2052 – A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years · g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 3a ....

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL

J Randers 1 J Randers 1


2052 –

A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

Jorgen Randers

Professor Center for Climate Strategy

Norwegian Business School BI

Cambridge Resilience Forum Cape Town, March 11th, 2013


J Randers 2

12 scenarios for the 21st century


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1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0

1

1

1 1

2

2

2

2

3

3

3

3 4

4

4

4

5

5

5 5

Year

5: Nonrenewable resources

3: Industrial output

4: Pollution level

2: Food output

1: Population

Limits Scenario 1: Resource crisis

Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004


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Limits Scenario 9: Sustainability

Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year 0

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

2

3

3

3 3

4 4

4

4

5

5

5

5

5: Nonrenewable resources

1: Population

2: Food output

3: Industrial output

4: Pollution level


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Limits perspective: A small and fragile world

Source: KPMG, 2010


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HUMAN ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT

CARRYING CAPACITY

1900 2100

GROWTH DEBATE

ACTION ?

Slow global response has allowed overshoot

2012

1972


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Source: Global Carbon Project, Carbon Budget 2009

Overshoot in CO2: Emissions = 2xAbsorption

1. Emissions from fossil fuels + 2. Emissions from deforestation

- 3. Absorption in oceans

- 4. Absorption in forests

= 5. Accumulating in the atmosphere


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For all numerical data and the forecast model,

consult the book website www.2052.info


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The five regions used in the 2052 forecast

Region Population 2010

(billion people)

GDP 2010

(trillion

$ pr year)

GDP per person 2010

(1000

$ pr person-year) US 0,3 13 41 China 1,3 10 7 OECD-less-US (1) 0,7 22 30 BRISE (2) 2,4 14 6 ROW (3) 2,1 8 4 Sum world 6,9 67 10

Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012

(1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc (2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies (3) The remaining ca 140 countries of the world


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Figure 4-1 Population – World 1970 to 2050

World population will peak in 2040


0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

0

2

4

6

8

10

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Birth rate (scale →)

Death rate

Population (←scale)

% / yr Gpersons

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 1


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0,0

1,2

2,4

3,6

4,8

6,0

0

30

60

90

120

150

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Gross labor productivity (scale →)

10,000$ / person-yr G$ / yr

World GDP (←scale)

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 3a

Population aged 15 to 65 (scale → →)

3.6

Gp

4.8

6.0

2.4

1.2

0.0

Figure 4-3b: Gross Domestic product – World 1970 to 2050 Definition: GDP = Population aged 15 to 65 years multiplied with Gross labour productivity

World GDP growth will slow down


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Figure 4-4: Production and Consumption – World 1970 to 2050

Global consumption will stagnate


0

30

60

90

120

150

0

8

16

24

32

40

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

World GDP (scale →)

Investment share in GDP (←scale)

G$ / yr %

Consumption (scale →)



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Figure 5-1: Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050

Energy use will peak in 2040


0

60

120

180

240

300

0

4

8

12

16

20

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

World energy use (←scale)

toe / M$ Gtoe / yr

Energy intensity = Energy use per unit of GDP (scale →)

180

G$ / yr

World GDP (scale →→)

240

300

120

60

0 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 6


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Figure 5-2: Energy Uses – World 1970 to 2052


Fossil fuel use will peak around 2030

0,0

1,3

2,6

3,9

5,2

6,5

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Oil use

Gtoe / yr

Nuclear use

Gas use

Coal use

Renewable energy use



J Randers 15

Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050.


