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COUNTER NARCOTICS CONFERENCE, COMBINED MARTIME FORCES21 May 2015, Bahrain

DRUG TRAFFICKING THROUGH ARABIAN GULF ; THREATS AND THE WAY FORWARD

Hakan Demirbuken - Independent Researcher

Importance of efficient information and Intelligence sharing platforms in Arabian Gulf

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SITUATION ANALYSIS

Heroin, opium and cannabis

Synthetic drugs

KhatProduction

Drugs trade and terrorism is heavily existing around Arabian Gulf region

Cocaine

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SITUATION ANALYSIS

Weak Governance

Instability

Drug Trade

Terrorism Funding

Conflicts

There is a very high relation between drug trade and terrorism Funding…

How can we cut this relation ?

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SITUATION ANALYSIS

New Phase of Terrorism

1- Size and number of the terrorist groups increased sharply in last 20 years especially in South Asia, Middle East and Africa

2- Terrorist groups are well trained and structured – like normal regular army

3- Terrorist groups have their own logistics, hospitals , taxation systems , governors, etc….act like a normal state

4- They need more money then they needed in the past…

How do they Finance such a structure ??

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SITUATION ANALYSIS

New Threat : ISIS Network : Middle East- Gulf – South Asia – Africa – Central Asia

Estimated number of ISIS fighters - members : 40,000-50,000

Estimated cost of all ISIS fighters and support staff : US$ 1.5- 2.5 million per day –

(salary, food, accommodation) US$ 550- US$ 900 million dollars per year

Estimated cost for weapons and other military equipment : Unknown

ISIS Incomes :Oil trade : Estimated US$ 1.5 – 2 million / day - US$ 500- 750 million

per yearRansoms and other taxation : not clear

ISIS lost some oil sites recently…so income decreased..

What is the size of total terrorists under this network ? 100,000 Cost per day : US$ 3-5 million per day ?...how such amount is funded ?

Is drug trafficking / trade is a new income for ISIS ?

- It is very likely….Given that they are now in Afghanistan !

- Terrorist groups, including ISIS are located on main drug production and trafficking routes..

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SITUATION ANALYSISOpiate Trade and Terrorism Financing

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SITUATION ANALYSIS

International OC Groups, Terrorist Groups, Illegally armed groups

Local OC Groups

Local traders and corrupt officials

Afghan Farmers

Actors Sharing the US$ 65/year billion Opiate Market…

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SITUATION ANALYSISOpium Production

Global Illicit Opium Poppy Cultivation has increased around 35% between 1994-2014.

It is expected to increase further in 2015.

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SITUATION ANALYSISOpium Production

Illicit opium cultivation has increased 215% in last 20 years

Further increase expected in 2015

Another record is expected..

Cultivation can be around 240,000 ha..andopium production can be around 8,000 tons (with normal yield figure)

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SITUATION ANALYSISOpium Supply -Demand

Year

opium production(kg)

Estimated number of opiate users

Average opium per opiate user (gr)

Cultivation (ha)

Average opium area (square meter) per opiate user

2003 4,783,000 15,200,000 315 168,600 1112004 4,850,000 15,200,000 319 195,940 1292005 4,620,000 15,900,000 291 151,500 952006 5,810,000 15,800,000 368 201,000 1272007 8,090,000 15,500,000 522 235,700 1522008 6,841,000 16,500,000 415 213,003 1292009 4,953,000 16,800,000 295 185,935 1112010 4,735,000 16,800,000 282 190,662 1132011 6,983,000 16,800,000 416 207,500 1242012 4,905,000 16,400,000 299 236,320 1442103 6,883,000 16,400,000 420 296,720 1812014 7,800,000 16,400,000 476 310,000 189

There is no balance between opium production and number of opiate users..

Number of opiate users has not increased in parallel to production

So, how this can be explained ?

Why cultivation and production has increased sharply if number of users are more or less stable ?Where the demand comes from ?

CONCLUSION :

- Demand on opiates unknown- It is not clear Legal Morphine

supply is enough for world’s demand

- It is fact there is illegal opiatebased pain killer and morphine market

- It is fact terrorist organizations needs morphine and pain killers

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SITUATION ANALYSIS Where Morphine Goes ?

Morphine Flow out from Afghanistan High volume of morphine goes out from Afghanistan to Pakistan and Iran

Morphine is either used to produce heroin or to produce morphine injections

How much morphine injections needed for ISIS and who is providing ?

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SITUATION ANALYSIS Opiate Demand - Supply

Possible reasons for unbalanced demand-supply situation

A- The number of opiate users are underestimated

B- There is a demand for illegally produced opiate based pain killers,cough syrups and morphine injections.

