OSO SECURITIES

MEMBER OF INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

OSO Weekly 28 September – 02 Oktober 2015

JCI (168.95) (3.86%)

4,209.44

29-May-15 4,332.51 Lowest 4,209.43 Highest 4,376.08 Val IDR bn 18,312.50 Vol (bn) 24,44 Mkt Cap IDR tr 4,359.91 NetForg 1WIDRbn 2,041.60 NetForgYTDRbn (11,968.49) Year to date(%) (19.47) Month to date (%) (6.66)

Indices

Last WoW% YTD% Government Bonds Yield% WoW% YTD%

Americas

1 Year 8.11 2.18 16.76 Dow Jones United States 16,314.67 (0.43) (8.46) 2 Year 8.93 4.01 19.19 S&P 500 United States 1,931.34 (1.36) (6.20) 3 Year 9.17 4.36 21.35 Nasdaq United States 4,686.50 (2.92) (1.05) 4 Year 9.32 5.05 21.59 EIDO United States 17.32 (6.43) (36.88) 5 Year 9.40 5.49 22.04 EMEA

6 Year 9.44 3.91 21.71

Euro Stoxx Euro Area 3,113.16 (1.40) (1.06) 7 Year 9.57 4.70 22.97 FTSE 100 United Kingdom 6,109.01 0.08 (6.96) 8 Year 9.57 4.58 22.68 CAC 40 France 4,480.66 (1.22) 4.87 9 Year 9.55 5.98 22.10 DAX Germany 9,688.53 (2.30) (1.19) 10 Year 9.55 6.07 22.49 Asia Pacific

15 Year 9.74 4.50 19.42

Nikkei Japanese 17,880.51 (0.81) 2.46 20 Year 9.77 5.75 17.80 Shanghai China 3,092.35 (0.18) (4.40) 30 Year 9.92 2.10 14.90

TWSE Taiwan 8,132.35 (3.90) (12.62)

SET Thailand 1,376.83 (0.97) (8.07) Commodities Last WoW% Ytd%

KOSPI Korea 1,942.85 (2.66) 1.42 Oil (USD/bbl) 45.26 (3.04) (15.04) PCOMP Philippine 6,917.55 (2.90) (4.33) Gold (USD tr.oz) 1,146.10 1.12 (3.27) KLSE Malaysia 1,615.01 (3.96) (8.30) Silver (USD tr.oz) 15.05 (1.09) (3.31) ST - Times Singapore 2,832.64 (2.18) (15.82) Nickel (USD/mtrc ton) 9,950.00 2.84 (34.32) Sensex India 25,863.50 (0.39) (5.95) Tin (USD/mtrc ton) 15,100.00 (0.49) (22.16) Hangseng Hong Kong 21,186.32 (3.35) (10.25) Copper (USD/mtrc ton) 5,023.00 (4.40) (20.27)

CPO (MYR/ton) 2,259.00 9.98 (1.40)

Sektoral

Last WoW% YTD% Coal (USD/ton) * 61.80 (0.96) (1.98)

AGRICULTURE

1,638.21 (0.68) (30.32) Natural Gas 2.61 1.24 (9.83) MINING

919.56 2.12 (32.83) Corn 388.25 0.98 (2.20)

MISC INDUSTRY

990.40 (4.68) (24.23) Soybean 308.70 (0.29) (15.33) BASIC INDUSTRY

346.02 (4.21) (36.35) Coffe 122.70 8.25 (26.35)

CONSUMER GOODS

1,951.51 (6.12) (10.40) Cotton 60.31 0.94 0.07 PROPERTY

436.55 (2.34) (16.83) Sugar 11.74 7.12 (19.15)

INFRASTRUKTUR

863.20 (0.78) (25.60) Wheat 511.00 2.87 (13.35) FINANCE

598.24 (6.79) (18.23) Cocoa 3,276.00 (1.06) 12.58

MANUFAKTURE

1,059.31 (5.38) (20.66)

TRADE

830.91 (1.35) (5.43) Top Gainer Last WoW% Ytd%

LQ 45

699.37 (5.61) (22.17) INCO IJ Equity 2,080 27.61 (42.62) SRI-KEHATI

237.67 (6.10) (20.66) LSIP IJ Equity 1,400 13.82 (25.93)

ADHI IJ Equity 2,210 8.87 (36.49)

Currency

Last WoW% YTD% ANTM IJ Equity 510 5.59 (52.11)

IDR / USD

14,693 (2.17) (15.69) AKRA IJ Equity 6,000 3.90 45.63

IDR / AUD

10,313 1.13 (1.58)

