopment Analysis In addition to vacant land, redevelopment potential was also analyzed. The redevelopment analysis focused on properties within the City’s Activity Centers, Mixed Use Corridors, and additional areas in close proximity to Florida Hospital Health Village and the Orlando Health (ORHS) Campus. Additional consideration was given to recognized redevelopment areas including Parramore and the South Down‐town Redevelopment Plan area. The methodology for analyzing redevelopment potential involved running a GIS/Orange County Prop‐erty Appraiser data query on all parcels within the City’s Activity Centers, Mixed Use Corridors, and the other areas mentioned above. Once that query was completed, all parcels equal to or less than 0.10 acres in size were removed. That data was further sifted by selecting all parcels with a structure value to total assessed value ratio of 0.25 and below (less than 0.25), and then removing all parcels with non‐residential or non‐commercial DOR Use Codes (including Utilities, Government/State, Recreation Build‐ing/Recreation Tracts, Parking/Service Garage, Municipal, Lease Interest, County, Communication Tower, Charitable, Religious, and Lodge/Union Hall). Then, we removed those parcels where the struc‐ture was built after the year 2000. This sifting process produced approximately 500 to 600 potential redevelopment sites. A site‐specific, contextual analysis of each those parcels was then conducted using Orlando MapWorks SL (the City’s mapping system). That analysis involved a comparison of known projects to ensure there was no potential over‐projection issues, an examination of adjacent property ownership to determine if aggregation of properties had occurred (a sure sign of redevelopment potential), and then a compari‐son of existing floor area ratios (FARs) and residential densities to the intensities and densities allowed under the parcel’s future land use designations and zoning classifications. Using this information, it was possible to differentiate and map those parcels considered highly likely, moderately likely, and less likely to redevelop, and then to make assumptions relating to timing of such potential redevelopment. This parcel‐level redevelopment analysis was utilized in the creation of the City’s traffic zone level pro‐jections of growth and can be found in Appendix K. Market Trend Analysis (Making it Realistic) The allocations of growth by traffic zone presented in this document represent the Comprehensive Planning Studio’s best assessment of future growth patterns for each of eight land use categories. Al‐though the allocations are not “market projections” in the strictest sense, they do address market trends as reflected by projects currently under construction, those with approved development plans those undergoing development review (current plans and projects), and potential redevelopment as described above. Staff analysis of such market trends included examination of permitted development projects (all sizes), recorded master plans and subdivisions, proposed and approved DRI’s and city‐wide vacant land data. Projections for DRIs have not been allocated as specifically approved in their development orders. Rather, DRI projections reflect a more realistic allocation based on staff analysis of the development

trends associated with each project. In most instances, allocations for Concurrency Management‐Priority Reservation projects were assigned within the 2013‐2017 time‐frame. However, where this re‐served growth was deemed unrealistic within the reservation time period, the allocation was distrib‐uted over later projection periods. Finally, the expertise and knowledge of staff from other Depart‐ments was called upon to determine likely development scenarios. This comprehensive review of the known development environment ensured that the growth projections were developed with deliberate consideration of realistic market trends. Population & Employment Multipliers Multipliers were developed to convert residential (dwelling unit) and non‐residential (square footage, rooms) projections into population and employment forecasts. This conversion was necessary in order to compare the “bottom‐up” traffic zone‐level land use projections against the “top‐down” City‐wide control numbers mentioned previously. Population Projections—For residential uses, the total number of single‐family and multifamily housing units in each traffic zone (existing and projected) were multiplied by standard occupancy rates (0.956 for single‐family; 0.934 for multifamily) and by variable persons per unit multipliers to determine a population for each traffic zone. The traffic zone estimates and projections were then aggregated to produce a total projected population for the City. The occupancy rates were derived from 2010 U.S. Census estimates, and are essentially an average for the entire City of Orlando. The persons per unit multipliers were derived from the 2000 U.S. Census and 2008‐2010 American Community Survey (ACS) data produced by the US. Census Bureau. However, rather than using a City‐wide average, the City’s method involved determining the persons per unit figure for each Census Tract (ranging from 1.15 to 3.29 persons per unit), and assigning that persons per unit number to the closest approximate traffic zone boundary. While the average method vs. the census tract/traffic zone specific method essentially results in the same total City resident population, it was determined that the census tract/traffic zone‐specific method provides a much more accurate and realistic picture of where the residential popula‐tion really exists within the City. As an example, the census tracts in the Downtown core have much lower persons per unit numbers than census tracts in suburban areas. Such locational differences are particularly important in terms of park and recreation planning and in school planning. The end result is a much more spatially accurate set of population estimates and projections. Employment Projections—In the non‐residential category, the amount of existing and projected square feet, or rooms in the case of hotels, multiplied first by occupancy rates and then by non‐residential square footage to employment conversion factors. Occupancy rates of 85% for office, 80% for retail, industrial, and hospital, 65% for hotel, and 50% for civic/government categories, were used for the April 1, 2013 estimate and the 2015 to 2040 time periods. The 50% rate for civic/government takes into ac‐count church properties.


