25 January 2021 Sector Update
Indian Chemical Sector
HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters
Steering well through the pandemic! The Indian chemical industry holds an integral position in the global market.
It is the sixth-largest globally, and the third-largest in Asia with a market size
of ~USD180bn. The Indian chemical industry is in a sweet spot with
tremendous opportunity and favourable tailwinds. It should experience
significant growth in the coming years, driven by rising household incomes,
the existent consumption gap, favourable government policies, and a huge
export opportunity.
The rising disposable income will lead to a shift in consumer preferences
towards premier products. There will be a shift in consumption from
commoditised products towards premier products across all industries.
Currently, imports meet a large part of the domestic demand for speciality and
downstream chemicals, offering much headroom growth in local production.
In addition to significant growth in domestic demand, the geopolitical shifts
underway in the international markets offer India an opportunity to emerge as
a global production and export powerhouse.
The focus on investments to develop product and process capabilities, research
& development abilities, and supportive policies should drive the industry's
growth. We expect aggregate revenue of our chemical universe to grow at a
14% CAGR over FY21-24E, while APAT CAGR would be ahead of revenue
growth 17% for the companies under our coverage. Average RoCE of the
companies in our chemical universe would expand by 50bps to 18% in FY24E
despite their heavy Capex investments. The aggregate OCF of our chemical
universe should grow by 45% from INR 35bn in FY21E to INR 51bn in FY24E.
We roll forward the DCF-based target prices for companies under our coverage
to Mar ‘23 (earlier Sep’22). We maintain a BUY rating for AIL, Galaxy
Surfactants, Sudarshan Chemical, and an ADD rating for NFIL, while a SELL
rating for Vinati Organics. We have increased the target prices for Alkyl
Amines, Balaji Amines and SRF, but have downgraded their rating from BUY
to ADD. We like these stocks owing to the expectation of their attractive
revenue growth, margin levers and capacity expansion over the next two years.
The downgrade is largely on the back of 20-50% increase in the stock prices in
the past three months.
Rising disposable income to increase the demand for value-added products
With the rise in disposable incomes and an increase in urbanisation, consumer
preferences will shift towards a healthier lifestyle and environmentally friendly
products. It will boost the demand for value-added products from end-user
industries. India's per capita chemical consumption continues to be significantly
lower than that of the developed markets. India is one of the fastest-growing
consumer markets globally, wherein per capita chemical consumption is low,
allowing much headroom for growth.
China plus one policy to create a massive opportunity
The ongoing global trade war and changing geopolitical scenario triggered by the
spread of the pandemic will encourage more global chemical companies to
diversify their supply sources. Indian chemical manufacturers are in a sweet spot
with policy support from the government. China is the largest chemical producer
globally (~36% market share). India's share in the global chemical market (~3%)
will be doubled by a shift of merely 10% of China's chemical business to India.
Company Reco TP Upside
(%)
AIL BUY 1,440 21.5
Alkyl Amines ADD 5,310 8.9
Balaji Amines ADD 1,280 14.4
Galaxy Surfactants BUY 2,600 18.0
NFIL ADD 2,720 7.0
SRF ADD 6,080 5.3
Sudarshan Chemical BUY 610 20.8
Vinati Organics SELL 1,020 -18.7
FY22E PER (x) P/B (x)
AIL 41.5 5.4
Alkyl Amines 37.8 10.1
Balaji Amines 21.3 3.7
Galaxy Surfactants 23.5 5.1
NFIL 42.1 6.8
SRF 34.5 5.1
Sudarshan Chemical 25.4 4.8
Vinati Organics 37.8 7.2
Nilesh Ghuge
+91-22-6171-7342
Harshad Katkar
+91-22-6171-7319
Rutvi Chokshi
+91-22-6171-7356
Page | 2
Chemical: Sector Update
Contents
Story in charts ............................................................................................................... 3
Rising disposable income will increase the demand for value-added products . 4
China Plus One policy to create a massive opportunity for Indian players ........ 5
Scope for import substitution ..................................................................................... 6
Domestic availability of petrochemical intermediates ............................................ 8
Research and development spending in the Indian chemical space ................... 10
