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1 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR A Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure Approach to Assessment of Frequency of In-Vessel Steam Generator Tube Rupture Accident in SMRs Mohammad Modarres Professor of Nuclear Engineering Center for Risk and Reliability Department of Mechanical Engineering University of Maryland College Park PRESENTED AT THE NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING MIT OCTOBER 17, 2011 Copyright 2012 by M. Modarres
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1 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

A Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure Approach to Assessment of Frequency of In-Vessel Steam Generator Tube Rupture

Accident in SMRs Mohammad Modarres

Professor of Nuclear Engineering Center for Risk and Reliability

Department of Mechanical Engineering University of Maryland College Park

PRESENTED AT THE NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING

MIT OCTOBER 17, 2011

Copyright 2012 by M. Modarres

2 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Topics Covered

• SMR Steam Generator: Overview • Issues Related to SGTR Frequency of SMRs • Overview of the Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure

Approach Used • Application Example and Results • Conclusions

3 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Acknowledgements

• The work is part of the PhD research of one my current students: Mr. Kaushik Chaterjee

• The SG example shown is a scaled version of the actual SGs used

• Collaborative efforts with NuScale Power and input from NuScale Power, Inc. is greatly appreciated

• Crack growth rate data and Alloy 690 samples were provided by Dr. Bill Shack and Dr. Bogdan Alexandreanu of Argonne National Laboratory

4 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

NuScale Reactor • Natural Convection for

Cooling

– Inherently safe natural circulation of water over the fuel driven by gravity

– No pumps, no need for emergency generators

• Simple and Small

– Reactor is 1/20th the size of large reactors

– Integrated reactor design, no large-LOCAs

Courtesy of NuScale Power, Inc.

5 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Decay Heat Removal System Using Steam Generators

• Two independent single-failure-proof trains

• Closed loop system • Two-phase natural circulation

operation • DHRS heat exchangers

nominally full of water • Primary coolant natural

circulation is maintained • Pool provides a 3 day cooling

supply for decay heat removal

Courtesy of NuScale Power, Inc.

6 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Decay heat removal using the containment • Provides a means of removing core decay

heat and limits containment pressure by: – Steam Condensation – Convective Heat Transfer – Heat Conduction – Sump Recirculation

• Reactor Vessel steam is vented through the reactor vent valves (flow limiter)

• Steam condenses on containment • Condensate collects in lower containment

region • Reactor Recirculation Valves open to

provide recirculation path through the core • Provides +30 day cooling followed by

indefinite period of air cooling.

Courtesy of NuScale Power, Inc.

7 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Stable Long Term Cooling Reactor and nuclear fuel cooled indefinitely without pumps or power

WATER COOLING BOILING AIR COOLING

Courtesy of NuScale Power, Inc.

8 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR) • SGTR one of the most significant safety issues in PWRs.

– Leads to loss of primary coolant inventory, primary side de-pressurization and potential reactor core meltdown.

– Bypasses the plant’s containment structure, resulting in direct release of radioactivity into atmosphere.

• Frequency of SGTR in required in Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) of PWRs.

• There have been 10 large scale SGTR occurrences in US between 1975 and 2000.

• Several other reported cases of SG tube leakages and low scale ruptures (100,000 plugging as per US NRC).

An example of SGTR event (US NRC, LER, 1990): – SGTR event occurred at McGuire Unit 1 PWR near Charlotte, NC on March 7, 1989. – Cause of this SGTR was stress corrosion cracking under normal operating conditions.

(IAEA, 2007)

9 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Estimation of SGTR Frequency • Historical SGTR data

– Different SG geometry environmental and operating conditions. – Non-homogeneous historical data are combined.

• Example (NUREG-1829, 2005/ NUREG-5750, 1999): – SGTR data from a database for a 15-year time period between 1987 and 2002 were

queried. – 4 SGTR events that had leak rates greater than 100 GPM were identified.