The following non‐residential square footage to employment conversion factors were utilized: Land Use Multiplier Office 1 employee per 290 square feet Retail/Commercial 1 employee per 425 square Industrial 1 employee per 900 square feet Hotel 0.5 employees per room Hospital 1 employee per 230 square feet Civic/Government (non‐OIA) 1 employee per 1,430 square feet Civic/Government (OIA Terminal) 328 employees/MAP (million annual passengers) (OIA Terminal Support) 62 employees/MAP (million annual passengers) These factors were derived from Real Estate Research Consultants, Inc., 1993, A Perspective on the Mid‐Florida Regional Economy—City of Orlando Edition, and updated/revised following consultation with economist Chris Jones (formerly with MSCW, Inc.). Employment for Orlando International Airport traf‐fic zones was generated differently, using a set of multipliers based on annual passenger traffic. The OIA multipliers were provided by the Greater Orlando Aviation Authority and their transportation con‐sultant HDR, Inc., and were also used by MetroPlan for regional transportation planning purposes. Residential & Non‐Residential Allocations by Subarea The following information describes the general allocations of 2013‐2040 projected residential and non‐residential growth by subarea and MetroPlan designated 2030 traffic analysis zone (see Appendix M for maps of each subarea and traffic analysis zone). Residential Allocations by Subarea Northwest—The northwest subarea of Orlando is located generally west of Interstate 4 and north of

the East‐West Expressway and Old Winter Garden Road, and is considered a mostly built‐out part of the City. This subarea contains older established neighborhoods such as College Park, Spring Lake, Rock Lake, Lorna Doone, and Rosemont. Within these areas, residential growth consists mostly of single‐family infill, some anticipated intensification within College Park (along Edgewater Drive in particular), and additional growth in the Rosemont area. As of April 2013, the northwest area had 7,743 single‐family dwelling units and 8,181 multifamily dwelling units, with a 49% to 51% single‐family to multifamily split. A net increase of 74 single‐family homes and 1,250 multifamily units are projected between 2013 and 2040. Compared to other areas of the City, particularly the southeast and southwest, the total amount of residential growth anticipated for this subarea is fairly modest.

Northeast—Similar to the northwest area, northeast Orlando is characterized by older, well‐

established neighborhoods with a relatively small amount of vacant residentially‐zoned land.

Northeast Orlando consists of areas east of Interstate 4 and north of the East‐West Expressway, in‐cluding the Colonialtown North and South, ParkLake/Highland, Lake Rowena, and Audubon Park neighborhoods. As of April 2013, there were 6,153 single‐family homes and 5,059 multifamily homes in the northeast, representing a 55% to 45% single‐family to multifamily split. This balance of single‐family to multifamily units is considered to be close to optimum in terms of achieving liv‐ability standards. While the northeast is built out to a great extent, this area of the City also con‐tains the site of the former Orlando Naval Training Center, now known as the Baldwin Park neighborhood (Traffic Zones 614, 1014, 1015 and 1016). With the remaining development of Bald‐win Park factored in, along with other projects such Mills Park and transit‐oriented development in the Florida Hospital Health Village (i.e., SunRail), it is anticipated that the northeast area will grow by 115 single‐family homes and 3,747 multifamily units between 2013 and 2040.

Downtown—Downtown Orlando contains the core area of Orlando from Lake Ivanhoe to the north,

Gore Street to the south, Mills Avenue to the east, and the Orange Blossom Trail to the west. Downtown Orlando has undergone a tremendous resurgence in terms of residential development over the past decade, particularly in the Uptown, Thornton Park, East Central Boulevard and South Eola areas. In that time, there have been well over 3,000 new residential units built in the Down‐town area, many of which were condominium (for sale) units, or have since been converted to con‐dominium units. As of April 2013, Downtown Orlando had 1,006 single‐family units and 10,950 multifamily units, representing a 8% to 92% single‐family to multifamily split.

With the recent advent of significant high‐rise and mid‐rise developments such as Skyhouse, the Vue, and Steelhouse, and additional planned projects such as the Creative Village PD, Central Sta‐tion and the Carver Park Hope VI project, it is anticipated that Downtown Orlando will grow by 184 single‐family units and 7,043 new multifamily units during the 2013‐2040 planning period. The City’s Downtown Development Board, in its Downtown Outlook Plan, has advocated an “Uptown” or “Georgetown” type of residential district north of Colonial Drive, and increased residential devel‐opment in the South Eola area. These factors and approaches indicate an overall intensification of Downtown, as can be expected for a growing central city.

Southwest—The southwest subarea, located west of Interstate 4 and south of the East‐West Ex‐

pressway and Old Winter Garden Road has a number of older, well‐established neighborhoods in‐cluding Lake Sunset, Clear Lake, Catalina, Washington Shores, Richmond Heights and Carver Shores. Within these areas, moderate single‐family and multifamily infill is assumed. The southwest area also contains large greenfield areas where significant residential growth, particularly multifamily growth, is anticipated. As of April 2013, southwest Orlando contained 7,756 single‐family units and 31,741 multifamily units, representing a 20% to 80% single‐family to multifamily split. This large disparity in residential use type is directly related to the service nature of employment opportuni‐ties in the immediate area, including the International Drive, Universal Studios, and Millenia Mall areas. It is anticipated that there will be approximately 578 new single‐family units and 4,647 new multifamily units built in the southwest between 2013 and 2040. With those units accounted for,


the single‐family to multifamily mix is anticipated to be 19% to 81% by 2040. There is some concern that such an imbalance of single‐family to multifamily units, coupled with a predominant service economy, may have detrimental long‐term impacts on the livability of portions of the southwest Orlando area.

