2017 Spring Flood Outlook - National Weather Service€¦ · 2017 Spring Flood Outlook - Mid...

2017 Spring Flood Outlook

- Mid February Update -

Gregory J. Gust Warning Coordination Meteorologist

NWS Grand Forks ND

Prepared for the Red River of the North and Devils Lake Basin Spring Flood Outlook Webinar Grand Forks ND - 16 February 2017

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

2017 Spring Flood Outlook - Feb Update for the Red River and Devils Lake Basins

Prepared by: Gregory J. Gust, Warning Coordination Meteorologist - NWS Grand Forks ND

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=FGF

Highlights: Early Thaw underway… - Overall risk lowered. - Low in South Valley. Flood Risk Remains… - High in North Valley. - Highest in Devils Lake and northeast ND Tribs.



2017 Spring Flood Outlook - Feb Update Soil Moisture is quite high

Image courtesy of NWS/CPC

First, an Overview - Current Conditions. -- Soil Moisture 90-99th percentile - Basis for Concerns. - Flood Risk examples.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml




First, an Overview - Current Conditions. -- Soil Moisture 90-99th percentile Due to late Fall Rains especially in South Valley …since Oct 1st, 1-3 inches above normal - Basis for Concerns. - Flood Risk examples.



First, an Overview - Current Conditions. -- Soil Moisture 90-99th percentile Due to Summer and early Fall Rains especially in North Valley …since May 1st, 8-12 inches above normal - Basis for Concerns. - Flood Risk examples.


2017 Spring Flood Outlook - Feb Update Base Streamflows are quite high

First, an Overview - Current Conditions. -- Soil Moisture 90-99th percentile -- Base Streamflow 90-99th percentile - Basis for Concerns. - Flood Risk examples.


2017 Spring Flood Outlook - Feb Update Base Streamflows are quite high

First, an Overview - Current Conditions. -- Soil Moisture 90-99th percentile -- Base Streamflow 90-99th percentile - Basis for Concerns. - Flood Risk examples.


Freeze-up in late November at near-record flow Eg. Park River at Grafton ND


early February flows measured near-record Eg. Buffalo River at Hawley MN


NWS/NDAWN Frost Depth [Shallow to Normal] As of February 12, 2017

• Varies 12-24 inches across northeast ND and northwest MN.

• Deep/early snow leads to shallow frost. • Recent thaws

have exposed areas to potential deeper frost.


Fall-Winter Precipitation [Wet and Snowy]

Accumulated Snowfall:

Snow Amounts in excess of 200% of normal over much of central ND…

For Red River flows… this affects Park, Upper Pembina, and Upper Sheyenne.

Most of Devils Lake Basin.

Else, 125-175% of normal northern Red River Basin.

Near normal South Basin.


2017 Snow Depth – Snow Water [thaw conditions underway]

T to 4 inches

12-20 inches

7-14 inches

GOES Visible Satellite imagery from 3:30pm CST, 15 Feb 2017


2017 Snow Depth – Snow Water [thaw conditions underway]

T to 4 inches

12-20 inches

7-14 inches

GOES Visible Satellite imagery from 3:30pm CST, 15 Feb 2017

Nearly Snow Free!

Tree Line Forested Areas


Current Snow Depth ranges from 75 to 200+ percent of normal across the state. 20+ inches central and northern areas.

2017 Snow Depth – Snow Water [mid to high]

18-28 inches

T to 4 inches

12-24 inches

6-14 inches


Red River Basin SWE is highly variable… trace to 4 inches. Devils Lake Basin SWE is generally 3 to 5 inches.

2017 Snow Depth – Snow Water [mid to high]


Outlook issued on 16 Feb 2017 Spring Flood Risk by Category

Moderate Minor

Moderate


Minor to Moderate Flooding Expected Red River at Fargo-Moorhead

Flood of Record - 40.84 feet 3/28/2009


Minor to Moderate Flooding Expected Sheyenne River at Valley City



Moderate plus Flooding Expected Red River at Oslo



Major to Record Flooding Expected Park River at Grafton



Major Flooding Expected Pembina River at Neche



Moderate to Major Flooding Expected Two Rivers River at Hallock



Major Flooding Expected Red River at Pembina



Major Flooding Expected Devils Lake at Creel Bay

2009

- Historical Simulation is what occurred in a particular year. - Conditional Simulation is what those same years could produce given the current basin conditions. Eg. WY 2009 produced 677K acre-ft of inflow, but given the current conditions a 2009-like spring would produce lesser runoff amounts.



- Historical Simulation is what occurred in a particular year. - Conditional Simulation is what those same years could produce given the current basin conditions. Eg. WY 2011 produced 518K acre-ft of inflow, but given the current conditions a 2011-like spring would produce higher runoff amounts.

