A geospatial approach to analyzing real estate values - Case Study: King's Cross Saint Pancras

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1837 LOFT STREET, ANYTOWN, NY 50080

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Land Information Council of Jamaica/

National Spatial Data Management Division

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A geospatial approach to analyzing real estate

values - Case Study: King’s Cross Saint Pancras TOD

GIS Business Executive Forum 2014 Enhancing the Local Real Estate Industry using GIS

Tarik Dixon

14|11| 2014

GIS Analyst


Land Information Council of Jamaica

GIS & Real Estate

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Eights years experience in the real estate industry (London & Jamaica)

Eights years experience in GIS sector

A member of the National Association of Realtors (NAR)

Top Producer (2012 & 2013) at Century 21 Heave-Ho Properties

Licentiate member of the Royal Town Planning Institute (RTPI)

Licentiate of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS)

MSc. Spatial Planning

BSc. Urban and Regional Planning

Pursuing GISP certification

2

Profile

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Section No. Slide Name Slide No.

1. Geographic Information System (GIS) & Related Technologies 4-6

2.GIS & Real Estate

5-9

3.Case Study: King’s Cross Saint Pancras TOD

10-18

Session Objectives

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Definition of Terms

Geographic Information System (GIS): is a system of hardware, software,

data, people, organizations and institutional arrangements for the collecting, storing,

analysing and disseminating information about areas of the earth .(Duiker and Kjerne

1989)

Public Transport Accessibility Levels (PTALs): are measures of the

accessibility of specific location to public transport network (comprising bus, rail, light rail

and tube services. (URS Corporation Limited and Taylor, 2006)

Transit Oriented Development (TOD): is a development strategy, which

typically involves creating medium/high density areas of mixed land use concentrated a

within 800 metre walking distance of significant transit stops. (Curtis, 2012)

4

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How GIS Works

List of Fundamentals

5

Hypsography

Land Use

Cadastral

Transportation

Governmental Units

Geodetic Control

Geographic Names

Hydrography

Ortho-imagery

Source: Kate Lance March 2004

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National Spatial Data Management Division6

Location!

GIS

Real Estate

GIS & Real Estate

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GIS & Real Estate

7

GIS - is a technology which allows you to

represent real world features within a

computer based environment

Real World

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Why do we need to marry GIS and Real Estate?

Climate Change

Land topography

Hazards (eg: Earthquakes, Hurricanes, Tsunamis)

Creative Class

Knowledge Economy

Smart Cities

Urbanization

Migration

Population

8

Natural FactorsSocio-economic Factors

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Factors Affecting Property Values

Location

Accessibility

Amenities

Natural Geography

Others - keeping up with the Joneses

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GIS can help us:

Determine land Value Uplift from public investments

Identify & help unlock land values embedded within urban Brownfield lands

Analyze the inextricable linkage between urban structure and mobility (Source: CfIT)

Delivery sustainability by paradigm shift from land use planning to spatial planning (Hall, 1992)

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Research Topic

A spatio-temporal analysis on the effects of Transit Oriented Developments (TODs) on

existing residential property values – A case study of the King’s Cross St Pancras

transit station catchment area

10

Using GIS to analyze property values in Cities

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1:150,000

Location of Study Area

Case Study: Property prices in the King’s Cross Saint Pancras TOD

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1. To examine the spatio-temporal fluctuations of property prices within

the King’s Cross St Pancras transit station catchment area and to

explore how these compare with other areas within the borough.

2. To determine whether a key event such as the opening of High Speed

One (HS1) and simultaneous transferral of international Eurostar

services from Waterloo to St Pancras station had a perceptible effect

on property prices.

3. To determine how a spatio-temporal analysis of property prices could

assist in developing spatial planning strategies to help achieve

sustainability within Camden.

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Research Objectives:

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King’s Cross Europe map railway connections

King’s Cross St Pancras:

– is the best connected location in Europe

– benefitted from £2.5 billion investment on

transport infrastructure alone

– has the highest PTAL ratings (PTAL 6B)

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(Source: King’s Cross, 2014)

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Housing Price Index: Price Paid DataData Item Explanation where appropriate

Transaction unique identifier A reference number which is generated automatically recording each published sale. The number is uniqueand will change each time a sale is recorded.