C- Both options=== There are number of illegal pharmaceutical production near by Gulf Countries.

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SITUATION ANALYSISLatest Trends - ATS

ATS Flows …Most common drug used in the Gulf Countries

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SITUATION ANALYSISLatest Trends – Cannabis & Heroin

Heroin flows…

Cannabis Flows

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SITUATION ANALYSISDrug Consumption in Gulf Countries

Country heroin prevalenceheroin users

cocaine prevalence Cocaine users

Cannabis prevalence

Cannabis users

Amphetamines prevalence Amphetamines users

Kuwait 0.2% 3,614 N/A N/A 3.1% 65,897 0.3% 6,377Saudi Arabia 0.1% 9,443 N/A N/A 0.3% 47,214 0.4% 62,952Bahrain N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

United Arab Emirates 0.0% 695 N/A N/A 5.4% 187,608 N/A N/AQatar N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AOman N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.1% 1,678Source : UNODC

Heroin : at least 13,000 user Cocaine : unknow but estimated to be very lowCannabis : At least 300,000 users !!!ATS : At least 70,000 users

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SITUATION ANALYSISLatest Trends - Heroin flows to Africa

Heroin trafficking has increased from Makran Coast to Africa between 2010-2013 . The level of heroin trafficking through Traditional Balkan route has decreased..

But, Balkan route has geared up again since 2014…Though, still high volume of heroin goes to Africa…Africa is becoming of drug hub!

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SITUATION ANALYSISThe Way Forward

FACTS :

1- Size of terrorism organizations are much bigger that 30 years ago. And they are much more organized

2- Terrorist and Organized Crime groups heavily benefit from Drug Trade.

3- Drug trade has increased but not decreased last 30 years and expected to increase further

4- There are more conflicts which causes more people to be vulnerable. Therefore, terrorist or drug trafficking groups does not have any problem to recruit people.

PROJECTIONS

1- Middle East will continue to be center of attention for coming at least 10 years. It will be a good heaven for terrorist, OC and drug trafficking groups. Therefore Gulf countries will be under threat.

2- Drug trade and production will increase or at least will not decrease

3- Millions of vulnerable people are trappedby drug, OC and terrorist groups in Middle East.

4- The lack of efficient law enforcement in Africa will be continued to be heavily used by drug traders and terrorist groups.

5- It is not clear if the Current level of legalopium production meets the demand or now. However, it is clear that demand for legal morphine and opiate based pain killers will continue to increase at global level.

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SITUATION ANALYSISFacts

Regional IntelligenceCenter

European Intelligence Centers

GCIC

Regional or nationalInt. Centers

CARICC

CMF

Information Networking in and outside of the region.

Africa : No central or regional intelligence center !

Open seas and sea borders are used by drug traders and terrorist groups .

Therefore, Joint operations between GCIC – CMF – JPC is needed ! Information sharing mechanism between these 3 is essential.It is also essential to increase the links with Afghanistan and Pakistan Government bilaterally.

The level of joint operations or control delivery is very low in the region and between the region and Afghanistan.

JPC

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SITUATION ANALYSISThe Way Forward - Facts

Baramchatown –Helmand (Afghanistan)

Pakistan

Border

Africa

Too many uncontrolled borders..Almostimpossible to control

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SITUATION ANALYSISThe Way Forward

Information Networking

• Information is key factor for success• But information is only valuable if it is shared on

time

Research

• Power of Research : Use power of research and information analysis by using all sources (including open sources) to think faster than drug traffickers

Win Hearts

• Win hearts of vulnerable people. Reach them before drug traders or terrorist groups reaches

• Stop (or make it difficult) terrorism funding and recruitment

Traditional counter narcotics measures are not enough..

Develop a new approach on countering narcotics at national, regional and global levels..

New strategy should be developed after fully understanding the dynamics of the drug trade .It should be based on realistic targets.

Afghanistan : Find out if legal morphine / pain killers worldwide is enough or not…Possibly not. Consider this while building new strategies

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SITUATION ANALYSISPower of Networking and sharing

Success

Data

Information

Data

Intelligence

Combine resources ! (Keep in mind drug traders and terrorist groups already combined their resources)

Use all data , everything is important. Don’t miss the details..

- Details of drugs and terrorism cases,

- Monitor open sources –news

- Listen every single information

- Local information and data – monitor open sources- record daily

ONLINE and TIMELY DATA/INFO Sharing…OnlineAnalysis ..Use power of Multi layer Analysis (Research and Statistics)

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SITUATION ANALYSISThanks

Hakan Demirbuken

Free Lance Consultant

Email : Hakanstat@gmail.com