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A Case of Kaligandaki Basin, Nepal Rishikesh Pandey Douglas K Bardsley UoA, School of Social Sciences, GEP 5005 SA Australia Email: [email protected] 1
A Case of Kaligandaki Basin, Nepal
Rishikesh Pandey Douglas K Bardsley
UoA, School of Social Sciences, GEP 5005 SA Australia
Email: [email protected] 1
Presentation Outline Study Context
Human Ecology, Climate Change and Impacts, Adaptation Strategies and Barriers, and Livelihood
Outcomes and Vulnerability
Research Problem
Objectives
Study Rationale
Theoretical Framework
Methodology Study Area, methods, sample size, analysis
Results
Discussions Conclusion 2
Study Context
Human Ecology, Climate Change and Impacts, Adaptation Strategies and Barriers, and Livelihood Outcomes and Vulnerability
3
Study Context …
• Higher warming trend and projections, Variability in rainfall and increased erratic rainfall events, rapid retreat of glacier (Agrawala et al 2003; IPCC 2007a; Manandhar et al. 2011; NRC 2012; Pandey & Bardsley 2013; Schewe et al. 2011; Shrestha et al. 1999; Shrestha et al. 2000; Xu et al. 2007; Xu et al. 2009)
• Risk and hazards of snow - avalanche and Glacial Lack Outburst Flooding, monsoon flooding, making densely populated downstream vulnerable
• Extinction of agro-biodiversity, tropical crops and vector borne diseases at higher altitude (Malla 2008; LFP 2009)
• Resource degradation (Gentle & Marasani 2012)
• CC induced migration (Bardsley & Hugo, 2010)
4
5
Snow avalanche flood in Seti River (05/05/2012), market centre swept away, 70 people died
Monsoon flood in Tarai
Highly erosive Trans-Himalayan Landscape
Study Context …
Research Problem
• Adaptation studies are just emerging in Nepalese context, barriers are yet to explore
• Studies yet to cover heterogeneous Himalayan environment through location specific studies
• Lack of integrated studies: Human / Social- Ecological Implications (climate change, impacts, adaptation, barriers to adaptation, livelihood outcomes)
6
Objectives
To explore the adaptation strategies adopted by farming households
To investigate adaptation barriers faced by the studied communities
7
Study Rationale
Severe impacts of CC in physical and anthropogenic environments, yet, there exists adaptation deficit
Many research findings and global development policies call for adaptation (IPCC 2001; IPCC 2007b; IPCC 2014; Leary et al. 2007; Kyoto Protocol 1997; Schneider 2009 ; UNFCCC 1992)
Adaptation is required to respond the change and reduce the impacts
Local adaptation knowledge, interest, and efforts helps effective adaptation (Adger 2006; O’Neill & Hulme 2009)
Knowledge of adaptation barriers provides opportunity for policy response that weakens the barriers and promotes adaptation
8
Figure 1: Theoretical Framework on Adaption to Climate Change and Social Ecological Sustainability
Endogenous Factors
• Socio-economic and Political Institutions
•Technology
(+)
Adaptive Capacity
(-)
Social Ecological Sustainability
Social Ecological Vulnerability
Exogenous Factors (Climate Change)
E x p o s u r e
S e n s i t i v i t y
Livelihood Systems
Human
Natural
Financial Physical
Social
Response
Drivers
Pressures
State of Changes Impact
Modified from Allen Consulting Group 2005; Atkins et al. 2011; Chambers & Conway 1992; Subedi 1995
Theoretical Framework ...
9
10
Methodology : Study Area
Methodology: Sample Size
11
Face-to-face interview with household heads
Places Female Male Total
Number % Number % Number % Meghauli 47 30.7 106 69.3 153 42.5 Lumle 40 28.4 101 71.6 141 39.2
Mustang 19 28.8 47 71.2 66 18.3
Total 106 29.4 254 70.6 360 100
Guttman Scale and Score: peoples’ perceptions on climate changes, its impacts, adoption of adaptation strategies, and faced adaptation barriers were collected in unipolar scale of 1 (least) to 5 (most). These scales are treated as Guttmann scores later and calculated the proportion of general agreement
12
Place FGDs KIIs HTCs Crop Calendar Female Mixed Total Female Male Total
Meghauli 2 7 9 7 26 33 2 4 Lumle 3 6 9 7 13 20 3 2 Mustang 2 4 6 7 15 22 2 3 Total 7 17 24 21 54 75 7 9
• PRA Field methods • Focus group discussions • Key Informants Interview • Historical Timeline Calendar • Crop Calendar
Methodology: Sample Size
• A total of 31 adaptation strategies were asked, • A total of 9 adaptation barriers were asked
13
Adaptation to climate change
Several adaptation methods to climate change are proposed, and many of them are already practiced by the communities of the different parts of the world (Adger et al. 2007; Adger et al. 2005; Allison et al. 2009; Dovers 2009; Gargi & Sejuti 2010; Hanak & Lund 2012; Kurukulasuriya & Rosenthal 2003; McIntosh et al. 2000; Moser & Ekstrom 2010; Mortimore 2010; Osbahr et al. 2008; Sivakumar 2011; Smit et al. 2000; Thomas et al. 2007; Yufang et al. 2012).
