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204521 Digital System Architecture 1April 19, 2023
Lecture 1bTechnology Trends
Pradondet Nilagupta , KU(Based on lecture notes by Prof. Randy Katz
& Prof. Jan M. Rabaey , UC Berkeley)
204521 Digital System Architecture 2April 19, 2023
Original
Big Fishes Eating Little Fishes
204521 Digital System Architecture 3April 19, 2023
1988 Computer Food Chain
PCWork-station
Mini-computer
Mainframe
Mini-supercomputer
Supercomputer
Massively Parallel
Processors
204521 Digital System Architecture 4April 19, 2023
1998 Computer Food Chain
PCWork-station
Mainframe
Supercomputer
Mini-supercomputerMassively Parallel
Processors
Mini-computer
Now who is eating whom?
Server
204521 Digital System Architecture 5April 19, 2023
Why Such Change in 10 years? Function
– Rise of networking/local interconnection technology
Performance– Technology Advances
CMOS VLSI dominates TTL, ECL in cost & performance
– Computer architecture advances improves low-end RISC, Superscalar, RAID, …
Price: Lower costs due to …– Simpler development
CMOS VLSI: smaller systems, fewer components
– Higher volumes CMOS VLSI : same dev. cost 10,000 vs. 10,000,000 units
– Lower margins by class of computer, due to fewer services
204521 Digital System Architecture 6April 19, 2023
1985 Computer Food Chain Technologies
PCWork-stationMini-
computer
Mainframe
Mini-supercomputer
Supercomputer
ECL TTL MOS
204521 Digital System Architecture 7April 19, 2023
Year
Tra
nsis
tors
1000
10000
100000
1000000
10000000
100000000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
i80386
i4004
i8080
Pentium
i80486
i80286
i8086
Technology Trends: Microprocessor Capacity
CMOS improvements:• Die size: 2X every 3 yrs• Line width: halve / 7 yrs
“Graduation Window”
Alpha 21264: 15 millionPentium Pro: 5.5 millionPowerPC 620: 6.9 millionAlpha 21164: 9.3 millionSparc Ultra: 5.2 million
Moore’s Law
204521 Digital System Architecture 8April 19, 2023
Memory Capacity (Single Chip DRAM)
size
Year
Bit
s
1000
10000
100000
1000000
10000000
100000000
1000000000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
year size(Mb) cyc time
1980 0.0625 250 ns1983 0.25 220 ns1986 1 190 ns1989 4 165 ns1992 16 145 ns1996 64 120 ns2000 256 100 ns
204521 Digital System Architecture 9April 19, 2023
CMOS ImprovementsDie size 2X every 3 yrs
Line widths halve every 7 yrs
0
5
10
15
20
25
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992
Die SizeLine Width Improvement
Die size increase plus transistor count increase
Transistor Count
204521 Digital System Architecture 10April 19, 2023
Future DRAMs (Spectrum 1/96)
1995 .35 190 .064 1998 .25 280 .256 2001 .18 420 1 2004 .13 640 4 2007 .10 960 16 2010 .07 1400 64
Year Smallest Die Size Bits/Chip Feature sq. mm (Billions)
204521 Digital System Architecture 11April 19, 2023
Memory Size of Various Systems Over Time
128K
128M
20008K
1M
8M
1G
8G
1970 1980 1990
1 chip
1Kbit
640K
4K 16K 64K 256K 1M 4M 16M 64M 256M
DOS limit
1/8 chip
8 chips-PC
64 chips workstation
512 chips
4K chips
Bytes
Time
204521 Digital System Architecture 12April 19, 2023
Technology Trends(Summary)
Capacity Speed (latency)
Logic 2x in 3 years 2x in 3 years
DRAM 4x in 3 years 2x in 10 years
Disk 4x in 3 years 2x in 10 years
204521 Digital System Architecture 13April 19, 2023
386486
Pentium(R)
Pentium Pro(R)
Pentium(R) II
MPC750604+604
601, 603
21264S
2126421164A
2116421064A
21066
10
100
1,000
10,000
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
Mh
z
1
10
100
Ga
te D
ela
ys
/ Clo
ck
Intel
IBM Power PC
DEC
Gate delays/clock
Processor freq scales by 2X per
generation
Processor frequency trend
Frequency doubles each generation Number of gates/clock reduce by 25%
204521 Digital System Architecture 14April 19, 2023
Processor PerformanceTrends
Year
Microprocessors
Minicomputers
Mainframes
Supercomputers
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
204521 Digital System Architecture 15April 19, 2023
Performance vs. Time
Mips25 MHz
0.1
1.0
10
100
Per
form
ance
(V
AX
780
s)
1980 1985 1990
MV10K
68K
7805 MHz
RISC 60%
/ yr.
uVAX 6K(CMOS)
8600
TTL
ECL 15%/yr.
