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PERFORMANCE SNAPSHOT

Exchange Commodity Open High Low Close

Close

% Change Volume

Volume %

Change Open Interest

Open Interest

% Change

Copper 6495 6875 6470 6770 5.21 154,401 -4.86 3,236 16.03

Zinc 1770 1893.75 1752 1873 8.27 62,776 -19.91 2,052 -29.19

Lead 1765 1850 1760 1815 4.01 26,694 -7.67 750 -44.81

Nickel 19800 20418 19131 19750 0.82 21,115 -29.51 331 -48.44

Aluminium 1948 2019 1928 1997 2.73 96,762 -18.05 3,375 -25.30

Copper 298.95 317.6 298.95 317.1 6.52 78,324 75.83 9,267 16.64

Zinc 81.1 87.3 81.1 86.45 7.26 10,101 25.35 2,067 18.18

Lead 81.35 85.4 81.35 85.05 5.26 9,236 38.89 2,000 27.80

Nickel 919.4 937.3 897 924.2 1.68 31,940 34.06 4,330 84.73

Aluminium 90.4 92.4 89.4 92.05 2.39 3,841 108.30 902 103.61

LME 3-mth

Forward

(USD/tonne)

MCX Futures

(Rs./Kg)

MARKET RECAP

In the previous week, metals experienced gains on account of Chinese currency revaluation giving strength to economy,

weakness in dollar index, and rise in consumption from the world’s largest consumer, China. Investors believed that most of the

bad news is overdone in the market and thus re-entered the market to take advantage of low pricing. Moreover, China waiving

the export would curb higher supplies in the market and thus could re-balance the demand supply equilibrium

China decided to loosen the 23 month’s old Yuan peg to dollar, fixed in July 2008 as the global financial crisis evolved—a move

to prevent declines in Western currencies from harming the exports. Base metals and crude oil were the major beneficiaries

from as a stronger Yuan would stimulate demand of imported goods and also minimize the risk of inflation

The daily consumption for refined copper in China grew 5% in May from April, as a fall in imports was offset by rising output

and a drop in stock levels. Copper consumption came in at 700,000 tonnes last month, versus 650,000 in April

The FOMC kept the key rate unchanged at 0.25% and reiterated its pledge to it for "an extended period". The fiscal crisis in

Europe, low inflation and high rate of unemployment in US become the cause of delayed economic recovery

China retained 13 to 15% on aluminium product exports, while scrapping from July 15 onwards tax rebates of 5% on exports

of semi-finished products made from five other base metals, in a bid to avert further pain for an aluminium industry battling

anti-dumping charges that have hurt exports

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

The Existing home sales fell 2.2% to a much lower-than-expected annual sales rate of 5.66 million (April revised slightly higher

to 5.79 million)

Home prices for government-sponsored mortgages rose 0.8% in April on top of March's revised 0.2% gain, a gain that marked

a shift higher for the series (March initially reported at plus 0.3%)

The Sales of new single-family houses were 32.7% below the revised April 2010 rate and 18.3% below the rate in May 2009.

New home sales registered for May were at 300,000 as compare to the expectations of 410,000 while prior of 504,000

Jobless claims fell back in the June 19 week, down 19,000 to 457,000--off the 4,000 upward revisions in prior week. While,

continuing claims decline by 45,000 to 4.548 million

New orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2010 decreased 1.1% from April, to $192.0 billion. Excluding

transportation, new orders increased 0.9% from the prior month, to $145.1 billion

Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 2.7% in the Q1-2010, following an increase of 5.6% in Q4-2009

26 June 2010

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INDUSTRIAL UPDATES

Copper mines in Zambia, Africa's top producer, are back in full production after a nationwide blackout halted output last week.

Power blackouts are frequent and are a concern for the foreign companies who own most of the mines in N-W provinces

The world copper market moved to deficit in of 1,000 tonnes in Q1-2010, compared with a surplus of 139,000 tonnes a year

ago when demand was down due to the global recession. The International Copper Study Group stated the output totaled 4.615

million tonnes while consumption was at 4.616 million

Chinese demand for primary aluminium is likely to nearly triple to 43.6 million tonnes in 2020 from an estimated 15.5 million

tonnes this year, while Alcoa, the world's biggest aluminium producer, said inventories would continue an ascent to record

highs and that it was mulling investment opportunities in thermal and hydropower-rich Iceland

The Japan Copper and Brass Association stated that Japan's output of rolled copper products rose to 72,627 tonnes in May on a

seasonally adjusted basis, up 50.4% from a year earlier

OUTLOOK

The migration of some Wall Street's biggest banks into physical aluminum market is a strategic progression towards creation

of an exchange-traded fund, as per the director of material management with the world's largest aluminum producer, Alcoa.

