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4th MEETING SADMOSEVILLE, SPAIN, FEBRUARY 2008
WATER RESOURCES INDICATORS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE HYDROLOGICAL DATA EAST OF
GUADIANA RIVER AT REGIONAL SCALEHYDROLOGIC ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF RGG WATER
RESOURCES AT REGIONAL AND TEMPORAL SCALES
P. ANGELIDIS AND N. KOTSOVINOS
DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERINGDEMOCRITUS UNIVERSITY OF THRACE
67100 XANTHI, GREECE
DUTH RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
• REGIONAL STATISTICAL – HYDROLOGIC ANALYSIS OF THE PRECIPITATION DATA
• WATER RESOURCES INDICATORS AT REGIONAL SCALES AND VARIOUS TIME SCALES
• TEST FOR THE APPROPRIATE PROBABILITY DENSITY DISTRIBUTION TO DERIVE THE STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) AT REGIONAL SCALE FOR VARIOUS TIME SCALES; KOLMOGOROV-SMIRNOV GOODNESS-OF-FIT TEST
STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) FOR VARIOUS TIME SCALES AT MANY STATIONS COVERING THE REGION UNDER STUDY, USING THREE DIFFERENT PROBABILITY DENSITY DISTRIBUTIONS
TREND LINE OF SPI
REGIONAL STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE AND EVAPORATION
ADDITIONAL DROUGHT INDICATORS COMBINING HYDROLOGIC, EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND VEGETATION DATA
Meteorological stations in the area under study
(Guadiana)
-9 -8.8 -8.6 -8.4 -8.2 -8 -7.8 -7.6 -7.4 -7.2 -737
37.2
37.4
37.6
37.8
38
38.2
38.4
38.6
38.8
39
ALANDROAL
ALCARIA LONGA
ALCOUTIM
ALDEIA NOVA DE SÃO BENTO
ALGODÔR
AMARELEJA
AMIEIRA
ARRONCHES
BARRANCOS
CORUJOS
HERDADE DE VALADA
JUROM ENHA
MARTIM LONGO
M ESQUITA
MINAS DE SÃO DOMINGOS
M ONTE DA PATA ESTRELA
M ONTE DA TORRE
MOURA
M ÉRTOLA
PEDROGÃO DO ALENTEJO
PEREIRO
PORTEL
REGUENGOS
SALVADA
SANTA IRIA
SANTIAGO M AIOR
SANTO ALEIXO DA RESTAURAÇÃO
SERPA
SO BRAL DA ADIÇA
VIDIGUEIRA
VILA VERDE DE FICALHO
VILA VIÇOSA
VALE DE CAM ELOS
FIGUEIRAISFARO
BEJA
SETUBAL
EVO RA
SANTAREM
PO RTALEG RE
BEJA
EVO RASETUBAL
FARO
SPAIN
WE MADE TWO DIFFERENT STATISTICAL ANALYSIES FOR COMPUTATION OF THE STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) FOR VARIOUS TIME SCALES AT MANY STATIONS COVERING THE REGION UNDER STUDY:
The precipitation timeseries completed after correlation, but not extended. So timeseries of variant meteorologic stations have not the same time period
The precipitation timeseries completed after correlation, and extended to have all the same chronicle basis 1931 - 2007
THE RESULTS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT AS WE WILL SEE NEXT.
TESTING THREE THEORETICAL CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Theoretical distributions seems to fit better to the larger timeseries (right figure)
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITYFOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Guadiana: ALDEIA NOVA DE SΓO BENTO station: 1931 - 1973
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (mm)
CU
MU
LA
TIV
E P
RO
BA
BIL
ITY
.
DATA GAMMA LOG-NORMAL NORMAL
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITYFOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Guadiana: ALDEIA NOVA DE SΓO BENTO station: 1931 - 2007
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (mm)C
UM
UL
AT
IVE
PR
OB
AB
ILIT
Y
.
DATA GAMMA LOG-NORMAL NORMAL
TESTING THREE THEORETICAL CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Theoretical distributions seems to fit better to the larger timeseries (right figure)
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITYFOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Guadiana: ALDEIA NOVA DE SΓO BENTO station: 1931 - 1973
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (mm)
CU
MU
LA
TIV
E P
RO
BA
BIL
ITY
.