Power plant Year Degradation

mechanism Tube

Material

Cumulative PWR reactor years of

operation (15 yrs)

SGTR frequency/

yr

North Anna, VA 1987 Fatigue Alloy 600

1133 ≈4x 10-3

McGuire, NC 1989 Stress corrosion cracking Alloy 600

Palo Verde, AZ 1993 Stress corrosion cracking Alloy 600

Indian Point, NY 2000 Stress corrosion cracking Alloy 600

10 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Estimation of SGTR Frequency Large Scale PWRs vs. SMRs

Some SMR Designs: • Helical shaped tubes • Advanced tube material resistant to

corrosion • Compressive stresses • Negligible risk from stress corrosion

cracking

Large scale PWRs designs: • U shaped or straight tubes • Tubes subjected to tensile stresses • Tube material susceptible to

corrosion • Stress corrosion cracking is the

primary degradation mechanism

Historical data-based SGTR frequency • Based on non-homogeneous data • Not reactor specific

–Actual reactor operating (boundary) conditions not taken into account

–Tube material properties or geometry not taken into account

Chatterjee, K. and Modarres, M., “A probabilistic physics-of-failure approach to prediction of steam generator tube rupture frequency”, Nuclear Science and Engineering, Volume 170, Issue 2, 2012.

11 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

PPoF Estimation of SGTR Frequency Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure (PPoF) is a structured mechanistic-based

approach with consideration of uncertainties. – Why mechanistic?

• Considers underlying degradation and processes that lead to failure. – Why probabilistic?

• Considers uncertainties associated with unknown or partially known factors such as material properties, manufacturing methods, model uncertainties, and measurement errors.

Research objective: – Develop a PPoF-based approach to SGTR frequency prediction.

– Develop mechanistic models of applicable primary failure mechanisms under normal operating conditions.

– Develop a Bayesian approach to estimate and characterize the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties.

– Develop an approach to estimate the stress agents acting on tubes. – Develop a probabilistic reliability simulation and prediction approach.

12 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

PPoF-Based Approach for SGTR Frequency Prediction

Identify SG tube geometry and material properties

Identify underlying operating conditions

Identify probable degradation mechanisms

Formulate mechanistic models

Estimate SGTR frequency through MATLAB simulation

Experimental degradation data

Initial flaw severity

Characterize epistemic and aleatory uncertainties

Assess stress agents

Identify underlying degradation conditions

Finite element analysis

13 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

SG Tube Primary Failure Mechanisms

• Alloy 690 (higher corrosion resistance) used in modern steam generators. • Risk of tube failure from SCC and pitting corrosion considerably reduced*. • Susceptible to failure mechanisms: fatigue and fretting wear caused by flow-induced

tube vibration.

SGTR

Fatigue

Fretting wear Pitting corrosion

Stress corrosion cracking

*Berge, P. et al., “Materials requirements for pressurized water reactor steam generator tubing”, Nuclear Technology, Vol. 55, October 1981.

14 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Probabilistic Fatigue Model

Random Variables Estimation Process

c Bayesian regression

p Bayesian regression

ai Literature data

ΔS Finite element analysis

da / dN = crack growth rate; DK = stress intensity factor range; R = stress ratio;a f = final crack size; c & p = model parameters; Y = crack geometry factor; tm = mean life of steam generator; a i = initial crack size; DS= stress range for the applied loading

),0()()82.01( 2.2 pKRcdNda

15 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Uncertainty Characterization of Fatigue Model Bayesian Regression Approach

1E-11

1E-10

1E-09

1E-08

0.0000001

0.000001

0.00001

1 10 100

Cra

ck g

row

th r

ate

(m/c

ycle

)

Stress intensity factor range, MPa.m^1/2

PoF model

Likelihoodfunction

Fatigue crack growth data for Alloy 690

Prior distributionof c and p

BayesianInference

Posterior distributionof c and p

Bayesian regression

),0()()82.01( 2.2 pKRcdNda

Model error • Epistemic • Aleatory

g(c, p) Parameter uncertainty

(epistemic)

g(ε)

CGR Data: Curtsey of Dr. Bill Shack, ANL

16 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Bayesian Regression and Uncertainty Characterization of Fatigue Model

