Intro to Statistics: Climate Change

Figure 1: Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) land-only surface temperature data (green) with linear trends applied to the timeframes 1973 to 1980, 1980 to 1988, 1988 to 1995, 1995 to 2001, 1998 to 2005, 2002 to 2010 (blue)

Figure 2: Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) land-only surface temperature data (green) with linear treneds applied from 1973 to 2010 (red).

Figure 3: Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) land-only surface temperature data (green) with linear trends applied to the timeframes 1973 to 1980, 1980 to 1988, 1988 to 1995, 1995 to 2001, 1998 to 2005, 2002 to 2010 (blue), and 1973 to 2010 (red).

What makes a “good” statistical reading?

• How does one collect data so as to:– Maintain ethical integrity?– Reflect the “real world”?– Answer your goals regarding

science?– Avoid mistakes of history?

• How does one interpret data such that:– Bias is reduced?– Understanding is progressing?– Dialogue is maintained?

• How does this use of data relate to the following:– Ethics– History– Emotion– Reason– Language

Week 13: Natural Science

AIO: EvolutionPP: Charles Darwin, Copernicus

Special audio notes on:

Intelligence Squared Debate: “Religion and Science are incompatible”Ted Talk: Ben Goldacre, “Bad Science”

• Readings:1. 153-1572. 158-1643. 165-1704. 171-1765. 177-1826. 183-189

Symphony of Science

Week 13: Natural ScienceAIO: Evolution

PP: Charles Darwin, CopernicusSpecial audio notes on:

Intelligence Squared Debate: “Religion and Science are incompatible”Ted Talk: Ben Goldacre, “Bad Science”

• Readings:1. 153-1572. 158-1643. 165-1704. 171-1765. 177-1826. 183-189

What is Science?• From the following quotes, what 5 ideas emerge concerning

what Science actually is? Construct a single sentence def.1. Real science is a revision in progress, always. It proceeds in fits

and starts of ignorance. -Stuart Firestein2. Science does not purvey absolute truth, science is a mechanism.

It’s a way of trying to improve your knowledge of nature, it’s a system for testing your thoughts against the universe and seeing whether they match. – Isaac Asimov

3. Science is a way of thinking much more than it is a body of knowledge. – Carl Sagan

4. One thing I have learned in a long life: that all our science, measured against reality, is primitive and childlike — and yet it is the most precious thing we have. –Hans Muhsam

5. All of science is uncertain and subject to revision. The glory of science is to imagine more than we can prove. - Freeman Dyson

6. One never notices what has been done; one can only see what remains to be done… - Marie Curie

7. Science alone of all the subjects contains within itself the lesson of the danger of belief in the infallibility of the greatest teachers of the preceding generation. – Richard Feynman

3 Ideas for the Week1. Scientific knowing is an evolving system that

limits uncertainty through observation, experimentation, and inductive/deductive reasoning.

2. Science as a language, ethos, and community reveals innate features of human identity and processing.

3. Scientific objectivity and cultural diversity, particularly religious knowing, are often at odds for various reasons. Why?

• The most beautiful thing we can experience is the mysterious. It is the source of all true art and science.

–Who said this? 

We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and technology, in which hardly anyone knows anything about science and technology. 

-Carl Sagan

“Modern” Knowledge• What types of knowing

exist in the modern world without science?

• How might different portraits and constraints of Science change our views of the world?

• Is all Science “progress”?• How much of our

understanding of Science is a reliance and assumption of workability (pragmatic) rather than true “knowing”?

“Types” of Science?• Natural Sciences:

– Space science– Earth Science– Life Science– Chemistry– Physics

• List 10 sub-categories in your notes

Science and TOK Knower• Science is a human

activity– Involves different

activities including thinking, observing and communicating

– Reason and Emotion; Sense perception; Language; Reason

Scientific Paradigm(s)• A paradigm is a set

of practices that define a scientific discipline at any particular period of time

• A thought pattern in an area of knowledge

• Underline the number of different “paradigms” mentioned today.

Scientific Method• From Aristotle to

today, humans have sought a pattern to our world encounters

• Developed alongside architecture, philosophy and history

• Roger Bacon (13th century) and the repeating cycle.

• Karl Popper (20th c.) and critical rationalism.

3 Ideas for the Week (Review)1. Scientific knowing is an evolving system that

limits uncertainty through observation, experimentation, and inductive/deductive reasoning.

2. Science as a language, ethos, and community reveals innate features of human identity and processing.

3. Scientific objectivity and cultural diversity, particularly religious knowing, are often at odds for various reasons. Why?

The Bedrock: Observation• Ways of Knowing:

– Put order from most to least important regarding “observation”• Sense perception,

emotion, reason, and intuition

• Historical:– How has our

understanding, our ability, and our limitations of observation in science developed over time?

Quite so! You have not observed. And yet you have seen. That is just my point. Now, I know that there are seventeen steps, because I have both seen and observed.

Activity: Double-Slit Experiment

Activity: Double-Slit Experiment

4/16/15 Notes and Discussion

1. Discuss your chapter observations1. How is Scientific knowing

different than other areas? Similar?

2. What is something surprising so far from our Science exploration?

Hypothesis• Order the following to tell the “correct”

story. 1. I had made a mistake…2. It seems to me much better…if you

admit in print that you were wrong3. The universe could have started out in a

smooth and ordered…or lumpy and disordered state.

4. Neither of these possibilities agrees with what we observe…

5. The universe would…become lumpy and disordered as time went on

6. One has to use a quantum theory of gravity…

7. Some people never admit they are wrong…

• How is “Hypothesizing” unique? Consider in relation to other language, such as “prediction”, “Guessing”, “Intuition”, “Knowledge”.