Suggested strategies from the literature are: farm management, infrastructural development, diversification and intensification of crop-livestock production system, landuse change, increase irrigation other inputs, crop-livestock insurance; change pricing policy and agricultural support policies, development and promotion of new crop varieties, livestock feeds, soil management, improve animal health, regulated distribution system, disaster management, and technological advancement
24.9 21.1
14.4 17.1
11.7 14.8
34.3
29.0 32.4
26.6
9.9
15.3
36.4
18.4
32.0
19.6 22.1
27.5
17.5
33.4
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0Ch
ange
d Cro
p Var
ieties
Adop
ted D
roug
ht Re
sistan
t Cro
psCh
ange
in C
rop C
alend
arCh
ange
d Cro
pping
Patt
ern
Use o
f Mulc
h, Re
duce
d Tilla
geSo
il Con
trol, D
raina
ge M
anag
emen
tCh
ange
d Far
m Si
zeCh
ange
d Lan
duse
Typ
eSl
ope T
rans
forma
tion
Incre
ased
Irrig
ation
Regu
lated
Use
of W
ater
Rain
Wate
r Har
vest
Agro
-Tra
ining
, Edu
cated
Mem
ber
Incre
ased
Agr
o-Inp
utSp
ecial
ized L
ivesto
ckCh
ange
d Live
stock
Typ
es an
d Size
Chan
ged S
ource
of F
odde
rRe
gulat
ed U
se of
For
est a
nd P
astur
e
Adde
d Hea
ting/C
oolin
g Fac
ilities
Chan
ged H
ouse
Stru
cture
Pray
to G
odInt
egra
ted A
gricu
lture
Crop
-Live
stock
Insu
ranc
eAd
voca
cy an
d Cam
paign
Rece
ived F
ood A
id /S
ubsid
ized p
rice
Chan
ged L
ivelih
ood O
ption
sMi
grati
on fo
r Agr
o-Ac
tivity
Migr
ation
to M
arke
t Cen
treMi
grati
on to
City
Labo
ur M
igrati
on A
broa
d
CroppingSystem
FarmlandManagement
Irrigation, FarmSkills and Inputs
LivestockManagement
ComfortableLiving
Multi-Functionalities Migration
Prop
ortio
n of
Gen
eral
Agre
emen
t of A
dopt
ion
Figure 2: Proportions of General Agreement of Adoption of Strategies in Kaligandaki Basin, Nepal
Findings: Adopted Adaptation Strategies
14
Findings: Adopted Adaptation Strategies …
43.5
35.3
15.6
51.3
62.3
31.8
65.1
32.3 31.0 29.6 26.1
34.1
21.0
41.7
17.4
31.1
41.7
59.1
29.9
0.05.0
10.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.050.055.060.065.070.0
Chan
ged C
rop V
ariet
ies
Adop
ted D
roug
ht Re
sistan
t Cro
ps
Chan
ge in
Cro
p Cale
ndar
Chan
ged C
ropp
ing P
atter
n
Use o
f Mulc
h, Re
duce
d Tilla
ge
Soil C
ontro
l, Dra
inage
Man
agem
ent
Chan
ged F
arm
Size
Chan
ged L
andu
se T
ype
Slop
e Tra
nsfor
matio
n
Incre
ased
Irrig
ation
Regu
lated
Use
of W
ater
Rain
Wate
r Har
vest
Agro
-Tra
ining
, Edu
cated
Mem
ber
Incre
ased
Agr
o-Inp
ut
Spec
ialize
d Live
stock
Chan
ged L
ivesto
ck T
ypes
and S
ize
Chan
ged S
ource
of F
odde
r
Regu
lated
Use
of F
ores
t and
Pas
ture
Affor
estat
ion, G
rass
See
dling
, Fod
der T
rees
Plan
tation
Adde
d Hea
ting/C
oolin
g Fac
ilities
Chan
ged H
ouse
Stru
cture
Pray
to G
od
Integ
rated
Agr
icultu
re
Crop
-Live
stock
Insu
ranc
e
Advo
cacy
and C
ampa
ign
Rece
ived F
ood A
id /S
ubsid
ized p
rice
Chan
ged L
ivelih
ood O
ption
s
Migr
ation
for A
gro-
Activ
ity
Migr
ation
to M
arke
t Cen
tre
Migr
ation
to C
ity
Labo
ur M
igrati
on A
broa
d
Cropping System Farmland Management Irrigation, Farm Skillsand Inputs
Livestock Management ComfortableLiving
Multi-Functionalities Migration
Inte
nsity
Sco
re o
f Ado
ptio
n (%
) Figure 3: Proportions of General Agreement of Adoption of Strategies in Kaligandaki Basin, Nepal
by types and Ecological Zones
TaraiMiddle-MountainTrans Himalaya
15
Findings: Adopted Adaptation Strategies …
16
Figure 4: Levels of Overall Adaptation
23.0 20.4
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Overall Adaptation (Perceived byRespondent)
Overall Adaptation (Average of All AdoptedStrategies)
Perc
ent
Strategies
Not Adapted at All Little Bit Adapted Moderately AdaptedWell Adapted Quite Well Adapted % of General Agreement
