April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture

Technology Trends

Pradondet Nilagupta

Spring 2001

(original notes from Randy Katz, & Prof. Jan M. Rabaey , UC Berkeley)

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 2

Original

Big Fishes Eating Little Fishes

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 3

1988 Computer Food Chain

PCWork-station

Mini-computer

Mainframe

Mini-supercomputer

Supercomputer

Massively Parallel Processors

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 4

1998 Computer Food Chain

Mini-supercomputerMassively Parallel

Processors

Mini-computer

PCWork-station

Mainframe

Supercomputer Now who is eating whom?

Server

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 5

1985 Computer Food Chain Technologies

PCWork-stationMini-

computer

Mainframe

Mini-supercomputer

Supercomputer

ECL TTL MOS

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 6

Why Such Change in 10 years? (1/2)

Function– Rise of networking/local interconnection techn

ology

Performance– Technology Advances

• CMOS VLSI dominates TTL, ECL in cost & performance

– Computer architecture advances improves low-end

• RISC, Superscalar, RAID, …

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 7

Why Such Change in 10 years? (2/2)

Price: Lower costs due to …– Simpler development

• CMOS VLSI: smaller systems, fewer components

– Higher volumes• CMOS VLSI : same dev. cost 10,000 vs. 10,0

00,000 units – Lower margins by class of computer, due to

fewer services

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 8

Technology Trends: Microprocessor Capacity

Year

Tra

nsis

tors

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000

100000000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

i80386

i4004

i8080

Pentium

i80486

i80286

i8086

Moore’s Law

CMOS improvements:• Die size: 2X every 3 yrs• Line width: halve / 7 yrs

“Graduation Window”

Alpha 21264: 15 millionPentium Pro: 5.5 millionPowerPC 620: 6.9 millionAlpha 21164: 9.3 millionSparc Ultra: 5.2 million

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 9

Memory Capacity (Single Chip DRAM)

size

Year

Bit

s

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000

100000000

1000000000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

year size(Mb) cyc time

1980 0.0625 250 ns1983 0.25 220 ns1986 1 190 ns1989 4 165 ns1992 16 145 ns1996 64 120 ns2000 256 100 ns

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 10

CMOS Improvements

Die size 2X every 3 yrs

Line widths halve every 7 yrs

0

5

10

15

20

25

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992

Die SizeLine Width Improvement

Die size increase plus transistor count increase

Transistor Count

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 11

Memory Size of Various Systems Over Time

128K

128M

20008K

1M

8M

1G

8G

1970 1980 1990

1 chip

1Kbit

640K

4K 16K 64K 256K 1M 4M 16M 64M 256M

DOS limit

1/8 chip

8 chips-PC

64 chips workstation

512 chips

4K chips

Bytes

Time

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 12

Technology Trends (Summary)

Capacity Speed (latency)

Logic 2x in 3 years 2x in 3 years

DRAM 4x in 3 years 2x in 10 years

Disk 4x in 3 years 2x in 10 years

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 13

Processor Frequency Trend

Frequency doubles each generation Number of gates/clock reduce by 25%

Frequency doubles each generation Number of gates/clock reduce by 25%

386486

Pentium(R)

Pentium Pro(R)

Pentium(R) II

MPC750604+604

601, 603

21264S

2126421164A

2116421064A

21066

10

100

1,000

10,000

19

87

19

89

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

Mh

z

1

10

100

Ga

te D

ela

ys

/ Clo

ck

Intel

IBM Power PC

DEC

Gate delays/clock

Processor freq scales by 2X per

generation

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 14

Processor Performance Trends

Microprocessors

Minicomputers

Mainframes

Supercomputers

0.1

1

10

100

1000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 15

Performance vs. Time

Mips25 MHz

0.1

1.0

10

100P

erfo

rman

ce (

VA

X 7

80s)

1980 1985 1990

MV10K

68K

7805 MHz

RISC 60%

/ yr.

uVAX 6K(CMOS)

8600

TTL

ECL 15%/yr.

CMOS CISC

38%/yr.

o ||MIPS (8 MHz)

o9000

Mips(65 MHz)

uVAXCMOS Will RISC continue on a

60%, (x4 / 3 years)?