2009

2011



Flood of Record: - 1454.30 feet 6/27/2011 Expected Range: 1453.3 - 1454.3



Flood of Record: - 1454.30 feet 6/27/2011


Outlook issued on 16 Feb 2017 Spring Flood Risk by Category

Moderate Minor

Moderate


Issued Thursday evening at 6:52 pm CST Next Monday Morning’s Weather…

• Widespread light rain across the area. Some mixed rain/snow along the border.

• Else, wet along the west coast, wet in the south.


7-Day Precipitation Forecast February 16-23, 2017

• .25+ inch rainfall on Monday. Snow possible later in the week.

• Strong/wet CONUS systems tracking across west and south.


6-10 Day Outlook [mild and wet/snowy]

February 21-25 2017… Relatively Mild and Rainy then Snowy.


Late Winter- Early Spring Outlook [March]

Slight cool and slight wet signal persists… mainly MT and the Dakotas.


Mid to Late Spring… [Mar-Apr-May]

Trend for near normal Temperatures, with above normal Precipitation


2017 Spring Flood Outlook - Feb Update for the Red River and Devils Lake Basins

Thank You! Our next update will be issued on 2 March 2017.


Highlights: Early Thaw underway… - Overall risk lowered. - Low in South Valley. Flood Risk Remains… - High in North Valley. - Highest in Devils Lake and northeast ND Tribs.



2017 Spring Flood Outlook – Feb Update for the Red River and Devils Lake Basins

Are you a WRN Ambassador?

Greg Gust - NOAA/NWS Grand Forks ND

Historic Flooding in the Red River of the North Basin

Since 1996

Gregory J. Gust Warning Coordination Meteorologist

NWS Grand Forks ND

River Gages (diamonds) and Forecast Points (circles) across the U.S. portion of the Basin NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services: http://water.weather.gov/ahps

http://water.weather.gov/ahps

River Gages (diamonds) and Forecast Points (circles) across the Northern Red Basin (U.S. portion)

NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services: http://water.weather.gov/ahps

* Denotes some higher pre-1997 floods not included in list.

Crest Year Date

Point Crest Year WLHN8 17.26 ft.

16.63 ft. 16.55 ft. 16.53 ft.

2013 2009 2011 1997

NCEN8 21.78 ft. 21.77 ft. 21.69 ft. ----

2011 2013 2009 1997

GRNN8 (‘50)

16.15 ft. 16.03 ft. 15.71 ft. 15.40 ft.

2004* 2013 2009 1997

MTON8 (‘48)

9.27 ft. 9.11 ft.

2004* 1997

HLLM5 810.70 ft. 810.26 ft.

1997 2010

ALVM5 110.88 ft. 109.66 ft.

1997 2010*

OSLM5 38.37 ft. 38.09 ft. 38.00 ft.

2009 2011 1997

DRTN8 45.55 ft. 43.82 ft.

1997 2009

PBNN8 54.94 ft. 52.71 ft.

1997 2009

WLHN8 2013

NCEN8 2011

GRNN8 2004* MTON8 2004* ALVM5

1997

HLLM5 1997

OSLM5 2009

DRTN8 1997

PMBN8 1997


River Gages (diamonds) and Forecast Points (circles) across the Central Red Basin (U.S. portion)



Crest Year Date

Point Crest Year HGRN8 (‘79)

16.67 ft. 15.64 ft. 15.62 ft.

2009*2010 1997

HNDM5 33.85 ft. 33.56 ft. 33.06 ft.

1997 2009 2011

SYHM5 25.45 ft. 25.01 ft. 24.95 ft.

1997 2006 2009

CLXM5 39.27 ft. 34.56 ft. 29.86 ft.

1997 2011 2006*

CRKM5 28.40 ft. 26.51 ft. 25.63 ft.

1997 2001* 2009*

HILN8 40.74 ft. 40.63 ft. 40.51 ft.

1997 2009 2011

EGFM5 54.35 ft. 49.86 ft. 49.33 ft.

1997 2011* 2009

OSLM5 38.37 ft. 38.09 ft. 38.00 ft.

2009 2011 1997

HGRN8 2009* HILM5

1997 HNDM5

1997

CLXM5 1997

CRKM5 1997

SYHM5 1997

EGFM5 1997


River Gages (diamonds) and Forecast Points (circles) across the Southwestern Red Basin (U.S. portion)


* Denotes some higher pre-1997 floods not included in list. + Denotes record peak flow versus peak stage.

Crest Year Date

Point Crest Year VCRN8 20.69 ft.

20.66 ft. 18.78 ft. 18.01 ft.

2009 2011 1996* 1997*

LBNN8 22.86 ft. 21.70 ft. 19.46 ft. 19.29 ft.

2009 2011 2010 1997

KNDN8 22.33 ft. 21.55 ft.

1997 2009*

ENDN8 (‘75)

14.14 ft. 13.71 ft. 13.31 ft. 13.03 ft.

