Date post: | 06-Apr-2018 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | abhinandants |
View: | 222 times |
Download: | 0 times |
of 17
8/3/2019 602-150211 Offshore Wind Market Analysis [WEB EDIT]
1/17
s ore n ar e na ys s: o ngs ore n ar e na ys s: o ng
Edited version
Adam Westwood
1
Offshore Wind Support Journal Conference, London. 15 February 2011
8/3/2019 602-150211 Offshore Wind Market Analysis [WEB EDIT]
2/17
Current status
Over 3 GW installed worldwide
1,200Belgium
offshore right now
Su ly chain has seen
1,000
W
Denmark
Germany
considerable growth and
investment600Capacity
UK
Others
Becoming increasinglyindependent from the onshore
400Installe
w n n us ry
There have been significant cost200
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2
8/3/2019 602-150211 Offshore Wind Market Analysis [WEB EDIT]
3/17
Market forecast Capacity
3.5
4.0Belgium
China
Denmark
2.5
3.0
acity
GW
Germany
Netherlands
UKUSA
1.5
2.0
InstalledCap
Othersor more n ormat on p ease contact
Douglas-Westwood
0.5
1.0
11 GW forecast to come online 2011-2015
0.02006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
The three biggest markets: UK 4.3 GW
3
China 1.2 GWSource: The World Offshore Wind Report 2011-2015. Douglas-Westwood
8/3/2019 602-150211 Offshore Wind Market Analysis [WEB EDIT]
4/17
Market forecast Capex
12
14Belgium
China
Denmark
8
10
iiture
bn
Germany
Netherlands
UKUSA
6
pitalExpend
Othersor more n ormat on p ease contact
Douglas-Westwood
2
C
38 billion of ca ital ex enditure ex ected 2011-2015
02006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
For more information
please contactDou las-Westwood
2011: 5bn 2015: 12bn
For more informationplease contact
Douglas-Westwood
4 UK alone will see 15bn capex this period
Source: The World Offshore Wind Report 2011-2015. Douglas-Westwood
please contact
Douglas-Westwood
8/3/2019 602-150211 Offshore Wind Market Analysis [WEB EDIT]
5/17
Growth in context
2010 2015
3.6 bn
1 GW
12.1 bn
3.6 GW
Capex
Capacity370
639
944
1,119
Turbines Foundations
For moreinformation pleasecontact Douglas-
Westwood
518 km21
1,444 km40
Cables Installation vessels s
5Source: The World Offshore Wind Report 2011-2015. Douglas-Westwood
8/3/2019 602-150211 Offshore Wind Market Analysis [WEB EDIT]
6/17
Market forecast Turbines
900
1,000Belgium
China
Denmark
600
700
Installed
Germany
Netherlands
UKUSA
400
500
Turbines
Othersor more n ormat on p ease contact
Douglas-Westwood
100
200
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
,
Major investment being seen in new turbine productionfacilities, with several new plants in the UK
6Source: The World Offshore Wind Report 2011-2015. Douglas-Westwood
8/3/2019 602-150211 Offshore Wind Market Analysis [WEB EDIT]
7/17
Market forecast Vessels
40
45Turbine installation
Foundation installation
25
30
35
req
uired
Infield cable installation
Export cable installation
15
20
llationvessel or more n ormat on p ease contact
Douglas-Westwood
5
10Instal
Minimum installation vessel re uirements b 2015:
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
12 turbine installation vessels 15 foundation installation vessels
7
14 cable installation vessels
Source: The World Offshore Wind Report 2011-2015. Douglas-Westwood
8/3/2019 602-150211 Offshore Wind Market Analysis [WEB EDIT]
8/17
Market forecast Personnel Transfer Vessels
250
300
Construction Operations
200
elsrequired
100
150
ransferVess or more n ormat on p ease contact
Douglas-Westwood
50
Personnel
Hi h rowth sector
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
86 vessels in use last year High demand for new vessels between 16-70 new vessels
8
needed each year
Source: The World Offshore Wind Report 2011-2015. Douglas-Westwood
8/3/2019 602-150211 Offshore Wind Market Analysis [WEB EDIT]
9/17
Market Dynamics
Key points
After 5 years of increases, costs have started to flatten off Requirement upon financial sector is enormous and represents a
major challenge considering the capacity in prospect
Continued long-term support from government remains essential Needed for investors and supply chain companies to gain the
Already several examples of what happens when governments dont
commit
9
8/3/2019 602-150211 Offshore Wind Market Analysis [WEB EDIT]
10/17
Markets Europe
UK
This has provided sufficient structure and reward
ROCs have now been increased & extended several times Enabled projects to proceed that wouldnt otherwise this
adaptiveness has been critical given cost increases
The UK lacked a significant supply chain, and saw little benefitfrom projects, but this is now changing
a or e ort to attract tur ne manu acturers as proven success u Multiple manufacturers now establishing here
and the impact of this on investment
10
8/3/2019 602-150211 Offshore Wind Market Analysis [WEB EDIT]
11/17
Markets Europe
Germany
German is now seein rowth Increased confidence in project delivery with a
competitive market mechanism and grid
connection policy
Supply chain is already strong a result of over 5
years of strategic development Financing of projects is a concern with less utility
11
8/3/2019 602-150211 Offshore Wind Market Analysis [WEB EDIT]
12/17
Markets Europe
Netherlands
Recent licensing of projects hasgiven a boost to the market
A lack of commitment hadpreviously clouded the outlook
Contracting on fully approved
But large scale development not
Dutch 2020 targets will require a
big push if they are to be met
12
8/3/2019 602-150211 Offshore Wind Market Analysis [WEB EDIT]
13/17
Markets Asia
China
Despite only recently entering the industry China has massive
ambitions
With firmer legislation & tariffs imminent, growth will be rapid Chinas recent onshore wind development demonstrates this Many shallow water (and inter-tidal) sites initially Up to $750 billion expected to be invested in renewables in the next
-year p an
13
8/3/2019 602-150211 Offshore Wind Market Analysis [WEB EDIT]
14/17
Markets Asia
China
further boost the renewables sector
We ex ect China to be the worlds biggest market within 10 years
Supply chain development is moving quickly multiple domesticmanufacturers now with offshore turbines
CNOOC is amongst the most ambitious developers at present Foreign involvement is restricted and will initially be minimal
South Korea
Emer in as a otential rowth market
14
Phase 1 of its first major project due in 2013
8/3/2019 602-150211 Offshore Wind Market Analysis [WEB EDIT]
15/17
Markets North America
USA
US DOE estimates 54 GW of offshore wind b 2030 Legislation is now coming together
$50m committed by DOE last week to speed up market development Final approval of Cape Wind project has provided an impetus Atlantic coast focus shallow waters & high local electricity demand
$5bn offshore transmission backbone planned here The supply chain must now respond,
First offshore projects may struggle to control costs
15
8/3/2019 602-150211 Offshore Wind Market Analysis [WEB EDIT]
16/17
Conclusions
The offshore wind industry is at its strongest ever Encouraging signs of cost reduction
This growth offers considerable opportunities in manufacturing,
UK will remain the market leader for most of this decade Not just Europe China will grow fast and could become the largest
market within ten years The stability of the industry remains a concern key countries must.
16
8/3/2019 602-150211 Offshore Wind Market Analysis [WEB EDIT]
17/17
Thank ou
17Donghai Bridge Offshore Wind Farm
this presentation can be downloaded fromwww.douglas-westwood.com