1 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
A Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure Approach to Assessment of Frequency of In-Vessel Steam Generator Tube Rupture
Accident in SMRs Mohammad Modarres
Professor of Nuclear Engineering Center for Risk and Reliability
Department of Mechanical Engineering University of Maryland College Park
PRESENTED AT THE NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
MIT OCTOBER 17, 2011
Copyright 2012 by M. Modarres
2 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
Topics Covered
• SMR Steam Generator: Overview • Issues Related to SGTR Frequency of SMRs • Overview of the Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure
Approach Used • Application Example and Results • Conclusions
3 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
Acknowledgements
• The work is part of the PhD research of one my current students: Mr. Kaushik Chaterjee
• The SG example shown is a scaled version of the actual SGs used
• Collaborative efforts with NuScale Power and input from NuScale Power, Inc. is greatly appreciated
• Crack growth rate data and Alloy 690 samples were provided by Dr. Bill Shack and Dr. Bogdan Alexandreanu of Argonne National Laboratory
4 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
NuScale Reactor • Natural Convection for
Cooling
– Inherently safe natural circulation of water over the fuel driven by gravity
– No pumps, no need for emergency generators
• Simple and Small
– Reactor is 1/20th the size of large reactors
– Integrated reactor design, no large-LOCAs
Courtesy of NuScale Power, Inc.
5 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
Decay Heat Removal System Using Steam Generators
• Two independent single-failure-proof trains
• Closed loop system • Two-phase natural circulation
operation • DHRS heat exchangers
nominally full of water • Primary coolant natural
circulation is maintained • Pool provides a 3 day cooling
supply for decay heat removal
Courtesy of NuScale Power, Inc.
6 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
Decay heat removal using the containment • Provides a means of removing core decay
heat and limits containment pressure by: – Steam Condensation – Convective Heat Transfer – Heat Conduction – Sump Recirculation
• Reactor Vessel steam is vented through the reactor vent valves (flow limiter)
• Steam condenses on containment • Condensate collects in lower containment
region • Reactor Recirculation Valves open to
provide recirculation path through the core • Provides +30 day cooling followed by
indefinite period of air cooling.
Courtesy of NuScale Power, Inc.
7 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
Stable Long Term Cooling Reactor and nuclear fuel cooled indefinitely without pumps or power
WATER COOLING BOILING AIR COOLING
Courtesy of NuScale Power, Inc.
8 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR) • SGTR one of the most significant safety issues in PWRs.
– Leads to loss of primary coolant inventory, primary side de-pressurization and potential reactor core meltdown.
– Bypasses the plant’s containment structure, resulting in direct release of radioactivity into atmosphere.
• Frequency of SGTR in required in Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) of PWRs.
• There have been 10 large scale SGTR occurrences in US between 1975 and 2000.
• Several other reported cases of SG tube leakages and low scale ruptures (100,000 plugging as per US NRC).
An example of SGTR event (US NRC, LER, 1990): – SGTR event occurred at McGuire Unit 1 PWR near Charlotte, NC on March 7, 1989. – Cause of this SGTR was stress corrosion cracking under normal operating conditions.
(IAEA, 2007)
9 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
Estimation of SGTR Frequency • Historical SGTR data
– Different SG geometry environmental and operating conditions. – Non-homogeneous historical data are combined.
• Example (NUREG-1829, 2005/ NUREG-5750, 1999): – SGTR data from a database for a 15-year time period between 1987 and 2002 were
queried. – 4 SGTR events that had leak rates greater than 100 GPM were identified.
