8 - EARS - Presentation Flow Forecasting and Drought Monitoring WB-IHP-III-Sep-16

EARS Satellite data for Climate Water and Food

Meteosat Flow Forecasting &

Drought Monitoring

Andries Rosema

EARS Earth Environment Monitoring BV

Delft, The Netherlands


• Remote sensing company since 1977

• Delft, the Netherlands

• Energy & Water Balance Monitoring

• Using geostationary meteorological satellites

• Climate, Water and Food applications:

EARS Earth Environment Monitoring BV

River flow forecasting

Drought monitoring

Crop yield forecasting

Crop insurance


Energy and Water Balance

Monitoring System


Meteosat

MSG

FY2c

METEOSAT IOC

MTSat


Energy en Water Balance

Radiation

Heat Evaporation Precipitation

Flow


Energy and Water Balance Monitoring System (EWBMS)

Rainfall

processing Clouds

Temperature

Albedo

Energy balance

processing

WMO stations

Precipitation

Radiation

Evaporation

Crop growth model

Hydrological

model

River flow forecasting

Crop yield forecasting

Drought processing

Drought monitoring

Meteosat

VIS & TIR


Rainfall product


Actual evapotranspiration product


Water balance validation

EWBMS rainfall & evapotranspiration Same but cumulative

0

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14

Cu

mu

lati

ve P

REC

/ E

T (

mm

)

ET (mm) PREC (mm)

y = 840.69x - 2E+06R² = 0.9982

y = 880.73x - 2E+06R² = 0.9951

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Cu

mu

lati

ve P

REC

/ E

T (

mm

)

Cum. ET (mm) Cum. PREC (mm)

• SW Burkina Faso reported run-off: 2-8% (Mahe et al. 2008)

• EWBMS using Meteosat: 4.5%


Time series (daily, 10-daily)


Complete river basins


Flow Forecasting


Upper Yellow RiverWei River

2

1

3

45

6

7

8

Wei River

Upper

Yellow River

Second largest river basin of

China

Yellow River basin project (2006-2009)


GMS / FY2 precipitation data

1st quarter 2000 2nd quarter 2000

3rd quarter 2000 4th quarter 2000


GMS / FY2 evapotranspiration data

1st quarter 2000 2nd quarter 2000

3rd quarter 2000 4th quarter 2000


Water balance validation

-4

-2

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12

Ju

l-0

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Se

p-0

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No

v-0

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Ja

n-0

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Ma

r-0

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Ma

y-0

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Ju

l-0

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p-0

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v-0

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r-0

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y-0

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p-0

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r-0

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y-0

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l-0

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Ne

t P

recip

ita

tio

n (

mm

)

-2

-1

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Riv

er

Dis

ch

arg

e (

mm

)

Net precipitation 5 days-floating average

River discharge at Tangnaihai

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y-0

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p-0

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r-0

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y-0

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l-0

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Wa

ter

(mm

)

Cum. evapotranspiration

Cum. net precipitation

Cum. precipitation

Cum. river discharge

Upper Yellow River


Land component: 2-dimensional diffusion process Surface & sub-surface flow

Large Scale Hydrological Model (LSHM)

Q(t)

Ql(t)

Ql(t)

River flow component:

Muskingum-Cunge routing

Q(t)

EWBMS Precipitation &

Evapotranspiration


Wei River flow simulation

R2 = 0.75

Vol. error = 4%

R2 = 0.80

Vol. error = 11%


Wei River 24 hr forecast

RMSE = 110 m3/s RRMSE = 0.37

COE = 0.75 R2 = 0.79


Upper Yellow River

flow simulation

Station R2 Volume

difference

Jimai 0.80 +17.9 %

Maqu 0.82 - 0.61%

Jungong 0.80 + 0.61%

Tangnaihai 0.80 - 0.67%


RMSE = 161 m3/s RRMSE = 0.17

COE = 0.84 R2 = 0.93

Upper Yellow River 24 hr forecast


22

High level interest at the

2nd International Yellow River Forum

Zhengzhou, October 2005


• By a Chinese high-level scientific commission

• Classification: “World Leading Level”

• 2nd Prize China Ministry of Water Resources

Yellow River project evaluation


• Niger Basin Authority, Niamey, Niger

• Operational implementation

• Drought monitoring

• River flow forecasting

Niger Basin project (2014-2017)


• Meteosat receiver

• PC network

• Software

– Pre-processing

– EWBMS

– LSHM

– Utility GIS

• Validation

• Calibration

• Training

Project components


Meteosat antenna

26


Receiving and processing office

27


Training

28


Drought monitoring


• Meteorological drought SPI

• Hydrological drought EP = P – Ea

• Agricultural drought RE = LEa/ LEp

• Climatic drought (> 1 yr)

– Climatic Moisture Index (UNEP) CMI = P / LEp

– Environmental Moisture Index EMI = LEa/ LEp

EWBMS drought information


Evapotranspiration & crop growth

• Evapotranspiration transpiration

• CO2 uptake proportional to crop growth

1-RY = k*(1-RE)

Doorenbos & Kassam (1979)

“Yield Response to Water”

FAO Irrigation & Drainage Paper 33


Relative evapotranspiration (RE)

Agricultural drought ìndex used for:

• Irrigation scheduling / water allocation

• Crop yield forecasting

• Agricultural drought insurance

Difference evapotranspiration (DE)

DE = (RE-REavg)/REavg

32


Drought monitoring East Africa

• DE East Africa

• Vuli season (Dec-Jan)

• Scale -30% to +30%

• Extreme drought in 2006

1997 2000

2003 2006


Irrigation patterns Niger delta


Start of 2014 growing season W-Africa


2014 Crop yield forecast


37

Long time series for index insurance design

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Dekad r

ela

tive e

vapotr

anspiratio

n (

RE

)

Pl.Mouh. Dande

• Location of growing season (starting window)

• Quality of growing season (RE)

• Historic risk assessment insurance premium


• Crops and livestock

• Drought and excessive precipitation

• In 10 African countries

• A dozen of insurance partners

• 23,000 farmers insured in 2013

• Target next 6 year: 1 million farmers

Index insurance


• Satellite based climate monitoring system

• Precipitation and evapotranspiration data

• Daily temporal resolution

• 3-5 km spatial resolution

• Distributed, transboundary

• Uniform

• Objective

• Validated

• Cost effective

• River flow forecasting

• Drought monitoring and water allocation

• Crop yield forecasting and crop insurance

Conclusions


What about India?


Meteosat Indian Ocean Coverage













Thank you for your attention

[email protected]

www.ears.nl



55 55

Rainfall processing

• Meteosat TIR

• Cloud top temperature

• Cloud level

• Cloud level durations (CDi)

• GTS rain gauge data (R)

• Regression: R = a0+a1CD1+a2CD2+ ….

• Calculate rainfall field

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12

160 180 200 220 240 260 280

Temperature (K)

Heig

ht (k

m)

cold

high

medium high

medium low


Evapotranspiration processing

Hourly TIR

TIR

VIS Cloud?

To,Ta, Ao, t

Ac , tc

In = (1-Ao) Ig – Lu

In = (1-Ao) tc Ig

H = (To-Ta) LE = In - H

LEp= 0.8 In

RE=LE/LEp

LE = 0.8*RE*In

Atm.corr.

Hourly VIS

Radiation

Sensible heat flux

Potential evaporation

Actual evaporation

Rel. evaporation

constant “Bowen ratio”

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8 - EARS - Presentation Flow Forecasting and Drought Monitoring WB-IHP-III-Sep-16

Presentations & Public Speaking