2C1Forest and Science-basedConservation: Overview of Phase 1

Accomplishments

Justina C. Ray, WCS Canada

2C1Forest reinventing conservation for 21st Century

Science-based, transboundary, landscape-scale conservation

A 2C1Forest Collaborative Project

Mark AndersonScience Team, TNC lead

Rob Baldwin2C1Forest Scientist, Future Trends/Maine lead

Karen BeazleyScience Team, Dalhousie/NS lead

Graham ForbesScience Team, UNB/NB lead

Louise GrattonScience Team, NCC/Que. lead

Justina RayScience Team, WCS lead

Conrad ReiningScience Team, Wildlands lead

Steve TrombulakScience Director, 2C1Forest/VT,NH,NY lead

Gillian WoolmerHF 2000 lead, lead GIS analyst

Phase 1: Laying foundation for landscape-scale conservation strategy: priority locationsPhase 2: Planning for connectivity and climate change in focal linkage areas

Regional Initiatives

1. Ecoregional Assessment The Nature Conservancy &

Nature Conservancy Canada

2. Wildlands Network Wildlands Project

3. Human Footprint WCS Canada

4. Future Human Footprint 2040 2C1Forest

Conservation Planning Components

Importance: the extent to which locations on the landscape are replaceable with respect to achieving the conservation goals we have specified.

Vulnerabilility: extent and threat of conversion/transformation both now and in the future.

Measuring ImportanceSpecial ecosystemsRepresentative land unitsFocal speciesRare species

Ecoregional PlanningSelect

Conservation Targets

Fine Filter:Species

Coarse Filter: Ecological Communities, Systems, and Physical Diversity

Assess Viability of

Target Occurrenc

esSize

Condition

Landscape Context

Set Representati

on and Redundancy

Goals

Number and

Distribution

GeologyLandformsClimateElevationLandcover

(ELU’s)

Irreplaceability MARXAN site selection tool 1000 ha planning units Protected Areas locked-in, Urban areas

locked-out Preference for public lands (incld. crown

lands) Conservation elements

• Focal species – lynx, marten and Wolf (Carroll, 2003 & 2005)

• Ecological variation (TNC/NCC))• Rare element occurrences (TNC/NCC)

10-km2 hexagons

Sanderson et al. 2002. Bioscience.

www.wcs.org/humanfootprint

THREAT/VULNERABILITY

Human Influence Layers

Human Settlement Roads Rail

Landcover Mines Dams

Major Utility Corridors

Human Influence Index (HII)

Normalize by Ecological-Subregions

Physical habitat degradation: two processes

Human Footprint 2000

1) Incremental expansion in settled landscapes (Modeled in Future Human Footprint with residential roads and population density)

2) Large-scale conversion of “wild” and unsettled landscapes

Modeled in FHF with LakeshoreDevelopment Zones

Lily BayAfter proposed resortdevelopment (photo simulation)

Lily BayBefore proposed resortdevelopment

Simulation obtained fromNatural Resources Council of Mainehttp://www.nrcm.org/plumcreek_impacts.asp

Land Use Change Process 2:Moosehead Lakeproposed developmenton private forestland

Future Human Footprint (2040)North Central Lakes scenario (rapid growth)

Change (2000-2040)

Conservation Prioritization

• IRREPLACEABILITY TNC: Ecoregional Assessment Wildlands Project: Network Design

• THREAT (Vulnerability) Human Footprint Future Human Footprint

Noss et al. 2002 . A Multicriteria Assessment of Irreplaceability and Vulnerability of Sites in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem. Conservation Biology

CONSERVATION PLANNING: SPATIAL PRIORITIZATION

3 Units of Analysis

Irreplaceability vs. Threat

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80 100

Current Threat

Irre

pla

ceab

ility

HF = 21

I = 61

Each planning unit has:1 score for importance4 scores for HF scenariosHigh

Importance, Low Threat High

Importance, High Threat

Low importance, High Threat

Low importance, Low Threat

CUT-OFF Hi/Lo:MEDIAN SCORES

URGENCY & OPPORTUNITY

Importance vs. Threat (current) at 10 km2 scale

Importance vs. Threat (current) at Watershed scale

Importance vs. Threat (current) at Ecological Unit scale

Importance vs. Threat (Current HF) at 10 km2

scaleImportance vs. Threat (transition) at 10 km2 scale

KEY PATTERNS large areas that still retain characteristics

of “wild” landscapes and that have not yet experienced permanent transformation to settlement,

large areas of permanent transformation that threaten and increasingly fragment the “wild” landscapes,

an increase in transformation in most locations under most future scenarios, and

areas of high irreplaceability and vulnerability across the region that are not currently protected or targeted for protection.

TAKE-HOME MESSAGES Identifies the most urgent priorities in the form

of conservation triage. Identifies sites that are most likely to increase

in vulnerability status, many of which lie within zones of connectivity between important relatively intact areas.

The selection of the planning unit has great bearing on the ultimate results in priority ranking, and must therefore be chosen carefully.

Individual layers that collectively contribute to assessments of irreplaceability and vulnerability should not disappear from view, and will be equally valuable to planners characterizing the landscape in question.

PRIORITY LINKAGES