Power plant Year Degradation
mechanism Tube
Material
Cumulative PWR reactor years of
operation (15 yrs)
SGTR frequency/
yr
North Anna, VA 1987 Fatigue Alloy 600
1133 ≈4x 10-3
McGuire, NC 1989 Stress corrosion cracking Alloy 600
Palo Verde, AZ 1993 Stress corrosion cracking Alloy 600
Indian Point, NY 2000 Stress corrosion cracking Alloy 600
10 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
Estimation of SGTR Frequency Large Scale PWRs vs. SMRs
Some SMR Designs: • Helical shaped tubes • Advanced tube material resistant to
corrosion • Compressive stresses • Negligible risk from stress corrosion
cracking
Large scale PWRs designs: • U shaped or straight tubes • Tubes subjected to tensile stresses • Tube material susceptible to
corrosion • Stress corrosion cracking is the
primary degradation mechanism
Historical data-based SGTR frequency • Based on non-homogeneous data • Not reactor specific
–Actual reactor operating (boundary) conditions not taken into account
–Tube material properties or geometry not taken into account
Chatterjee, K. and Modarres, M., “A probabilistic physics-of-failure approach to prediction of steam generator tube rupture frequency”, Nuclear Science and Engineering, Volume 170, Issue 2, 2012.
11 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
PPoF Estimation of SGTR Frequency Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure (PPoF) is a structured mechanistic-based
approach with consideration of uncertainties. – Why mechanistic?
• Considers underlying degradation and processes that lead to failure. – Why probabilistic?
• Considers uncertainties associated with unknown or partially known factors such as material properties, manufacturing methods, model uncertainties, and measurement errors.
Research objective: – Develop a PPoF-based approach to SGTR frequency prediction.
– Develop mechanistic models of applicable primary failure mechanisms under normal operating conditions.
– Develop a Bayesian approach to estimate and characterize the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties.
– Develop an approach to estimate the stress agents acting on tubes. – Develop a probabilistic reliability simulation and prediction approach.
12 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
PPoF-Based Approach for SGTR Frequency Prediction
Identify SG tube geometry and material properties
Identify underlying operating conditions
Identify probable degradation mechanisms
Formulate mechanistic models
Estimate SGTR frequency through MATLAB simulation
Experimental degradation data
Initial flaw severity
Characterize epistemic and aleatory uncertainties
Assess stress agents
Identify underlying degradation conditions
Finite element analysis
13 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
SG Tube Primary Failure Mechanisms
• Alloy 690 (higher corrosion resistance) used in modern steam generators. • Risk of tube failure from SCC and pitting corrosion considerably reduced*. • Susceptible to failure mechanisms: fatigue and fretting wear caused by flow-induced
tube vibration.
SGTR
Fatigue
Fretting wear Pitting corrosion
Stress corrosion cracking
*Berge, P. et al., “Materials requirements for pressurized water reactor steam generator tubing”, Nuclear Technology, Vol. 55, October 1981.
14 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
Probabilistic Fatigue Model
Random Variables Estimation Process
c Bayesian regression
p Bayesian regression
ai Literature data
ΔS Finite element analysis
da / dN = crack growth rate; DK = stress intensity factor range; R = stress ratio;a f = final crack size; c & p = model parameters; Y = crack geometry factor; tm = mean life of steam generator; a i = initial crack size; DS= stress range for the applied loading
),0()()82.01( 2.2 pKRcdNda
15 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
Uncertainty Characterization of Fatigue Model Bayesian Regression Approach
1E-11
1E-10
1E-09
1E-08
0.0000001
0.000001
0.00001
1 10 100
Cra
ck g
row
th r
ate
(m/c
ycle
)
Stress intensity factor range, MPa.m^1/2
PoF model
Likelihoodfunction
Fatigue crack growth data for Alloy 690
Prior distributionof c and p
BayesianInference
Posterior distributionof c and p
Bayesian regression
),0()()82.01( 2.2 pKRcdNda
Model error • Epistemic • Aleatory
g(c, p) Parameter uncertainty
(epistemic)
g(ε)
CGR Data: Curtsey of Dr. Bill Shack, ANL