Source: Field Survey, 2013
Findings: Adopted Adaptation Strategies …
29.5 23.2
7.7
24.1 17.6 17.7
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
Tarai Middle-Mountain Trans Himalaya Tarai Middle-Mountain Trans Himalaya
Overall Adaptation (Perceived by Respondent) Overall Adaptation (Average of All Adopted Strategies)
Perc
ent
Not Adapted at All Little Bit Adapted Moderately AdaptedWell Adapted Quite Well Adapted % of General Agreement
Source: Field Survey, 2013
17
Figure 5: Level of Adoption of Various Strategies by Ecological Zones
Findings: Adopted Adaptation Strategies …
Figure 6: Crop Calendar across the ecological zones of Kaligandaki basin
18
Flood Control through Concrete wall in the Trans-Himalaya
Flood Control Dikes and Retaining Wall along the Narayani River at Meghauli
Findings: Adopted Adaptation Strategies …
19
Findings: Adaptation Barriers
54.6 46.3 45.8
23.9
88.3 85.2 72.6 74.2 75.3
0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0
Perc
ent o
f Res
pond
ents
Barriers
Little bit Occasionally Moderately Severe Profound General Agreement
Figure 7: Adaptation Barriers Faced by the Studied Households of Kaligandaki Basin, Nepal
20
46.6
66.3
48.9 37.4
59.7
39.7
52.3 44.1
34.1 24.4 22.9 24.9
88.8 88.3 87.1 88.0 82.3 84.9
64.0 75.6
86.2
64.8
79.5 84.9
65.2
81.5 85.5
0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0
100.0
Tara
i
Mid
dle-
Mou
ntai
n
Tran
s-H
imal
aya
Tara
i
Mid
dle-
Mou
ntai
n
Tran
s-H
imal
aya
Tara
i
Mid
dle-
Mou
ntai
n
Tran
s-H
imal
aya
Tara
i
Mid
dle-
Mou
ntai
n
Tran
s-H
imal
aya
Tara
i
Mid
dle-
Mou
ntai
n
Tran
s-H
imal
aya
Tara
i
Mid
dle-
Mou
ntai
n
Tran
s-H
imal
aya
Tara
i
Mid
dle-
Mou
ntai
n
Tran
s-H
imal
aya
Tara
i
Mid
dle-
Mou
ntai
n
Tran
s-H
imal
aya
Tara
i
Mid
dle-
Mou
ntai
n
Tran
s-H
imal
aya
Lack ofAdaptable
Variety
Not SuitableCrop
Varieties
Lack ofIrrigation
ResourceConflict
Lack of Shortand
LongtermWeather
Forecast (InPercent)
InsufficientKnowledge
onAdaptationMethod (In
Percent)
FinancialLimitations
Lack ofExternalSupport(I/NGO,
DevelopmentAgencies)
Lack ofExternal
Support /Government
Perc
ent o
f Res
pond
ents
Barriers
Little bit
Occasionally
Moderately
Severe
Profound
General Agreement
Figure 8: Adaptation Barriers Faced by the Studied Households Across the Ecological Zones Kaligandaki Basin, Nepal
Findings: Adaptation Barriers
21
Poor level of adaptation however, rich adaptation knowledge; consistent to the strategies suggested by literature
Lack of social learning and knowledge transfer, Study agrees to: Adaptation process is determined by - technology,
resource availability and distribution, institutional structure, stock of human and social capital, access to risk spreading mechanism, ability of decision makers on risk management and peoples’ attribution to stress or exposure to the change, willingness to innovate (Grothmann & Patt 2005; Gupta et al. 2010; Hansen et al. 2004; Moser 2005; O’Brien et al. 2004; Yohe & Tol 2002)
Study agrees to: Having sound adaptive capacity not necessarily translated into adaptation action since people feel powerless and are constrained by antecedent development (Adger et al. 2007; Adger & Vincent 2005; van Aalst et al. 2008)
Communities are undecided to adopt adaptation strategies because CC they perceived is non-linear, and existing barriers challenge the outcome of adaptation strategies
Discussion and Conclusion
22
Thank You
Queries ?? 23
Acknowledgements I would like to acknowledge to the University of Adelaide, School of Social Sciences, Discipline of Geography, Environment and Population for making this presentation possible at this conference.
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