World CO2 emissions will peak in 2030

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

10

20

30

40

50

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2 emissions (←scale)

tCO2 / toe GtCO2 / yr

Climate intensity = CO2 per unit of energy (scale →) 15

Gtoe/yr

Energy use (scale →→)

20

25

10

5



J Randers 16

Figure 5-4: Climate Change – World 1970 to 2050

Temperature will pass +2 degrees C in 2052


0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

0

100

200

300

400

500

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2 in atmosphere (←scale)

deg C ppm

Temperature rise (scale →)

0.9

m

Sea level rise (scale →→)

1.2

1.5

0.6

0.3



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Figure 6-1: Food Production – World 1970 to 2050

Food will satisfy demand – but not need


0,0

0,4

0,8

1,2

1,6

2,0

0,0

2,5

5,0

7,5

10,0

12,5

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Food production (←scale)

Gha Gt / yr

Cultivated land (scale →)

6

t/ha-yr

Gross yield (scale →→)

8

10

4

2



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Main conclusions from the 2052 forecast

♣ World population and economy will grow more slowly towards 2052

than most people expect - but still fast enough to trigger a climate crisis

♣ Consumption will stagnate

because world society will have to spend ever more on repair and adaptation

♣ Future will resemble Limits Scenario 2:

“Pollution crisis”


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After-tax disposable income – 1970 to 2050

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

(in 2005 PPP $ per person-year)

WORLD

BRISE

China

OECD

USA

RoWResidual

less US


J Randers 20 J Randers 20


The root cause: Pervasive short-termism


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What could have been done? - Globally

1. Slow population growth: Have fewer children, particularly in the rich world

2. Reduce climate gas emissions: Ban fossil fuels, first in the rich world

3. Help the poor with clean energy: Build a climate-friendly energy system for and in the poor world

4. Temper short-termism: Establish supra-national institutions, e.g. a global central bank for climate gas emissions rights

5. Establish new goals for rich society: Higher wellbeing in a world without growth


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I don’t like what I see!

[email protected] www.2052.info


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World oil production – less conventional

Source: Jeremy Grantham, GMO Quarterly Letter, April 2011


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0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Replacement fertility = 2.1 children per woman

Total fertility

Long term trend

POPULATION_BY_AGE_FEMALE_120522.xls

Fertility decline in EU-15 – 1950 to 2010


Figure A4-1 Total Fertility – EU15 1950 to 2010 Definition: Total fertility = Number of children per woman during reproductive age


J Randers 25


US annual productivity growth slows down

-6,0

-4,0

-2,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Rate of growth in labour productivity

% / yr

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 3c


J Randers 26

Figure 6-2: Biological Capacity – World 1970 to 2050

Enough land – but less of it undisturbed


0,0

0,3

0,6

0,9

1,2

1,5

0,0

2,5

5,0

7,5

10,0

12,5

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Total biocapacity (←scale)

gha / person Ggha

Unused biocapacity per person (scale →)

Non-energy footprint (←scale)

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 12a


J Randers 27


CO2 emissions per person – 1970 to 2050

0

5

10

15

20

25

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

(in tons of CO2 per person-year)

USA

China

OECD-less-USBRISE

WORLD

RoW


J Randers 28

Figure 9-1a: Past and future World - State of Affairs -1970 to 2050

World state of affairs – 1970 to 2050


0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Population

Consumption

CO2 emissions

GDP

Temperature rise

State of Affairs

Max values 9 Gp, 150 G$/yr, 50 GtCO2/yr, 150 G$/yr, 2.5 deg C



J Randers 29

Figure 9-1b: Past and future World – Production – 1970 to 2050

World production – 1970 to 2050


0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Food production

Unused biocapacity

Energy use Fraction renewable

Investment share of GDP

Production

Max values 20 Gtoe/yr, 40%, 50 %, 12,5 Gt/yr, 40%



J Randers 30

Figure 9-1c: Past and future World – Standard of Living - 1970 to 2050

World standard of living – 1970 to 2050


0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GDP per person

Consumption per person

Energy use per person

Sea level rise

Food per person

Standard of Living

Max values 3 toe/person-yr, 20,000 $/person-yr, 20,000 $/person-yr, 2 t/person-yr, 1.5 m


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2052 – A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years · g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 3a ....

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