Climate-Change Science and NAS Activities

 Consortium for Ocean Leadership

Washington, D.C. October 15, 2009

Ralph J. Cicerone, PresidentNational Academy of Sciences

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105

342

68

169

390

327 90

16

H2O, CO2, O3

Earth receives visible light from hot Sun and Earth radiates to space as a

blackbody at infrared wavelengths

Calculating the Surface Temperatures of Planets

for Venus

Actual Te = 730K WRONG! Greenhouse effect and clouds, high pressure

S(1 - e

for Earth, S = 1368 W/m2, = 0.3, so we calculate

Te = 255K (- 18 ºC or - 32 ºF) WRONG !

Greenhouse effect & clouds are needed

for Mars

Te = 240 to 250K (large day/night swings) OK

Greenhouse effect is very small, low pressure

WRONG !

WRONG !

OK !

Visible

Infrared

www.scrippsco2.ucsd.edu

Global CO2 Emission Estimates 1750 - 2005

CITE AS: Marland, G., T.A. Boden, and R. J. Andres. 2007. Global, Regional, and National CO2 Emissions. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A.

http://cdiac.ornl.gov

Hydro (0)

Biomass (0)

Geothermal (0)

Wind (0)

Solar (0)

Nuclear (0)

Coal 0.58

Natural Gas 0.32

Petroleum 0.70

U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions From Energy Consumptionby Source (in billion metric tons C)

Petroleum0.70

Coal0.58

Natural Gas0.32

Source: LLNL 2006; data is based on EIA-DOE 2006b.University of California, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the Department of Energy

U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions From Energy Consumptionby Usage (in billion metric tons C)

Electricity Generation

0.63

Industrial0.33

Light-Duty Vehicles

0.29

Residential0.09

Commercial0.06

Freight/ Other0.13

Aircraft0.06

Source: LLNL 2006; data is based on EIA-DOE 2006b.University of California, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the Department of Energy

GISS analysis of global surface temperature; 2008 point is 11-month mean.

Hansen and Lebedeff (1987), updated January 2009 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

Source : University of Colorado, Boulder http://sealevel.colorado.edu

Figure 1. Time series of ice mass changes for the Greenland ice sheet estimated from GRACE monthly mass solutions for the period from April 2002 to February 2009. The best-fitting quadratic trend is shown (green line). VELICOGNA 2009

Figure 2. Time series of ice mass changes for the Antarctic ice sheet estimated from GRACE monthly mass solutions for the period from April 2002 to February 2009. The best-fitting quadratic trend is shown

(green line). VELICOGNA 2009

GISS analysis of global surface temperature; 2008 point is 11-month mean.

Frohlich and Lean (2005): Recent analyses of satellite measurements do not indicate a long-term trend in solar irradiance

(the amount of energy received by the sun)

Solar irradiance through September 2008. Reference: Fröhlich, C. and J. Lean, Astron. Astrophys. Rev., 12, pp. 273--320, 2004. http://www.pmodwrc.ch/pmod.php?topic=tsi/composite/SolarConstant

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1970 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10 15 20 25 30

Transitional and Emerging Economies

Mature Market Economies

World Primary Energy Consumption, 1970-2030

Quadrillion BtuHistory Projections

207244

284308

347 365398

463511

559607

654702

Sources: History 1970-1975: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Database, April 22, 2008. History, 1980-2005: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2005 (http://www.eia.doe.gov/iea). Projections: International Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0484(2007) (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo).

Increase in coal-fired electric power

Coal-fired capacity, GWe, 2003 & USEIA projection

USA China India World

2003 310 239 67 1120 2010 319 348 95 1300

2020 345 531 140 1600

2030 457 785 161 2000

Source: US EIA, International Energy Outlook 2006

World coal-electric capacity goes up ~900 GWe by 2030, and 640 GWe of the increase is in China and India.

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756

1034

& 2008

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

Mitigation = Reduce Pace and Amount of Climate Change Caused by Humans

Adaptation = Reduce Adverse Impacts on Human Well-being from Climate Changes that Occur

Pre-Industrial 280ppm

380ppm

425 ～ 440ppm

Present

Dangerous Level

Global Carbon Cycle Management

Anthropogenic Emission 7.2 GtC / y

Absorption3.1 GtC/ y

How to control the tap

to avoid risk

industrialization

CO2 in Atmosphere

Ocean 2.2 Land 0.9

2ppm/y

ex: 2.4-2.8 rise from PI℃

Feedback 　

Adapted from Nishioka, NIES, Japan

Oceans acidifying as well as warmingpH history and “business as usual” projection

Red line is global annual average; blue lines show ocean-to-ocean and seasonal variation.

Surface ocean pH has already fallen by 0.1 pH unit. Projected additional changes are likely to have large impacts on corals and other ocean organisms that make skeletons/ shells from calcium carbonate.

America’s Climate Choices

PL 110-161 (Dept of Commerce 2008) requested the NAS to:

“investigate and study the serious and sweeping issues relating to global climate change and make recommendations regarding what steps must be taken and what strategies must be adopted in response to global climate change, including the science and technology challenges thereof.”

For more information: americaclimatechoice.org

America's Climate Choices 23 members

Adapting to the Impacts of

Climate Change

Limiting the Magnitude of

Future Climate Change

18 members 18 members

Advancing the Science of

Climate Change

20 members

Informing Effective Decisions and

Actions Related to Climate Change

16 members

6 -10 Oceanographers

Guiding QuestionsFour focused panels are writing reports on:

1. What can be done to limit the magnitude of future climate change?

2. What can be done to adapt to the impacts of climate change?

3. What can be done to better understand climate change and its interactions with human and ecological systems?

4. What can be done to inform effective decisions and actions related to climate change?

The panels will also provide input to the main committee on the next four questions …

Guiding QuestionsThe Main Committee (with input from the panels) will write a final report that addresses:

5. What short-term actions can be taken to respond effectively to climate change?

6. What promising long-term strategies, investments, and opportunities could be pursued to respond to climate change?

7. What are the major scientific and technological advances needed to better understand and respond effectively to climate change?

8. What are the major impediments (e.g., practical, institutional, economic, ethical, intergenerational, etc.) to responding to climate change, and what can be done to overcome these impediments?

Science in the Federal Government – 2009

• Presidential speeches and commitments

• Scientists in top positions

• new PCAST