16 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
Bayesian Regression and Uncertainty Characterization of Fatigue Model
Parameter Estimation
1E-11
1E-10
1E-09
1E-08
0.0000001
0.000001
0.00001
1 10 100
Cra
ck g
row
th r
ate
(m/c
ycle
)
Stress intensity factor range, MPa.m^1/2
Parameters Values estimated through Bayesian regression
μp , σp 3.75, 0.058
μc , σc 2.72E-13, 5.00E-14
μσ , σσ 4.31E-8, 2.36E-9
Parameter, c Parameter, p Parameter, σ
Bayesian regression
Bayesian Regression using WinBUGS based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling
17 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
Fatigue Model Epistemic Uncertainties
212
2121),(
z
cp
ecpq2
2
2
2 )())((2)(
c
c
cp
cp
p
p ccppz
cp
pcV
1.52
2.53
3.54
x 10-13
3.653.7
3.753.8
3.85
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
x 1013
Parameter, cParameter, p
Join
t Pro
babi
lity
Den
sity
18 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
Probabilistic Fretting Wear Model
Input variable distribution sampling Initial flaw size, hi
Wear force and rate of change of sliding distance with time Wear volume
growth analysis
Update wear depth, hi+1
hi+1 ≥ hcritical
tf ≥ mean life
n=n+1Repeat simulation
No
Yes
No
Yes
Wear rate prediction
force normalF radius; tubeR angle; contactα depth; wearhlength effective supportl distance; slidingL t;coefficien weark
2cos11 2 dt
dLlR
kFdtd
Random Variables Estimation Process/ Source
k Bayesian regression
19 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
Uncertainty Characterization of Fretting Wear Model Bayesian Regression Approach
Bayesian regression
PoF model
Likelihoodfunction
Fretting wear data for Alloy 690
Prior distribution of k
BayesianInference
Posterior distribution of k
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Wea
r rat
e
Work rate, mW
(μm
m3 /s
) V = kFLdVdt
= k d(FL)dt
= k dWdt
V = kW+e(0,s)
Model error • Epistemic • Aleatory
g(k) Parameter uncertainty
(epistemic)
g(ε)
Data From: Lee, Y. et al., “A study on wear coefficients and mechanisms of steam generator tube materials,” Wear, Vol. 250, Issues 1-12, pp: 718–725, 2001
20 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
Uncertainty Characterization of Fretting Wear Model Parameter Estimation
Parameters Values estimated through Bayesian regression
μk , σk 3.0E-11, 4.1E-12
μσ , σσ 1.17E-13, 2.0E-14
Bayesian regression
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Wea
r rat
e
Work rate, mW
(μm
m3 /s
)
Parameter, s
0.0 2.0E-13 4.0E-13 0.0
5.0E+121.0E+131.5E+13
σ Parameter, k
0.0 2.0E-11 4.0E-11 0.0
5.0E+101.0E+111.5E+112.0E+11
21 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
Approach for Considering Parameter Uncertainties in Estimating SGTR Frequency
r
SGTRSGTRSGTRPSGTR
Exampleri
ii
weighted
121 )(
)(
:
“r” random samples from joint distribution
of parameters, e.g., p and c
p1 & c1
p2 & c2
p3& c3
p4 & c4
pr & cr
.
.
.
.
.
Distribution of SGTR frequency
Weighted distribution of SGTR frequency
22 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
Application of PPoF-Based Approach to A New Design of Helically-Coiled SG
23 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
SG Design Parameters • SG coil is a once-through heat exchanger with many
helically coiled tubes intertwined like DNA structure. • Helical tubes are made of Alloy 690. • Compressive forces. • Primary coolant flows downward through the tube bundle
by natural circulation. • Helical tubes are subjected to liquid cross-flow externally
and multi-phase flow internally.
Cr Fe C Si Mn S Co Ni
Alloy 600 14-17 6-10 <0.15 <0.5 <1 <0.015 <0.1 Balance (>72)
Alloy 690 27-31 7-11 <0.05 <0.5 <0.5 <0.015 <0.1 Balance (>58)
24 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
Identification of Underlying Operating Conditions
Vibration excitation mechanisms Occurrence conditions Effects
Fluid-elastic instability High gap flow velocities High amplitude vibration and failure in quick time
Vortex shedding Medium gap flow velocities High amplitude vibration and failure in quick time
Turbulence excitation Low gap flow velocities Low amplitude vibration causing long-term damage, e.g., fatigue, fretting wear
The high amplitude vibration excitation mechanisms should not occur for normal operating conditions in steam generators. Ref: Connors, H.J., “Flow-induced vibration and wear of steam generator tubes”, Nuclear Technology, Vol. 55, pp: 311–331, 1981.