Southeast—Southeast Orlando, generally located south of the East‐West Expressway and east of

Interstate 4, contains a number of established neighborhoods including Delaney Park, Wadeview Park, Dover Shores, Mariner’s Village, Bryn Mawr, Englewood Park and Ventura. The anticipated residential growth in these areas will be moderate. As of April 2013, there were 16,741 single fam‐ily units and 26,734 multi‐family units located in the Southeast planning area, with a single‐family to multifamily mix of 39% to 61%.

The southeast part of Orlando also contains two large greenfield areas where significant residential development is anticipated. The first area, Vista East, consists of several large projects including Vista Lakes, Crowntree Lakes, Tivoli Woods, and the Vista Park property, all of which are located north of the BeachLine Expressway and east of Narcoossee Road. The second area consists of the Southeast Orlando Sector Plan area, which includes over 10,000 acres of property located south of the BeachLine Expressway. The largest project in this area is the +/‐7,000 acre Lake Nona DRI/PD. The City has also annexed a large piece of property east of the Central Florida Greeneway (SR 417) originally known as the Wewahootee PD but which now goes by the name Storey Park. These areas will experience by far the most housing and population growth in the City over the 27‐year projec‐tion period.

Additional multifamily growth in the southeast will be concentrated along the Semoran Boulevard, Goldenrod Road, and Conway Road corridors, particularly in the LeeVista DRI, Orlando Corporate Center DRI, and Judge Road properties. In total, all of the southeast Orlando subarea is expected to grow from 16,741 single‐family units and 26,734 multifamily units (April 2013) to 25,457 single‐family units and 45,849 multi‐family units by 2040, an increase of 8,716 single‐family units and 19,115 multifamily units in just 27 years. This translates into a residential population growth of 62,415 people between 2013 and 2040. Interestingly, the southeast represents nearly 66% of the total resident population growth anticipated for the City of Orlando as a whole.

The following figures summarize the projected single‐family and multifamily dwelling unit growth, and resident population growth, between 2013 and 2040 for each subarea and for the City of Orlando as a whole. Associated maps graphically depict single‐family and multifamily unit growth, and resident population growth, for the same time period. Please see Appendices A and B for traffic zone specific residential and population projections.

Figure 7—Summary of Single‐Family Residential Unit Growth by Subarea from 2013 to 2040

April 2013 2040 Change/Growth 2013‐2040 (Units)

Change/Growth 2013‐2040 (%)

Northwest 7,743 7,817 +74 +0.96%

Northeast 6,153 6,268 +115 +1.87%

Downtown 1,006 1,190 +184 +18.29%

Southwest 7,756 8,334 +578 +7.45%

Southeast 16,741 25,457 +8,716 +52.06%

Orlando Total 39,399 49,066 +9,667 +24.54%

Figure 8—Summary of Multifamily Residential Unit Growth by Subarea from 2013 to 2040

April 2013 2040 Change/Growth 2013‐2040 (Units)


Northwest 8,181 9,431 +1,250 +15.28%

Northeast 5,059 8,806 +3,747 +74.07%

Downtown 10,950 17,993 +7,043 +64.32%

Southwest 31,741 36,388 +4,647 +14.64%

Southeast 26,734 45,849 +19,115 +71.50%

Orlando Total 82,665 118,467 +35,802 +43.31%


Figure 9—Existing and Projected Single Family Housing Unit Distribution, 2013 and 2040

Figure 9 depicts existing single family development as of April 2013, as compared to projected cumulative growth in single family units. In particular, this figure indicates which areas have, or are projected to have, a higher concentration of single‐family units as compared to other areas (distribution).

Existing single‐family units are

concentrated in the older, cen‐tral part of the City and in the inner‐ring suburbs (the areas developed in the 1950’s to 1980’s).

Significant single‐family growth

is anticipated within the Vista East area, the Southeast Or‐lando Sector Plan area, and the Storey Park PD area south of the Beachline Expressway (SR 528) and east of the Central Florida Greeneway (SR 417).


Figure 10—Existing and Projected Multifamily Housing Unit Distribution, 2013 and 2040

Figure 10 depicts existing multi‐family development as of April 2013, as compared to projected cumulative growth in multi‐family units. In particular, this figure indicates which areas have, or are projected to have, a higher concentration of multi‐family units as compared to other areas (distribution).

Existing multifamily develop‐

ment is concentrated along the Kirkman Road corridor, Semo‐ran Boulevard corridor, and in the Rosemont area.

Significant multifamily growth

is anticipated along the Kirk‐man Road corridor, Millenia/Conroy Road interchange area, Downtown, and the Southeast Orlando Sector Plan Area. In particular, it is projected that the area immediately surround‐ing the Medical City at Lake Nona will experience substan‐tial multifamily residential growth.

Moderate multifamily growth is

anticipated within Southport, portions of MetroWest, and the Semoran Boulevard corridor.


Figure 11—Existing and Projected Population Distribution, 2013 and 2040

Figure 11 depicts existing resi‐dent population as of April 2013, as compared to projected cumulative growth in popula‐tion through 2040. In particu‐lar, this figure indicates which areas of the City have, or are projected to have, a higher con‐centration of population as compared to other areas of the City (distribution).

Existing population is located

within the center city zones and inner‐ring suburbs, and along the Semoran Boulevard and Kirkman Road corridors.