Focus on growth capital ............................................................................................ 11
Government initiatives .............................................................................................. 12
The impact of COVID-19 outbreak on the sector ................................................... 13
Financials ..................................................................................................................... 14
Page | 3
Chemical: Sector Update
Story in charts
Exhibit 1: Per capita chemical consumption vs per
capita GDP
Exhibit 2: Country-wise chemical sales: top 10 in 2018
Source: World Development Indicators, HSIE Research Source: Cefic
Exhibit 3: India's chemical and petrochemical
consumption trend
Exhibit 4: India's chemical and petrochemical
imports-exports volumes
Source: Chemical and petrochemical statistics, HSIE Research Source: Chemical and petrochemical statistics, HSIE Research
Exhibit 5: India's exports-imports and the trade deficit
of chemicals and petrochemicals (USD bn)
Exhibit 6: R&D spending has grown at a 16% CAGR
over FY10-19 in the domestic chemical industry
Source: Ministry of Chemicals & Fertilizers Department of Chemicals &
Petrochemicals
Source: Company, HSIE Research
1,198
565 468
180 127 89 76 76 69 53
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Ch
ina
Eu
rop
ean
Un
ion
US
A
Jap
an
So
uth
ko
rea
Ind
ia
Ta
iwa
n
Ru
ssia
Bra
zil
Sa
ud
i Ara
bia
EUR bn
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
(000 tonnes)Chemicals Petrochemicals Total
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
(000 tonnes) Imports Exports
29.1 27.7 28.4 33.2
40.5 43.0 40.0 40.1
48.2
56.5
(13.9) (12.3) (11.8) (14.9) (16.0)(20.0)
(10.0)
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
USD bn Exports Imports Trade deficit
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
FY
10
FY
11
FY
12
FY
13
FY
14
FY
15
FY
16
FY
17
FY
18
FY
19
R&D expense (INR mn)-LHS YoY %-RHS
Page | 4
Chemical: Sector Update
Exhibit 7: Capex has grown at a 17% CAGR over FY15-20
in the domestic chemical industry
Exhibit 8: Government initiatives
Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, HSIE Research
Rising disposable income will increase the demand
for value-added products
There is a strong correlation between per capita chemical consumption and per capita
GDP. With the rise in disposable incomes and an increase in urbanisation, consumer
preferences will shift towards a healthier lifestyle and environmentally friendly
products. It will boost the demand for value-added products from end-user
industries such as paints, textiles, adhesives, personal and home care. This bodes well
for the domestic consumption outlook of the chemicals industry.
India's per capita chemical consumption continues to be significantly lower than that
of the developed markets (Exhibit 9). India's per capita consumption of chemical
products is merely at USD 91 compared to domestic consumption of chemical
products in China, US, Germany at USD 1,231/1,616/1,795. India is one of the fastest-
growing consumer markets globally, wherein per capita chemical consumption is
low, representing a large headroom for growth.
Exhibit 9: Per capita chemical consumption vs per capita GDP
Source: World Development Indicators, HSIE Research
Government Policies
100% FDI
PCIPR
Plastic Parks
Corporate tax
deduction
Schemes for other sectors
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
FY
10
FY
11
FY
12
FY
13
FY
14
FY
15
FY
16
FY
17
FY
18
FY
19
FY
20
Capex (INR bn)-LHS YoY %-RHS
Page | 5
Chemical : Sector Update
China Plus One policy to create a massive opportunity
for Indian players
To cut their costs, many MNCs import basic chemicals from China, which has
resulted in a high dependency on the Chinese chemical industry. Chemicals form a
large part of China's exports to the US (EUR 10.9bn in CY2017) and Europe (EUR
16.4bn in CY2017). Any disruption caused in the supply chain affects the downstream
production of these global chemical companies.
In the past decade, environmental crackdown (2008,2015-17), trade war (2017-2019),
and the outbreak of viruses (2009, 2020) have led to a breakdown of this supply chain
and impacted the business of MNCs. It could increase MNCs' urgency to reduce
dependence on China and push their boards to ponder upon making other countries
as their valuable partner.
There are favourable tailwinds for Indian chemical manufacturers, owing to the
ongoing global trade war and changing geopolitical scenario triggered by the spread
of the pandemic, which will encourage more global chemical companies to diversify
their supply sources. Indian chemical manufacturers are in a sweet spot with policy
support from the government.