Price Sale price stated on the Transfer deed.

Date of Transfer Date when the sale was completed, as stated on the Transfer deed.

Postcode

Property Type D-Detached S-Semi-Detached T-Terraced F-Flats/Maisonettes

Old/New Y = a newly built property N = an established residential building

Duration Relates to the tenure.F-FreeholdL-Leasehold etc.

PAON Primary Addressable Object Name. If there is a sub-building for example the building is divided into flats, seeSecondary Addressable Object Name (SAON).

SAON Secondary Addressable Object Name. If there is a sub-building, for example the building is divided into flats,there will be a SAON.

Street

Locality

Town/City

District

County

Record Status - monthly file only Indicates additions, changes and deletions to the records (please see guide below).

What do the abbreviations mean in the price paid data?The data is published in columns in the order set out below:The date field - the date of the Transfer deed lodged with us for registration.- See more at: http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/market-trend-data/public-data/price-paid-faq#m1

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Housing Price Index 10yr Analysis

Created from Land Registry’s (2014) Housing Price Index

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• Property prices increased within the study area 4.92% above

London average, despite 51.44% more properties being sold

after transport intervention.

• Flats/Maisonettes were the dominant property type within study

area and the borough but minimum property prices increased by

approx 46.27% in the former and only 3.87% in the latter.

• Maximum price for flats/maisonettes in the study area went up by

almost 238.24% and only 75% in the borough.

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Key Research Findings

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Building Stock

COHORTS # OF TRANSACTIONS

PROPERTY TYPE

DetachedSemi

Detached TerraceFlats/

MaisonettesCOHORT ONE[13/11/2002

-13/11/2007]

18,265 242 666 1,854 15,503

COHORT TWO

[14/11/2007 -

14/11/2012]

12,061 207 440 1316 10,098

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Price Distribution

1:31,000

Old Flats or maisonettes sold in Camden 5 years before HS1 Old flats or maisonettes sold in Camden within 5 year of HS1 opening

1:31,000

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1:31,000

Price Density

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1:31,000

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Price Density within TODs

2006 2007 2008

20082006 2007

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Transit-Oriented Development (TOD)

ESRI (2013) -

http://youtu.be/YfhTCDOAueI?t=1m35s

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http://youtu.be/YfhTCDOAueI?t=1m35s

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Commission for Integrated Transport (CfIT), Planning 4 Sustainable Travel, available from:

http://www.plan4sustainabletravel.org/ [Accessed: June 24th 2014].

Hall, P. (1992), Urban and Regional Planning 3rd Edition, London: Routledge.

Hickman, R., Seaborn, C., Headicar, P. and Banister, D. (2009), Planninng for Sustainable Travel:

Integrating Spatial Planning and Transport, available from:

http://abstracts.aetransport.org/paper/download/id/3300, [Accessed: August 12th 2014].

King’s Cross (2014), Transport Links: International Rail, National Rail, Underground, Air, Bus, Bike

available from: http://www.kingscross.co.uk/transport, [Accessed: August 17th 2014].

Land Registry, Price paid data download options, available from: http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/market-

trend-data/public-data/price-paid-data/download, [Accessed: June 27th 2014].

Transport for London (TfL) (2010), Measuring Public Transport Accessibility Levels, available from:

http://data.london.gov.uk/documents/PTAL-methodology.pdf, [Accessed: August 10th 2014].

World Health Organization (WHO), Global Health Observatory (GHO), available from

http://www.who.int/gho/urban_health/situation_trends/urban_population_growth_text/en/ [Accessed: June

06th 2014].

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Reference

http://www.plan4sustainabletravel.org/

http://abstracts.aetransport.org/paper/download/id/3300

http://www.kingscross.co.uk/transport

http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/market-trend-data/public-data/price-paid-data/download

http://data.london.gov.uk/documents/PTAL-methodology.pdf

http://www.who.int/gho/urban_health/situation_trends/urban_population_growth_text/en/

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Thank YouEmail: [email protected]

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