There is plenty of risk capital to finance metal—being one of the reasons why the ETFs are becoming more attractive

Australia, the largest shipper of iron ore and coal, is likely to alter rather than scrap a proposed mining tax of 40% after the

appointment of new Prime Minister Julia Gillard. The mining majors like BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto has stopped their

campaigns after this news and the shares of the companies rose

China is considering raising processing standards for used lead-acid batteries—that may boost extraction rates and production

of recycled lead. A higher production could mean a supply rise for the world given the country is the world's top producer

The data release from the US includes Personal Income and Spending, ISM Manufacturing, Vehicle Sales, Unemployment rate,

change in Non-farm payrolls, Initial Jobless Claims, and Continuing Claims. As per the Bloomberg expectations, most of the data

releases are disconcerting in the market as thus would pressurize prices to wade low

Next week, the base metal complex might see a correction after the long rally in the previous week. The off-putting data

releases might curb the demand for industrial metals as suggested by falling vehicle sales and less jobs being added in both

private and government sector. Weakening job market could reduce consumer spending which subsequently derail the overall

economic growth. Consumer confidence measure is also expected to decline further. Factory orders are likely to turn down

hopes of recovery. Manufacturing activities are uninspiring, suggested by ISM manufacturing and ISM prices paid. Overall

prices are expected to take a respite, while weaker dollar could limit the downside

Indices Last Week This Week % ChangeDow Jones Ind. Avg. 10450.64 10143.81 -2.94%S&P 500 Index 1117.51 1076.76 -3.65%FTSE 100 Index 5250.84 5046.47 -3.89%Nikkie 225 9995.02 9737.48 -2.58%Shanghai Composite 2513.22 2552.82 1.58%Sensex 17570.82 17574.00 0.02%

Currency Last Week This Week % ChangeDollar Index 85.699 85.313 -0.45%

EUR/USD 1.2388 1.2369 -0.15%GBP/USD 1.4824 1.5063 1.61%

USD/INR 46.1744 46.29 0.25%

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LME 3-Forward S $ 1749 R $ 1963

MCX- July S 80 R 92

Zinc –July MCX: Buy in the range 83-84 targeting 89 then

94 with stop loss at 81

LME 3-Forward S $1700 R $1967

MCX- July S 79 R 90

TECHNICAL PREFACE

LME ZINC

Zinc-3month Forward-LME: Zinc prices traded higher for

the whole week by posting a gain of 8.2%. Last week,

market made a high of 1893.75 and finally settled at 1873.

Market has broken trend line resistance at 1783 in

penultimate week thereafter prices is witnessing higher

highs and higher lows in short-term trend suggesting

bullish view for the week. As per Fibonacci principles,

market has broken 23.6% retracement (2550-1578

moves) at 1807.64 sustain above the same likely to trade

with positive bias. After seven week’s prices have managed

to sustain above 13, 22 EMA (daily) suggesting market may

bounce back (In uptrend) after correction. On daily charts,

RSI (14) have ascended from 0.25 to 0.51 implying prices

have potential to move northwards. Overall above analysis

implies that market is expected to trade sideways to higher

for the week

Recommendation: Zinc- 3month Forward-LME - Buy in

the range 1822-1818 targeting 1950 then 2064 with stop

loss at 1746

LME LEAD

Lead -3month Forward-LME: Lead prices traded higher

for first half of the week and witnessed sideways

movement for second half by posting gain of 4.01 %. Last

week, market made a high 1850 and closed at 1815. As per

Fibonacci, principles market is witnessing support at

23.6% retracement (2400-1533 moves) at 1738 sustain

above the same likely to trade sideways to higher. After

seven week’s prices have managed to sustain above 13, 22

EMA (daily) suggesting market may bounce back (In

uptrend) after correction. Last five trading session market

is witnessing movement in the range 1850-1760 level

break on either side will create fresh momentum. Overall

above analysis implies that market is expected to trade

sideways to higher

Recommendation- Sideways

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TECHNICAL PREFACE

LME 3-Forward S $6436 R $ 7214

MCX- June S 295 R 330

LME 3-Forward S $17905 R $20580

6

MCX- June S 852 R 951

LME 3-Forward S $1902 R $2085

MCX- June S 89 R 96

ALUMINIUM

NICKEL COPPER

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INVENTORY UPDATE

The reporting period, for a day’s stock movement in and out of LME registered warehouses is from 16.30 of the previous day until