Significant population growth is

anticipated within Baldwin Park, Vista East, the Millenia/Conroy Road area, Downtown, and the Southeast Orlando Sec‐tor Plan area, particularly in Lake Nona, LaVina and East Park. By far, the largest amount of population growth in the City will occur in the Southeast Orlando Sector Plan area over the next 27 years.

Moderate population growth is

anticipated in Metrowest, Southport, the Kirkman Road corridor, the Semoran Boule‐vard corridor, and the Conway Road/Judge Road area (LeeVista).


Non‐Residential Allocations by Subarea—The non‐residential growth projections identify anticipated development for office, retail, hotel, industrial, hospital, and civic/government land uses. It should be noted that civic/government space includes the square footage of Orlando’s many churches. In previ‐ous Growth Projections reports (prior to 2002), such uses were omitted. Therefore, it may be difficult to make a direct comparison between this set of projections and pre‐2002 data sets for the civic/government category. Growth in government office space, such as City Hall or the Orange County Ad‐ministration Center, has also been included within the office land use estimates and allocations to more accurately reflect its traffic impact characteristics. Northwest—The northwest subarea includes established businesses along West Colonial Drive, Sil‐

ver Star Road and North Orange Blossom Trail, the College Park commercial area, the Dr. Phillips area, and a substantial inventory of industrial areas. Annexation activity in the past decade and a half greatly increased the amount of industrial and office square footage found in the northwest, particularly in areas along North Orange Blossom Trail, Shader Road and Silver Star Road. Because this area is close to built out, and because of its geographic size in relation to other subareas, staff believes that non‐residential growth in this subarea will be moderate, particularly in the office and retail sectors. The most significant retail development will occur at the intersection of John Young Parkway and Princeton Street (Princeton Promenade and Princeton Retail). Industrial growth will be moderate as well, however, it is likely that additional annexations of previously developed indus‐trial properties may continue to occur. No hospital or hotel growth is projected in this subarea. In fact, our projections assume the redevelopment of the old Ambassador Hotel sometime in the next 10 years resulting in a reduction of hotel rooms and increase in office and retail at that location. In

terms of civic/government space, the most significant projects include the expansion of the Orlando Science K‐8. Employment in the northwest subarea is expected to increase by 2,141 people, from 30,311 in 2013 to 32,452 in 2040, representing a 7.06% increase during the 27‐year projection pe‐riod.

Northeast—The northeast subarea is characterized by large areas of established businesses along

East Colonial Drive and Mills Avenue, where significant opportunities for infill and redevelopment such as the Mills Park PD exist. It is anticipated that retail redevelopment will occur along Colonial Drive, particularly those commercial properties adjacent to the Orlando Executive Airport and con‐trolled by the Greater Orlando Aviation Authority. Additional redevelopment is anticipated along the Virginia Drive and Alden Road corridors, as well as redevelopment/intensification of the Fashion Square Mall site. The northeast area also contains the Florida Hospital Health Village DRI, which is home to one of Orlando’s four SunRail stations, where additional retail, hotel, and a significant amount of medical office and hospital growth is projected. Employment in the northeast subarea is expected to increase by 9,802 people, from 37,545 in 2013 to 46,627 in 2040, representing a 24.19% increase during the 27‐year projection period.

Downtown—The Downtown Orlando subarea is characterized by the highest intensities of develop‐

ment found anywhere in the Central Florida region. The subarea also has the potential to accom‐modate a significant amount of vertical development. Based on the Downtown DRI and market trend analysis, staff has projected a significant amount of development and redevelopment in the Downtown area, both within the Central Business District and within the supporting areas north of Colonial Drive and west of Interstate 4. Downtown Orlando is home to two SunRail stations (the Church Street Station and Lynx Central Station), where transit‐oriented development is already un‐der construction. It is anticipated that Downtown Orlando will experience growth totaling 2.6 mil‐lion office square feet, 600,000 retail square feet, 1,175 hotel rooms, and 1.5 million square feet of civic/government space during the next 27 years. It is also projected that industrial space will de‐crease by approximately 60,000 square feet during that same time period. Further, hospital space will decrease by 233,000 square feet with the redevelopment of the Lucerne Hospital site into a mixed use project. Major planned projects include the Creative Village PD, Central Station (formerly known as CenterPlace), Orlando Magic Sports & Entertainment District, and the Dr. Phillips Perform‐ing Arts Center. Employment in the Downtown subarea is expected to increase by 8,862 people, from 54,838 in 2013 to 63,700 in 2040, representing a 16.16% increase during the upcoming 27‐year projection period.

Southwest—The southwest subarea includes the Kirkman Road and International Drive areas, Uni‐

versal Studios, the MetroWest DRI, the Orlando Health (ORHS) DRI hospital campus, the Millenia Mall and surrounding commercial properties, along with additional neighborhood and community commercial districts serving existing residential areas. This area has a high concentration of tourist/service sector jobs, and a huge number of existing and projected hotel rooms. There are currently 12,067 hotel rooms in this part of the City, with an additional 3,524 rooms projected over the next

Figure 12—Summary of Resident Population Growth by Subarea from 2013 to 2040 (“Bottom‐Up” from Traffic Zones)

April 2013 2040 Change/Growth 2013‐2040 (People)