China is the largest chemical producer globally, contributing 35.8% of global chemical
sales in 2018 with sales of EUR 1,198bn. India's contribution is merely 3% with total
sales of EUR89 bn. India's share in the global chemical market will be doubled by a
shift of merely 10% of China's chemical business to India.
Exhibit 10: Country-wise chemical sales: top 10 in 2018
Source: Cefic
Exhibit 11: China's share in global chemical sales increased to 36% in 2018
Source: Cefic
1,198
565 468
180 127 89 76 76 69 53
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Ch
ina
Eu
rop
ean
Un
ion
US
A
Jap
an
So
uth
ko
rea
Ind
ia
Ta
iwa
n
Ru
ssia
Bra
zil
Sa
ud
i
Ara
bia
EUR bn
China
1,198 36%
EU
565
17%NAFTA
530
16%
Rest of Asia
367
11%
Japan
180
5%
Rest of Europe
129
4%
South Korea
127
4%
Latin America
118
3%
India
89
3%
Africa
24
1%Rest of World,
21
0%
Page | 6
Chemical : Sector Update
Scope for import substitution
The Indian chemical industry is one of the fastest-growing industries in the world. It
ranks 3rd in Asia and is the 6th largest market in the world for output after the US,
China, Germany, Japan and South Korea. The industry's growth is primarily driven
by the country's consumption growth story and export opportunity. Chemical and
petrochemical consumption grew from 41.3 mn tonne (mmt) in FY14 to 47.8mmt in
FY18 at a CAGR of 3.7%. During the same period, imports jumped from 13.8mmt in
FY14 to 18.7mmt in FY18 at a CAGR of 8%, while exports increased from 5.9mmt in
FY14 to 8.9mmt in FY18 at a CAGR of 5.8%. India is a net importer of chemicals and
petrochemicals. This provides an opportunity for the Indian chemical manufacturers
for import substitution. Besides, the per capita consumption of chemicals in India is
meagre compared to other developing countries. It makes India a desirable
destination for investment and growth.
Exhibit 12: India's chemical and petrochemical consumption trend
Source: Chemical and petrochemical statistics
Exhibit 13: India's chemical and petrochemical imports-exports volumes
Source: Chemical and petrochemical statistics
India had a chemical trade deficit of USD 15.9 bn in FY19. Analysis of India's
chemical exports and imports opens the door to two opportunities: (1) Building self-
sufficiency in chemicals and petrochemicals to plug the domestic supply shortfall,
and (2) increasing exports of value-added products and speciality chemicals.
The chemical industry already contributes significantly to India's export-import
trade. Share of chemical and petrochemical imports was 11% in India's total imports
value in FY19, up from 9.6% in FY15, while in exports it swelled to 12.3% in FY19
from 9.4% in FY15. Still, the country's share in the global chemical and petrochemical
trade remains only at 3%. This shows a significant growth opportunity for Indian
chemical companies.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
(000 tonnes) Chemicals Petrochemicals Total
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
(000 tonnes) Imports Exports Net imports
Page | 7
Chemical : Sector Update
Exhibit 14: India's exports-imports and the trade deficit of chemicals and
petrochemicals (USD bn)
Source: Ministry of Chemicals & Fertilizers Department of Chemicals and Petrochemicals
Exhibit 15: Share of chemical and petrochemical exports and imports in total value
Source: Ministry of Chemicals & Fertilizers Department of Chemicals and Petrochemicals
29.1 27.7 28.4 33.2
40.5 43.0 40.0 40.1
48.2
56.5
(13.9) (12.3) (11.8) (14.9) (16.0)(20.0)
(10.0)
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
USD bn Exports Imports Trade deficit
9.4
10.610.3
11.2
12.3
9.6
10.5 10.4 10.611
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
% Share in total exports Share in total imports
Page | 8
Chemical : Sector Update
Domestic availability of petrochemical intermediates
Petrochemical intermediates are the building blocks for downstream speciality
chemicals. India depends mostly on imports for petrochemical intermediates (Exhibit
16). The increasing demand for petrochemical intermediates from speciality chemical
manufacturers has resulted in the diversion of ethylene and propylene to produce
petrochemical intermediates. The upstream petrochemical suppliers like oil refiners
and petrochemical producers have announced projects where ethylene or propylene
is used as a raw material to manufacture final products. (Exhibit 17).