16.30 on the day to which the stock report refers. The stock report is then released for the market everyday at 9.00 of the following

day. In India, we get the report at 14:30 IST. Cancelled tonnage represents tonnage waiting for the owner’s instructions to the

warehouse company for removal from the warehouse, or possibly re-issue of warrants. These warrants are no longer freely

available for trading. Cancelled warrants ratio represents the percentage of cancelled tonnage from the total closing stock,

suggesting the amount of inventory actually marked for delivery on daily basis.

6000

6200

6400

6600

6800

7000

7200

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05

0.055

0.06

0.065

0.07

5/1

1

5/1

3

5/1

7

5/1

9

5/2

1

5/2

5

5/2

7

6/1

6/3

6/7

6/9

6/1

1

6/1

5

6/1

7

6/2

1

Copper Cancelled Ratio LME Copper Cash ($/MT)

18000

18500

19000

19500

20000

20500

21000

21500

22000

22500

23000

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

5/1

1

5/1

3

5/1

7

5/1

9

5/2

1

5/2

5

5/2

7

6/1

6/3

6/7

6/9

6/1

1

6/1

5

6/1

7

6/2

1

Nickel Cancelled Ratio LME Nickel Cash

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05

5/1

1

5/1

3

5/1

7

5/1

9

5/2

1

5/2

5

5/2

7

6/1

6/3

6/7

6/9

6/1

1

6/1

5

6/1

7

6/2

1

Zinc Cancelled Ratio LME Zinc Cash

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

5/1

1

5/1

3

5/1

7

5/1

9

5/2

1

5/2

5

5/2

7

6/1

6/3

6/7

6/9

6/1

1

6/1

5

6/1

7

6/2

1

Lead Cancelled Ratio LME Lead Price ($/MT)

Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change

Copper 457425 454250 -3175 -0.69%

Zinc 618025 616550 -1475 -0.24%

Aluminium 4474175 4446400 -27775 -0.62%

Lead 189800 188800 -1000 -0.53%

Nickel 129798 126312 -3486 -2.69%

LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS (In tonnes)

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BASIS CHARTS

Backwardation is a market where spot prices exceed future prices while Contango is the opposite, where future prices

exceed spot prices. We have, here, considered LME Cash prices and LME 3-month forward contract. Contango seems to be

an obvious condition in the market as future prices tend to be higher because of cost-of-carry involved. The scale is:

$/tonne.