DATA GAMMA LOG-NORMAL NORMAL
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITYFOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Guadiana: ALDEIA NOVA DE SΓO BENTO station: 1931 - 2007
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (mm)C
UM
UL
AT
IVE
PR
OB
AB
ILIT
Y
.
DATA GAMMA LOG-NORMAL NORMAL
TESTING THREE THEORETICAL CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Theoretical distributions seems to fit better to the larger timeseries (right figure)
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITYFOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Guadiana: HERDADE DE VALADA station: 1968 - 2007
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (mm)
CU
MU
LA
TIV
E P
RO
BA
BIL
ITY
.
DATA GAMMA LOG-NORMAL NORMAL
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITYFOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Guadiana: HERDADE DE VALADA station: 1931 - 2007
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (mm)C
UM
UL
AT
IVE
PR
OB
AB
ILIT
Y
.
DATA GAMMA LOG-NORMAL NORMAL
TESTING THREE THEORETICAL CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Theoretical distributions seems to fit better to the larger timeseries (right figure)
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITYFOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Guadiana: MINAS DE SΓO DOMINGOS station: 1931 - 1968
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (mm)
CU
MU
LA
TIV
E P
RO
BA
BIL
ITY
.
DATA GAMMA LOG-NORMAL NORMAL
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITYFOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Guadiana: MINAS DE SΓO DOMINGOS station: 1931 - 2007
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (mm)C
UM
UL
AT
IVE
PR
OB
AB
ILIT
Y
.
DATA GAMMA LOG-NORMAL NORMAL
TESTING THREE THEORETICAL CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Theoretical distributions seems to fit better to the larger timeseries (right figure)
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITYFOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Guadiana: MOURA station: 1932 - 1941
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0 50 100 150 200
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (mm)
CU
MU
LA
TIV
E P
RO
BA
BIL
ITY
.
DATA GAMMA LOG-NORMAL NORMAL
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITYFOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Guadiana: MOURA station: 1931 - 2007
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0 50 100 150 200
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (mm)C
UM
UL
AT
IVE
PR
OB
AB
ILIT
Y
.
DATA GAMMA LOG-NORMAL NORMAL
TESTING THREE THEORETICAL CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Theoretical distributions seems to fit better to the larger timeseries (right figure), except log-normal
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITYFOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Guadiana: SANTA IRIA station: 1980 - 2007
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (mm)
CU
MU
LA
TIV
E P
RO
BA
BIL
ITY
.
DATA GAMMA LOG-NORMAL NORMAL
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITYFOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Guadiana: SANTA IRIA station: 1931 - 2007
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (mm)C
UM
UL
AT
IVE
PR
OB
AB
ILIT
Y
.
DATA GAMMA LOG-NORMAL NORMAL
TESTING THREE THEORETICAL CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Theoretical distributions seems to fit better to the larger timeseries (right figure)
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITYFOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Guadiana: SOBRAL DA ADIHA station: 1980 - 2007
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (mm)
CU
MU
LA
TIV
E P
RO
BA
BIL
ITY
.
DATA GAMMA LOG-NORMAL NORMAL
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITYFOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Guadiana: SOBRAL DA ADIΗA station: 1931 - 2007
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (mm)C
UM
UL
AT
IVE
PR
OB
AB
ILIT
Y
.
DATA GAMMA LOG-NORMAL NORMAL
TESTING THREE THEORETICAL CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Theoretical distributions seems to fit better to the larger timeseries (right figure)
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITYFOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Guadiana: VILA VERDE DE FICALHO station: 1980 - 1985
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0 50 100 150 200 250
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (mm)
CU
MU
LA
TIV
E P
RO
BA
BIL
ITY
.
DATA GAMMA LOG-NORMAL NORMAL
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITYFOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Guadiana: VILA VERDE DE FICALHO station: 1931 - 2007
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (mm)C
UM
UL
AT
IVE
PR
OB
AB
ILIT
Y
.