BPCL at Kochi, under the Propylene Derivatives Petrochemical Project (PDPP), will
produce Oxo Alcohols, Acrylates (used in personal care products and cosmetics) and
Polyols (used in paints and coatings). A JV of BASF-Adani-ADNOC has announced
to produce acrylic value chain comprising of glacial acrylic acid (GAA), Oxo-C4
(butanols and 2-ethyl hexanol), butyl acrylate (BA) and potentially other downstream
products. Propylene will be the key raw material to produce these products.
Ethylene is mainly used to manufacture polymers. The next most significant use of
ethylene is to produce ethylene oxide and its derivatives like ethoxylates (used in
shampoo and personal care products), glycol ethers (used as a solvent and fuel) and
ethanolamines (used in surfactants and personal care products). Ethoxylates (EO) is
the primary raw material for Galaxy Surfactants and Aarti Surfactants.
Various banks have agreed upon extending lending to sugar mills to increase the
capacity of distilleries. This will lead to an expected increase in ethanol capacity by
6bn litres. OMCs will ensure offtake from sugar mills, while the government will bear
an interest subvention of INR 40.5bn. This will put pressure on ethanol prices in the
domestic market. Ethanol is the key raw material for Alkyl Amines and Balaji
Amines, used to produce ethyl amines and value-added derivatives of ethyl amines,
which are used as solvents or raw material by pharmaceutical and agrochemical
companies.
Exhibit 16: Net imports of key petrochemical intermediates (in 000kg)
Chemicals FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
C4-Raffinate 21,439 13,010 15,825 20,050 48,702 44,558
Di-Ethylene Glycol (17,577) (12,161) (10,903) (10,608) (9,216) (9,443)
Ethylene Dichloride (By Product) 439,528 465,271 584,195 503,971 668,473 562,496
Phthalic Anhydride (PAN) 31,752 13,716 39,355 50,025 92,571 118,306
Vinyl Chloride Monomer (VCM) (By Product) 303,041 317,887 358,872 344,424 484,390 457,532
Nylon Industrial Yarn/Tyre Cord 76 295 256 161 240 251
Polypropylene Staple Fibre (14,728) (10,381) (5,719) (7,816) (6,295) (4,619)
Methanol 1,228,521 1,590,166 1,667,862 1,624,833 1,773,826 1,975,718
Acetic Acid 657,459 705,895 784,396 834,895 872,295 919,477
Phenol and its salts 211,954 198,107 241,928 278,174 283,822 227,084
Ethyl Vinyl Acetate 113,548 138,273 163,991 143,261 182,447 178,154
Total synthetic rubber 48,854 50,239 56,254 57,464 62,688 70,047
Mono Ethylene Glycol 753,692 930,324 1,039,343 1,173,533 929,015 342,131
Purified Terephthalic Acid 978,068 1,044,522 523,865 152,713 309,172 407,334
Caprolactum 22,980 32,276 44,577 51,895 58,360 66,420
Dimethyl Terephthalate (DMT) 1,785 2,094 2,215 1,760 2,256 1,454
Source: Department of commerce
Page | 9
Chemical : Sector Update
Exhibit 17: Upcoming projects which will ease the supply of domestic petrochemicals and petrochemical
intermediates
Sr no Promoters Products/Project Place of the
project
Date of
commissioning
1 ADNOC, Adani, BASF and Borealis Propane dehydrogenation (PDH) unit Mundra 2024
2 Indian Oil Corporation Limited Integrated Para-Xylene (PX) and Purified Terephthalic
Acid (PTA) complex Paradip 2024
3 BASF India Ltd Double the capacity for polymer dispersions Dahej 2021
4 Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd Refinery expansion to 18 MTPA-to focus on
petrochemicals such as ethylene, propylene and butane Mangalore NA
5 Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited Refinery cum petrochemical complex at Cauvery Basin
Refinery including a Polypropylene unit Nagapattinam NA
6 Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Limited Butene-1 and 2nd Stage Hydrogenation of Pyrolysis
Gasoline (HPG) plant Lepetkata NA
7 Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd Greenfield refinery-cum-petrochemical project Barmer 2022
8 Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd Speciality petrochemicals plant to produce Acrylic
Acid, Oxo Alcohols and Acrylates Kochi NA
9 Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd Speciality petrochemicals plant producing Polyols Kochi 2024
10 Deepak Nitrite Isopropyl alcohol Dahej 2021
11 Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilisers and Chemicals Acetic Acid Vadodara NA
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Page | 10
Chemical : Sector Update
Research and development spending in the Indian
chemical space
Indian chemical companies have augmented investments in R&D activities over the
past decade, hoping for a brighter future. Aggregate R&D expenditure incurred by 28
leading chemical companies considered by us has grown at a 16% CAGR over FY10-
19, while the revenue has grown at an 11% CAGR over the same period. INR 4.5bn
was spent in FY19 by these companies on R&D as compared to INR 1.1bn in FY10.
