A Look at Our Local Community: Conducting an (brief) External Scan
PaRC Presentation
February 6, 2013
E. Kuo & T. Margesson Foothill IR&P
• Examination of external environment
– Population
– Education
– Labor
• Consider our local community in relation to who we are and might be serving
• Inform strategic planning
Overview
2
Population
Who makes up our local community?
3
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Santa Clara and San Mateo County Population Projections 2010-2060
Santa Clara County
San Mateo County
Projections by County
Source: CA Department of Finance, P-1 (Age)
Within our service area, population projected to increase between 3%-7% between 2010-2060.
Slide 1
Projected 23% increase in Santa Clara County over next 47 years.
29% increase for San Mateo County
Note: Foothill service area defined as Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Mountain View, Palo Alto, Sunnyvale.
4
Projections by Age
Source: CA Department of Finance, P-2 (Age)
15-24 yrs.25-34 yrs.35-44 yrs.
65+ yrs.10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Santa Clara Population Projections 2010-2060 by Age 15 and older
45-64
Slide 2
65+ will be largest proportion of county population after 2040
Accompanying decrease among those 45-64
5
19%
5%
78%
187%395%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
College Age (18-24)
Working Age (25-64)
Young Retirees (65-74)
Mature Retirees (75-84)
Seniors (85+)
Santa Clara County Population Projections 2010-2060by Age Group as a Percent Change
Projections by Age
Source: CA Department of Finance, P-1 (Age)
Slide 3
Greatest rate of change among 85+ Largest increase among 75-84 (+117,901) Among 18-24,
increase by almost 20%
6
Projections by Ethnicity
American Indian
Asian
Black
Hispanic
Multi-ethnic
White
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Santa Clara County Population Projections 2010-2060 by Ethnicity
Source: CA Department of Finance, P-2 (Age)
Slide 4
Decline in White population
Asian and Hispanic populations make up majority of county population (70%) by 2060
7
Projections by Gender
700,000
750,000
800,000
850,000
900,000
950,000
1,000,000
1,050,000
2012 2017 2022
Santa Clara County Population Projections 2012-2022by Gender
Over next 10 years, gender breakdown remain fairly constant at 50/50
Percentage increase between 2012-2022 by about 10% for men and women
Source: EMSI
Slide 5
8
Income
Source: US Census Fact Finder, 2011
Slide 6
$218,077
$151,856
$122,532
$93,292 $91,446
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
Los Altos Hills Los Altos Palo Alto Sunnyvale Mountain View
Foothill College Service Area 2011 Median Household Income
Santa Clara County median $89,064
9
Income by Ethnicity
Source: US Census Fact Finder
Slide 7
$104,343
$86,714 $85,511
$60,625 $57,643 $55,541
$-
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
Asian White Filipino/PI American Indian
Latino African American
Santa Clara County 2011 Median Household Income by Ethnicity
Santa Clara County median
$89,064
10
73%69%
54%61%
47%
27%31%
46%39%
53%
23% 23%
44%
31%
39%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Los Altos Los Altos Hills Mountain View Palo Alto Sunnyvale
Foothill Service Area Language Spoken at Home
Speak only English Speak a language other than English Speak English less than "very well"*
English Language Facility
Source: US Census Fact Finder, 2011
Slide 8
A higher percentage of people living Mountain View and Sunnyvale speaking another language at home.
11
Over one-third of people living in Mountain View and Sunnyvale who speak a language other than English at home also feel they don’t speak English very well.
Education
Attainment, Preparation, Attendance
12
30%
17%
7%
26%
20%
29%
19%
8%
27%
17%
40%
22%
8%
19%
11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
High school graduate/GED,
or less
Some college, no degree
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Graduate or Professional
degree
Highest Level of Education among Adults Aged 25+
Santa Clara County San Mateo County California
Educational Level by County
Source: US Census Fact Finder, 2011
Slide 9
Associate Degree completion comparable to state level
Both counties have highly educated residents (BA/BS+)
13
High School Graduation Projections
Source: CA Department of Education
Slide 10
16,913
16,913
17,103
17,284
17,385
18,453
18,334
18,695
19,272
19,217
5,868
5,885
5,638
5,750
5,850
6,145
6,042
6,200
6,513
6,639
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Projected High School Graduations by County 2012-2021
San MateoCounty
Santa Clara County
Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties HS graduations projected to increase at similar rate (13%)
14
78%71% 69%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Palo Alto Unif ied School District
Fremont Union High School District
MtnView/Los Altos School District
Foothill Service Area 2010 HS Graduates Completing UC/CSU Required Courses
Santa Clara County, 46%
California,37%
HS Graduates and College Prep
Source: CA Department of Education
Slide 11
Feeder high schools complete UC/CSU requirements at a higher rate compared to county and state.
Santa Clara 36% Sequoia HS 50%
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-1%
0%
8%
-9%
-4%
-12%
-4%-2%
-8%
1%
-8%
-12%
-4%
-10% -10%
-4%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Canada De Anza Evergreen Valley
Foothill Mission San Jose City
San Mateo
West Valley
Regional Community College Enrollment and FTES2010-11 and 2011-12
Enrollment FTES
Local Community Colleges
Source: CCCC0 Datamart
Slide 12
Regional institutions all experienced declines in enrollment and FTES
Evergreen experienced largest decline among these colleges in enrollment between 2009-10 to 2010-11 (-16%)
16
Labor Employers, Employment, Projections
17
Top Employers
Source: EMSI, Equifax Business List Data (2012, Q3) Companies that have recently had a credit check.