IDR / EUR

16,359 0.64 (7.92) Top Loser Last WoW% Ytd%

IDR / SGD

10,318 0.18 (9.13) ASII IJ Equity 1,635 (1.21) (1.80) IDR / JPY

121 (0.60) (14.59) UNTR IJ Equity 1,150 (8.00) (24.34)

IDR / GBP

22,374 0.46 (13.80) BBNI IJ Equity 13,100 (4.73) (4.38)

BSDE IJ Equity 1,370 (13.02) (25.14)

Global Macro Eco

CB Rate (%) CPI YoY (%) GDP YoY (%) LPPF IJ Equity 510 5.59 (52.11)

United States

0.25 0.20 2.70

Euro Area

0.05 0.10 1.50 Top Volume Last Volume(Mn) YTD%

United Kingdom

0.50 - 2.60 LPKR IJ Equity 1,100 125.51 7.84 Japan

0.10 0.20 0.80 ASRI IJ Equity 330 83.81 (41.07)

China

4.60 2.00 7.00 BBRI IJ Equity 8,550 83.09 (26.61) Singapore

0.08 (0.80) 1.80 PWON IJ Equity 345 70.98 (33.01)

TLKM IJ Equity 2,655 63.64 (6.84)

Domestic Macro Eco

Last WoW% YTD%

Jibor

5.75 0.08 (2.67) Top Value Last Value(Bn) YTD%

InflasiYoY

7.18

BBNI IJ Equity 4,110 202.85 (32.62) InflasiMoM

0.39

TLKM IJ Equity 2,655 168.96 (6.84)

BI Rate

7.50

PGAS IJ Equity 2,735 65.26 (54.42) GDP Growth YoY

4.67

BBCA IJ Equity 11,800 168.14 (10.10)

Foreign Reserve (Bn)

105.35

BBRI IJ Equity 8,550 710.38 (26.61)

Sources : Bloomberg

OSO SECURITIES

MEMBER OF INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

OSO Weekly 28 September – 02 Oktober 2015

Indonesia Market Review Selama sepekan kemarin IHSG terkoreksi sebesar 3.86% ke level 4,209.44. Mayoritas semua sektor bergerak melemah, dipimpin oleh sektor finance dan Consumer Goods yang masing-masig turun sebesar 6.79% dan 6.12%. Tergerusnya rupiah sepekan kemarin yang sudah mencapai level 14,693 di akhir pekan atau sudah terdepresiasi sebesar 2.17% menjadi faktor utama yang membuat kekhawatiran pelaku pasar semakin besar, sehingga transaksi perdagangan saham relatif sepi ditengah aksi pelaku pasar yang masih wait and see. Selain itu serapan APBN yang masih rendah, yaitu baru 55% pada bulan September ini ikut menjadi katalis negatif pergerakan IHSG. Hal yang sama juga terjadi pada bursa Asia, dimana semua indeks bursa Asia selama sepekan kemarin ditutup terkoreksi dengan koreksi tertinggi terjadi pada indeks KLSE dan indek TWSE, yang masing-masing turun sebesar 3.96% dan 3.90%.

Global Market Review Mayoritas indeks utama AS terkoreksi selama sepekan terakhir. Indeks Dow Jones melemah sebesar 0.43% ke level 16,314.67, indeks S&P 500 melemah 1.36% ke level 1,931.34 dan indeks Nasdaq terkoreksi sebesar 2.92% ke level 4,686.50. Pelemahan yang terjadi di bursa AS seiring dengan rilisnya data penjualan rumah AS bulan Agustus yang hanya 5.31M atau turun dari periode sebelumnya 5.58M. Selain itu data Durable goods AS bulan Agustus yang masih rendah yaitu turun menjadi -2.00% dari sebelumnya 2.2% ikut menjadi katalis negatif pada perdagangan sepekan kemarin. Pernyataan dari Fed Lockhart dan Janet Yallen yang berencana akan menaikkan suku bunga AS pada akhir tahun ini juga memicu respon dari pelaku pasar yang menjadi penggerak pasar saham AS selama sepekan kemarin. Sementara itu, mayoritas indeks utama Eropa bergerak negatif seiring dengan turunya data manufacturing kawasan zona eropa bulan September dari sebelumnya 52.3 menjadi 52. Selain itu, rilisnya data perekonomian China yang negatif seperti perlambatan manufacturing China bulan September membuat kekhawatiran pelaku pasar terhadap perlambatan pertumbuhan perekonomian China semakin besar. Indeks Euro Stoxx turun sebesar 1.40% ke level 3,113.16, indeks CAC 40 melemah sebesar 1.22% ke level 4,480.66, sedangkan indeks FTSE 100 berhasil menguat tipis sebesar 0.08% ke level 6,109.01.