Northwest 33,433 36,144 +2,711 +8.11%

Northeast 22,601 30,066 +7,465 +33.03%

Downtown 18,846 30,783 +11,937 +63.33%

Southwest 82,263 92,945 +10,682 +12.99%

Southeast 92,714 155,129 +62,415 +67.32%

Orlando Total 249,857 345,067 +95,210 +38.11%


27 years. Most of these rooms are or will be located along International Drive, or on/near Universal Studios. Some office and retail growth is anticipated within the MetroWest and Millenia DRI’s. Ad‐ditional retail space will be developed in projects directly surrounding the Millenia DRI. It is also an‐ticipated that the Universal Studios complex will continue to expand during the projection period. Industrial space will also grow, with a great deal of that growth occurring in the Crownpointe Center area. Based on the master plan for the Orlando Health DRI hospital campus (home of the City’s fourth SunRail station), and infill development/redevelopment envisioned in the South Downtown Redevelopment Plan, it is anticipated that hospital space will grow by over 500,000 square feet and office space in the hospital area will grow by approximately 2.6 million square feet during the plan‐ning period. Civic/government growth will consist of church and school expansions and the devel‐opment of a new elementary school in the Wesco Square PD. Employment in the southwest su‐barea is expected to increase by 14,815 jobs, from 69,277 in 2013 to 84,092 in 2040, representing a significant 21.39% increase during the 27‐year projection period.

Southeast—The southeast is geographically the largest of the subareas, and contains both well‐

established business areas along South Orange Avenue, Michigan Street, Curry Ford Road and Se‐moran Boulevard, as well as large greenfield areas where significant non‐residential development is anticipated over the next 27 years. The southeast includes the Orlando International Airport (OIA), which is projected to expand by millions of square feet with the addition of a new southern terminal and support aviation facilities. The OIA acts as a center/magnet for numerous industrial, ware‐house/distribution and office uses. There are nearly a dozen DRI‐level projects centered around the OIA, including LeeVista, Airport Lakes, Semoran Commerce Center, Lake Nona, Vista Park, Airport Industrial Park Orlando, along with several sub‐DRI level projects. A medical services cluster known as the Medical City is underway within Lake Nona, which is the home of the developing UCF Medical School, Sanford‐Burnham Institute for Biomedical Research, Nemours Children’s Hospital (2012 opening), and VA hospital (2015 opening). The amount of non‐residential growth anticipated in the southeast is truly phenomenal, amounting to more than 7.8 million square feet of office, 6.4 million square feet of retail space, 3,300 hotel rooms, 11.3 million square feet of industrial space, 1.5 mil‐lion square feet of hospital space, and 6.8 million square feet of civic/government space. Much of this growth will occur within the Southeast Orlando Sector Plan area, which is located south of the BeeLine Expressway, south and east of the OIA. Employment in the southeast subarea is expected to increase by 61,265 people, from 49,313 in 2013 to 110,578 in 2040, representing an astounding 124.24% increase during the 27‐year projection period.

The following figures summarize projected office, retail, hotel, industrial, hospital, and civic/government growth, and employment growth, between 2013 and 2040 for each sub‐area and for the City of Orlando as a whole. Associated maps graphically depict employment growth for the same time period. Please see Appendices C‐I for traffic zone specific non‐residential and employment projections.

Figure 13—Summary of Office Space Growth by Subarea from 2013 to 2040

April 2013 (Sq. Ft.)

2040 (Sq. Ft.)

Change/Growth 2013‐2040 (Sq.Ft.)


Northwest 3,043,280 3,254,890 +211,610 +6.95%

Northeast 5,360,832 7,086,237 +1,725,405 +32.19%

Downtown 15,791,820 18,424,980 +2,633,160 +16.67%

Southwest 7,491,528 10,144,979 +2,653,451 +35.42%

Southeast 3,795,676 11,649,161 +7,853,485 +206.91%

Orlando Total 35,483,136 50,560,247 +15,077,111 +42.49%

Figure 14—Summary of Retail Space Growth by Subarea from 2013 to 2040


2040 (Sq. Ft.)



Northwest 3,786,762 4,468,940 +682,178 +18.02%

Northeast 5,477,356 5,943,163 +465,807 +8.50%

Downtown 2,266,619 2,863,409 +596,790 +26.33%

Southwest 13,084,166 15,166,040 +2,081,874 +15.91%

Southeast 4,909,692 11,332,454 +6,422,762 +130.82%

Orlando Total 29,524,595 39,774,006 +10,249,411 +34.72%


Figure 17—Summary of Hospital Space Growth by Subarea from 2013 to 2040


2040 (Sq. Ft.)



Northwest 310,897 310,897 0 0%

Northeast 2,654,218 3,494,218 +840,000 +31.65%

Downtown 256,240 22,260 ‐233,980 ‐91.31%

Southwest 1,903,874 2,420,052 +516,178 +27.11%

Southeast 704,739 2,202,301 +1,497,562 +212.50%

Orlando Total 5,829,968 8,449,728 +2,619,760 +44.94%

Figure 15—Summary of Hotel Room Growth by Subarea from 2013 to 2040

April 2013 (Rooms)

2040 (Rooms)

Change/Growth 2013‐2040 (Rooms)


Northwest 946 792 ‐154 ‐16.28%

Northeast 366 755 +389 +106.28%

Downtown 1,698 2,873 +1,175 +69.20%

Southwest 12,067 15,591 +3,524 +29.20%

Southeast 3,962 7,316 +3,354 +84.65%

Orlando Total 19,039 27,327 +8,288 +43.53%

Figure 16—Summary of Industrial Space Growth by Subarea from 2013 to 2040


2040 (Sq. Ft.)