Slide 13
Santa Clara County Health Care, Technology
San Mateo County Government, Technology and Information, Financial
Santa Clara County San Mateo County
Rank Business Local Employee
Business Local Employee
1 Stanford Hospital & Clinics 4,935 Us Department Of The Interior 7,000
2 Santa Clara Valley Medical Center
4,513 Inovant Llc 1,500
3 Brocade Communications Systems, Inc.
2,500 Franklin Investment Advisory Services, Llc
1,500
4 Cypress Semiconductor Corporation
2,076 San Mateo County Offices Health Education
1,500
5 Varian Medical Systems Inc 2,068 Oracle America, Inc. 1,400
18
Employment by Sector
Source: EMSI
Slide 14
Services, 46%
Manufacturing, 17%
Retail Trade, 9%
Government, 8%
Information, 6%
Construction, 4%
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, 4%
Wholesale Trade, 4% Transportation/
Utilities, 1%
Agriculture/Mining, <0%
2012 Santa Clara County Job Percentage by Sector
Almost half of those employed in the county are employed in the service sector
Service sector includes professional, scientific and technical services; educational services; arts and entertainment; accommodation and food services; health care and social assistance.
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Santa Clara
San Mateo
California
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (Nov)
Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate
Source: BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics
Slide 15
Unemployment rate appears to be on a declining trend.
Both counties demonstrate unemployment trends lines that are lower compared to state levels.
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Fastest Growing Occupations for Santa Clara County 2012-2017
Description 2012 Jobs 2017 Jobs 5 Yr. % Change Education Level
Radio, Cellular, and Tower Equipment Installers and Repairs 45 73 62% Associate's degree
Film and Video Editors 105 141 34% Bachelor's degree
Personal Care Aides 4,872 6,346 30% Short-term on-the-job training
Reporters and Correspondents 270 347 29% Bachelor's degree
Extruding and Drawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and
Plastic 123 157 28% Moderate-term on-the-job
training
Medical Equipment Repairers 281 357 27% Associate's degree
Curators 53 66 25% Master's degree
Home Health Aides 4,100 5,074 24% Short-term on-the-job training
Helpers--Carpenters 161 198 23% Short-term on-the-job training
Archivists 130 158 22% Master's degree
5-Yr Projected Occupation Growth
Source: EMSI
Slide 16
Roughly half of the fastest growing occupations require some training or an Associate’s degree.
21
Fastest Growing Occupations for San Mateo County 2012-2017
Description 2012 Jobs 2017 Jobs 5 Yr. % Change Education Level
Chemical Equipment Operators and Tenders 72 125 74% Moderate-term on-the-job
training
Credit Authorizers, Checkers, and Clerks 50 75 50% Short-term on-the-job training
Agents and Business Managers of Artists, Performers, and Athletes 48 72 50%
Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work
experience
Helpers--Carpenters 59 87 47% Short-term on-the-job training
Tile and Marble Setters 167 242 45% Long-term on-the-job training
Mechanical Door Repairers 66 93 41% Moderate-term on-the-job training
Structural Metal Fabricators and Fitters 54 75 39% Moderate-term on-the-job training
Separating, Filtering, Clarifying, Precipitating, and Still Machine Setters,
Operators, and Tenders 75 104 39% Moderate-term on-the-job
training
Extruding, Forming, Pressing, and Compacting Machine Setters, Operators,
and Tenders 47 65 38% Moderate-term on-the-job
training
Environmental Engineering Technicians 16 21 31% Associate's degree
5-Yr Projected Occupation Growth
Source: EMSI
Slide 17
Almost all of the fastest growing occupations require training.
22
23
10-Yr Projected High Demand Occupations
Source: EMSI Slide 18
High demand means there is a projected gap between the number of people with the education and skills who qualify for anticipated job openings.
10 High Demand Occupations for Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties 2012-2022
Occupation Education Level
First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers Work experience in a related occupation
Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists Bachelor's degree
Computer Systems Analysts Bachelor's degree
General and Operations Managers Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience
Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers Short-term on-the-job training
Carpenters Long-term on-the-job training
First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers Work experience in a related occupation
Teacher Assistants Short-term on-the-job training
Maintenance and Repair Workers, General Moderate-term on-the-job training
Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers Moderate-term on-the-job training
Projected Program Demand
Source: EMSI
Slide 19
Top 10 Foothill Program Demand based on Projected Job Growth 2011-2022 In Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties
Rank Program Regional Openings
Institution Completions
Regional Completions
Jobs Growth (2011-2022) Gap
1 Computer Science 6,095 7 569 29% 5,526
2 Computer Programming/Programmer, General 5,125 9 43 30% 5,082
3 Computer and Information Sciences, General 3,077 5 13 27% 3,064
4 Computer Systems Networking and Telecommunications 2,356 8 23 30% 2,333
5 International Business/Trade/Commerce 1,228 4 4 6% 1,224
6 Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science, General 1,162 1 50 12% 1,112
7 Accounting Technology/Technician and Bookkeeping 1,241 37 299 17% 942
8 Electrician 909 3 147 19% 762
9 Mass Communication/Media Studies 460 2 25 30% 435
10 Health and Physical Education/Fitness, General 531 6 166 28% 365
Total 22,184 82 1,339
Largest number of openings based on 2011 completion rates are primarily in computer industries
But also occupations related to communication and health and fitness programs
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These are programs currently offered at Foothill.
• Population – Continued increase over next 45 years – Increase in college-age population group
• Education – Highly educated population
• Labor – Decrease in unemployment – Projections suggest need for training – Computer technology/information opportunities
continue to increase
Summary
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• Use with Foothill student data
• Encourage discussion about who we are serving and who we might serve
• Serve as resource for mission revisit and for educational strategic master plan (ESMP)
• Questions?
• Feedback?
Next Steps
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