Commodity Market Selama sepekan kemarin mayoritas komoditas bergerak menguat. Penguatan tertinggi dipimpin oleh CPO yang menguat sebesar 9.98% ke level 2,259 dan Coffee yang berhasil mencatatkan penguatan sebesar 8.25% ke level 122.70. Penguatan komoditas CPO selama sepekan kemarin dipicu oleh pelemahan ringgit Malaysia akibat pernyataan dari Gubernur The Fed Janet Yallen yang kemungkinan besar akan menaikkan suku bunga AS pada akhir tahun ini, dan Yallen menegaskan perlambatan ekonomi global tidak akan seterusnya menjadi penahan langkah The Fed untuk menaikkan suku bunga di tahun 2015. Sementara itu harga komoditas minyak kembali melemah selama sepekan kemarin sebesar 3.04% ke level 45.26, seiring dengan kelebihan pasokan minyak di pasar global.

Market Outlook Kami perkirakan IHSG akan bergerak mixed selama sepekan dengan kecenderungan menguat terbatas. Beberapa data ekonomi yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini akan menjadi penggerak market, seperti : Pending Home Sales AS bulan Agustus, Inflation Rate Jerman bulan September, Industrial Production Jepang bulan Agustus, Manufacturing China bulan September, Continuing Jobless Claims AS 19/Sep. Secara teknikal, indicator MACD Histogram berpotensi deadcross diikuti dengan indicator RSI dan Stochastic Oscillator yang terlihat sudah bergerak melemah. Kami perkirakan IHSG akan bergerak pada kisaran 4145-4300.

OSO SECURITIES

MEMBER OF INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

OSO Weekly 28 September – 02 Oktober 2015

Technical Analysis

Saham ini bergerak membentuk minor downtrend dimana pada pekan kemarin saham ini diwarnai oleh aksi jual para pelaku pasar. Indicator MACD Histogram dan MFI masih terlihat bergerak melemah. Namun, indicator Stochastic Oscillator berpotensi goldencross.

Recommendation : Buy On Weakness Target Price : 8980 Support : 8295 Stop loss : 8200

Saham ini bergerak pada fase sideways selama dua minggu berturut-turut dimana indicator MACD Histogram terlihat masih terus bergerak menguat sejalan dengan indicator RSI yang juga menunjukkan pergerakan naik. Recommendation : Buy Target Price : 3640 Support : 3365 Stop loss : 3330

BBRI

PTPP

OSO SECURITIES

MEMBER OF INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

OSO Weekly 28 September – 02 Oktober 2015

Dalam tiga minggu terakhir saham ini bergerak sideways setelah sebelumnya bergerak membentuk minor downtrend. Indicator MFI dan RSI terlihat sedikit mengalmai penguatan. Selain itu, indicator Stochastic Oscillator pun menunjukkan adanya potensi pembalikkan arah. Recommendation : Buy Target Price : 870 Support : 800 Stop loss : 785

Selama sepekan saham ini bergerak membentuk minor uptrend setelah sebelumnya bergerak sideways. Indicator MFI dan Momentum bergerak menguat. Namun, indicator Stochastic Oscillator justru bergerak datar. Waspadai aksi profit taking. Recommendation : Buy Target Price : 2185 Support : 2015 Stop loss : 1995

CTRA

INCO

OSO SECURITIES

MEMBER OF INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

OSO Weekly 28 September – 02 Oktober 2015

Economic Calendar

Date Agenda Country Prior Consensus

28-Sep-15 Japan BoJ Gov Kuroda Speech JPY

28-Sep-15 Italy Business Confidence SEP ITL 102.5

28-Sep-15 Italy Consumer Confidence SEP ITL 109

28-Sep-15 US Fed Dudley Speech USD

28-Sep-15 US Core PCE Price Index YoY AUG USD 1.2%

28-Sep-15 US Core PCE Price Index MoM AUG USD 0.1% 0.1%

28-Sep-15 US Personal Income MoM AUG USD 0.4% 0.4%

28-Sep-15 US Personal Spending MoM AUG USD 0.3% 0.3%

28-Sep-15 US Pending Home Sales MoM AUG USD 0.5% 0.5%

28-Sep-15 US Pending Home Sales YoY AUG USD 7.4%

29-Sep-15 US Fed Evans Speech USD

29-Sep-15 US Fed Williams Speech USD

29-Sep-15 UK Mortgage Lending AUG GBP £2.7B  £2.8B

29-Sep-15 UK Mortgage Approvals AUG GBP 68.76K 70K

29-Sep-15 Euro Area Business Confidence SEP EUR 0.21 0.2

29-Sep-15 Euro Area Economic Sentiment SEP EUR 104.2 104.1

29-Sep-15 Euro Area Industrial Sentiment SEP EUR -3.7  -3.8

29-Sep-15 Germany Inflation Rate YoY Prel SEP GBP 0.2% 0.1%

29-Sep-15 US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY JUL USD 5.0% 5.1%