DATA GAMMA LOG-NORMAL NORMAL
TESTING THREE THEORETICAL CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Theoretical distributions seems to fit better to the larger timeseries (right figure)
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITYFOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATIONSALVADA station: 1957 - 2007
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (mm)
CU
MU
LA
TIV
E P
RO
BA
BIL
ITY
.
DATA GAMMA LOG-NORMAL NORMAL
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITYFOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Guadiana: SALVADA station: 1931 - 2007
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (mm)C
UM
UL
AT
IVE
PR
OB
AB
ILIT
Y
.
DATA GAMMA LOG-NORMAL NORMAL
TESTING THREE THEORETICAL CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Theoretical distributions seems to fit better to the larger timeseries (right figure)
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITYFOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Guadiana: MESQUITA station: 1980 - 2007
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (mm)
CU
MU
LA
TIV
E P
RO
BA
BIL
ITY
.
DATA GAMMA LOG-NORMAL NORMAL
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITYFOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Guadiana: MESQUITA station: 1931 - 2007
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (mm)C
UM
UL
AT
IVE
PR
OB
AB
ILIT
Y
.
DATA GAMMA LOG-NORMAL NORMAL
TESTING THREE THEORETICAL CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Theoretical distributions seems to fit better to the larger timeseries (right figure)
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITYFOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
PORTEL station: 1939 - 2007
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (mm)
CU
MU
LA
TIV
E P
RO
BA
BIL
ITY
.
DATA GAMMA LOG-NORMAL NORMAL
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITYFOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
Guadiana: PORTEL station: 1931 - 2007
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (mm)C
UM
UL
AT
IVE
PR
OB
AB
ILIT
Y
.
DATA GAMMA LOG-NORMAL NORMAL
COMPARISON OF THE STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION
INDEX SPI 12
a) Each one of the precipitation timeseries has its own chronicle basis
b) The precipitation timeseries have all the same chronicle basis 1931 - 2007
ALDEIA NOVA DE SΓO BENTO station: a) 1931–1973, b) 1931–2007
SPI 12 y = 0.001x - 0.2542
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
31
93
2
19
33
19
34
19
35
19
36
19
37
19
38
19
39
19
40
19
41
19
42
19
43
19
44
19
45
19
46
19
47
19
48
19
49
19
50
19
51
19
52
19
53
19
54
19
55
19
56
19
57
19
58
19
59
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
SPI 12 y = -0.0005x + 0.2308
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
19
32
19
33
19
34
19
35
19
36
19
37
19
38
19
39
19
40
19
41
19
42
19
43
19
44
19
45
19
46
19
47
19
48
19
49
19
50
19
51
19
52
19
53
19
54
19
55
19
56
19
57
19
58
19
59
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
HERDADE DE VALADA station: a) 1968 - 2007, b) 1931–2007
SPI 12 y = 3E-05x - 0.0059
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
31
96
9
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
SPI 12 y = -0.0005x + 0.2262
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
19
32
19
33
19
34
19
35
19
36
19
37
19
38
19
39
19
40
19
41
19
42
19
43
19
44
19
45
19
46
19
47
19
48
19
49
19
50
19
51
19
52
19
53
19
54
19
55
19
56
19
57
19
58
19
59
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
MINAS DE SΓO DOMINGOS station: a) 1931 - 1968, b) 1931–2007
SPI 12 y = 0.003x - 0.6633
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
31
93
2
19
33
19
34
19
35
19
36
19
37
19
38
19
39
19
40
19
41
19
42
19
43
19
