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Background Status Why we forecast BBER - bernco.gov · Albuquerque, MSA 2035 Projections 2040...

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• Background •Status •Why we forecast •BBER

Transcript

Page 1: Background Status Why we forecast BBER - bernco.gov · Albuquerque, MSA 2035 Projections 2040 Update . Drivers of Growth -10,000-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 ... 2035 MTP 2035 ALTERNATIVE

• Background

•Status

•Why we forecast

•BBER

Page 2: Background Status Why we forecast BBER - bernco.gov · Albuquerque, MSA 2035 Projections 2040 Update . Drivers of Growth -10,000-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 ... 2035 MTP 2035 ALTERNATIVE

Annual Rate of Growth

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

2000 -2001

2001 -2002

2002 -2003

2003 -2004

2004 -2005

2005 -2006

2006 -2007

2007 -2008

2008 -2009

2009 -2010

2010 -2011

2011 -2012

Albuquerque, MSA

2035 Projections

2040 Update

Page 3: Background Status Why we forecast BBER - bernco.gov · Albuquerque, MSA 2035 Projections 2040 Update . Drivers of Growth -10,000-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 ... 2035 MTP 2035 ALTERNATIVE

Drivers of Growth

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

NM Migration (net)

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

15.0

15.5

16.0

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

Birth Rate (per 1,000)

Page 4: Background Status Why we forecast BBER - bernco.gov · Albuquerque, MSA 2035 Projections 2040 Update . Drivers of Growth -10,000-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 ... 2035 MTP 2035 ALTERNATIVE

Regional Projections: Old & New

500,000

700,000

900,000

1,100,000

1,300,000

1,500,000

1,700,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

New

Old

Page 5: Background Status Why we forecast BBER - bernco.gov · Albuquerque, MSA 2035 Projections 2040 Update . Drivers of Growth -10,000-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 ... 2035 MTP 2035 ALTERNATIVE

Impact of Alternative Option

6 Zones that contain

Santolina 2035 MTP

2035 ALTERNATIVE DIFFERENCE

Population 72,000 15,000 -79%

Housing 29,000 6,000 -79%

• Development in the Santolina area represented scattered unplanned growth in the 2035 MTP.

Page 6: Background Status Why we forecast BBER - bernco.gov · Albuquerque, MSA 2035 Projections 2040 Update . Drivers of Growth -10,000-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 ... 2035 MTP 2035 ALTERNATIVE

Santolina Zones

Page 7: Background Status Why we forecast BBER - bernco.gov · Albuquerque, MSA 2035 Projections 2040 Update . Drivers of Growth -10,000-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 ... 2035 MTP 2035 ALTERNATIVE

Santolina Employment Assumptions

147,000 New Jobs In Bernalillo County

2035

Page 8: Background Status Why we forecast BBER - bernco.gov · Albuquerque, MSA 2035 Projections 2040 Update . Drivers of Growth -10,000-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 ... 2035 MTP 2035 ALTERNATIVE

2008 2035

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