Craig D. Allen

USGS Jemez Mountains Field StationBandelier National Monument

Los Alamos, New Mexico

Actuaciones específicas de gestión para la adaptación

Western Mountain Initiative

Further rapid warming projected

Sierra Nevada, octubre 2005

Sierra Nevada, octubre 2005

Presa baja, sur de Portugal,octubre 2005

Efectos ecologicos del cambio climático –

Andalucia

Erosion

Fuego

Sequia

Pinus sylvestris, en Sierra Nevada 2006

Quercus ilex, en Sierra Nevada 2006

Efectos ecologicos del cambio climático –

Andalucia

Mortalidadde arboles

Pinus sylvestris, en Sierra de Filabres – foto: Rafael Navarro

Climate Summits…

and this is the 14th already..

Get out of here !

And you worse !You even more !

Yeah, right !

No action in the face of climate change

is a decision that may carry the greatest risk.

But, what actions should we take?

Do we have science-based, practical options for directly managing ecosystems in flux, to adapt to climate change?

Vamos, vamos - uno, u otro…

A scientific basis for developing adaptation options

US Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.4 (SAP 4.4)

Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources

National ForestsNational ParksNational Wildlife RefugesWild and Scenic RiversNational EstuariesMarine Protected Areas

Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW)

Geoffrey M. Blate*, Linda Joyce, Susan Julius, Jeremy Littell, Steve McNulty, Connie Millar, Susi Moser, Ron Nielson, Kathy O’Hallaran, Dave Peterson, and Jordan West

Adapting to Climate Change in US National Forests

August 2008

Synthesis for USFS - Overall Findings

General Approaches Examples

Protect key ecosystem features Facilitate dispersal

Reduce anthropogenic stressors Prevent invasives; reduce pollution

Representation Increase genetic / habitat diversity

Replication Protect replicate populations

Restoration Use natives post-disturbance

Refugia ID / protect refugia for at-risk species

Relocation Assist species migrations

Adaptation options for managing for resilience

Confronting Climate Change Will Require Coordination & Collaboration

Multiple jurisdictions across large landscapes

Managing in the Face of Change

A Toolbox of Options

Adaptation Strategies:

Practice Resistance

Increase Resilience

Allow Forests to Respond

Realign Highly Altered Ecosystems

React after Disturbance or Extreme Events

Be Proactive: Plan in Advance

No Advance Planningfor climate change

Management - Research DialogueAssessments – Tools - Practices

React after Disturbance or Extreme Events

Be Proactive: Plan in Advance

No Advance Planningfor climate change

Management - Research DialogueAssessments – Tools - Practices

Adapting to Climate Change through Science-Management Partnerships

Dave PetersonUS Forest ServicePacific Northwest Research Station

Implement adaptive management

Incorporate uncertainty in science and management

View ecological disturbance as an opportunity

Work with your neighbors – collaborate with other organizations

General adaptation strategies

Implement adaptive management

Incorporate uncertainty in science and management

View ecological disturbance as an opportunity

Work with your neighbors – collaborate with other organizations

General adaptation strategies

Adaptation strategy #1Increase landscape diversity

Increase resilience at large scales--Treatments and spatial configurations

that minimize loss of large number of structural and functional groups

Increase size of management units -- Much larger treatments and

age/structural classes

Increase connectivity

Adaptation strategy #2Maintain biological diversity

Modify genetic guidelines

Experiment with mixed species, mixed genotypes

Assist colonization, establish neo-native species

Identify species, populations, and communities that are sensitive to increased disturbance

Adaptation strategy #3

Plan for post-disturbance management:

Treat fire and other ecological disturbance as normal, periodic occurrences

Incorporate fire management and other disturbance options in land management policies and plans

Adaptation strategy #4Reduce non-climatic sources of stress

Implement early detection/rapid response to control exotic species

Reduce sources of air pollution, toxins, erosion, etc. to the extent possible

Adaptation strategy #5

Manage for realistic outcomes

Identify key thresholds for species and processes.

Determine which thresholds will be exceeded (e.g., salmon & cold water).

Prioritize projects with high probability of success; abandon hopeless causes (triage).

Critical Threshold

Time

Temperature Increase

Climatic VariabilityClim

ate

Adaptation strategy #6Incorporate climate change in restoration

Reduce emphasis on historical references

Reduce use of guidelines based on static relationships (e.g., plant associations)

"I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been."