Parameter Estimation

1E-11

1E-10

1E-09

1E-08

0.0000001

0.000001

0.00001

1 10 100

Cra

ck g

row

th r

ate

(m/c

ycle

)

Stress intensity factor range, MPa.m^1/2

Parameters Values estimated through Bayesian regression

μp , σp 3.75, 0.058

μc , σc 2.72E-13, 5.00E-14

μσ , σσ 4.31E-8, 2.36E-9

Parameter, c Parameter, p Parameter, σ

Bayesian regression

Bayesian Regression using WinBUGS based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling

17 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Fatigue Model Epistemic Uncertainties

212

2121),(

z

cp

ecpq2

2

2

2 )())((2)(

c

c

cp

cp

p

p ccppz

cp

pcV

1.52

2.53

3.54

x 10-13

3.653.7

3.753.8

3.85

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

x 1013

Parameter, cParameter, p

Join

t Pro

babi

lity

Den

sity

18 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Probabilistic Fretting Wear Model

Input variable distribution sampling Initial flaw size, hi

Wear force and rate of change of sliding distance with time Wear volume

growth analysis

Update wear depth, hi+1

hi+1 ≥ hcritical

tf ≥ mean life

n=n+1Repeat simulation

No

Yes

No

Yes

Wear rate prediction

force normalF radius; tubeR angle; contactα depth; wearhlength effective supportl distance; slidingL t;coefficien weark

2cos11 2 dt

dLlR

kFdtd

Random Variables Estimation Process/ Source

k Bayesian regression

19 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Uncertainty Characterization of Fretting Wear Model Bayesian Regression Approach

Bayesian regression

PoF model

Likelihoodfunction

Fretting wear data for Alloy 690

Prior distribution of k

BayesianInference

Posterior distribution of k

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Wea

r rat

e

Work rate, mW

(μm

m3 /s

) V = kFLdVdt

= k d(FL)dt

= k dWdt

V = kW+e(0,s)

Model error • Epistemic • Aleatory

g(k) Parameter uncertainty

(epistemic)

g(ε)

Data From: Lee, Y. et al., “A study on wear coefficients and mechanisms of steam generator tube materials,” Wear, Vol. 250, Issues 1-12, pp: 718–725, 2001

20 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Uncertainty Characterization of Fretting Wear Model Parameter Estimation

Parameters Values estimated through Bayesian regression

μk , σk 3.0E-11, 4.1E-12

μσ , σσ 1.17E-13, 2.0E-14

Bayesian regression

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Wea

r rat

e

Work rate, mW

(μm

m3 /s

)

Parameter, s

0.0 2.0E-13 4.0E-13 0.0

5.0E+121.0E+131.5E+13

σ Parameter, k

0.0 2.0E-11 4.0E-11 0.0

5.0E+101.0E+111.5E+112.0E+11

21 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Approach for Considering Parameter Uncertainties in Estimating SGTR Frequency

r

SGTRSGTRSGTRPSGTR

Exampleri

ii

weighted

121 )(

)(

:

“r” random samples from joint distribution

of parameters, e.g., p and c

p1 & c1

p2 & c2

p3& c3

p4 & c4

pr & cr

.

.

.

.

.

Distribution of SGTR frequency

Weighted distribution of SGTR frequency

22 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Application of PPoF-Based Approach to A New Design of Helically-Coiled SG

23 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

SG Design Parameters • SG coil is a once-through heat exchanger with many

helically coiled tubes intertwined like DNA structure. • Helical tubes are made of Alloy 690. • Compressive forces. • Primary coolant flows downward through the tube bundle

by natural circulation. • Helical tubes are subjected to liquid cross-flow externally

and multi-phase flow internally.