R&D expense as a percentage of revenue has remained at 0.4-0.5% from FY15-19.
Over last four years, companies which have expanded their product portfolio to
supply molecules/chemicals to pharmaceutical and agrochemical industries, have
invested heavily in developing R&D capacity (AIL 31%, SRF 17%, NFIL 12% CAGR).
AIL is developing its 5th R&D centre in Navi Mumbai. NFIL and AIL turn these R&D
capabilities into contract manufacturing and research services. R&D teams of SRF
and Galaxy Surfactants work in close collaboration with customers to develop new
molecules.
Exhibit 18: R&D spending has grown at a 16% CAGR over FY10-19 in the domestic
chemical industry
Source: Company, HSIE Research | The R&D expense here refers to aggregate R&D expenses incurred by
28 domestic chemical companies considered by us having a market capitalisation greater or equal to INR
10bn.
Exhibit 19: R&D spending in the chemical sector: India vs the globe
Source: Cefic Chemdata International 2019
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
FY
10
FY
11
FY
12
FY
13
FY
14
FY
15
FY
16
FY
17
FY
18
FY
19
R&D expense (INR mn)-LHS YoY %-RHS
26
.3
0.8
30
.9
1.5 2.7
9.5
3.1
20
.6
4.6
19
.6
0.5
23
.3
1.4 3.3
27
.5
4.7
16
.3
3.5
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
US
A
Bra
zil
EU
Sw
itz
erla
nd
Ind
ia
Ch
ina
So
uth
Ko
rea
Jap
an
Res
t o
f th
e
wo
rld
Global chemical R&D mix %
CY2008 CY2018%
Page | 11
Chemical : Sector Update
Focus on growth capital
The Indian chemical industry has been revving its Capex over the past decade to be
well equipped and more competitive to grab future opportunities. Aggregate Capex
incurred by 31 leading chemical companies considered by us has grown at a 17%
CAGR over FY15-20, and a 9% CAGR over FY10-20. INR 95bn was spent in FY20 by
these companies on Capex compared to INR 39bn in FY10. Capex as a percentage of
revenue was 9.6% in FY20, the highest ever in the past decade.
Rapid investment in capacities over the past five years has provided a boost to the
speciality segment. Our speciality chemicals universe predominantly caters to the
demand of the pharmaceutical and agrochemical industries. Companies are
continuing to spend heavily on Capex to meet these industries' demand as they pose
great growth opportunities, given the current pandemic situation. Some companies
have deferred their Capex investments due to the COVID-19 crisis, but have not
abandoned them.
Exhibit 20: Capex has grown at a 17% CAGR over FY15-20 in the domestic chemical
industry
Source: Company, HSIE Research | The cap-ex here refers to aggregate cap-ex incurred by 31 domestic
chemical companies considered by us having a market capitalisation greater or equal to INR 10bn.
Cap-ex = Purchase of fixed assets - sale of fixed assets + investment in subsidiaries + advances for capital
expenditure.
Exhibit 21: India and China lead capital intensity in the chemical space globally
Source: Cefic Chemdata International 2019 and Cefic analysis 2019 | * North American Free Trade
Agreement, ** Rest of Europe covers Switzerland, Norway, Turkey, Russia and Ukraine; *** Asia excluding
China, India, Japan and South Korea.