─ Wayne Gretzky

Advice from “The Great One”

"I run to where the ball is going to be, not to where it has been."

─ Fernando Torres

Adaptation strategy #7

Anticipate big surprises

Expect mega-droughts, larger fires, system collapses, species extirpations, etc.

Incorporate these phenomena in planning

TimeC

limat

e

Time

Eco

syst

em s

tate

Current thinking often emphasizes gradual changes.

Nate Stephenson

TimeC

limat

e

Time

Eco

syst

em s

tate

However, abrupt climatic change can lead to abruptecosystem change.

Nate Stephenson

TimeC

limat

e

Time

Eco

syst

em s

tate

However, gradual climatic change may triggerabrupt ecosystem change (threshold response).

Nate Stephenson

Lessons Learned – Keys for Success

• Start with this premise:Managers produce the adaptation options

• Establish a strong science-management collaboration

• Provide scientific documentation to support adaptation strategies

• Customize the adaptation process for preferences by resource managers

• Include stakeholders and the general public in the adaptation process

Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW)

Lessons Learned – Keys for Success

• Start with this premise:Managers produce the adaptation options

• Establish a strong science-management collaboration

• Provide scientific documentation to support adaptation strategies

• Customize the adaptation process for preferences by resource managers

• Include stakeholders and the general public in the adaptation process

Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW)

Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Another example, involving multiple land managers:

Cross et al, in review

Select Target +Define Management Objective

Yellowstone River flows(ecological process)

To maintainYellowstonecutthroat trout

Yellowstone Riverflows

quantity, quality, timing

grazingpractices

beaverripariancover

flood plainconditionupland forest

type/structure

snowpack

temperature + precipitation

groundwater

withdrawals(agri., urban)

impervioussurfaces

agriculturalpractices

urbangrowth

CONCEPTUALMODEL

wildfire

forestmanagement

Yellowstone Riverflows

quantity, quality, timing

snowpack

groundwater

withdrawals(agri., urban)

ripariancover

grazingpractices

beaver

flood plainconditionupland forest

type/structure

wildfire

forestmanagement

agriculturalpractices

impervioussurfaces

urbangrowth

warmer, drier,earlier spring

INITIAL CLIMATESCENARIO

snowpack

warmer, drier,earlier spring

groundwater

withdrawals(agri., urban)

ripariancover

grazingpractices

beaver

flood plainconditionupland forest

type/structure

wildfire

forestmanagement

agriculturalpractices

impervioussurfaces

urbangrowth

Lower baseflowsWarmer water tempsEarlier spring peak

Lower water O2

INITIAL CLIMATESCENARIO

+

-

-

∆

-?

-

∆

-

?

?-?

Yellowstone Riverflows

quantity, quality, timing

snowpack

temperature + precipitation

groundwater

withdrawals(agri., urban)

ripariancover

grazingpractices

beaver

flood plainconditionupland forest

type/structure

wildfire

forestmanagement

agriculturalpractices

impervioussurfaces

urbangrowth

INTERVENTIONPOINTS

Intervention PointsIntervention Points

Reduce livestockdensity

Fence riparian areas

Restore riparianvegetation

Decreasesedimentation

Increaseriparian shading

Install check dams Increase rainretention

High flows

Peakedhydrograph

Maintainwater quality

Maintainappropriate

water T

Desired ResponsesDesired ResponsesPotential ActionsPotential Actions

Build snow fences Increase localsnowpack

Purchase water rights Reducewithdrawals

Water conservation

Snowpackmanagement

Withdrawals

High elevationstreamflow

Beaverpopulations

Grazingpractices

Riparianvegetation

Impervioussurfaces

Reintroduce beaver

Reduce / remove roads

Interagency collaboration

Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park are developing a climate-change vulnerability assessment and adaptation options for the Olympic Peninsula

Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW)

• Water• Vegetation• Fisheries• Wildlife• Roads and

infrastructure

Understand and predict responses of Western mountain ecosystems to climatic variability and change –

Collaborative research among:

USGS, USFS, NPS, USA universities,

+ international

WESTERN MOUNTAIN INITIATIVE

Univ Alicante

Sierra Nevada, UGR

Mi paisaje, Sierra Jemez,en Nuevo Mexico.

Trabajo en un parque nacional, Bandelier National Monument.

