2020 Election Toolbox

A guide to the 2020 presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections

July 28, 2020

Producer National Journal Presentation Center

Roadmap

Presidential election

Congressional elections

Gubernatorial elections

3

Keys to the 2020 presidential election

Zachary Goldstein | Slide last updated on: May 26, 2020

Sources: US News & World Report, Migration Policy Institute, New York Times, Vox, FiveThirtyEight, Washington Post.

Suburban districts• Trump’s support in suburban districts has decreased since his inauguration• Democrats’ performance in the suburbs was a key reason for their success in the 2018 midterms

Shifting demographics in key states• The GOP electorate is consistently older and white, while the general population becomes more diverse• The growing Hispanic population in key swing states Arizona and Florida could determine the election• While still unlikely, Democrats are becoming more competitive in Texas, which has 38 electoral votes

President Trump’s handling of COVID-19• Trump planned to campaign on a booming economy, but the pandemic has led to record unemployment• The Biden campaign will devote a lot of money on ads accusing President Trump of inaction

Campaigning in a pandemic• The pandemic has prevented Trump and Biden from holding large campaign rallies and fundraisers• Biden has kept a low profile during the pandemic, which has kept the light on Trump and his performance• Get out the vote (GOTV) campaigns have been put on hold, while Democrats push hard for voters to vote by mail-in

2016 election

outcome

Clinton EC votes, 222

MN10

PA20

MI16

NC15

FL29

AZ11

GA16

Trump EC votes, 189WI10

4

Potential 2020 electoral college scenarios based on performance in swing states

Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: May 28, 2019

2% shift

towards Clinton

in swing states

Clinton EC votes, 222

MN10

PA20

MI16

NC15

FL29

AZ11

GA16

Trump EC votes, 189WI10

4% shift

towards Clinton

in swing states

Clinton EC votes, 222

MN10

PA20

MI16

NC15

FL29

AZ11

GA16

Trump EC votes, 189WI10

*North Carolina did not have a Senate election in 2018

Sources: Swing states based on Cook Political Report rankings270 Electoral College votes needed to win

2018 Senate race

outcomes in swing

states

Clinton EC votes, 222

MN10

PA20

MI16

NC*15

FL29

AZ11

GA16

Trump EC votes, 189WI10

YearRecession in 2 years before

election?President Reelection?

1912 YES Taft NO

1916 NO Wilson YES

1924 YES Coolidge YES

1932 YES Hoover NO

1936 NO FDR YES

1940 NO FDR YES

1944 NO FDR YES

1948 NO Truman YES

1956 NO Eisenhower YES

1964 NO Johnson YES

1972 NO Nixon YES

1976 YES Ford NO

1980 YES Carter NO

1984 NO Reagan YES

1992 YES H.W. Bush NO

1996 NO Clinton YES

2004 NO W. Bush YES

2012 NO Obama YES

5

How does a recession impact a president’s reelection bid?

Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: March 17, 2020

Sources: Mehlman Castagnetti

presidents since 1912

have faced a recession

within 2 years before their

reelection bid

6

5 of those 6presidents lost reelection

6

Financial summary at the end of June 2020

$343

$279

$237

$170

$113 $109

Trump Biden

■ Total receipts ■ Total disbursements ■ Ending cash on hand

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

Sources: Federal Election Commission.

President Trump has spent over $237 million during his presidential campaign

Slide last updated on: July 24, 2020

7

Principal campaign committee fundraising by monthMILLIONS OF DOLLARS

Sources: Federal Election Commission.

Biden’s campaign has raised more money each month in 2020, but continues to trail in cash on hand

Slide last updated on: July 24, 2020

$6

$14 $14$17

$25

$55

$9

$18

$47$44

$37

$63

$93 $94$98

$108 $108$113

$7

$12

$26

$57

$82

$109

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

January February March April May June

Trump Receipts Biden Receipts Trump Cash on Hand Biden Cash on Hand

Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

Sources: National Journal Research, Bully Pulpit Interactive.

Trump has spent more than double the amount that Biden’s campaign has on Facebook spending

8

Spending between Jan. 5, 2019 and July 18, 2020

■ Facebook spending ■ Google spending

Michelle Schrier | Slide last updated on: July 28, 2020

Donald TrumpFacebook likes: 28.5 millionTwitter followers: 84.2 millionInstagram followers: 20.1 million

Joe BidenFacebook likes: 2.2 millionTwitter followers: 7.4 millionInstagram followers: 2.8 million

61.9M

26.5M

37.2M

16M

Donald Trump Joe Biden

Targeted Facebook spending by demographic

■ Male ■ Female ■ Unknown

50.5%

62.8%

48.8%

36.1%

Trump

Biden

■ 13-24 ■ 25-44 ■ 45-64 ■ 65+

22.9%

31.3%

45.2%

39.1%

27.1%

24.0%

Trump

Biden

9

A number of major polls show Joe Biden with a lead over President Trump

41

41

40

40

49

53

55

51

4

4

4

7

5

2

1

2

1

1

Fox News

(July 12-15, 2020)

Monmouth University

(June 26-June 30,

2020)

ABC/Washington Post

(July 12-15, 2020)

NBC/WSJ(July 9-12, 2020)

■ Trump ■ Biden ■ Other/Neither ■ Undecided/Not sure ■ Wouldn’t vote/No one

Head-to-head general election polls

Sources: Fox News, NBC/WSJ, ABC/Washington Post, Monmouth University.