11
.6
12 1
9.4 24
.4
41
33
.8
25
.4
19
.9 29
.5
21
.5
14
.2
11
.1 16
.2
16
.5 23
.3 32
.6
19
.1
10
.8 19
.1
20
.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
NA
FT
A*
La
tin
Am
eric
a
EU
Res
t o
f
Eu
rop
e**
Ind
ia
Ch
ina
So
uth
Ko
rea
Jap
an
Res
t o
f A
sia
***
Res
t o
f th
e
wo
rld
Capex as a % of value added
CY2008 CY2018%
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
FY
10
FY
11
FY
12
FY
13
FY
14
FY
15
FY
16
FY
17
FY
18
FY
19
FY
20
Capex (INR bn)-LHS YoY %-RHS
Page | 12
Chemical : Sector Update
Exhibit 22: Capex trend of our chemical coverage universe
Source: Company, HSIE Research | We have considered data of our chemical coverage companies for this
chart
Government initiatives
The government of India has already allowed 100% FDI in the chemical sector. The
total FDI in the sector till December-19 was USD 17.4bn, which implies a headroom
for further investment in the sector.
The government has announced four petroleum, chemical and petrochemical
investment regions (PCPIR) and six plastic parks to boost chemicals production. Out
of these four PCPIRs, only the one in Dahej has received meaningful investment from
industry players. We expect the Make in India initiatives from the government to
encourage investment in these dedicated zones.
In September 2019, a provision had been inserted in the Income-tax Act reducing the
effective tax rate to 25.17% from 33.69% for all domestic companies. For the
companies incorporated on or after 1st October 2019 which have commenced their
production before March 2023, the effective tax rate shall be 17.01%. Chemical
companies are in a sweet spot to take advantage of the scheme as their project
completion time is between 18-24 months. Few chemical companies have already
formed new subsidiaries and announced greenfield projects under their newly
formed subsidiaries to take advantage of lower tax rates.
Chemical industry's growth is linked to the growth of its end-user industries like
pharmaceuticals, automobiles, real estate, textile etc. PMI scheme for the
pharmaceutical industry and liquidity infusion to support the real estate industry
will support the chemical industry's growth in the near to medium term.
Exhibit 23: Government initiatives
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Government Policies
100% FDI
PCIPR
Plastic Parks
Corporate tax
deduction
Schemes for other sectors
Page | 13
Chemical : Sector Update
The impact of COVID-19 outbreak on the sector
The coronavirus crisis has shuttered businesses and disrupted supply chains
worldwide, forcing the companies in the sector to perform economic savings to
survive. Crisis control presents an excellent opportunity to execute cost-cutting
measures.
Being in the B2B business, chemical companies operate on moderate margins. The
pandemic provided an opportunity to cut down on various costs to improve their
margins. The companies reviewed and refined their personal and operational
expenditures. Chemical companies prudently postponed their Capex plans which
they had announced before the pandemic to focus on their cash flows.
During the pandemic, companies in the chemical sector saved various costs like
travelling, marketing and sales-related due to restricted movement. During this time,
the companies invested heavily in putting forward a robust IT infrastructure which
helped them save on certain operating and administration costs.
Exhibit 24: Op-ex margin trend during the pandemic
Source: Company, HSIE Research | We have considered data of our chemical coverage companies for this
chart
Exhibit 25: EBITDA margin trend during the pandemic
Source: Company, HSIE Research | We have considered data of our chemical coverage companies for this
chart
25%
26%
27%
28%
3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21
Op-ex margin %
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21
EBITDA margin %
Page | 14
Chemical : Sector Update
Financials
The strong demand from end-user industries, focusing on growth Capex and entry
into new chemistries and molecules, shall drive earnings' growth for chemical
companies in the years to come. We expect aggregate revenue of our chemical
universe to grow at a 14% CAGR over FY21-24E, while APAT CAGR would be ahead
of revenue growth 17% for the companies under our coverage. The aggregate OCF of
our chemical coverage universe to grow by 45% from INR 35bn in FY21E to INR 51bn
in FY24E.
