Source: Johns Hopkins University; World Bank. Note: Figure shows the number of new daily cases. Last observation is May 14, 2020. New COVID-19 cases Overview • • • Chart of the Month • • • Special Focus: Set up to fail? The collapse of commodity agreements • • • Table of Contents 0 30 60 90 28-Jan 7-Feb 17-Feb 27-Feb 8-Mar 18-Mar 28-Mar 7-Apr 17-Apr 27-Apr 7-May 17-May 27-May US, EU, and UK EMDEs excl. China Cases, thousands Global Monthly May 2020
Transcript
Source: Johns Hopkins University; World Bank.
Note: Figure shows the number of new daily cases. Last observation is May 14, 2020.
New COVID-19 cases
Overview
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Chart of the Month
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Special Focus: Set up to fail? The collapse of commodity agreements
Source: Bloomberg; Haver Analytics; World Bank. A. GFC = global financial crisis. Figure shows quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted annualized rate for the lowest rate recorded over the periods indicated and the last observation in 2020, which is 2020Q1. "Pre-GFC" refers to the period 1992Q2-2006Q4 for China, 1980Q2-2006Q4 for Euro Area, and 1970Q2-2006Q4 for United States. B. Figure shows year-on-year auto sales for April 2020. C. Stock markets in the United States, Europe, and EMDEs are represented by the S&P 500, Stoxx 600, and Emerging Markets MSCI Index, respectively. Volatility is measured by the VIX implied volatility index of option prices on the U.S. S&P 500. Last observation is May 7, 2020.
FIGURE 1.A Growth in 2020Q1 compared to recent troughs
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FIGURE 2.B Capital flows to EMDEs
FIGURE 2.A Sovereign and corporate bond downgrades
FIGURE 2.C U.S. oil rig count
Source: Baker Hughes; Bloomberg; Institute of International Finance; World Bank. A. Bars indicate the number of countries whose sovereign rating was downgraded by either Moody’s, Standard & Poor's, or Fitch rating agencies during the quarter. High-yield US corporate debt downgrades indicates the number of high-yield corporate bonds downgraded by Standard & Poor's during the quarter. B. Figure shows accumulated daily flows since January 22, 2020, the date that the World Health Organization (WHO) first observed human-to-human COVID-19 transmission. Last observation is May 7, 2020. C. Figure shows weekly data. Last observation is May 15, 2020.
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FIGURE 3.B Mobility: Euro Area
FIGURE 3.A Mobility: United States
FIGURE 3.C Mobility: Japan
Source: Apple COVID-19 Mobility Tracker; World Bank. A.-C. Figure shows the 7-day moving average since January 22, 2020, the date that the World Health Organization (WHO) first observed human-to-human COVID-19 transmission. Shaded region indicates range. Mobility data show the percent change in the relative volume of direction requests compared to a baseline volume on January 13, 2020. A. Figure uses mobility data for driving. Sample includes 50 U.S. states. B. Figure uses an average of mobility data for driving, transit, and walking. Sample includes 17 advanced economies. C. Figure uses mobility data for driving. Sample includes 27 prefectures in Japan.
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FIGURE 4.B GDP growth and PMI, by EMDE group
FIGURE 4.A China trade
FIGURE 4.C New export orders and industrial production in EMDEs
Source: Haver Analytics; J.P. Morgan; World Bank. Note: EMDE = emerging markets and developing economies. A. Figure shows export and import values in current U.S. dollars. Last observation is April 2020. B.C. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings above (below) 50 indicate expansion (contraction) in economic activity. Green dashed line indicates expansionary threshold. B. Sample includes five commodity exporters and seven commodity importers for GDP growth and 14 commodity exporters and nine commodity importers for PMI. Last observation is 2020Q1 for GDP growth and April 2020 for PMI. C. New export orders are represented by PMI. Last observation is April 2020 for new export orders and March 2020 for industrial production.