Slide last updated on: July 21, 2020

AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS

10

Average of head-to-head general election polls

■ Trump ■ Biden

Sources: RealClearPolitics.

Slide last updated on: July 28, 2020

REALCLEARPOLITICS, AS OF JULY 28, 2020

45.0

42.7

41.2

45.0

42.8

41.8

49.0

50.5

49.6

48.0

50.2

48.2

Arizona

Florida

Michigan

North Carolina

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin

Roadmap

Presidential election

Congressional elections

Gubernatorial elections

12

Keys to the 2020 congressional races

• To win the majority in the House, Republicans must pick up 18 seats • Out of the 22 seats rated as Toss Ups by The Cook Political Report, 16 belong to incumbent Democrats while six belong to incumbent

Republicans• Out of the 88 seats rated as competitive, 50 belong to Democrats and 33 belong to Republicans

Democrats’ strong position in the House• Heading into the 2020 election, about three times as many Republicans (27) will not seeking reelection as Democrats (10)• Only one of these seats (Rep. Dave Loebsack (IA-2) is at risk of flipping from D to R• Democrats hold a wide lead in most generic ballot polls and hold a strong advantage due to strong fundraising efforts at the

candidate level and weak recruitment efforts for House Republicans

• To gain majority in the Senate, Democrats would need to gain four seats or three seats and the presidency for power in a tie-break• Out of the 35 seats up for reelection, 12 are currently held by Democrats and 23 are currently held by Republicans• Four of the Republican seats are rated as Toss Up by The Cook Political Report (Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina)

Multiple competitive races in one state has compounding effect• In Arizona, the race between incumbent Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) and retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) has become increasingly

competitive and Arizona’s role as a swing state in the presidential election will bring a slew of spending and effort to increase turnout for both elections

• In North Carolina, the 2020 Senate, gubernatorial, and presidential race are all competitive

Senate Republicans mostly on defense for 2020• The 2020 Senate election map put Senate Republicans on defense for this election• Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL), currently rated as Lean R, and Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), currently rated as Lean D, seem to be the only

opportunity for Republicans to increase their majority in the Senate• Senate Republicans and their allied PAC have reserved $94 million of air time for June 1st through election day on behalf of seven

incumbents

12

Sources:

Slide last updated on: May 26, 2020

Keys to the House

Keys to the Senate

Slide last updated on: May 26, 2020

Sources: United States Senate: Class II Roster

13

Senators up for re-election in states won by the opposing party’s 2016 presidential candidate

NH

VT

OH

WVVA

PA

NY

ME

NC

SC

GA

TN*

KY

IN

MI

WI

MN

IL

LATX

OK

ID

NV

OR

WA

CA

AZNM*

CO

WY*

MT ND

SD

IA

UT

FL

AR

MO

MS AL

NE

KS*

AK

HI

Democrats (12) Republicans (23)

Doug Jones (AL) Jeanne Shaheen (NH) Dan Sullivan (AK) Jim Risch (ID) Cindy Hyde-Smith (MS) Lamar Alexander (TN)*

Chris Coons (DE) Cory Booker (NJ) Martha McSally (AZ) Joni Ernst (IA) Steve Daines (MT) Lindsey Graham (SC)

Dick Durbin (IL) Tom Udall (NM)* Tom Cotton (AR) Pat Roberts (KS)* Ben Sasse (NE) John Cornyn (TX)

Ed Markey (MA) Jeff Merkley (OR) Cory Gardner (CO) Mitch McConnell (KY) Thom Tillis (NC) Shelley Moore Capito (WV)

Gary Peters (MI) Jack Reed (RI) David Perdue (GA) Bill Cassidy (LA) Jim Inhofe (OK) Mike Enzi (WY)*

Tina Smith (MN) Mark Warner (VA) Kelly Loeffler (GA) Susan Collins (ME) Mike Rounds (SD)

*Senators not seeking reelection in 2020

■ Democratic senator Trump victory

■ Republican senator Clinton victoryGary Peters (D) won in 2014 by 13.3%

Doug Jones (D) won in a 2017 special election by 1.5%

Cory Gardner (R) won in 2014 by 1.9%

Susan Collins (R) won in 2014 by 37.0%

■ Seat held by a Republican ■ Seat held by a Democrat ■ Top five states most likely to flip

14Slide last updated on: May 19, 2020

Sources: National Journal

IN ORDER HOW LIKELY THEY ARE TO FLIP PARTY CONTROL

Hotline’s 2020 Senate power rankings

Hotline: Only two Democratic Senate seats are in the top ten most likely to flip party control

3

1

2

4

5

8

6

7

10

*List of challengers is not exhaustive

6. Iowa — Joni Ernst (R)

7. Montana — Steve Daines (R)

8. Georgia — Kelly Loeffler (R)

Georgia — David Perdue (R)