4K

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 16

Processor Performance(1.35X before, 1.55X now)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

DEC A

lpha

21164

/600

DEC A

lpha

5/5

00

DEC A

lpha

5/3

00

DEC A

lpha

4/2

66

IBM

PO

WER 1

00

DEC A

XP/

500

HP

9000

/750

Sun

-4/2

60

IBM

RS

/6000

MIP

S M

/120

MIP

S M

/2000

1.54X/yr

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 17

Summary: Performance Trends

Workstation performance (measured in Spec Marks) improves roughly 50% per year (2X every 18 months)

Improvement in cost performance estimated at 70% per year

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 18

Processor Perspective

Putting performance growth in perspective: IBM POWER2 Cray YMP

Workstation Supercomputer

Year 1993 1988

MIPS > 200 MIPS < 50 MIPS

Linpack 140 MFLOPS 160 MFLOPS

Cost $120,000 $1M ($1.6M in 1994$)

Clock 71.5 MHz 167 MHz

Cache 256 KB 0.25 KB

Memory 512 MB 256 MB

1988 supercomputer in 1993 server!

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 19

Where Has This Performance Improvement Come From?

Technology?

Organization?

Instruction Set Architecture?

Software?

Some combination of all of the above?

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 20

Performance Trends Revisited(Architectural Innovation)

Microprocessors

Minicomputers

Mainframes

Supercomputers

Year

0.1

1

10

100

1000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

CISC/RISC

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 21

Performance Trends Revisited (Microprocessor Organization)

Year

Transistors

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000

100000000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

r4400

r4000

r3010

i80386

i4004

i8080

i80286

i8086

• Bit Level Parallelism

• Pipelining

• Caches

• Instruction Level Parallelism

• Out-of-order Xeq

• Speculation

• . . .

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 22

What is Ahead?

Greater instruction level parallelism?

Bigger caches?

Multiple processors per chip?

Complete systems on a chip? (Portable Systems)

High performance LAN, Interface, and Interconnect

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 23

Hardware Technology

1980 1990 2000

Memory chips 64 K 4 M 256 M-1 G

Speed 1-2 20-40 400-1000

5-1/4 in. disks 40 M 1 G 20 G

Floppies .256 M 1.5 M 500-2,000 M

LAN (Switch) 2-10 Mbits 10 (100) 155-655 (ATM)

Busses 2-20 Mbytes 40-400

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 24

Software Technology

1980 1990 2000

Languages C, FORTRAN C++, HPF object stuff??

Op. System proprietary +DUM* +DUM+NT

User I/F glass Teletype WIMP* stylus, voice, audio,video, ??

Comp. Styles T/S, PC Client/Server agents*mobile

New things PC & WS parallel proc. appliances

Capabilities WP, SS WP,SS, mail video, ??

DUM = DOS, n-UNIX's, MAC

WIMP = Windows, Icons, Mouse, Pull-down menus

Agents = robots that work on information

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 25

Computing 2001 (1/2)

Continue quadrupling memory every 3 years– 1K chip in 72 becomes 1 gigabit chip (128 Mbyt

es) in 2002

On-line 12-25 Gigabytes; $10 1-Gbyte floppies & CDs

Micros increase at 60% per year ... parallelism

Radio links for untethered computing

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 26

Computing 2001 (2/2)

Telephone, fax, radio, television, camera, house, ... Real personal (watch, wallet,notepad) computers

We should be able to simulate: – Nearly everything we make and their factories

– Much of the universe from the nucleus to galaxies

Performance implies: voice and visualEase of use. Agents!

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 27

Applications: Unlimited Opportunities (1/2)

Office agents: phone/FAX/comm; files/paper handling

Untethered computing: fully distributed offices ??

Integration of video, communication, and computing: desktop video publishing, conferencing, & mail

Large, commercial transaction processing systems

Encapsulate knowledge in a computer: scientific & engineering simulation (e.g.. planetarium, wind tunnel, ... )

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 28

Applications: Unlimited Opportunities (2/2)

Visualization & virtual realityComputational chemistry e.g. biochemistry and materials Mechanical engineering without prototypesImage/signal processing: medicine, maps, surveillance.Personal computers in 2001 are today's supercomputersIntegration of the PC & TV => TC

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 29

Challenges for 1990s Platforms (1/2)

64-bit computers video, voice, communication, any really new apps? Increasingly large, complex systems and environments Usability?Plethora of non-portable, distributed, incompatible, non-interoperable computers: Usability?Scalable parallel computers can provide “commodity supercomputing”: Markets and trained users?

April 19, 2023204521 Digital System Architecture 30

Challenges for 1990s Platforms (2/2)

Apps to fuel and support a chubby industry: communications, paper/office, and digital videoThe true portable, wireless communication computer Truly personal card, pencil, pocket, wallet computerNetworks continue to limit: WAN, ISDN, and ATM?