@TexasDemography

Water.. The Highway to Texas’ Future

3rd Annual Texas Water Roundtable

Austin, Texas

February 2, 2017

Growing States, 2000-2016

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2000

Population

(millions)

2010

Population

(millions)

2016

Population

(millions)

Numeric

Change

2010-2016

(millions)

Percent

Change

2010-2016

United States 281.4 308.7 323.1 14.3 4.7%

Texas 20.8 25.1 27.8 2.7 10.8%

California 33.8 37.2 39.2 1.9 5.4%

Florida 15.9 18.8 20.6 1.8 9.6%

Georgia 8.2 9.7 10.3 .6 6.4%

North Carolina 8.0 9.5 10.1 .6 6.4%

Washington 5.8 6.7 7.3 .6 8.4%

Arizona 5.1 6.4 6.9 .5 8.4%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2016 Population Estimates.

1.9 1.6

3.0 2.83.9 4.3

0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012-2016 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census

Bureau.

Total Population in Texas, 1950-2016 (millions)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates

3

89.5% 86.7%

41.5%

65.9%

49.7% 53.7%

10.5% 13.3%

58.5%

34.1%

50.3% 46.3%

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Migration

Natural Increase

Components of Population Change by Percent

in Texas, 1950-2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

Tom

Green

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf

Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val

Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

Red

River

Karnes

Palo

Pinto

Glasscock

Shelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San

Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

Freestone

Winkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

Van

Zandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

San

Patricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

Hemphill

Hartley

Young

Burleson

Hardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

ComancheMitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff

Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

Jim

Wells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort

Bend

Bosque

Hockley

San

Saba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

Jim

Hogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San

Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

Live

Oak

Motley

Sherman

Ochiltree

Comal

Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2015

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates

tl_2010_48_county10

POPESTIMATE2015

112 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 500,000

500,001 - 4,538,028

5

Major Texas Aquifers

Drought Conditions in Texas

November 1, 2016

https://waterdatafortexas.org/drought/drought-monitor

Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2015

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2015 Vintage.

99 counties lost

population over the

five year period.

tl_2010_48_county10

NPOPCH1015

-1,913 - 0

1 - 1,000

1,001 - 20,000

20,001 - 80,000

80,001 - 444,952

8

Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2015

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2015 Vintage.

tl_2010_48_county10

PctPOPCH1015

-14.9% - 0%

0.1% - 2.5%

2.6% - 5%

5.1% - 10%

10.1% - 36.6%

9

Estimated Net-Migrants by County, Texas, 2014-2015

10Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2015 Vintage.

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

Franklin

Hunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

Tom

Green

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

Red

River

Karnes

Palo

Pinto

GlasscockShelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

FreestoneWinkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

Van

Zandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

Trinity

Reeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La

Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

San

Patricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

Hemphill

Hartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

Madison

McCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

Mitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

Jim

Wells

Delta

Stonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort Bend

Bosque

Hockley

San

Saba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

Jim

Hogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

Live

Oak

Motley

Sherman Ochiltree

Comal

tl_2010_48_county10

NETMIG2015

-8,690 - -2,500

-2,499 - 0

1 - 2,500

2,501 - 15,000

15,001 - 46,293

County

U.S. Rank

Population

Change

Population

Change

Percent of

Change from

Natural

Increase

Percent

Change

from

Migration

Percent

Change from

International

Migration

Harris 1 90,451 49.3% 50.7% 32.0%

Bexar 5 37,479 41.2% 58.8% 17.0%

Tarrant 6 36,152 46.3% 53.7% 20.2%

Dallas 9 33,760 68.1% 31.9% 39.0%

Fort Bend 13 29,437 20.7% 79.3% 16.5%

Collin 14 28,075 24.8% 75.2% 15.8%

Denton 16 25,820 25.5% 74.5% 11.7%

Travis 17 25,562 42.5% 57.5% 22.9%

Williamson 27 19,086 20.9% 79.1% 6.7%

Montgomery 29 18,505 19.2% 80.8% 9.9%*Dallas had net out domestic migration over this period.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates

Top Counties for Numeric

Growth in Texas, 2014-2015

Top Counties for Percent

Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015

County U.S.

Rank

2014-2015

Percent

Population

Change

Percent

Change

from

Migration

Percent

Change from

International

Migration

Hays 1 5.2% 85.5% 1.9%Comal 2 4.5% 90.7% 2.1%

Fort Bend 4 4.3% 79.3% 16.5%Williamson 7 3.9% 79.1% 6.7%

Montgomery 10 3.6% 80.8% 9.9%Denton 12 3.4% 74.5% 11.7%

Ector 18 3.3% 63.1% 3.1%Midland 19 3.3% 66.2% 3.2%

Collin 23 3.2% 75.2% 15.8%Kaufman 25 3.1% 79.8% 3.2%

Parker 29 2.8% 89.8% 2.2%Brazos 32 2.8% 69.2% 27.4%

Guadalupe 38 2.7% 78.8% 4.6%Ellis 39 2.7% 77.2% 2.7%

*Among Counties with 10,000 or more population in 2014

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates

Top 10 Gross Migration States for Domestic Migration to Texas, 2013

13

62,386

28,906

33,321

28,457

30,672

19,139

19,451

22,049

21,129

18,924

31,499

29,051

19,988

22,259

12,719

23,141

18,428

15,504

14,803

14,715

Out-Migrants From Texas

In-Migrants to Texas

U.S. Census Bureau ACS 1-Year PUMS,2013

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Mill

ion

s

Zero Migration

0.5 of 2000-2010 Migration

2000-2010 Migration

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050

14Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections

24

25

25

26

26

27

27

28

28

Mill

ion

s

Zero Migration

0.5 of 2000-2010 Migration

2000-2010 Migration

Estimates

Projected and Estimated Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2015

15Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections and U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

Projected Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

F6

-6,200 - 0

1 - 2,000

2,001 - 10,000

10,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 1,000,000

1,000,001 -3,480,000

Projected Percent Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

F5

LT 0%

0-40%

41-100%

101-250%

251-500%

Contact

State Demographer

Office: (210) 458-6530

Email: Lloyd.Potter@utsa.edu

Internet: Demographics.Texas.gov

Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.

@TexasDemography

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