Northwest 13,456,745 13,745,682 +288,937 +2.18%

Northeast 1,915,066 1,964,411 +49,345 +2.58%

Downtown 1,743,669 1,683,135 ‐60,534 ‐3.47%

Southwest 12,312,582 12,454,831 +142,249 +1.16%

Southeast 12,616,731 23,906,450 +11,289,719 +89.48%

Orlando Total 42,044,793 53,754,509 +11,709,716 +27.85%

Figure 18—Summary of Civic/Government Space Growth by Subarea from 2013 to 2040


2040 (Sq. Ft.)



Northwest 2,610,713 2,694,505 +83,792 +3.21%

Northeast 1,339,636 1,500,871 +161,235 +12.04%

Downtown 3,696,504 5,143,905 +1,447,401 +39.16%

Southwest 3,435,370 3,585,331 +149,961 +4.37%

Southeast 7,617,885 14,445,538 +6,827,653 +89.63%

Orlando Total 18,700,108 27,370,150 +8,670,042 +46.36%


Figure 19—Existing and Projected Employment Distribution, 2013 and 2040

Figure 19 depicts existing employment as of April 2013, as compared to pro‐jected cumulative growth in employment through 2040. In particular, this figure iden‐tifies which areas of the City have, or are projected to have, higher concentrations of employment as compared to other areas of the City.

Existing employment is lo‐

cated throughout the City, with particular concentra‐tions in the Downtown, in the attractions area along International Drive and Uni‐versal, and around the Or‐lando International Airport.

Significant growth in em‐

ployment is expected in the Downtown and Universal/Millenia areas, and most es‐pecially in the Southeast Or‐lando Sector Plan—Medical City/Orlando International Airport area.


Service Population Allocations by Subarea As mentioned previously, the City has determined the need to track “service population”, which in‐cludes all those people that may have an impact on City services during any given day. This “service population” (or daytime population), while somewhat difficult to estimate, is much larger than Or‐lando’s resident population and includes tourists, the homeless, and employees (over and above resi‐dent employees) that travel to and work in the City during any given day. Service population has an im‐pact on all infrastructure services, particularly Fire and Police. While growth is anticipated in all subar‐eas, as with population and employment, it is anticipated that the greatest amount of service popula‐tion growth will occur in the southeast subarea. The following figures summarize projected service population growth between 2013 and 2040 for each sub‐area and for the City of Orlando as a whole. Associated maps graphically depict service population growth for the same time period. Please see Appendix J for traffic zone specific service population pro‐jections.

Figure 21—Summary of Service Population Growth by Subarea from 2013 to 2040 (“Bottom‐Up” from Traffic Zones)

April 2013 2040 Change/Growth 2013‐2040


Northwest 42,579 45,648 +3,069 +7.21%

Northeast 32,687 43,001 +10,314 +31.55%

Downtown 62,750 83,216 +20,466 +32.62%

Southwest 116,095 135,168 +19,073 +16.43%

Southeast 111,122 193,836 +82,714 +74.44%

Orlando Total 365,233 500,869 +135,636 +37.14%

Figure 20—Summary of Employment Growth by Subarea from 2013 to 2040 (Bottom‐Up by Traffic Zone)

April 2013 (Employees)

2040 (Employees)

Change/Growth 2013‐2040 (Employees)


Northwest 30,311 32,452 +2,141 +7.06%

Northeast 37,545 46,627 +9,082 +24.19%

Downtown 54,838 63,700 +8,862 +16.16%

Southwest 69,277 84,092 +14,815 +21.39%

Southeast 49,313 110,578 +61,265 +124.24%

Orlando Total 241,284 337,449 +96,165 +39.86%


Figure 22 depicts existing service population as of April 2013, as compared to projected cumula‐tive growth in service population through 2040. In particular, this figure indicates which areas have a higher concentration of service population as compared to other areas of the City (distribution).

Significant growth in service

population is expected in the Universal/Millenia area, and most especially in the Southeast Orlando Sector Plan—Medical City/Orlando International Air‐port area.