20

23

26

29

32

35

38

41

12

/14

/…

12

/24

/…

1/3

/10

1/1

3/1

0

1/2

3/1

0

2/2

/10

2/1

2/1

0

2/2

2/1

0

3/4

/10

3/1

4/1

0

3/2

4/1

0

4/3

/10

4/1

3/1

0

4/2

3/1

0

5/3

/10

5/1

3/1

0

5/2

3/1

0

6/2

/10

6/1

2/1

0

6/2

2/1

0

Aluminium

Backwardation

Conta

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2/

22

/1

0

3/

1/

10

3/

8/

10

3/

15

/1

0

3/

22

/1

0

3/

29

/1

0

4/

5/

10

4/

12

/1

0

4/

19

/1

0

4/

26

/1

0

5/

3/

10

5/

10

/1

0

5/

17

/1

0

5/

24

/1

0

5/

31

/1

0

6/

7/

10

6/

14

/1

0

6/

21

/1

0

Backwardation

ContangoCopper

10

15

20

25

30

35

2/2

2/1

0

3/1

/10

3/8

/10

3/1

5/1

0

3/2

2/1

0

3/2

9/1

0

4/5

/10

4/1

2/1

0

4/1

9/1

0

4/2

6/1

0

5/3

/10

5/1

0/1

0

5/1

7/1

0

5/2

4/1

0

5/3

1/1

0

6/7

/10

6/1

4/1

0

6/2

1/1

0

Backwardation

Contango

Lead

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2/

22

/1

0

3/

1/

10

3/

8/

10

3/

15

/1

0

3/

22

/1

0

3/

29

/1

0

4/

5/

10

4/

12

/1

0

4/

19

/1

0

4/

26

/1

0

5/

3/

10

5/

10

/1

0

5/

17

/1

0

5/

24

/1

0

5/

31

/1

0

6/

7/

10

6/

14

/1

0

6/

21

/1

0

Backwardation

Contango

Nickel

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2/

22

/…

3/

1/

10

3/

8/

10

3/

15

/…

3/

22

/…

3/

29

/…

4/

5/

10

4/

12

/…

4/

19

/…

4/

26

/…

5/

3/

10

5/

10

/…

5/

17

/…

5/

24

/…

5/

31

/…

6/

7/

10

6/

14

/…

6/

21

/…

Backwardation

ContangoZinc

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COMEX MARKET PERFORMANCE

Commodity Previous Week This Week Change % Change

Copper 288.4 309.55 21.15 7.33%

PRICES (USD/LB)

Commodity Previous week This week Change % ChangeCopper 101925 101925 0 0.00%

WAREHOUSE STOCKS (In tonnes)

Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Report- Copper

Non-Commercial 6/15/2010 6/22/2010 Change % Change

Long 33306 33374 68 0.20%

Short 31870 31901 31 0.10%

Spreading 20044 21760 1716 8.56%

Commercial

Long 72502 71285 -1217 -1.68%

Short 71463 70137 -1326 -1.86%

Total

Long 125852 126419 567 0.45%

Short 123377 123798 421 0.34%

CFTC Report - Copper (In contracts)

SHANGHAI MARKET PERFORMANCE

Commodity Previous Week This Week Change % ChangeCopper 51700 56210 4510 8.72%

Zinc 14050 17995 3945 28.08%Aluminum 14350 16515 2165 15.09%

PRICES (CNY/MT)

Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change

Copper 135944 123939 -12005 -8.83%

Zinc 267740 264843 -2897 -1.08%

Aluminium 498008 496853 -1155 -0.23%

WAREHOUSE STOCKS (In tonnes)

According to the US CFTC data, the market’s movement

was higher last week, as the prices recovered after a spate

of long fall. Last week investors entered the markets to take

advantage of price recovery and thus went for bargain

buying at low levels. The overall spread in non-commercial

sector rose to 8.56% to 21,760 positions from the prior

20,044. However, in the commercial sector, long positions

fell by 1.68% while short positions by 1.86%. Among the

total group, the long positions rose modest by 0.45% while

the short positions rose by 0.34%. The market is expecting

high volatility as the change in long and short is almost

equated. This suggests that investors try to buy and hold for

very short duration owing to high volatility in the market.

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CALENDAR SPREAD

Calendar Spreads is the difference between the two futures contracts, far-month-contract and near-month-contract. For

Copper, we have considered June ‘10 and August ‘10 at MCX while for other 4 metals, June‘10 and July‘10 contracts at MCX have

been taken into account for calculating calendar spreads.

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Aluminium Spread

Contango

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5Copper Spread

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8Nickel Spread

Contango

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4Lead Spread

Contango

Backwardation

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4Zinc Spread Contango

Backwardation

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STEEL

Commodity Contracts Open High Low Close

Close

% Change Volume

Volume %

Change

Open

Interest

Open Interest %

Change

July 23400 24260 23310 23910 2.40% 99210 -12.72% 68150 -10.88%

August 23770 24670 23770 24390 2.69% 24140 157.36% 12530 62.31%

September 24440 25050 24100 24750 2.48% 3200 900.00% 1100 155.81%

Steel NCDEX

(Rs/tonnes)

The active steel July futures contract wade range bound for the week, while rallied on the last day due to some delay in

monsoon expected. Prices gained 2.40% to settle at Rs.23,910/tonnes. Overall industry & its participants are moving towards

consolidation

Excess supply of material or early rolling back decision for production cuts made during 2009 can be the main reason for the

present steel scenario across the world

There are huge imports of HR coils that have happened from china into India till recently which could put further pressure on

the primary steelmakers to reduce prices or increase rebates in the next month i.e. July 2010

