28 August 2006 28 August 2006 1 Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board O F F...

28 August 200628 August 2006 WWW.NESDB.GO.TH Page 1

Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board

O F F I C E O F T H E P R I M E M I N I S T E R

NATIONAL POLICIESNATIONAL POLICIES

THE WORLD BANK

Future Energy Scenarios Toward Sustainable Energy Policies and Practice in Thailand

On Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency with International Experiences

Deputy Secretary GeneralMr. Arkhom Termpittayapaisith


1. Thailand Energy Problems

2. Energy Self-Sufficiency?

3. 10th National Plan

4. National Energy Development Plan

1. Thailand Energy Problems

2. Energy Self-Sufficiency?

3. 10th National Plan

4. National Energy Development Plan


O F F I C E O F T H E P R I M E M I N I S T E R Table of ContentTable of Content



O F F I C E O F T H E P R I M E M I N I S T E R Thailand Energy Problems

I Oil Price Movement

II Trade balance & Current Account

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

010203040506070

Quantity Price

III Price VS Quantity

July= 70.21

July= 69.16

July= 85.50

152535455565758595

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

OMANDubai

Singapore 95 Singapore HSD

$/bbl

July = 86.29

Source : Ministry of Energy

-300,000-200,000-100,000

-

100,000200,000300,000

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

Imports (c.i.f.)Current account balanceTrade balanceImport Crude Oil

2000 200664,702 43,760

36,428 64,847

571,687 1,229,719

50,494 202,907

(RHS)

(LHS)

More than 80% of Thailand’s energy consumption depends on huge oil import bills. Hence, the

continuous oil price hike and volatility inevitably leads to

national account imbalances.

More than 80% of Thailand’s energy consumption depends on huge oil import bills. Hence, the

continuous oil price hike and volatility inevitably leads to

national account imbalances.




-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

-4.00

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

Energy Consumption

GDP Growth

Energy Elasticity

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Year

BTU/ 2000 US dollar GDP

United States

Korea, South

Malaysia

Singapore

Thailand

Japan

Thailand vs International Energy Intensity

Thailand Energy Elasticity

Agriculture 6%

Residential &Commercia( 20%l)

Manufacturing(35%)

Transportation

(38%)

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000ktoeEnergy Consumption by Sector

%2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Ave. 5

ysr

1. GDP Growth Rate 2.1

5.4

6.7

6.2

4.5

4.98

2. Energy Consumption Growth

4.9

7.3

5.8

9.6

2.5

6.02

3. Energy Elasticity 2.3

1.4

0.9

1.6

0.6

1.36

1

2

3

Thailand Energy Problems



O F F I C E O F T H E P R I M E M I N I S T E R Transportation Mode

Transportation ModeLogistic

Structure 46’

Pak Bara Seaport

Phuket

Suwannabhum AirportLam

Chabung Seaport

Donmuang

Chiangmai

Source: Study from NESDB and Thamasart University

Transport38%

Manufacturing 35%

Residential & Commercial 20%

Agriculture 6%

Energy Consumption Structure

Road 70.4%

Rail 0.7%

Inland waterway 4.1%

Air: 20.7%

Road: 88.3%

Rail: 2.8%

Costal transport 4.0%

Air: 0.2%Pipes: 2.1%

Rail: 88.3%• mining&const. materials 40%• rice, rubber, agriculture 35%

• petroleum 14%• manuf’g 12%

Rail: 88.3%• mining&const. materials 40%• rice, rubber, agriculture 35%

• petroleum 14%• manuf’g 12%

Rail: 2.8%• petroleum 36%• cement 20%• agriculture 3%• const. Materials 2%

Rail: 2.8%• petroleum 36%• cement 20%• agriculture 3%• const. Materials 2%

Inland waterway: 4.8%Costal transport: 3.7%

• const. materials 47%• rice, tapioca, sugar, agri. 35%

• petroleum 12%


• const. materials 47%• rice, tapioca, sugar, agri. 35%

• petroleum 12% Air: 0.2%• perishable products• gems & jewelry • electronic parts

Air: 0.2%• perishable products• gems & jewelry • electronic parts

Pipe: 2.1%• oil 98%• gas 2%

Pipe: 2.1%• oil 98%• gas 2%

Transportation Sector consume 38% of total energy consumption. Transportation on road consume 70% of all transport consumption.





To become more Self-Sufficient, either reduce consumption or increase domestic production.

However, the consumption behavior will determine what type of fuel is needed to be produce.

To become more Self-Sufficient, either reduce consumption or increase domestic production.

However, the consumption behavior will determine what type of fuel is needed to be produce.

Self-Sufficiency for Sustainable

Development


DevelopmentHow much Energy Self-Sufficiency does Thailand

have?

How much Energy Self-Sufficiency does Thailand

have?