29-Sep-15 US CB Consumer Confidence SEP USD 101.5 96.1

30-Sep-15 UK Gfk Consumer Confidence SEP GBP 7 6

30-Sep-15 Japan Industrial Production YoY Prel AUG JPY 0.0%

30-Sep-15 Japan Industrial Production MoM Prel AUG JPY -0.8%  1%

30-Sep-15 Japan Retail Sales YoY AUG JPY 1.6% 1.1%

30-Sep-15 Germany Retail Sales MoM AUG EUR 1.4% 0.2%

30-Sep-15 Germany Retail Sales YoY AUG EUR 3.3% 3.1%

30-Sep-15 Germany Unemployment Change SEP EUR -6K  -5K

30-Sep-15 Germany Unemployment Rate Harmonised AUG EUR 4.7%

30-Sep-15 Germany Unemployment Rate SEP EUR 6.4% 6.4%

30-Sep-15 Italy Unemployment Rate AUG ITL 12% 11.9%

30-Sep-15 UK Current Account Q2 GBP £-26.6B  £-22.6B

30-Sep-15 UK GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2 GBP 0.4% 0.7%

30-Sep-15 UK GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q2 GBP 2.9% 2.6%

30-Sep-15 Euro Area Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash SEP EUR 0.9% 0.9%

30-Sep-15 Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Flash SEP EUR 0.1% 0%

30-Sep-15 Euro Area Unemployment Rate AUG EUR 10.9% 10.9%

30-Sep-15 Italy Inflation Rate YoY Prel SEP ITL 0.2% 0.3%

30-Sep-15 US Adp Employment Change SEP USD 190k 192K

30-Sep-15 US Chicago PMI SEP USD 54.4 53

01-Okt-15 US Fed Yellen Speech USD

01-Okt-15 US Fed Brainard Speech USD

01-Okt-15 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q3 JPY 15 13

01-Okt-15 Japan Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q3 JPY 23 20

01-Okt-15 Japan Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q3 JPY 21 18

01-Okt-15 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Q3 JPY 16 10

01-Okt-15 Japan Tankan All Big Industry CAPEX Q3 JPY 9.3% 8.7%

01-Okt-15 China NBS Manufacturing PMI SEP CNY 49.7 49.6

01-Okt-15 China Non Manufacturing PMI SEP CNY 53.4

01-Okt-15 Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Final SEP JPY 51.7 50.9

01-Okt-15 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final SEP CNY 47.3 47.0

01-Okt-15 China Caixin General Services PMI SEP CNY 51.5

01-Okt-15 Indonesia Core Inflation Rate YoY SEP IDR 4.92%

01-Okt-15 Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI Final SEP EUR 53.3 52.5

01-Okt-15 Euro Area Markit Manufacturing PMI Final SEP EUR 52.3 52

01-Okt-15 UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI SEP GBP 51.5 51.3

01-Okt-15 Euro Area ECB MP Meeting Accounts EUR

01-Okt-15 US Challenger Job Cuts SEP USD 41.2

01-Okt-15 US Continuing Jobless Claims 19/SEP USD 2242K 2273K

01-Okt-15 US Initial Jobless Claims 26/SEP USD 267K 270K

01-Okt-15 Euro Area ECB President Draghi Speech EUR

01-Okt-15 US Markit Manufacturing PMI Final SEP USD 53 53

01-Okt-15 US ISM Manufacturing PMI SEP USD 51.1 50.6

01-Okt-15 US Construction Spending MoM AUG USD 0.7% 0.5%

01-Okt-15 US Fed Williams Speech USD

Sumber :Trading economic & Bloomberg

OSO SECURITIES

MEMBER OF INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

OSO Weekly 28 September – 02 Oktober 2015

DISCLAIMER

This report has been prepared by PT OSO Securities on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstance.is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of PT. OSO Securities. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of PT. OSO Securities, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action , suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither PT. OSO Securities, its affiliated companiesor their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by PT. OSO Securities or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards tothe specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice.

RESEARCH TEAM

Supriyadi (supriyadi@oso-securities.com) Head of Research +62 21 2991 5300

Rifqiyati

(rifqiyati@oso-securities.com) Research Analyst +62 21 2991 5300

RiskaAfriani

(r.afriani@oso-securities.com) Research Analyst +62 21 2991 5300

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