Figure 22—Existing and Projected Service Population Distribution, 2013 and 2040


VII. Implications: What Does It All Mean? The City of Orlando, along with Orange County and the remainder of the Central Florida region, will continue to grow at a relatively steady rate over the next 27 years. The City of Orlando will grow in terms of population and employment throughout the City, including the intensification of our Down‐town, the completion of the redevelopment of the former Orlando Naval Training Center into a mature mixed‐use neighborhood, the continued development of the tourist/attractions area in the southwest, and in large greenfield areas such as Vista East and the Southeast Orlando Sector Plan–Lake Nona/Medical City area. Measuring Land Use Intensity: Per Square Mile Trend Comparisons Population and employment per square mile is one indicator of intensity and compactness. It is esti‐mated that Orlando will grow more dense and intense over the next three decades. In 1980, Orlando had 2,972 residents per square mile, and 2,492 employees per square mile. As a comparison, in 1980, Orange County as a whole had 471 residents per square mile and 291 employees per square mile. Obvi‐ously, Orange County was far less intense than the central city of the region at that time, containing large expanses of rural, undeveloped and environmentally sensitive lands. Because of significant annexation activity in the 1980s and 1990s (including the Orlando International Airport and Lake Nona DRI property), Orlando’s population and employment per square mile figures declined through the late 1990s. However, based on the projections previously discussed, and further assuming that Orlando’s land area will continue to grow at a rate similar to that which occurred during the past 20 years, it is estimated that Orlando’s resident population per square mile figure will increase from 2,191 in 2013 to 2,747 in 2040. A similar increase on the employment side is anticipated, ranging from 2,116 employees per square mile in 2013 to 2,686 employees per square mile in 2040. This represents a 25% increase in population per square mile and 27% increase in employment per square mile during the 27 year projection period. If Orlando’s land area remains steady from 2013 to 2040, with no large annexations taking place, the percentage increases will be much higher. However, by assuming some annexations will take place, a more realistic projection of population and employment intensity can be made. The annexation as‐sumptions should be considered a “best guess” at this moment in time. Numerous factors may affect the actual growth of the City, including changes in Florida law, interlocal agreements, and the hard to predict results of annexation referenda. Orange County’s overall land use intensity (including all of its municipalities) will also increase fairly sig‐nificantly from 1,203 residents per square mile and 867 employees per square mile in 2013 to 1,798 residents per square mile and 1,367 employees per square mile in 2040. This represents a 50% increase in population per square mile and 58% increase in employment per square mile during the 27 year pro‐jection period. With Orange County, the intensity calculations are somewhat easier because the County

has a defined geographic boundary that is unlikely to change, although its Urban Service Area boundary has expanded significantly and apparently will continue to expand well into the future. Figure 23 sum‐marizes Orlando’s and Orange County’s estimated dimensions, population and employment, along with population and employment per square mile calculations. Sustainable Land Use Composition While we have developed numerical projections of growth, consideration must also be given to the im‐pact of that growth on land use, transportation, the provision of urban services, sustainability and qual‐ity of life. From a pure numbers perspective, we know that the City will need to invest in infrastructure and ser‐vices through the Capital Improvements Program and Operating Budget to keep up with demand. In the short term, some strain will be felt by the Fire and Police Departments as development in the southeast area accelerates. The City may need to consider further decentralization in order to meet future demand and to create economy of service. With good planning, the City should be able to meet these future needs. The City’s Growth Management Plan promotes a unified land use/transportation system that places equal importance on automobiles, transit, bikes, and pedestrians. In the City’s highest projected growth areas—particularly Downtown and the Southeast Orlando Sector Plan/Lake Nona/Medical City area—the concepts of Smart Growth and the New Urbanism form the underlying principles for future development. These principles focus on a fine grain mix of land use, multi‐modal transportation solu‐tions that are bicycle and pedestrian‐friendly, protection of important environmental features, the pro‐vision and proper siting of open space and parks, and the celebration of the public realm. By utilizing these concepts, growth will be directed in a responsible, sustainable manner. The City has developed a sustainability indicator to measure the composition of land use, and in par‐ticular the residential/non‐residential land use relationship. The Population to Employment Sustainabil‐ity (PES) Ratio is a measure which indicates the relationship between resident population and attendant employment. A 1.0 ratio indicates an equivalent (1:1) relationship between housing/population and non‐residential land uses (office, retail, industrial, hotel, hospital, civic/government)/employment, and would theoretically indicate an almost perfect composition of mix (land use). From a theoretical or modeling standpoint, a perfect 1:1 land use relationship could translate into significantly lower Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) daily trip figures, having a positive impact on traffic congestion, air pollution, and other livability issues. It should be noted that Orlando’s PES Ratio is not the same as the more commonly reported Employ‐ment/Population (E/P) Ratio, the percentage of the working age population (15 years of age and above, and below 65 years of age) which is employed. The City believes that the PES Ratio will be more useful in tracking the somewhat complex land use composition issue.

Orange County Orlando


Acres Sq. Miles Resident Population

Employment Resident Pop Per Sq. Mile

Employment Per Sq. Mile

Population to Employment Sustainability (PES) Ratio

Sq. Miles Resident Population

Employment Resident Pop Per Sq. Mile

Employment Per Sq. Mile

Population to Employment Sustainability (PES) Ratio

Estimates

1980 27,624 43.16 128,291 107,563 2,972 2,492 0.84 1,000.00 470,865 291,166 471 291 0.62

1990 46,196 72.18 164,693 154,950 2,282 2,147 0.94 1,000.00 677,491 516,943 678 517 0.76

2000 65,888 102.95 185,951 196,778 1,806 1,911 1.06 1,000.00 896,344 733,651 896 734 0.82

2010 71,422 111.60 238,300 235,430 2,135 2,110 0.99 1,000.00 1,145,956 820,543 1,146 821 0.72

Projections

2015 74,900 117.03 262,100 258,060 2,240 2,205 0.98 1,000.00 1,239,300 898,640 1,239 899 0.73

2020 77,800 121.56 288,652 281,959 2,375 2,319 0.98 1,000.00 1,372,000 981,470 1,372 982 0.72

2025 79,500 124.22 311,407 310,733 2,507 2,501 1.00 1,000.00 1,494,900 1,069,609 1,495 1,070 0.72

2030 80,400 125.63 325,844 323,110 2,594 2,572 0.99 1,000.00 1,604,500 1,163,187 1,605 1,163 0.73

2035 80,400 125.63 337,222 332,116 2,684 2,644 0.99 1,000.00 1,703,500 1,262,306 1,704 1,262 0.74