9. Michigan — Gary Peters (D)

10. Kansas — Open seat (R)

1. Alabama:• Incumbent: Doug Jones (D)• Challengers: Former Attorney General Jeff Sessions (R),

former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville (R)

2. Colorado: • Incumbent: Cory Gardner (R)• Challengers: Former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D), former

State House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D),

3. Arizona:• Incumbent: Martha McSally (R)• Challengers: Veteran & retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D)

4. North Carolina:• Incumbent: Thom Tillis (R)• Challengers: Former State Sen. Cal Cunningham (D)

5. Maine: • Incumbent: Susan Collins (R)• Challengers: State House Speaker Sara Gideon (D),

former gov. candidate Betsy Sweet, attorney Bre Kidman

9

■ Seat held by a Republican ■ Seat held by a Democrat

15Slide last updated on: July 27, 2020

* Incumbent not seeking reelection in 2020Sources: National Journal

IN ORDER HOW LIKELY THEY ARE TO FLIP PARTY CONTROL

Hotline’s 2020 House power rankings

Hotline: Fourteen Democrat-held House seats are in the top 20 most likely to flip party control

1. TX-23: Rep. Will Hurd (R)*

2. GA-7: Rep. Rob Woodall (R)*

3. NM-2: Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D)

4. OK-5: Rep. Kendra Horn (D)

5. SC-1: Rep. Joe Cunningham (D)

6. TX-22: Rep. Pete Olson (R)*

7. TX-24: Rep. Kenny Marchant (R)*

8. IN-5: Rep. Susan Brooks (R)*

9. IA-1: Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D)

10. NY-22: Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D)

11. NY-11: Rep. Max Rose (D)

12. ME-2: Rep. Jared Golden (D)

13. NY-2: Rep. Peter King (R)*

14. IL-13: Rep. Rodney Davis (R)

15. IA-3: Rep. Cindy Axne (D)

16. NE-2: Rep. Don Bacon (R)

17. PA-10: Rep. Scott Perry (R)

18. MN-7: Rep. Collin Peterson (D)

19. NY-24: Rep. John Katko (R)

20. CA-25: Rep. Mike Garcia (R)

16

The national GOP committees have raised about $183 million more than their Democratic counterparts so far

Sources: FEC

$409,733,895

$207,780,191

$187,333,958

$160,059,646

$133,609,960

$125,144,638

$520,258,787

$703,403,502

RNC

DCCC

DNC

NRCC

NRSC

DSCC

Total Dem

Total GOP

Total receipts by national party PACs

AS OF JUNE 30, 2020

Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: June 22, 2020

■ Democratic PAC ■ Republican PAC

Roadmap

Presidential election

Congressional elections

Gubernatorial elections

18

Keys to 2020 gubernatorial races

Slide last updated on: May 26, 2020

Sources: Cook Political Report, Ballotpedia,

High visibility during COVID-19 outbreak could favor incumbents• State response has been in the spotlight during the COVID-19 outbreak, leading to coverage of governors and more

exposure to the public• In multiple public polls, most governors have a higher approval rating than President Trump on their handling of

the coronavirus

Few possibilities for party flips• Currently, Democrats hold 24 governorships while Republicans hold 26• In the 2020 elections, seven GOP seats are up for election while four Democratic seats are up for election• However, only two seats are likely to possibly flip parties (NC-Cooper (D) and MT-Open (D))• Montana’s seat is open because incumbent Gov. Steve Bullock (D) is term-limited

Governorships do not always align with partisanship for other offices• Presidential and Senate elections do not necessarily indicate which party will win the governor seat in a state• Although President Trump won Montana by 20 points in 2016, Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT) won his election

although it was a slimmer margin• Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) (up for reelection in 2022) has won two consecutive gubernatorial elections despite

Maryland electing two Democratic senators and Democrats winning the state in presidential elections since 1992• This indicates that voters may be willing to split the ticket for gubernatorial elections

North Carolina is home to many competitive races in 2020• In addition to having a gubernatorial race rated as Lean D by The Cook Political Report, North Carolina also has a

competitive Senate race, is considered a presidential swing state, and has three competitive House races in 2020• An influx of spending, ads, and efforts from campaigns and outside groups will work to raise voter registration,

turnout, and support for their respective sides in 2020

19

There are only two open seats up for election in 2020

*“Open seats” are governorships where incumbent governors are term-limited, they have announced that they are not running for re-election, or lost their primary

Sources: Cook Political Report, 2019

■ Dem. incumbent (3) ■ Dem. open* (1)

■ GOP incumbent (6) ■ GOP open* (1)

Slide last updated on: Dec. 13, 2019

2020 gubernatorial races by incumbent and status

NH

VT

OH

WVVA

PA

NY

ME

NC

SC

GA

TN

KY

IN

MI

WI

MN

IL

LATX

OK

ID

NV

OR

WA

CA

AZNM

CO

WY

MT ND

SD

IA

UT

FL

AR

MO

MS AL

NE

KS

AK

HI

MD

MA

RI

CT

DC

DE

NJ