7 Steps to Becoming a Practical HR Futurist Presented by Michael D. Haberman, SPHR Omega HR Solutions, Inc.

“The goal of Futuring is not to predict the future but to improve it.”

-Edward Cornish

The 7 Steps

1. Engage in systems thinking and understand you mental models

2. Look back to look forward 3. Scan the environment 4. Look at the trends 5. Develop scenarios 6. Do your forecasting 7.“DO”

Thinking about the Wine System

Mental Models- Assumptions & Biases

• People enjoy drinking wine • Seems more and more people

are drinking wine based on Meet Up groups and wine clubs

• Ready market • Ready availability of raw

materials • How hard is it to grow grapes?

Looking Back to Look Forward The importance of history

• A very ancient drink • Harder to make than beer,

thus was more expensive • Required a particular climate • Became wide spread through

the climate • Came to the US in the 1700

primarily from France • Established in California • Became more widespread in

the 20th century • Established in Georgia in the

early 1980’s

“Future studies do not rely on clairvoyance but on a simple method of collecting information, analyzing it with the future in mind, and telling the story to your organization.” Eric Garland

Two Types of Scanning

Scanning The ongoing year round process of looking for trends and events that may have implications for the organization.

The Scan This is the same activity as in scanning but it is focused on a particular activity.

What do you scan for?

STEEP: Social, Technological, Environmental, Economics, Political

STEEPLE: Social, Technological, Environmental, Economics, Political. Legal and Ethical

THE FOUR FORCES: Resources, Technology, Demographics, Governance

DEGEST: Demography, Economy, Government, Environmental, Society, Technology

Social Scanning

• Demographics • Family life • Health • Religion • Immigration

• Baby boomers make up core drinkers

• Millennials are drinking wine in greater numbers, especially older Millennials

• Gen X has increased wine drinking up 20%

• Women are the biggest group of wine drinkers, but men are increasing

• African-American women, long the largest abstinence group are starting to enjoy a glass of wine

Technology Scanning • Biotechnology • Chemistry • Information

technology • Manufacturing • Nanotechnology • Robotics • Genetics

• Increases in the sophistication related processing equipment

• Stainless steel aging versus oak barrel aging

• Changes in packaging- an increased use of boxes instead of bottles

• Changes in preserving- changes in the corks

• Easy availability of wine coolers

• Inventory tracking advances- RF scanning

Economics Scanning • Globalization • Poverty- rich/poor

gap • Inflation/Recession • Currency fluctuation • Market

• Personal discretionary spending is up the most since 2008

• Increasing size of the “middle class”

• Inflation rates remain low

• Global economic factors seem to have a minimal effect at this time

• Fuel prices are rising

Environmental (Ecology) Scanning

• Global warming • Clean water • Air quality • Agriculture • Increasing severity of

storms

• Changing growing season

• Drought possibility • Effect of pollution on

plant growth

Political (Legal) • Lawsuits • Government

regulations • Legislative trends • International

governing bodies • Wars & regional

conflicts

• Laws allowing Sunday alcohol sales

• Potential taxes • Crackdown on

drinking and driving • Licensing issues

Forecasting

Forecasting consists of creating alternative futures. By considering alternative futures you may reduce the likelihood and the magnitude of being surprised.

Look for forecasts, as many as you can, from different experts. You are looking for fundamental shifts that have the potential of shaking the core of the organization.

Experts will usually have a good idea of what the future looks like in their own fields, but you will have to combine multiple views to envision its effects on you.

Backcasting

The Use of Scenarios The future is a set of plausible outcomes rather than one future to be discovered. • Scenarios are stories. • Talk in terms of people

and specifics. • They should be based on

multiple trends. • They can be broad or

focused.

There are four scenarios you should do, four futures you should create. These are: • Probable • Preferred • Plausible • Possible

My Scenarios Probable Baby boomer continue as the mainstay of wine drinkers. Older millennials continue to drink wine, but younger millennials don’t join in. Wine drinking remains a habit of primarily better off white drinkers.

Preferred Beer drinking really falls out of favor and wine drinking increases among men, younger millennials, and minority populations. Wine drinking is seen as affordable, yet sophisticated and crosses cultures.

Plausible Due to changing fashion wine drinking becomes seen as “snooty”, and millennials, more susceptible to fashion trends abandon wine for other drinks. Boomers continue as a mainstay but their population is declining. Minority groups also change.

Possible/Disaster Due to health concerns, safety concerns, and religious concerns there is a concerted push against alcohol consumption. Politicians are driven to consider “prohibition” style legislation, perhaps not on the Federal level but on the state level.

Impact/Probability Matrix High Impact

Low Impact

Low Probability

High Probability

Business as usual Flash-in-the-Pan

Brewing storm

Probable

Possible Preferred

Plausible

How to get started

• Decide you are going to spend 5% of your time • Look at your organization with a critical eye,

understand the history and the mental models • List the areas that are currently causing you

problems • Find sources of information and look for trends

and forecasts • Divide and conquer • Read and research outside your comfort area • Track what you find

Drivers of the Future • Aging- median age is increasing around the world • Healthcare- delivery and technology • Technology- includes nanotechnology, robotics,

biotechnology, genetics and the Internet • Energy- current and future supplies of fossil fuels,

alternative fuels • Environment- global warming, water and air

quality, sustainability • Powershift - China, India, South America,

Indonesia • Media & communication- merging digital

devices, centralization of media ownership, changing views of the truthfulness of media messages

Resources Books Other resources/ websites

• Future Files- Richard Watson • Think Like a Futurist- Cecily

Sommers • Lessons from the Future-

Stan Davis • Future, Inc. – Eric Garland • Futuring: The Exploration

of the Future- Edward Cornish • Thinking about the Future-

Hines and Bishop • Managing the Future-

Stephen Millet • Teaching about the Future-

Bishop and Hines • Scenario Planning- Gill

Ringland

• www.pewsocialtrends.org/ • www.consumersunion.org/res

earch-policies/ • www.conference-board.org/ • www.bls.gov/home.htm • www.thefuturist.com • www.wfs.org • www.hermangroup.com • www.naisbitt.com • www.toffler.com • Google “megatrends”

Contact Information

Michael D. Haberman, SPHR Omega HR Solutions, Inc. Website: www.omegahrsolutions.com Twitter: @mikehaberman LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/michaeldhaberman Email: mhaberman@omegahrsolutions.com