2040 80,400 125.63 345,067 337,449 2,747 2,686 0.98 1,000.00 1,798,400 1,367,081 1,798 1,367 0.76

2013 72,990 114.05 249,925 241,284 2,191 2,116 0.97 1,000.00 1,202,978 866,958 1,203 867 0.72

Figure 23—Orlando & Orange County Dimensions, Population and Employment, and Population to Employment (PES) Sustainability Ratio


Figure 23 on the previous page demonstrates Orlando’s and Orange County’s estimated dimensions, population, and employment, including population and employment per square mile, along with the Population to Employment Sustainability (PES) Ratio for both Orlando and Orange County. While subjective, the City believes that a range of 25% to 30% on either side of 1 (0.70 to 1.30) would indicate a fairly healthy PES ratio. Orlando’s “macro” PES ratio shows a trend change of 0.84 in 1980, to 1.06 in 2000, with a decline to 0.99 in 2010 caused mainly by an extremely strong housing market (at least through 2006). Based on our projections of population and employment, it appears that the City will maintain an extremely healthy PES ratio of between 0.98 and 1.00 throughout the 27‐year projection period. Orange County’s “macro” PES ratio indicates a trend change from 0.62 in 1980, to 0.82 in 2000, a similar decline from 2000 to 2010 to 0.70 (again, caused by the strong 2000 to 2006 housing market), with a projected increase to 0.76 by 2040. It appears that the population side of Orange County’s land use composition/mix will remain dominant throughout the 27 year projection period. While sub‐jective, it appears that Orange County as a whole (including all of its municipalities) will grow some‐what closer to the optimum 1:1 PES ratio over time. Additional employment growth above that cur‐rently projected would be necessary in order for the County as a whole to move even closer to the optimum PES ratio score of 1 over the next three decades. The PES Ratio can be used on the macro scale to study the entire City or County, at a district scale, a neighborhood scale, or at a micro scale to study the impacts of individual projects on the long‐term sustainability of the City. The City hopes to be able to use the PES ratio as one tool to examine the ramifications of new development. One interesting precinct of the City of Orlando, which contains two major employment generators, is the Southeast Orlando Sector Plan‐Medical City/Orlando International Airport (OIA) area. Located south of the Beachline Expressway (SR 528), this area includes Lake Nona’s Medical City, a major emerging bio‐medical research cluster as well as the OIA. OIA is the largest airport in Florida (over 13,429 acres in size), and it is the 3rd largest airport in the United States in terms of land area. OIA ranks #13 in the United States and #27 in the world in terms of airline passenger traffic (approximately 35 million passengers per year). This area, which covers more than 20,000 acres inclu‐sive of and surrounding OIA, will experience by far the most development growth in the City over the next 27 years. Combined, it is projected that this area will contain approximately 11,070 single‐family homes and 14,772 multifamily units, 6.4 million square feet of office space, 4.7 million square feet of retail space, 2,833 hotel rooms, 17.9 million square feet of industrial space, 2.1 million square feet of hospital space, and 12.6 million square feet of civic/government space by 2040. By 2040, the Southeast Orlando Sector Plan‐Medical City/OIA district will have approximately 60,600 residents and 75,100 employees, representing a PES ratio of 1.23, which falls well within the subjec‐tively “healthy” range mentioned previously. Based on these figures, it may be appropriate for the

City to consider land use alternatives which could increase the number of residential units in close proximity to the major employment generators within the district such as the Lake Nona town center. Existing neighborhoods can also be analyzed and compared. For example, one could compare an ur‐ban core neighborhood such as Colonialtown (both North and South) to a suburban neighborhood such as MetroWest. The Colonialtown neighborhood just east of the Downtown core was platted in the early part of the 20th Century and has since grown into a mature mixed use neighborhood. As of April 2013, it had approximately 4,551 residents and 3,585 jobs, which equates to a PES ratio of 0.79, well within the optimum 0.70 to 1.30 range. In comparison, the MetroWest neighborhood, which was developed primarily in the 1980’s through today as a conventional suburban development, has a PES ratio of 0.32 (20,559 residents and 6,520 jobs as of April 2013). It appears that the conventional suburban development pattern has resulted in a neighborhood which is well below the optimum for sustainability. Having said that, the residential and non‐residential growth projections presented in this document for the MetroWest neighborhood indicate that the PES ratio will increase from 0.32 today to 0.38 in 2040 as the result of intensification/additional growth in non‐residential land use categories. This may be an example of the natural maturation of new neighborhoods, with residential development preceding commercial development. Finally, individual projects can be examined. The Mills Park Planned Development (PD) in northeast Orlando is an urban infill/redevelopment project which was under construction as of the writing of this report. The site, formerly known as Mills/Nebraska, was originally the home of an operating lum‐beryard with a small retail shop‐front. Over the years, the site became dilapidated and the land to building values declined to the point where redevelopment was justified. In 2007, the City approved the Mills Park PD (subsequently amended in 2012) with a development program consisting of 310 multifamily units, 177,350 office square feet, and 72,000 retail square feet. This development pro‐gram is projected to generate 560 residents and 655 jobs, for a PES ratio of 1.17. From a land use sus‐tainability standpoint, this is an excellent example of a well‐balanced urban infill project. While the City does not believe that the PES Ratio should necessarily be used to regulate land devel‐opment, it does have marked value as an analytical tool to measure the sustainability of existing and proposed land use composition.

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2013 to 2040 Growth Projections Report Document

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