2009*2010 2011* 1997

MPLN8 909.83 ft. 909.77 ft. 909.73 ft. 909.58 ft.

2006 2011 2009 2001

HWDN8 892.02 ft. 891.82 ft. 891.72 ft.

1997 2011+ 2009

ABRN8 27.78 ft. 26.59 ft. 25.99 ft. 25.20 ft.

2009 1997* 2011 2001

VCRN8 2009 MPLN8

2006

ENDN8 2009*

KNDN8 1997

LBNN8 2009

HWDN8 1997/2011

ABRN8 2009


River Gages (diamonds) and Forecast Points (circles) across the Southeast/core Red Basin (U.S. portion)



Crest Year Date

Point Crest Year HWYM5 (‘21)

10.82 ft. 10.77 ft. 10.60 ft.

2006* 1997 2009

SABM5 19.11 ft. 19.08 ft. 18.29 ft.

1997 2009 2006

DILM5 (‘75)

27.02 ft. 25.86 ft. 24.11 ft.

1997* 2009 2006*

WHNN8 19.42 ft. 17.50 ft. 16.94 ft. 16.49 ft.

1997 2009*2001*2010

HICN8 39.04 ft. 37.60 ft. 37.15 ft. 36.40 ft.

2009 1997 2011 2006

FGON8 40.84 ft. 39.72 ft. 38.81 ft. 37.13 ft.

2009 1997 2011* 2006*

HILN8 40.74 ft. 40.63 ft. 40.51 ft. 39.41 ft.

1997 2009 2011 2006

HWYM5 2006* SABM5

1997

DILM5 1997*

WHNN8 1997

FGON8 2009

HICN8 2009


River or Lake Gages (diamonds) and Forecast Points (circles) across the Devils Lake Basin and Upper James*


*Note: James River is not part of the greater Red River Basin drainage.

Crest Year Date

Point Crest Year DCNN8 1454.30 ft.

1453.96 ft. 1453.72 ft. 1453.54 ft. 1452.05 ft. 1450.93 ft. 1449.20 ft. 1449.18 ft. 1449.17 ft. 1448.01 ft. 1447.52 ft. 1437.Xx ft. 1435.Xx ft. 1422.Xx ft.

20112013 2014 2012 2010 2009 2006 20042005 20012003 1997 1996 1993

ESLN8 Equalized DVL Inflow

2007 2001

West End-out

Pump-250 Pump-100

20102005

East End-out

Pump-350 2012

GCEN8 17.74 ft. 17.54 ft. 16.18 ft. 14.77 ft.

20092011 1996 1997

HWYM5 2006* SABM5

1997

DILM5 1997*

WHNN8 1997

FGON8 2009

HICN8 2009

DCNN8 2011

GCEN8 2009

ESLN8 2011


Approximate Daily Elevation of Devils Lake during Recorded Era, w/persistent rise during 1993-2013 wet period.


Graph courtesy of the USGS and the ND State Water Commission.

Crest Year Date

Point Crest Year DCNN8 (Devils Lk)

1454.30 ft. 1453.96 ft. 1453.72 ft. 1453.54 ft. 1452.05 ft. 1450.93 ft. 1449.20 ft. 1449.18 ft. 1449.17 ft. 1448.01 ft. 1447.52 ft. 1437.Xx ft. 1435.Xx ft. 1422.Xx ft.

20112013 2014 2012 2010 2009 2006 20042005 20012003 1997 1996 1993

ESLN8 (Stump Lk)

Equalized DL Inflow

2007 2001

West End-out

Pump-250 Pump-100

20102005

East End-out

Pump-350 2012

GCEN8 17.74 ft. 17.54 ft. 16.18 ft. 14.77 ft.

20092011 1996 1997

HWYM5 2006* SABM5

1997

DILM5 1997*

WHNN8 1997

FGON8 2009

HICN8 2009

DCNN8 2011

GCEN8 2009

ESLN8 2011

~10 ft. Rise after winters of 1995-96 and 96-97

~8 ft. Rise after winters of 2008-09, 09-10, and 10-11


Recent Record Spring Floods at Forecast Points (circles) across the U.S. portion of the Red River Basin


2013 2011

1997

1997

1997

1997 1997

2004

2009

2010

2009

2009 1997

1997 1997

1997 2009

1997

2006

1997 2009

2009

2011 1997

2009

1997

2001 2009 2009

1997 2011

2009

2011

2011

2009

2011

2009 2004

2001

Historic “Spring” Flooding

in the Red River Basin

Since 1997 ---

Accumulative Impacts of the

1993-2013 Wet Period

1950

1921 1975

1979

1948


Spring Flooding ??

7. Heavy Spring Rains 1. Fall Moisture 6. Spring Thaw Cycle 2. Base Streamflow 5. Snow Water Content 3. Frost Depth 4. Winter Snow Pack

Of the main ingredients to a spring flood, only the base layers are currently in place… while more winter remains to play out.

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