44
19
45
19
46
19
47
19
48
19
49
19
50
19
51
19
52
19
53
19
54
19
55
19
56
19
57
19
58
19
59
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
SPI 12 y = -0.0003x + 0.1309
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
19
32
19
33
19
34
19
35
19
36
19
37
19
38
19
39
19
40
19
41
19
42
19
43
19
44
19
45
19
46
19
47
19
48
19
49
19
50
19
51
19
52
19
53
19
54
19
55
19
56
19
57
19
58
19
59
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
MONTE DA TORRE station: a) 1961 - 1971, b) 1931–2007
SPI 12 y = -0.0041x + 0.2236
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
31
96
2
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
SPI 12 y = -0.0006x + 0.2734
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
19
32
19
33
19
34
19
35
19
36
19
37
19
38
19
39
19
40
19
41
19
42
19
43
19
44
19
45
19
46
19
47
19
48
19
49
19
50
19
51
19
52
19
53
19
54
19
55
19
56
19
57
19
58
19
59
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
MOURA station: a) 1932 - 1941, b) 1931–2007
SPI 12 y = 0.0261x - 1.641
-2
-1
0
1
21
93
2
19
33
19
34
19
35
19
36
19
37
19
38
19
39
19
40
19
41
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
SPI 12 y = -0.0004x + 0.1877
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
19
32
19
33
19
34
19
35
19
36
19
37
19
38
19
39
19
40
19
41
19
42
19
43
19
44
19
45
19
46
19
47
19
48
19
49
19
50
19
51
19
52
19
53
19
54
19
55
19
56
19
57
19
58
19
59
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
SANTA IRIA station: a) 1980 - 2007, b) 1931–2007
SPI 12 y = 0.0019x - 0.2966
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
31
98
1
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
SPI 12 y = -0.0005x + 0.2219
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
19
32
19
33
19
34
19
35
19
36
19
37
19
38
19
39
19
40
19
41
19
42
19
43
19
44
19
45
19
46
19
47
19
48
19
49
19
50
19
51
19
52
19
53
19
54
19
55
19
56
19
57
19
58
19
59
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
SOBRAL DA ADIHA station: a) 1980 - 2007, b) 1931–2007
SPI 12 y = 0.0017x - 0.2687
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
31
98
1
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
SPI 12 y = -0.0005x + 0.2142
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
19
32
19
33
19
34
19
35
19
36
19
37
19
38
19
39
19
40
19
41
19
42
19
43
19
44
19
45
19
46
19
47
19
48
19
49
19
50
19
51
19
52
19
53
19
54
19
55
19
56
19
57
19
58
19
59
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
VILA VERDE DE FICALHO station: a) 1980 - 1985, b) 1931–2007
SPI 12 y = 0.0529x - 1.3748
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
SPI 12 y = -0.0005x + 0.2222
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
19
32
19
33
19
34
19
35
19
36
19
37
19
38
19
39
19
40
19
41
19
42
19
43
19
44
19
45
19
46
19
47
19
48
19
49
19
50
19
51
19
52
19
53
19
54
19
55
19
56
19
57
19
58
19
59
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
SALVADA station: a) 1957 - 2007, b) 1931–2007
SPI 12
y = -0.0005x + 0.1505
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
31
95
8
19
59
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
SPI 12 y = -0.0004x + 0.1989
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
19
32
19
33
19
34
19
35
19
36
19
37
19
38
19
39
19
40
19
41
19
42
19
43
19
44
19
45
19
46
19
47
19
48
19
49
19
50
19
51
19
52
19
53
19
54
19
55
19
56
19
57
19
58
19
59
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
MESQUITA station: a) 1980 - 2007, b) 1931–2007
SPI 12 y = -0.0003x + 0.0547
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
31
98
1
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
SPI 12 y = -0.0002x + 0.0816
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
19
32
19
33
19
34
19
35
19
36
19
37
19
38
19
39
19
40
19
41
19
42
19
43
19
44
19
45