Exhibit 26: Revenue trend
Source: Company, HSIE Research | We have considered data of our chemical coverage companies for this
chart
Exhibit 27: EBITDA trend
Source: Company, HSIE Research | We have considered data of our chemical coverage companies for this
chart
Exhibit 28: APAT trend
Source: Company, HSIE Research | We have considered data of our chemical coverage companies for this
chart
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
FY
18
FY
19
FY
20
FY
21
E
FY
22
E
FY
23
E
FY
24
E
Revenue (INR bn)
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
FY
18
FY
19
FY
20
FY
21
E
FY
22
E
FY
23
E
FY
24
E
EBITDA (INR bn)
-
10
20
30
40
50
FY
18
FY
19
FY
20
FY
21
E
FY
22
E
FY
23
E
FY
24
E
APAT (INR bn)
Page | 15
Chemical : Sector Update
Exhibit 29: RoE (%)
Source: Company, HSIE Research | We have considered data of our chemical coverage companies for this
chart Exhibit 30: RoCE (%)
Source: Company, HSIE Research | We have considered data of our chemical coverage companies for this
chart
Exhibit 31: Peer valuation table
Company CMP
(INR) RECO
TP
(INR)
P/E (x) RoE (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Dividend yield (%) FCFF yield (%)
FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E
AIL 1,185 BUY 1,440 45.5 41.5 32.0 14.3 13.8 15.6 25.3 22.2 18.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 (1.5) 0.9 1.6
Alkyl Amines 4,875 ADD 5,310 43.3 37.8 33.5 35.8 30.5 26.6 30.3 26.1 22.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.1 1.9 2.7
Balaji Amines 1,119 ADD 1,280 26.4 21.3 18.8 17.1 17.5 16.6 16.1 13.2 11.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.3 1.2 1.7
Galaxy
Surfactants 2,204 BUY 2,600 28.2 23.5 20.8 23.5 23.5 22.8 18.1 15.5 13.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 2.6 1.1 2.9
NFIL 2,542 ADD 2,720 58.3 42.1 33.6 14.1 17.1 18.9 36.8 26.4 20.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 1.7
SRF 5,774 ADD 6,080 34.9 34.5 31.7 18.3 15.9 15.1 19.6 18.8 17.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.4 1.4 2.1
Sudarshan
Chemical 505 BUY 610 29.2 25.4 19.9 19.0 19.7 22.6 16.2 14.1 11.9 1.4 1.6 2.3 0.3 1.3 2.4
Vinati Organics 1,255 SELL 1,020 44.4 37.8 34.4 20.9 20.7 19.1 33.8 27.6 24.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 (1.2) (0.7) (0.7)
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Exhibit 32: Change in estimates, TP and rating
Company CMP
(INR)
Rating TP Old EPS New EPS Est Change (%)
Old New Old New FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E
AIL 1,185 BUY BUY 1,285 1,440 24.9 28.3 36.8 26.1 28.5 37.0 4.6 0.8 0.7
Alkyl Amines 4,875 BUY ADD 4,025 5,310 112.5 128.9 145.5 112.5 128.9 145.5 - - -
Balaji Amines 1,119 BUY ADD 1,000 1,280 42.5 52.5 59.5 42.5 52.5 59.5 - - -
Galaxy Surfactants 2,204 BUY BUY 2,265 2,600 78.0 93.7 105.9 78.0 93.7 105.9 - - -
NFIL 2,542 ADD ADD 2,410 2,720 43.6 60.5 74.8 43.6 60.5 75.7 - - 1.2
SRF 5,774 BUY ADD 5,600 6,080 170.5 172.7 187.7 165.4 167.5 182.1 (3.0) (3.0) (3.0)
Sudarshan Chemical 505 BUY BUY 550 610 17.3 19.9 25.3 17.3 19.9 25.3 - - -
Vinati Organics 1,255 SELL SELL 925 1,020 28.3 33.2 36.5 28.3 33.2 36.5 - - -
Source: Company, HSIE Research
0%
20%
40%
60%
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E
AIL Alkyl Amines Balaji Amines
Galaxy Surfactants NFIL SRF
Sudarshan Chemical Vinati Organics
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E
AIL Alkyl Amines Balaji Amines
Galaxy Surfactants NFIL SRF
Sudarshan Chemical Vinati Organics
Page | 16
Chemical : Sector Update
Rating Criteria
BUY: >+15% return potential
ADD: +5% to +15% return potential
REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential
SELL: > 10% Downside return potential
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