With Steel prices dropping in, mismatch between production capacity & demand shows utmost requirement for production

cuts across the nation among all the steel makers

Week ahead we expect Steel Long NCDEX prices to move in range of Rs. 23,200- 24,400/tonnes

23000

23500

24000

24500

25000

25500

26000

26500

27000

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000450005000055000600006500070000750008000085000

Open Interest Volume Closing Price

400

420

440

460

480

500

520

540

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500 Open Interest Volumes Closing Prices

NCDEX- Steel Long PVO chart LME- 3-month Forwards Steel Billets

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900 Steel Spread

Contango

100

200

300

400

500

600

700 Steel Spread

Contango

NCDEX Steel (August- July Calendar Spread) NCDEX Steel (September- August Calendar Spread)

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DATA RELEASES SCHEDULED FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

Date Time Region Event Period Survey Prior

06/28/2010 18:00 US Personal Income MAY 0.50% 0.40%

06/28/2010 18:00 US Personal Spending MAY 0.10% 0.00%

06/28/2010 GE Consumer Price Index (MoM) JUN P 0.10% 0.10%

06/29/2010 14:30 EC Euro-Zone Indust. Confidence JUN -6 -6

06/29/2010 14:30 EC Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence JUN F -17 -17

06/29/2010 14:30 EC Euro-Zone Economic Confidence JUN 98.1 98.4

06/29/2010 14:30 EC Euro-zone Services Confidence JUN 3 3

06/29/2010 19:30 US Consumer Confidence JUN 62.5 63.3

06/30/2010 02:30 US ABC Consumer Confidence 27-Jun - - -43

06/30/2010 13:25 GE Unemployment Change (000's) JUN -23K -45K

06/30/2010 13:25 GE Unemployment Rate (s.a) JUN 7.70% 7.70%

06/30/2010 14:30 EC Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) JUN 1.50% 1.60%

06/30/2010 17:45 US ADP Employment Change JUN 60K 55K

06/30/2010 19:15 US Chicago Purchasing Manager JUN 59 59.7

07/01/2010 06:30 CH PMI Manufacturing JUN 53.2 53.9

07/01/2010 08:00 CH HSBC Manufacturing PMI JUN - - 52.7

07/01/2010 11:30 GE Retail Sales (MoM) MAY 0.40% 1.00%

07/01/2010 13:25 GE PMI Manufacturing JUN F 58.1 58.1

07/01/2010 13:30 EC PMI Manufacturing JUN F 55.6 55.6

07/01/2010 18:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 26-Jun 460K 457K

07/01/2010 18:00 US Continuing Claims 19-Jun 4570K 4548K

07/01/2010 19:30 US ISM Manufacturing JUN 59 59.7

07/01/2010 19:30 US ISM Prices Paid JUN 72 77.5

07/01/2010 19:30 US Construction Spending MoM MAY -0.60% 2.70%

07/01/2010 19:30 US Pending Home Sales MoM MAY -15.20% 6.00%

07/02/2010 02:30 US Domestic Vehicle Sales JUN 8.84M 9.14M

07/02/2010 02:30 US Total Vehicle Sales JUN 11.40M 11.64M

07/02/2010 14:30 EC Euro-Zone PPI (MoM) MAY 0.30% 0.90%

07/02/2010 14:30 EC Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate MAY 10.10% 10.10%

07/02/2010 18:00 US Change in Private Payrolls JUN 113K 41K

07/02/2010 18:00 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls JUN -110K 431K

07/02/2010 18:00 US Unemployment Rate JUN 9.80% 9.70%

07/02/2010 18:00 US Change in Manufact. Payrolls JUN 20K 29K

07/02/2010 19:30 US Factory Orders MAY -0.50% 1.20%

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Disclaimer

The report contains the opinions of the author, which are not to be construed as investment advice. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy

and its affiliates cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the

opinions expressed above. The above mentioned opinions are based on the information which is believed to be accurate and no assurance can be given

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By:

Vinita Goyal Fundamental Analyst vinita.goyal@karvy.com

Afraz Khan Technical Analyst afraz.khan@karvy.com