10th National Plan by NESDB10th National

Plan by NESDB




Low Quality

Education Low Quality labour

Insu

fficient in

R&

D

Investm

ent

Slow Technology Development

Lo

w Q

ual

ity

for

Raw

-

mat

eria

l, m

ach

iner

y an

d

equ

ipm

ent

(Low margin/return)

Low

Bas

ic

infr

astr

uctu

re a

nd

Logi

stic

dev

elop

men

t

Enabling factors:MACROECONOMICMANAGEMENT

No

im

mu

nit

y/

Hig

h v

ola

tili

ty

Fin

anci

al

Sys

tem

La

ck o

f S

avin

g

Lack of regulation on

industrial product’s

quality control

LowValue Creation

High Import

Contents & Sheer

size of export to GDP

High Energy Intensity& Low Efficiency& Unsustainable

structure

Macroeconomic Analysis




Philosophy of “Sufficiency Economy” from His Majesty the King

Framework for 10th Plan

Middle PathMiddle Path

Sufficient(Enough)

Reasonable Self-Immunity

“Sufficiency Economy is a philosophy that stresses appropriate conduct and way of life

while incorporating moderation, due consideration in all modes of conduct,and the

need for sufficient protection from internal and external shocks.”


Development


Development


• Having moral and

knowledge, self-

immunity, discipline

and responsibility

• Maintaining Thai

culture and local

wisdom

• Having moral and

knowledge, self-

immunity, discipline

and responsibility

• Maintaining Thai

culture and local

wisdom

• Having stability

with happiness

under diversification

of culture and

resources

• Having growth with

stabilization

• Being self-reliant /

competitive

• Equal distribution

• Transparent / fair

• Collaboration from

all sectors

• Culture and

democracy

Visions of Nation‘s Development

Thai PeopleThai People CommunityInstitutes

CommunityInstitutes

EconomicSystem

EconomicSystem

AdministrativeSystem

AdministrativeSystem

The philosophy of Sufficiency Economy

Green and Happiness Society


New Issues …..

Technology

Social

Environment

Consumer Trend

Economic Integration

Knowledge Based EconomyKnowledge Based Economy

Aging Society, (Savings and Productivity)

Aging Society, (Savings and Productivity)

Energy Security and EfficiencyEnergy Security and Efficiency

Opportunities from Global Consumer Trends

Opportunities from Global Consumer Trends

Unbalanced growth

Social risks

Naturalresources constraints

More quantitythan quality capitals

Past developmentPast development 5 Major Changes5 Major Changes Asia CenturyAsia Century



O F F I C E O F T H E P R I M E M I N I S T E R Energy Development

Plan

Energy Development

Plan

Guiding Principles for National Energy

Policy

Guiding Principles for National Energy

Policy




Three main goals to be achieved by:1. Reducing energy import2. Leveling down the energy production cost (public energy expenditure)3. Minimizing all pollution created by all economic sectors

Three main goals to be achieved by:1. Reducing energy import2. Leveling down the energy production cost (public energy expenditure)3. Minimizing all pollution created by all economic sectorsTargeting by the end of 10th National plan:- To increase consumption level of new alternative source of energy to 8%- To increase energy security of the nation for the next 50 years- To increase efficiency in energy consumption of all economic sectors- To reduce the energy elasticity from 1.4:1.0- To reduce the energy intensity in transport sector

Targeting by the end of 10th National plan:- To increase consumption level of new alternative source of energy to 8%- To increase energy security of the nation for the next 50 years- To increase efficiency in energy consumption of all economic sectors- To reduce the energy elasticity from 1.4:1.0- To reduce the energy intensity in transport sector

Energy Development

Plan

Energy Development

Plan




1. Short-term management in transportation sector; for example, rail for merchandise transportation in the Eastern-seaboard area.

2. New investment; long-term management in modal shift. To illustrate, a redesign of rail system and mass transit. This includes consideration and serious study about DC, ICD, and CY.

3. New sources of energy supply from both local and international to strengthen energy security. • Thailand is negotiated a long-term contract

for natural gas supply from neighboring countries.

• Thailand will purchase additional some thousand Megawatts of electricity from neighboring countries.

1. Short-term management in transportation sector; for example, rail for merchandise transportation in the Eastern-seaboard area.

2. New investment; long-term management in modal shift. To illustrate, a redesign of rail system and mass transit. This includes consideration and serious study about DC, ICD, and CY.

3. New sources of energy supply from both local and international to strengthen energy security. • Thailand is negotiated a long-term contract

for natural gas supply from neighboring countries.

• Thailand will purchase additional some thousand Megawatts of electricity from neighboring countries.

Main action plans:Main action plans:Energy

Development Plan

Energy Development

Plan




4. Usage of alternative energy in order to increase knowledge and participation. This is to produce and to implement alternative sources of energy by both general public and private.

5. Demand management like energy saving and electrical appliances.

6. Research and development on alternative sources of energy and renewable sources of energy. This also includes improving technology on energy saving.

4. Usage of alternative energy in order to increase knowledge and participation. This is to produce and to implement alternative sources of energy by both general public and private.

5. Demand management like energy saving and electrical appliances.

6. Research and development on alternative sources of energy and renewable sources of energy. This also includes improving technology on energy saving.

Main action plans (cont.):


Energy Development

Plan

Energy Development

Plan




7. Seriously planning for domestic production of bio-diesel from palm oil. As well, contract farming in neighboring countries.

8. Private participation in financing projects.

9. Value creation in Petrochemical industries.

7. Seriously planning for domestic production of bio-diesel from palm oil. As well, contract farming in neighboring countries.

8. Private participation in financing projects.

9. Value creation in Petrochemical industries.



Energy Development

Plan

Energy Development

Plan




Thank you

THE WORLD BANK

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