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A Micro-Level Analysis of Violent Conflict Synthesis and Reflections
Patricia JustinoDirector, MICROCON IDS, 30 June 2011www.microconflict.eu
Twitter: @microconflict#microconflict
Key lessons
Ordinary people matter People are more than victims: the importance of agency People build resilience in the face of conflict
It is about understanding the conflict Length and structure of conflict Nature of violence Institutional change
Agency and resilience shape conflict processes and outcomes
MICROCON
Main purpose
Advance the field of conflict analysis through micro level approach
understand individual and group interactions leading to and resulting from violent conflicts (full conflict cycle)
violent conflicts: systematic breakdown of the social contract resulting from and/or leading to changes in social norms, which involve mass violence instigated through collective action
Better informed domestic, regional and international conflict policy – placing individuals and groups at the centre of interventions
MICROCON Consortium
Rest of the WorldCanada: University of British Columbia
South Africa: University of Cape Town
Colombia: Universidad de Los Andes
India: Institute for Human Development
Uganda: Makerere University
Kyrgyzstan: Centre for Economic and Social Research
United States: Tufts UniversityYale University
EuropeBelgium: Centre for European Policy StudiesUniversité Catholique du LouvainGhent UniversityFree University of Brussels (VUB)
Norway: Fafo Institute for Applied International Studies
Bulgaria: International Collaboration Institute Affiliated to the German Public Universities Association – Sofia Branch
Portugal: University Nova of Lisboa
France:University of Rouen
Romania: Institute of Agricultural Economics
Germany: German Institute for Economic ResearchUnited Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security
Spain: University of Alicante
Italy: Institute of International Affairs
UK: Institute of Development StudiesPoverty Research Unit, SussexUniversity of Oxford
The Netherlands: Institute of Social Studies
Evidence and data
New Data Existing Data
Facts and motivations Until recently conflict and violence not mainstreamed in development policy
Concern with state security and state capacity
What about the people? 1.5 billion people affected by conflict and violence One third of those living in extreme poverty Over 1/2 of all child mortality in the world Over 40% of all out of school children No conflict-affected country will achieve the MDGs
Limited knowledge and evidence of how people live in contexts of violent conflict
Knowledge gaps
At a fundamental level, conflict originates from people’s behaviourand how they interact with society and their environment
Who are the people affected by violent conflict? How do they live? What do they do to secure lives and livelihoods? What options do they have?
What choices do they make? Why are they get affected by violence? In what way? How does violence
change options and choices? Are they part of the conflict? What led them into it?
What have we learned?
Framework
Ordinary people matter
Important macro causes of violent conflict military, financial, technological, ideological beliefs, mobilisation capacity,
strength of state presence
Processes of violent conflict also related to: what happens to people during violent conflicts what people do in areas of violence – adapt to secure lives and livelihoods
micro foundations of violent conflict
Adaptation affects conflict
Welfare effects: Direct: killings, injuries, disability, assets, displacement Indirect:
local institutions: markets, social relations, political institutions national economy: economic growth, distribution
But people adapt to survive take on available opportunities adapt forms of livelihoods to survival needs join in informal exchange and employment markets form social and political alliances negotiate with local actors
Adaptation shapes and is shaped by conflict outcomes and processes
It is about understanding the conflict
The conflict
People’s behaviour, choices, attitudes and preferences shape conflict processes on the ground Where to fight, with whom, for how long
Conflict is not a shock Lasts across generations and people adapt accordingly
Long-term legacies Some negative; some positive Conflict alters people’s behaviour, choices, attitudes and preferences
Transformation and change; not short-term effects
The violence
Contexts where conflict managed through violent means
People’s behaviour, choices, attitudes and preferences enable (or constrain) strategic use of violence
Beyond destruction: violence used to force transformation some of it may create more certain and secure environments
Interactions between types of violence:
violent riots, organised crime, communal violence, domestic violence armed fighting
Institutional transformation
People resort to local institutions to protect economic status and lives
Policy focus on the importance of building institutions – but what institutions and how?
Focus still on solving violent conflict through peace agreements between selected leaders, followed by the panacea of DDR, SSR, elections
What about the mechanisms that govern the effective implementation of
these policies on the ground?
Social interactions and local governance structures
Social interactions
Social norms of trust and cooperation Development and peace-building focus on community-level Support new investments (physical and human capital) DDR and reconstruction programmes?
Forms of social organisation Management of property rights Dispute resolution over land and common resources Distribution of public goods and common resources Regulation of access to public goods, basic services and markets
Local governance
Close link between violent conflict and the absence of the state
Absence of state does not mean absence of governance – local order determined by who holds the gun
These institutions can be persistent and efficient – provision of basic sense of security
Long term process: no short answers to peace and state-building change behaviour, norms and organisations
From research to policy
How to improve conflict policy
Defusing mechanisms: entry points to break long-term negative legacies and build on positive changes
This allows:
Development policies: incentives to halt use of violence as strategy to influence allocation of power
Institution building: what institutions and how?
Defusing mechanisms Key channels linking interventions and outcomes
Exercise of agency in conflict settings (not always positive) Structure of the conflict Close links between people and conflict processes
Which entry points?
Development: focus on supporting resilience It is not enough to just look at the ‘poor’; vulnerable to violence Violence and conflict as constant factors in people’s lives Vulnerability is everywhere; not just among those that we can see
Institutions: engagement with new/emerging power structures New development actors? From ordinary people to non-state armed actors
Development policies Current international policy: (our) security as major goal; development aid as means to
support stability
Beyond ‘hearts and minds’: (re)establish social contract (broken or contested, sometimes for good reasons) It is about helping to provide opportunities and equality
Development should be priority in itself Security is priority for people but for whom, how and what the trade-offs Health, education and economic security beyond emergency aid If states does not provide then someone else will
Not just aid: building structures and guaranteeing equitable access to them Humanitarian aid useful but limited to short-term intervention
Building institutions
Need to get institutions right: Which institutions? How?
More attention paid to the other side of the story – what do we do about the institutions that emerge from conflict? Violence instrumental role beyond destruction Emergence of social and political order
Implications: Explaining why conflict persists, mutates, and how peace may emerge Survival and security of ordinary people Negotiate with, engage and understand complex distributions of power within
populations in conflict-affected contexts
Looking ahead
Ongoing/Recent Conflicts
Recent Revolts / Major Protests
Recent Internal Conflicts / Uprisings
Ongoing Internal Conflicts
Intergroup Violence
Drug Related / Gang Violence