Experiment• Have you ever done

an “experiment”? Describe your last experiment and what new knowledge was gained.

• What are some of the purposes of Experiments?

• Does all natural science require “experiments”?

Science Aesthetic• How might serendipity

and creativity relate to natural discoveries, research problems, or even experimental solutions?

• Is this “intuition” a valid source of scientific knowing?

• How is this similar and different than “science for science sake” we often hear criticized in society?

Serendipity as Science?• Hofmann and LSD• Fleming and penicillin• Bequerel and

radioactivity• Fleming and ?• Roentgen and X-rays• Kekule and benzene• Leonardo• Frank Dyson• Archimdedes• Damadian and Carr

with the MRI

It seemed so simple and obvious. I don’t think it took a lot of insight as much as naïveté

-Dudley Hershbach, Nobel Prize Winner

Falsification and Repeatability• From previous discussions,

I offered the following theory of Knowledge as “knowledge is just as much about learning new things as _________”– How does this interact with

the scientific understanding of “falsification”?

• What type of certainty can science afford knowing its methodological/natural constraints?

Fill in the Blanks• The A model of Science

does not prove anything. One counter-example will B the hypothesis. Thus, scientists should make their theories C. Science should proceed through a series of D and E. Scientists should adopt a F attitude called G.

• Word Bank: conjectures; critical; disprove; falsificationism; inductivist; refutations; testable.

History of Science• What anthropic

principles are involved with the formation of science?

• What fields of science have persisted since the beginning of human thought? – List 5

History1. Metallurgy2. Medicine3. Greeks and

Natural Philosophy

4. Modern Science5. Quantum

uncertainty and relativism

Scientific Revolution (16-18th c.)

• How does this time period differ from the gradual evolution of scientific thought in the past?

• What are some factors that contribute to the scientific revolution?

Scientific Thought Ordering• Put in the right order. What does

the development of scientific thought over time reveal?

• Put these statements in order:

1. Robert Hooke showed that plants are made of compartments

2. They remind him of monks’ “cells”3. Robert Brown observed and

named the “nucleus”4. In the 17th century, most scientists

believed that life arose by spontaneous generation from dead matter.

5. Robert Remak first described the division of cells to make new ones

The Evolution and Application of Theory

• Paradigms shift when:– Too many “anomalies”

in the old make a new model more useful

– Can clarify, not remake, the old paradigm

– Can yield greater clarity, potential and progress for future knowing.

Science as Community1. What “external pressures”

exist in modern science? How does this affect research and knowing?

2. What types of Scientific Misconduct might there be?

3. “Publish or perish” is a growing phenomena in academia. What are some advantages and disadvantages?

4. What types of scientific careers are there? How might it change the “community”?

Science as Community• whether it’s the academic

psychologists doing the research, the statisticians they collaborate with, the academic journal editors and reviewers who decide whether or not the paper gets an easy ride into print, the press officers who decide whether or not to shepherd its  findings towards the public, or even, finally, the bloggers and journalists who write about it. At every step, there is room for fun results to get through, and for unwelcome results to fall off the radar.

Scientific Misconduct• A pooled weighted average of 1.97%

(N = 7, 95%CI: 0.86–4.45) of scientists admitted to have fabricated, falsified or modified data or results at least once –a serious form of misconduct by any standard– and up to 33.7% admitted other questionable research practices. In surveys asking about the behaviour of colleagues, admission rates were 14.12% (N = 12, 95% CI: 9.91–19.72) for falsification, and up to 72% for other questionable research practices. Meta-regression showed that self reports surveys, surveys using the words “falsification” or “fabrication”, and mailed surveys yielded lower percentages of misconduct. When these factors were controlled for, misconduct was reported more frequently by medical/pharmacological researchers than others.

Fanelli, Daniele. “How Many Scientists Fabricate and Falsify Research? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Survey Data.” PLoS ONE 4.5 (2009): e5738. PLoS ONE. Web. 21 Apr. 2013.

What’s in a Name?“Application and Research of Smalltalk Harnessing Based on Game-Theoretic Symmetries"; "An Evaluation of E-Business with Fin"; and "Simulating Flip-Flop Gates Using Peer-to-Peer Methodologies,"

Scientific Ethics: Necessary?• What sorts of ethical

presuppositions should be in place for science to:– Function honestly and

accurately?– Preserve its integrity in

promoting knowledge?– Preserve its character as

advancing humanity?

7 Rules of Scientific Conduct1. Act with skill and care, keep

skills up to date2. Prevent corrupt practice and

declare conflicts of interest3. Respect and acknowledge the

work of other scientists4. Ensure that research is justified

and lawful5. Minimize impacts on people,

animals and the environment6. Discuss issues science raises

for society7. Do not mislead; present

evidence honestly

Science and Culture• What factors within

different cultural groups may influence Scientific knowing?

• Can one defend an objective Scientific claim as a global truth apart from culture?

Science and Reason• Reason, much like

Science, is often presented devoid of substance beyond cold calculation and experimentation.

• How do we reason when we do science, not just from experiments, but moving towards a philosophical framework of knowing?

Science and Politics• What misconceptions

about science exist within the political way of thinking?

• Consider:– Education Policy– Voting demographics– Global Economy– Environment/Business

Activity: What is in the box?• In 30 seconds, list out

everything that could fit in this box.

• You will receive an object out of the box.

• As a class, put them in order on the front desk.

• You can’t talk to each other about your object, or about the placement.

• Write a TOK question about this activity.

Science and Religion• Watch the concluding

statements to the motion “Science Refutes God”1. Identify three distinct

arguments from each side.

2. What TOK observations can you make in the areas of knowing emphasized or in conflict?

3. What presuppositions do each side operate within?