22-24 Feb. 2016 - JW Marriott, Cairo, Egypt Future ... · Russia’s New Ice-Class LNG Tanker...

Future Prospects of

the Northern Sea Route

as an International Trade Route

Dr. Bjørn Gunnarsson

Managing Director

[email protected]

Suez Canal Global Conference (Challenges & Opportunities) 22-24 Feb. 2016 - JW Marriott, Cairo, Egypt

mailto:[email protected]

The Northern Sea Route (NSR)


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1. NSR’s Economic and

Strategic Significance for Russia


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Source: Nordregio at www.nordregio.se

Map showing gas, oil and mining resources in the Arctic


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Oil & Gas Development Transport

Yamal LNG - Port Sabetta 17.6 million tons LNG per year (2021- )

Year-round operations

16 LNG tankers (172 600 m3)

240 port calls per year (1 tanker/36 h)

Novy Port Oil Field - Novy Port 8.5 million tons per year (2017- )


New tankers of 36 000 dwt

Monthly export 700 000 tons

Payakha Oil Field – Tanalau 7,3 million tons per year (2024- )


4-8 Arc7 tankers of 40 000 dwt

220 port calls per year (1 tanker/40 h)


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Russia’s New Ice-Class LNG Tanker

Veliky Novogorod


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Source: Yamal, Total 2014

Yamal’s LNG Shipping Options


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Growth of NSR’s Cargo Traffic as a Result of

Development of Russian Arctic Hydrocarbon Projects

Millions

of tons

Source: Atomflot 2015


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Estimates of Potential Traffic through NSR by 2030

Hydrocarbons Dry Bulk &

Project Cargo

Container

Cargo

50 million tons

5 million tons ?

Including cargo from

Norilsk Nickel currently

about 1.1 million tons per

year; iron ore from

Scandinavia; deliveries to

Arctic communities

Current container traffic

between North European

ports and Asia is now

about 15 million TEUs

per year

Export of hydrocarbon

products from several

energy projects in coastal

and offshore areas of the

Barents and Kara Seas

Source: Far East Development Fund 2015


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Russia’s Integrated Development Plan

for the NSR 2015-2030

Increase NSR’s total cargo volume up to 80 million tons

per year by 2030; or 20-times compared to 2014

The plan has six main focus areas to promote safer and more

reliable navigation on NSR; and strategic importance

Most of the planned cargos are oil and gas resources from the

Russian Arctic coast and continental shelf; mineral resources

Increasing cargo transport on NSR by foreign flag ships

between European and Asian markets; partnerships with

Asian countries, mainly China


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Source: VSEGEI/Rosnedra

Natural Resources of the Eurasian Arctic


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Lena

River Yenisey

River

Ob

River

Kolyma

River

NSR will Unlock the Resource Potential of the Eurasian Arctic

Murmansk

Kandalaksha Vitino

Onega Arkhangelsk

Mezen

Naryan Mar

Varandey

Amdema Sabetta

Dikson

Dudinka

Igarka

Khatanga Tiksi

Pevek

Provideniya

NSR Water Area Anadyr

Petropavlovsk-

Kamchatskiy


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2. NSR as Alternative Trade

Route NW Europe - NE Asia


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Suezmax Tanker

Vladimir Tikhonov

162 360 dwt

LNG Tanker

“ArcticAurora”

84 600 dwt

LNGC Arctic Aurora

84 604 dwt

LNGC Ob River

84 682 dwt

NSR’s Demonstration Voyages 2010-2013

Tanker Propontis

117 055 dwt

Tanker SCF Baltica

117 153 dwt

Bulk Carrier Nordic Orion

Bulk Carrier Nordic Odyssey

75 603 dwt


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Large Vessels with Cargo in 2011

Perseverance Russia to China 59 981 t gas condensate

STI Heritage Russia to Thailand 60 944 t gas condensate

Marilee Russia to China 60 098 t gas condensate

Vladimir Tikhonov Norway to Thailand 120 843 t gas condensate

Stena Poseidon Russia to Korea 57 814 t gas condensate

Perserverance Korea to France 64 400 t kerosene

Palva Russia to China 59 313 t gas condensate

Mariann Russia to Korea 61 259 t gas condensate

Affinity Russia to China 59 079 t gas condensate

Perserverance Russia to China 61 275 t gas condensate

Sanko Odyssey Russia to China 66 344 t iron-ore


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Shipments on NSR Between Ports

Located Outside the Arctic 2012-2013

Vessel Cargo Loading Port Destination Port

Stena Poseidon Jet Fuel Yosu, South Korea Porvoo, Finland

Marika Jet Fuel Yosu, South Korea Porvoo, Finland

Palva Jet Fuel Yosu, South Korea Porvoo, Finland

Nordic Odyssey Coal Vancouver, Canada Hamburg, Germany

Propontis Diesel Ulsan, South Korea Rotterdam, Holland

Mari Ugland Naphtha Zeeland, Holland Mailiao, Taiwan

Zaliv Amurskiy Diesel Onsan, South Korea Rotterdam, Holland

Nordic Bothnia General Xingang, China Amsterdam, Holland

Viktor Bakaev Jet Fuel Yosu, South Korea Rotterdam, Holland

Nordic Odyssey Coal Vancouver, Canada Pori, Finland


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NSR as an International

Trade Route?

Transport Safety

Russian nuclear icebreaker escort; Russian ice pilots; transport by ice-class vessels (Arc4); NSR admittance criteria and Polar Code requirements. Additional support infrastructure needed

Predictability & Punctuality

Attractiveness of NSR for transits is low due to the lack of predictability. Regularity of a year-round supply of goods is no less important than the cost of transportation

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NSR as an International

Trade Route?

Cargo Transport Westward & Eastward

Prerequisite for increased growth of transit shipping on the NSR is the availability of cargo transport in both east and west directions

Economy of Scale

Limited number of vessels with adequate ice class represent a limitation on the utilization of the NSR; makes NSR vulnerable to competition from much larger vessels going via the Suez or Cape

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3. NSR’s Sustainability Plan

Administration

& Management

Transport

Services

Maritime Infrastructure System

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NSR’s Administration

& Management

Minimize the risk of sailing delays due

to sea ice

A single organization needs to oversee

all NSR’s activities, services and

marketing

Tariff system needs to be user-friendly

and fees competitive to fees on southerly

routes

NSR «Authority»

Risk of Delays

Transport

Fees


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NSR’s Transport Services

Availability and readiness of icebreaking

services; optimization of icebreaking

capacity

Modernization of Russian Arctic ports;

refuge and salvage operations

Development of SAR and oil spill

response services

Major improvements in navigational

aids and communication system

Icebreakers

Port

Operations

SAR &

Oil Spill Response

Navigation &

Communication


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NSR’s Infrastructure System

Design a new integraded transportation

and logistics system for reliable and safe

cargo transport

Estimating the costs of the various

infrastructure components

Assessment of different funding

mechanism in financing long-term

capital-intensive infrastructure projects

New Integrated

Transport System

Cost Estimates

Fanancing


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Concluding Remarks

NSR’s Strategic & Economic Importance – NSR has

the potential of unlocking the natural resource

potential of the Russian Arctic

NSR as International Trade Route – A supplimentary

route for certain types of cargos serviced by a fleet of

specialized ice-class vessels on a year-round basis

NSR’s Sustainability of Usage – A number of

administrative, managment, service oriented and

infrastructure issues need to be addressed

Future NSR’s Transportation & Logistics System –

We need to understand what kind of maritime

transport infrastructure is needed for safer and more

reliable transport on a year-round basis


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Thank You!


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