Efectos ecologicos del cambio climático –

Nuevo Mexico

Fuego

Erosion

Mortalidad

Pinus edulis muriendo (roja) Sierra Jemez, October 2002

Despues 18 meses… Sierra Jemez, May 2004

Jemez Mts. salamanders (endemic) don’t know about our land boundaries….

Plethodon neomexicanum

Elk radiotelemetry locations in 2000, 2002 – they don’t care about land boundaries either

1954 American Springs Fire1977 La Mesa Fire1996 Dome Fire1998 Oso Complex Fire1910-1996 other fires2000 Cerro Grande Fire

Interaction: Post-Fire Erosion.

Cerro Grande Fire, May 2000

Reduced surface cover, increasing bare soil connectivity can lead to:

Threshold response - increased erosion D

ecre

asin

g E

rosi

on

Decreasing Cover

Soil Erosion Behavior

Uncertainty: Disturbance Interactions

• Interactions among dieback, insects, fire, and erosion can amplify the individual disturbance processes.

• Predicted climate changes could further accelerate these disturbance processes.

FIREFOREST

DROUGHT

EROSION

Despite uncertainties, together we can take management actions to better resist and adjust to climate stresses…

E.g., forest fuel structures also drive higher severity fire in some forest types

So, we can reduce forest densities with combinations of mechanical thinning and prescribed fire.

There is good evidence that some types of forest treatments in forests can mitigate climate-related wildfire events.

So, the need, and opportunity, exists here for collaborative, landscape-scale management….

Mechanical treatments are now being applied at broad scales.

These can also have other ecosystem benefits, e.g., coarse mulching with woody debris increases surface cover and infiltration capacity, leading to increased herbaceous growth.

E.g.,

Bandelier’s ongoing piñon-juniper woodland

restoration project…

Antes -

Despues…

Restored woodland at Bandelier, now more resilient to drought and fire.

Active crown fires Active crown fires burn explosively, burn explosively,

primarily in canopy primarily in canopy needles and twigs,needles and twigs,

<1 cm diameter, <1 cm diameter,

leaving scorched leaving scorched trunks and branches trunks and branches

unconsumed.unconsumed.

So, crown fire risks So, crown fire risks probably decrease probably decrease once dead needles once dead needles

drop.drop.

PostPost--diebackdiebackPostPost--crowncrown

firefire

FIR

E H

AZA

RD

high

low

TIME

Livestressed

forest

Dieback,dead needleson dead trees

Dead needles off trees, Surface fine fuels ,More exposed site

Dead trees start to fall,Herb and shrub and

tree regrowth,Coarse woody surface fuels

Surface Fire

Canopy Fire

Partial forest die-back = natural thinning

- might be beneficial for some forests…

- increased resilience to further mortality

- reduced crown fire risk

Cooperative Post-Fire Research Project, en Parque Nacional Sierra Nevada:

-Univ. de Granada (Dr. Jorge Castro, Dr. Regino Zamora);-the Direction of the Natural and National Parks of Sierra Nevada;- the Consejería de Medio Ambiente of Granada (Junta de Andalucía);-Empresa de Gestión Medio AmbientalS.A. (EGMASA);- USGS.

Fuego, Sierra Nevada, septiembre 2005

Post-fire experimental treatments:

- salvage cut + chip ESL

- partial cut, leave branches PCL

- control, non-intervention NI

Post-fire experimental treatments:

Post-fire experimental treatments:

Initial results:

Better tree regeneration (P. pinaster), higher biodiversity (e.g., plants, birds), in partial cutting with coarse slash left, or no intervention.

Lots of useful climate change adaptation resources online, for example:

Natural Resources Canada:http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/synth/adapt_e.php

USFS Climate Change Resource Center website:http://www.fs.fed.us/ccrc/

Nosotros necesitamos arreglarlo…

Think Globally,

Act Locally --

TogetherTogether…

There’s no place like home…

While everyone is a citizen of the Earth, we all call a local landscape “home”.

Our shared home landscapes are the best place to engage students and the public, and are essential places to learn and work together to address the challenges of climate change.

Gracias !

We can and must learn together through science and adaptive resource management – MNDDB’s !!!

White dots indicate documented localities with increased forest mortality related to climatic stress from drought and high temperatures. Background map shows potential limits to vegetation net primary production (Boisvenue and Running 2006).

Allen et al – in review