5G: Reality vs. Hype

TBR

TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS RESEARCH, INC.

5G: Separating myth from reality

Technology Business Research Webinar Series

May 26, 2015

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2 TBR Webinar Series | 5.26.15 | www.tbri.com | ©2015 Technology Business Research, Inc.

Your presenter

Michael Sullivan-TrainorExecutive Analyst, TelecomEmail: [email protected]: @mikest

5G Webinar

mailto:[email protected]

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5G webinar agenda

•What is 5G?

oWhen will it happen?

oBenefits/Challenges

•Regional View

•Market Impact

•NFV/SDN Connection

•Leading Operators

•Leading Suppliers

5G Webinar

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What is 5G?

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5G

Speed

Peak data rate of 10Gbps

Latency

Under one millisecond, which is 50 times faster than 4GCapacity

100 to 1,000 times more capacity than 4G

Technology

Densely deployed small cells, NFV, massive MIMO antenna designs, RAN technology internetworking

5G: Not a panacea, though consensus formed around speed, capacity, latency and technology requirements

5G Webinar

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5G realization: No Big Bang5G Webinar

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5G realization: Fireworks5G Webinar

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20192015 2018 2020

• 5GPP Proof of Concepts• Joint EU, South Korea, Japan

research• Pan-European experimental

infrastructure• Ongoing R&D projects within

operators and suppliers

• Demonstration at Winter Olympics in PyeongChang, South Korea• Large-scale demonstrations

and trials• Regulatory support, system

definition and optimization, validation trials, standards consensus

• 1Gbps bandwidth commercial demonstration at 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo• First commercial offers by

operators

5G Timeline

20172016

5G deployment will gradually evolve based on the collaboration of operators, suppliers and nations

5G Webinar

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The process of 5G will result in ongoing innovation and challenges to support expanding Internet of Things and multimedia use cases

5G Webinar

5G Benefits:

•Media everywhere catering to user-defined performance requirements

• Internet of Things (IoT) applications requiring massive data analytics in multimode environments

•Mission-critical IoT

• Augmented/virtual reality commerce and gaming

5G Challenges:

•Massive carrier aggregation

•Massive MIMO

• Standards consensus

• Spectrum

• Diffusion of R&D efforts

• Lack of business focus

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Regional and Market Impacts

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Regional view: Densely populated, fiber-rich first movers stimulating larger investments by governments and operators

5G Webinar

AsiaJapan, Korea, China are in front

EMEA The EU makes its move

Americas Lagging but groundwork started

Regional View

• Japan’s NTT DoCoMo successfully trialed 4.5Gbps in a test with Ericsson.

• Hong Kong Telecom achieved 450Mbps utilizing three FDD Carrier Aggregation. Next is 1Gbps service on path to 10Gbps, all with Huawei.

• The EU announced the 5G Public-Private Partnership (5G PPP) investing €700 million to accelerate 5G development.

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Market impact: 5G will spur monetization opportunities in new and traditional operator business models

5G Webinar

Impact on Video Services:• Real HD TV Everywhere• Programming and advertising

models designed for flexible viewing and device optimization will add value to content bundles.

Impact on Internet of Things (IoT):• Maximum flexibility• Autonomous processes supported

by real-time deep analytics• Self-driving cars, industrial

processes, remote medicine

Impact on Communication Services:• Now it gets personal• Personalized video messaging,

instant meetings and secure transactions

Impact

Impact on Access Services:• Anywhere, any way• User-defined access will be

offered at an elevated average revenue per account.

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The NFV/SDN juggernaut to virtualize, automate and orchestrate the service provider network overtook the drive to 5G

5G Webinar

5G is dependent on a highly automated, intelligent network that can deliver on requirements efficiently.

NFV and SDN enable the immediate cost and service time-to-market efficiencies required for 5G.

The pace of change in the industry suggests NFV and SDN will be in place in time for the engineering breakthroughs required to deliver 5G by 2020.