19
46
19
47
19
48
19
49
19
50
19
51
19
52
19
53
19
54
19
55
19
56
19
57
19
58
19
59
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
COMPARISON OF THE STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION
INDEX SPI 24
a) Each one of the precipitation timeseries has its own chronicle basis
b) The precipitation timeseries have all the same chronicle basis 1931 - 2007
ALDEIA NOVA DE SΓO BENTO station: a) 1931–1973, b) 1931–2007
SPI 24 y = 0.0015x - 0.3932
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
31
93
2
19
33
19
34
19
35
19
36
19
37
19
38
19
39
19
40
19
41
19
42
19
43
19
44
19
45
19
46
19
47
19
48
19
49
19
50
19
51
19
52
19
53
19
54
19
55
19
56
19
57
19
58
19
59
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
SPI 24 y = -0.0007x + 0.3328
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
19
32
19
33
19
34
19
35
19
36
19
37
19
38
19
39
19
40
19
41
19
42
19
43
19
44
19
45
19
46
19
47
19
48
19
49
19
50
19
51
19
52
19
53
19
54
19
55
19
56
19
57
19
58
19
59
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
HERDADE DE VALADA station: a) 1968 - 2007, b) 1931–2007
SPI 24
y = 0.0005x - 0.1
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
41
97
0
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
SPI 24 y = -0.0006x + 0.3001
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
19
32
19
33
19
34
19
35
19
36
19
37
19
38
19
39
19
40
19
41
19
42
19
43
19
44
19
45
19
46
19
47
19
48
19
49
19
50
19
51
19
52
19
53
19
54
19
55
19
56
19
57
19
58
19
59
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
MINAS DE SΓO DOMINGOS station: a) 1931 - 1968, b) 1931–2007
SPI 24 y = 0.0043x - 0.9847
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
31
93
2
19
33
19
34
19
35
19
36
19
37
19
38
19
39
19
40
19
41
19
42
19
43
19
44
19
45
19
46
19
47
19
48
19
49
19
50
19
51
19
52
19
53
19
54
19
55
19
56
19
57
19
58
19
59
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
SPI 24 y = -0.0004x + 0.1652
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
19
32
19
33
19
34
19
35
19
36
19
37
19
38
19
39
19
40
19
41
19
42
19
43
19
44
19
45
19
46
19
47
19
48
19
49
19
50
19
51
19
52
19
53
19
54
19
55
19
56
19
57
19
58
19
59
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
MONTE DA TORRE station: a) 1961 - 1971, b) 1931–2007
SPI 24
y = -0.0009x + 0.0432
-3
-2
-1
0
1
21
96
3
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
SPI 24 y = -0.0008x + 0.3682
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
19
32
19
33
19
34
19
35
19
36
19
37
19
38
19
39
19
40
19
41
19
42
19
43
19
44
19
45
19
46
19
47
19
48
19
49
19
50
19
51
19
52
19
53
19
54
19
55
19
56
19
57
19
58
19
59
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
MOURA station: a) 1932 - 1941, b) 1931–2007
SPI 24 y = 0.0326x - 2.2491
-3
-2
-1
0
1
21
93
2
19
33
19
34
19
35
19
36
19
37
19
38
19
39
19
40
19
41
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
SPI 24 y = -0.0006x + 0.2801
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
19
32
19
33
19
34
19
35
19
36
19
37
19
38
19
39
19
40
19
41
19
42
19
43
19
44
19
45
19
46
19
47
19
48
19
49
19
50
19
51
19
52
19
53
19
54
19
55
19
56
19
57
19
58
19
59
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
SANTA IRIA station: a) 1980 - 2007, b) 1931–2007
SPI 24 y = 0.0022x - 0.3345
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
31
98
2
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
SPI 24 y = -0.0006x + 0.2853
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
19
32
19
33
19
34
19
35
19
36
19
37
19
38
19
39
19
40
19
41
19
42
19
43
19
44
19
45
19
46
19
47
19
48
19
49
19
50
19
51
19
52
19
53
19
54
19
55
19
56
19
57
19
58
19
59
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
SOBRAL DA ADIHA station: a) 1980 - 2007, b) 1931–2007
SPI 24 y = 0.0019x - 0.2897