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FIGURE 5.B Change in oil demand among OECD member and non-member countries
FIGURE 5.A Change in commodity prices after agreements were formed, and after they collapsed
FIGURE 5.C OPEC oil production as a share of global production
Source: BP Statistical Review 2019; International Energy Agency; World Bank. A. Figure shows simple averages of the three-year period after commodity agreements were implemented and collapsed. I: OPEC, II: East Asian Financial Crisis, III: Global Financial Crisis, IV: OPEC+ production increases, V: OPEC + COVID Crisis. B. Non-OPEC (1998) includes Norway, Mexico, Oman and Russia. Non-OPEC (2016) includes Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, Sudan and South Sudan. U.S. + Canada (2020) offered to contribute production reductions through market and voluntary contractions. Shares of 2020 are as of April 2020. C. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) was founded with 20 member states in 1961. As of 2010, the sample for OECD includes 36 member states.
Special Focus: Set up to fail? The collapse of commodity agreements.
FIGURE 6.B Crude oil production in the three largest producers, since 2018
FIGURE 6.A Market shares of the three largest producers
FIGURE 6.C OPEC+ targeted production change from March 2020
Source: BP Statistical Review 2019; International Energy Agency (IEA); OPEC; World Bank. B. Last observation is March 2020. Shaded area indicates forecasts for April to June 2020 based on IEA estimates and OPEC+ announcements. C. Figure shows expected change in oil production among OPEC+ compared with March levels, based on production announcements. Diamonds show headline cuts—the reduction in production compared with baseline levels (October 2019 for most countries; 11mb/d for Russia and Saudi Arabia).
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Recent Prospects Group Publications
Global Economic Prospects—June 2020 (forthcoming)
Commodity Markets Outlook - April 2020: Implications of COVID-19 for Commodities
Global Economic Prospects - January 2020
Global Waves of Debt: Causes and Consequences
A Decade since the Global Recession: Lessons and Challenges for Emerging and Developing Economies
Recent World Bank Working Papers
The Sooner, the Better : The Early Economic Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Determinants of Social Distancing and Economic Activity during COVID-19 : A Global View
Price Controls: Good Intentions, Bad Outcomes
The Potential Impact of COVID-19 on GDP and Trade : A Preliminary Assessment
Prospects, Risks, and Vulnerabilities in Emerging and Developing Economies: Lessons from the Past Decade
Policy Challenges for Emerging and Developing Economies: Lessons from the Past Decade
Recent World Bank Reports
Global Investment Competitiveness Report 2019/2020 : Rebuilding Investor Confidence in Times of Uncertainty
State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2020
Tracking SDG 7 : The Energy Progress Report 2020
Adaptive Social Protection : Building Resilience to Shocks
How COVID-19 is Changing the World : A Statistical Perspective
Africa's Pulse, No. 21, Spring 2020 : An Analysis of Issues Shaping Africa’s Economic Future
TABLE: Major Data Releases (Percent change, y/y)
(Percent change y/y)
Recent releases: April 28, 2020 - May 27, 2020 Upcoming releases: May 28, 2020 - June 27, 2020
Country Date Indicator Period Actual Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous
Australia 4/28/20 CPI Q1 2.2% 1.8% Brazil 5/29/20 GDP Q1 1.7%
France 4/30/20 GDP Q1 -5.4% 0.9% France 5/29/20 GDP Q1 -5.4%
Italy 4/30/20 GDP Q1 -4.8% 0.1% India 5/29/20 GDP Q1 4.7%
South Korea 5/3/20 CPI APR 0.1% 1.0% Italy 5/29/20 GDP Q2 -4.8%
Indonesia 5/4/20 CPI APR 2.7% 3.0% Turkey 5/29/20 GDP Q1 6.0%
Turkey 5/4/20 CPI APR 10.9% 11.9% South Korea 6/1/20 GDP Q1 1.3%
Indonesia 5/5/20 GDP Q1 3.0% 5.0% Australia 6/2/20 GDP Q1 2.2%
Brazil 5/8/20 CPI APR 2.4% 3.3% Indonesia 6/2/20 CPI MAY 2.7%
China 5/11/20 CPI APR 3.3% 4.4% South Africa 6/2/20 GDP Q1 -0.5%
India 5/12/20 IP MAR -16.7% 4.6% Turkey 6/3/20 CPI MAY 10.9%
United States 5/12/20 CPI APR 0.4% 1.5% Japan 6/7/20 GDP Q1 -2.2%
United Kingdom 5/13/20 GDP Q1 -1.6% 1.1% Germany 6/8/20 IP APR -11.4%
China 5/14/20 IP APR 3.9% -1.1% Euro Area 6/9/20 GDP Q1 -3.2%