CMOS CISC
38%/yr.
o ||MIPS (8 MHz)
o9000
Mips(65 MHz)
uVAXCMOS Will RISC continue on a
60%, (x4 / 3 years)?
4K
204521 Digital System Architecture 16April 19, 2023
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
DEC A
lpha
21164/6
00
DEC A
lpha
5/5
00
DEC A
lpha
5/3
00
DEC A
lpha
4/2
66
IBM
PO
WER 1
00
DEC A
XP/
500
HP
9000/7
50
Sun
-4/2
60
IBM
RS
/6000
MIP
S M
/120
MIP
S M
/2000
Processor Performance(1.35X before, 1.55X now)
1.54X/yr
204521 Digital System Architecture 17April 19, 2023
Performance Trends(Summary)
Workstation performance (measured in Spec Marks) improves roughly 50% per year (2X every 18 months)
Improvement in cost performance estimated at 70% per year
204521 Digital System Architecture 18April 19, 2023
199919971995199319911989198719851983
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
Mainframe
Super-mini
Workstation
Inst
ruct
ion
s/se
con
d/$
Instructions/Second/$ vs. Time
PC
204521 Digital System Architecture 19April 19, 2023
Processor Perspective Putting performance growth in perspective:
IBM POWER2 Cray YMP
Workstation Supercomputer
Year 1993 1988
MIPS > 200 MIPS < 50 MIPS
Linpack 140 MFLOPS 160 MFLOPS
Cost $120,000 $1M ($1.6M in 1994$)
Clock 71.5 MHz 167 MHz
Cache 256 KB 0.25 KB
Memory 512 MB 256 MB 1988 supercomputer in 1993 server!
204521 Digital System Architecture 20April 19, 2023
Where Has This Performance Improvement Come From?
Technology? Organization? Instruction Set Architecture? Software? Some combination of all of the above?
204521 Digital System Architecture 21April 19, 2023
Performance Trends Revisited(Architectural Innovation)
Microprocessors
Minicomputers
Mainframes
Supercomputers
Year
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
CISC/RISC
204521 Digital System Architecture 22April 19, 2023
Performance Trends Revisited(Technology Advances)
Logic Speed: 2x per 3 years
Logic Capacity: 2x per 3 years
Leads to:
Computing capacity: 4x per 3 years
– If can keep all the transistors busy all the time
– Actual: 3.3x per 3 years
204521 Digital System Architecture 23April 19, 2023
Performance Trends Revisited (Microprocessor Organization)
Year
Transistors
1000
10000
100000
1000000
10000000
100000000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
r4400
r4000
r3010
i80386
i4004
i8080
i80286
i8086
• Bit Level Parallelism
• Pipelining
• Caches
• Instruction Level Parallelism
• Out-of-order Xeq
• Speculation
• . . .
204521 Digital System Architecture 24April 19, 2023
Greater instruction level parallelism? Bigger caches? Multiple processors per chip? Complete systems on a chip? (Portable Systems) High performance LAN, Interface, and Interconnect
What is Ahead?
204521 Digital System Architecture 25April 19, 2023
Hardware Technology 1980 1990 2000
Memory chips 64 K 4 M 256 M-1 G
Speed 1-2 20-40 400-1000
5-1/4 in. disks 40 M 1 G 20 G
Floppies .256 M 1.5 M 500-2,000 M
LAN (Switch) 2-10 Mbits 10 (100) 155-655 (ATM)
Busses 2-20 Mbytes 40-400
204521 Digital System Architecture 26April 19, 2023
Software Technology
1980 1990 2000 Languages C, FORTRAN C++, HPF object stuff?? Op. System proprietary +DUM* +DUM+NT User I/F glass Teletype WIMP* stylus, voice,
audio,video, ?? Comp. Styles T/S, PC Client/Server agents*mobile New things PC & WS parallel proc. appliances Capabilities WP, SS WP,SS, mail video, ??