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
31
98
2
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
SPI 24 y = -0.0006x + 0.2811
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
19
32
19
33
19
34
19
35
19
36
19
37
19
38
19
39
19
40
19
41
19
42
19
43
19
44
19
45
19
46
19
47
19
48
19
49
19
50
19
51
19
52
19
53
19
54
19
55
19
56
19
57
19
58
19
59
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
VILA VERDE DE FICALHO station: a) 1980 - 1985, b) 1931–2007
SPI 24 y = 0.0844x - 1.6876
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
1982
1983
1984
1985
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
SPI 24 y = -0.0006x + 0.2958
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
19
32
19
33
19
34
19
35
19
36
19
37
19
38
19
39
19
40
19
41
19
42
19
43
19
44
19
45
19
46
19
47
19
48
19
49
19
50
19
51
19
52
19
53
19
54
19
55
19
56
19
57
19
58
19
59
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
SALVADA station: a) 1957 - 2007, b) 1931–2007
SPI 24
y = -0.0007x + 0.1957
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
31
95
9
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
SPI 24 y = -0.0004x + 0.2063
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
19
32
19
33
19
34
19
35
19
36
19
37
19
38
19
39
19
40
19
41
19
42
19
43
19
44
19
45
19
46
19
47
19
48
19
49
19
50
19
51
19
52
19
53
19
54
19
55
19
56
19
57
19
58
19
59
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
MESQUITA station: a) 1980 - 2007, b) 1931–2007
SPI 24 y = -0.0012x + 0.1748
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
31
98
2
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
SPI 24 y = -0.0002x + 0.0785
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
19
32
19
33
19
34
19
35
19
36
19
37
19
38
19
39
19
40
19
41
19
42
19
43
19
44
19
45
19
46
19
47
19
48
19
49
19
50
19
51
19
52
19
53
19
54
19
55
19
56
19
57
19
58
19
59
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
GAMMA
Linear(GAMMA)
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF SPI FOR TIME SCALE EQUAL TO:
3 MONTHS 6 MONTHS12 MONTHS24 MONTHS
LINEAR TREADLINE SLOPE COEFFICIENT FOR GAMMA DISTRIBUTIONOF THE SPI 3, SPI 6, SPI 12 and SPI 24
Only in 2 stations among 21 stations, possitive treadline slope appears for SPI 3, SPI 6, SPI 12 and SPI 24
The slope of trend line for the SPI-3 months-9 -8.8 -8.6 -8.4 -8.2 -8 -7.8 -7.6 -7.4 -7.2 -7
37
37.2
37.4
37.6
37.8
38
38.2
38.4
38.6
38.8
39
FAR O
BEJA
SETU BAL
EVO R A
SAN TAR EM
PO R TALEG R E
BEJA
EVO RASETU BAL
FAR O
SPAIN
-0 .00042-0.0004-0.00038-0.00036-0.00034-0.00032-0.0003-0.00028-0.00026-0.00024-0.00022-0.0002-0.00018-0.00016-0.00014-0.00012-0.0001-8E-005-6E-005-4E-005-2E-00502E-0054E-0056E-0058E-0050.0001
The slope of trend line for the SPI-6 months-9 -8.8 -8.6 -8.4 -8.2 -8 -7.8 -7.6 -7.4 -7.2 -7
37
37.2
37.4
37.6
37.8
38
38.2
38.4
38.6
38.8
39
FAR O
BEJA
SETU BAL
EVO R A
SAN TAR EM
PO R TALEG R E
BEJA
EVO R ASETU BAL
FAR O
SPAIN
-0.0007-0.00065-0.0006-0.00055-0.0005-0.00045-0.0004-0.00035-0.0003-0.00025-0.0002-0.00015-0.0001-5E-00505E-0050.00010.000150.00020.000250.0003
The slope of trend line for the SPI-12 months-9 -8.8 -8.6 -8.4 -8.2 -8 -7.8 -7.6 -7.4 -7.2 -7
37
37.2
37.4
37.6
37.8
38
38.2
38.4
38.6
38.8
39
FAR O
BEJA
SETU BAL
EVO R A
SAN TAR EM
PO R TALEG R E
BEJA
EVO R ASETU BAL
FAR O
SPAIN
-0.0014
-0.0013
-0.0012
-0.0011
-0.001
-0.0009
-0.0008
-0.0007
-0.0006
-0.0005
-0.0004
-0.0003
-0.0002
-0.0001
0
0.0001
0.0002
0.0003
The slope of trend line for the SPI-24 months-9 -8.8 -8.6 -8.4 -8.2 -8 -7.8 -7.6 -7.4 -7.2 -7
37
37.2
37.4
37.6
37.8
38
38.2
38.4
38.6
38.8
39
FAR O
BEJA
SETU BAL
EVO R A
SAN TAR EM
PO R TALEG R E
BEJA
EVO R ASETU BAL
FAR O
SPAIN
-0.0018
-0.0016
-0.0014
-0.0012
-0.001
-0.0008
-0.0006
-0.0004
-0.0002
0
0.0002
0.0004
0.0006