Cr Fe C Si Mn S Co Ni

Alloy 600 14-17 6-10 <0.15 <0.5 <1 <0.015 <0.1 Balance (>72)

Alloy 690 27-31 7-11 <0.05 <0.5 <0.5 <0.015 <0.1 Balance (>58)

24 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Identification of Underlying Operating Conditions

Vibration excitation mechanisms Occurrence conditions Effects

Fluid-elastic instability High gap flow velocities High amplitude vibration and failure in quick time

Vortex shedding Medium gap flow velocities High amplitude vibration and failure in quick time

Turbulence excitation Low gap flow velocities Low amplitude vibration causing long-term damage, e.g., fatigue, fretting wear

The high amplitude vibration excitation mechanisms should not occur for normal operating conditions in steam generators. Ref: Connors, H.J., “Flow-induced vibration and wear of steam generator tubes”, Nuclear Technology, Vol. 55, pp: 311–331, 1981.

×

×

25 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Critical Failure Mechanisms

Alloy 690 helical tubes with pre-existing flaws are susceptible to fatigue and fretting wear failure mechanisms under turbulent flow-induced tube vibration.

Failure mechanisms Degradation conditions Conditions in helical SG design

Stress corrosion cracking

Constant tensile stresses, corrosion susceptible material, corrosive

environment

Compressive stresses, Alloy 690 tube material (high corrosion resistance)

Pitting corrosion Corrosive environment, corrosion susceptible material

Alloy 690 tube material (high corrosion resistance)

Fatigue Alternating stresses, localized degradation

Alternating stresses due to turbulence induced tube vibration, manufacturing flaws

Fretting wear Oscillatory small amplitude sliding

motion between contacting components

Relative fretting motion between tube and support plates due to turbulence induced tube vibration

×

×

26 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Assessing Stresses Random Vibration Analysis Approach

• The approach developed in this research for determining the dynamic response of SG tubes to the turbulent flow-induced forces is as shown in the flowchart.

• The approach uses finite element methods to determine the turbulence induced random vibration amplitudes and stresses.

27 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Assessing Stress Agents Turbulence Induced Random Vibration

2

0cos,, dxRdtxpFy

tzF

ttzYm

ztzYEI y ,,,

2

2

4

4

y

p(x,ө,t)

zTube cross-section

Fig: Turbulent primary fluid pressures

Fig: Net lateral turbulent force time. is t

tube, of radius outer is R

pressure, fluidprimary turbulent is t) θ, p(x,

inertia, of moment secondthe is I

length, unit per mass the is m

,elasticity of modulus the is E

Where,

• Net lateral turbulent force acting on tube per unit length,

• The partial differential equation of motion of a uniform rod responding to this force is,

Blevins, R.D., “Flow-induced Vibration”, Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York, 1990.

28 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Assessing Stress Agents Finite Element Model and Modal Analysis

• Model of one span of the helical SG tube developed using ANSYS v.12.1. – Simply supported boundary

conditions used at each end of the helical span to simulate the support points.

• Modal analysis performed to obtain the natural frequencies and the modal stresses. – Reduced method used for the

eigenvalue and eigenvector extractions to calculate tube natural frequencies.

29 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Assessment of Stresses Turbulence-Induced Force PSD Calculation

• Auto spectral density of turbulence-induced force normal to the axis of a cylinder in single-phase cross flow in steam generators*:

• Critical velocity was estimated using the following equation** in order to ensure that there is no fluid-elastic instability in the tube bundles for the velocity range of interest (obtained from 2-D thermal hydraulic analysis) during turbulent flow:

.336 D/Uf0.2 ,D/Uf103 i

.5i

0.2,D/Uf0.01 ,D/Uf104 i0.5

i4

UDfi /

function shape spectralessdimensionlfD/UΦ

diameter outside tubeD

tubes between gap minimum

the throughvelocity flowcross averageU

density fluidρ

flow cross in cylinder a of axis the to normal force

inducedturbulence ofdensity spectralautoyFS

where,

yF fD/UΦUDDρU

21S

22

.336 D/Uf0.2 ,D/Uf103 i

.5i

0.2,D/Uf0.01 ,D/Uf104 i0.5

i4

UDfi /

function shape spectralessdimensionlfD/UΦ

diameter outside tubeD

tubes between gap minimum

the throughvelocity flowcross averageU

density fluidρ

flow cross in cylinder a of axis the to normal force

inducedturbulence ofdensity spectralautoyFS

where,

yF fD/UΦUDDρU

21S

22

5.0

2, 2

dmC

dfV tt

n

nc

diameter tube externaldfluid external ofdensity ρ

tube of length unit per mass totalmratio damping ζ

tcoefficieny instabilit icfluidelastC mode, vibration free nth forvelocity critical the isV