DUM = DOS, n-UNIX's, MAC WIMP = Windows, Icons, Mouse, Pull-down menus Agents = robots that work on information
204521 Digital System Architecture 27April 19, 2023
Computing 2001 Continue quadrupling memory every 3 years
– 1K chip in 72 becomes 1 gigabit chip (128 Mbytes) in 2002
On-line 12-25 Gigabytes; $10 1-Gbyte floppies & CDs
Micros increase at 60% per year ... parallelism ญ100
Radio links for untethered computing
204521 Digital System Architecture 28April 19, 2023
Computing 2001
Telephone, fax, radio, television, camera, house, ...Real personal (watch, wallet,notepad) computers
We should be able to simulate:
– Nearly everything we make and their factories
– Much of the universe from the nucleus to galaxies
Performance implies: voice and visualEase of use. Agents!
204521 Digital System Architecture 29April 19, 2023
Applications: Unlimited Opportunities
Office agents: phone/FAX/comm; files/paper handling Untethered computing: fully distributed offices ?? Integration of video, communication, and computing:
desktop video publishing, conferencing, & mail Large, commercial transaction processing systems Encapsulate knowledge in a computer: scientific &
engineering simulation (e.g.. planetarium, wind tunnel, ... )
204521 Digital System Architecture 30April 19, 2023
Applications: Unlimited Opportunities
Visualization & virtual reality Computational chemistry e.g. biochemistry and
materials Mechanical engineering without prototypes Image/signal processing: medicine, maps, surveillance. Personal computers in 2001 are today's supercomputers Integration of the PC & TV => TC
204521 Digital System Architecture 31April 19, 2023
Challenges for 1990s Platforms
64-bit computers video, voice, communication, any really new apps? Increasingly large, complex systems and environments
Usability? Plethora of non-portable, distributed, incompatible,
non-interoperable computers: Usability? Scalable parallel computers can provide “commodity
supercomputing”: Markets and trained users?
204521 Digital System Architecture 32April 19, 2023
Challenges for 1990s Platforms
Apps to fuel and support a chubby industry: communications, paper/office, and digital video
The true portable, wireless communication computer Truly personal card, pencil, pocket, wallet computer Networks continue to limit: WAN, ISDN, and ATM?
204521 Digital System Architecture 33April 19, 2023
Density Access Time
(Gbits/cm2) (ns)
DRAM 8.5 10
DRAM (Logic) 2.5 10
SRAM (Cache) 0.3 1.5
Density Max. Ave. PowerClock Rate(Mgates/cm2) (W/cm2) (GHz)
Custom 25 54 3Std. Cell 10 27 1.5
Gate Array 5 18 1Single-Mask GA 2.5 12.5 0.7
FPGA 0.4 4.5 0.25
A glimpse into the future
Die Area: 2.5x2.5 cmVoltage: 0.6 - 0.9 VTechnology: 0.07 m15 times denser
than today2.5 times power
density5 times clock rate
Silicon in 2010Silicon in 2010
204521 Digital System Architecture 34April 19, 2023
What is the next wave?
Source: Richard Newton
204521 Digital System Architecture 35April 19, 2023
The Embedded Processor
What?
A programmable processor whose programming interface is not accessible to the end-user of the product.
The only user-interaction is through the actual application.
204521 Digital System Architecture 36April 19, 2023
Examples:
Sharp PDA’s are encapsulated products with fixed functionality
- 3COM Palm pilots were originally intended as embedded systems. Opening up the programmers interface turned them into more generic computer systems.
204521 Digital System Architecture 37April 19, 2023
Some interesting numbers The Intel 4004 was intended for an
embedded application (a calculator) Of todays microprocessors
– 95% go into embedded applications SSH3/4 (Hitachi): best selling RISC
microprocessor– 50% of microprocessor revenue stems from
embedded systems
204521 Digital System Architecture 38April 19, 2023
Some interesting numbers (cont.)
Often focused on particular application area– Microcontrollers– DSPs– Media Processors– Graphics Processors– Network and Communication Processors
204521 Digital System Architecture 39April 19, 2023
Some different evaluation metrics
Flexibility
Power
Cost
Performance as a Functionality ConstraintPerformance as a Functionality Constraint(“Just-in-Time Computing”)(“Just-in-Time Computing”)
Components of Cost
– Area of die / yield
– Code density (memory is the major part of die size)
– Packaging
– Design effort
– Programming cost
– Time-to-market
– Reusability