The NFV/SDN Connection

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Leading Operators and Suppliers

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Leading operators: NTT — strategic imperative; Vodafone — global play; AT&T — agility first

5G Webinar

HIGH

HIGHLOW

Stra

tegi

c Im

port

ance

Rate of Adoption

Operator Positioning

• Early Adopter

• Mainstream

• Laggard

KEY• AT&T • Telefonica

• NTT

• Vodafone

• Bharti

• Rest of operators

• Verizon

• KT• SK Telecom

• SoftBank

• Etisalat

• China Mobile

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Leading suppliers: Huawei — evolver; Nokia — Liquid Networks; Samsung — first mover

5G Webinar

HIGH

HIGHLOW

Stra

tegi

c Im

port

ance

Rate of Adoption

Vendor Positioning

• Early Adopter

• Mainstream

• Laggard

KEY

• Ericsson• Nokia

• Alcatel-Lucent

• NEC

• Huawei

• ZTE• Samsung

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1

Business Models

• Commodity• Premium

Machine Models

•Autonomous• Intuitive

2

Consumption Models

•User-defined• Custom

Beyond 5G technology: New ways to interact with and monetize technology enabled by the network

3

5G Webinar

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TBR’s Telecom Practice covers telecom operators and vendors globally

5G Webinar

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Telecom Vendors

Telecom syndicated research coverage

Market Research Telecom Operators

Alcatel-LucentCisco SystemsEricssonHP Telecom & MobilityHuaweiIBM Telecom & MobilityJuniper NetworksNokia NetworksSamsung NetworksZTE

Telecom Infrastructure Services Global Market Forecast**

Telecom Infrastructure Services North America Market Forecast**

Telecom Vendor BenchmarkTelecom Infrastructure Services

BenchmarkTelecom Infrastructure Services

Margin Benchmark**

NFV Market Forecast** AT&TComcast SprintT-Mobile USATime Warner CableVerizon

U.S. & Canada Mobile Operator Benchmark

Carrier Cloud Benchmark*Enterprise Operator Benchmark*

Carrier Cloud Market Forecast**

NFV Market Landscape*Alternative Network Provider

Market Landscape*5G Market Landscape*Small Cells Market Landscape*Wi-Fi First Market Landscape*

Telecom Software Mediated Networks Customer Adoption Study*

*Semiannual publication **Annual publication

Vendor Reports Benchmarks Market LandscapesMarket Forecasts Customer Study

5G Webinar

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Telecom market landscape report description and schedule

1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15

• NFV Market Landscape

• Alternative Network Providers Market Landscape

• Small-cell Market Landscape

• 5G Market Landscape

• NFV Market Landscape

• Alternative Network Providers Market Landscape

• Small-cell Market Landscape

• 5G Market Landscape

MARKET LANDSC

APE

Includes key findings, market size, customer adoption, operator positioning and strategies, geographic adoption, vendor positioning and strategies, and acquisition and alliance strategies and opportunities

SMALL CELL

5G

ALTERNATIVE NETWORK

PROVIDERS

NFV

5G Webinar

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Questions?

Twitter: @TBRincSlideShare: www.slideshare.net/TBR_Market_InsightYouTube: www.youtube.com/user/TBRIChannelLinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/technology-business-research

James McIlroy Vice President of SalesEmail: [email protected]: 603.929.1166

Michael Sullivan-TrainorExecutive Analyst, TelecomEmail: [email protected]: @mikest

5G Webinar

https://twitter.com/TBRinc

http://www.slideshare.net/TBR_Market_Insight

http://www.youtube.com/user/TBRIChannel

http://www.linkedin.com/company/technology-business-research



TBR

TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS RESEARCH, INC.

About TBR

Technology Business Research, Inc. is a leading independent technology market research and consulting firm specializing in the business and financial analyses of hardware, software, professional services, telecom and enterprise network vendors, and operators.

Serving a global clientele, TBR provides timely and actionable market research and business intelligence in formats that are tailored to clients’ needs. Our analysts are available to further address client-specific issues or information needs on an inquiry or proprietary consulting basis.

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This report is based on information made available to the public by the vendor and other public sources. No representation is made that this information is accurate or complete. Technology Business Research will not be held liable or responsible for any decisions that are made based on this information. The information contained in this report and all other TBR products is not and should not be construed to be investment advice. TBR does not make any recommendations or provide any advice regarding the value, purchase, sale or retention of securities. This report is copyright-protected and supplied for the sole use of the recipient. Contact ©Technology Business Research, Inc. for permission to reproduce.


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