t

t

nc,

.336 D/Uf0.2 ,D/Uf103 i

.5i

0.2,D/Uf0.01 ,D/Uf104 i0.5

i4

UDfi /

function shape spectralessdimensionlfD/UΦ

diameter outside tubeD

tubes between gap minimum

the throughvelocity flowcross averageU

density fluidρ

flow cross in cylinder a of axis the to normal force

inducedturbulence ofdensity spectralautoyFS

where,

yF fD/UΦUDDρU

21S

22

*Axisa, F., et al., “Random excitation of heat exchanger tubes by cross flow”, Journal of Fluids and Structures, Vol. 4, Issue 3, pp: 321-341, 1990.

**Connors, H.J., “Flow-induced vibration and wear of steam generator tubes”, Nuclear Technology, Vol. 55, pp: 311–331, 1981.

30 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Assessing Stress Agents Random Vibration Analysis Results

One span of a helical tube

rms,2rms,2 y,σ

rms,1rms,1 y,σ

rms,3rms,3 y,σ

rms,4rms,4 y,σ

rms,5rms,5 y,σ

σrms = rms bending stressesyrms = rms vibration amplitudes

SGTR frequency assessment: • Bending stresses were used in probabilistic fatigue model. • Vibration amplitudes were used to calculate the normal force initiating wear and rate of

change of sliding distance with time, which were used in probabilistic fretting wear model.

31 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Assessing Stress Agents Force Initiating Fretting Wear

• Normal force initiating wear assuming clearance between the tube and its supports:

• Equivalent stiffness, kc assuming an equivalent linear spring acting in the direction of motion as soon as impact occurs:

modulus sYoung'E diameter; tubed thickness; tubeh

where,

dh

dEhkc

2

9.1modulus sYoung'E diameter; tubed thickness; tubeh

where,

dh

dEhkc

2

9.1

ntdisplacemetubermsofcomponentnormalrmsy

supportits and tube a between clearance diametricg

ncombinatio supporttube of s stiffnesequivalentck

plates supportand tube between force contact normalnF

where,

gyifF

gyifgykF

rmsn

rmsrmscn

,0

),(

ntdisplacemetubermsofcomponentnormalrmsy

supportits and tube a between clearance diametricg

ncombinatio supporttube of s stiffnesequivalentck

plates supportand tube between force contact normalnF

where,

gyifF

gyifgykF

rmsn

rmsrmscn

,0

),(

Au-Yang, M.K., “Flow-induced vibration of power and process plant components”, ASME Press, New York, 2001.

32 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

SGTR Frequency Predictions for the New Design of Helical SGs Using the Developed PPoF Models and Calculated Stress Agents

33 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Uncertainty Representation of SGTR Frequency Due to Fatigue

34 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Uncertainty Representation of SGTR Frequency Due to Fretting Wear

35 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Uncertainty Representation of Total SGTR Frequency

36 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Summary and Conclusions • Historical failure data-based SGTR frequency estimates do not apply to

SMRs – Based on non-homogeneous data collected from varied PWRs. – Not plant specific. – Do not account for degradation conditions or tube material and

geometry. • A PPoF-based SGTR frequency prediction approach has been developed

in this research. – Accounts for underlying degradation conditions. – Considers epistemic and aleatory uncertainties of models and data.

• An application of the PPoF approach has been successfully implemented.

• PPoF technique provides an effective tool for evaluating safety and reliability of new SGs and other passive systems and structures.

37 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Future Direction

More detailed 3-D thermal hydraulic analysis of the

primary-side fluid-flow characteristics (e.g., gap turbulent flow velocities, fluid density) and secondary side in SG tube bundles during normal operating conditions in the SMRs.

Better characterization of the initial flaw characteristics

would be useful.

38 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR

Thank you!


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