×
×
√
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Critical Failure Mechanisms
Alloy 690 helical tubes with pre-existing flaws are susceptible to fatigue and fretting wear failure mechanisms under turbulent flow-induced tube vibration.
Failure mechanisms Degradation conditions Conditions in helical SG design
Stress corrosion cracking
Constant tensile stresses, corrosion susceptible material, corrosive
environment
Compressive stresses, Alloy 690 tube material (high corrosion resistance)
Pitting corrosion Corrosive environment, corrosion susceptible material
Alloy 690 tube material (high corrosion resistance)
Fatigue Alternating stresses, localized degradation
Alternating stresses due to turbulence induced tube vibration, manufacturing flaws
Fretting wear Oscillatory small amplitude sliding
motion between contacting components
Relative fretting motion between tube and support plates due to turbulence induced tube vibration
×
×
√
√
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Assessing Stresses Random Vibration Analysis Approach
• The approach developed in this research for determining the dynamic response of SG tubes to the turbulent flow-induced forces is as shown in the flowchart.
• The approach uses finite element methods to determine the turbulence induced random vibration amplitudes and stresses.
27 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
Assessing Stress Agents Turbulence Induced Random Vibration
2
0cos,, dxRdtxpFy
tzF
ttzYm
ztzYEI y ,,,
2
2
4
4
y
Rө
p(x,ө,t)
zTube cross-section
Fig: Turbulent primary fluid pressures
Fig: Net lateral turbulent force time. is t
tube, of radius outer is R
pressure, fluidprimary turbulent is t) θ, p(x,
inertia, of moment secondthe is I
length, unit per mass the is m
,elasticity of modulus the is E
Where,
• Net lateral turbulent force acting on tube per unit length,
• The partial differential equation of motion of a uniform rod responding to this force is,
Blevins, R.D., “Flow-induced Vibration”, Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York, 1990.
28 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
Assessing Stress Agents Finite Element Model and Modal Analysis
• Model of one span of the helical SG tube developed using ANSYS v.12.1. – Simply supported boundary
conditions used at each end of the helical span to simulate the support points.
• Modal analysis performed to obtain the natural frequencies and the modal stresses. – Reduced method used for the
eigenvalue and eigenvector extractions to calculate tube natural frequencies.
29 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
Assessment of Stresses Turbulence-Induced Force PSD Calculation
• Auto spectral density of turbulence-induced force normal to the axis of a cylinder in single-phase cross flow in steam generators*:
• Critical velocity was estimated using the following equation** in order to ensure that there is no fluid-elastic instability in the tube bundles for the velocity range of interest (obtained from 2-D thermal hydraulic analysis) during turbulent flow:
.336 D/Uf0.2 ,D/Uf103 i
.5i
0.2,D/Uf0.01 ,D/Uf104 i0.5
i4
UDfi /
function shape spectralessdimensionlfD/UΦ
diameter outside tubeD
tubes between gap minimum
the throughvelocity flowcross averageU
density fluidρ
flow cross in cylinder a of axis the to normal force
inducedturbulence ofdensity spectralautoyFS
where,
yF fD/UΦUDDρU
21S
22
.336 D/Uf0.2 ,D/Uf103 i
.5i
0.2,D/Uf0.01 ,D/Uf104 i0.5
i4
UDfi /
function shape spectralessdimensionlfD/UΦ
diameter outside tubeD
tubes between gap minimum
the throughvelocity flowcross averageU
density fluidρ
flow cross in cylinder a of axis the to normal force
inducedturbulence ofdensity spectralautoyFS
where,
yF fD/UΦUDDρU
21S
22
5.0
2, 2
dmC
dfV tt
n
nc
diameter tube externaldfluid external ofdensity ρ
tube of length unit per mass totalmratio damping ζ
tcoefficieny instabilit icfluidelastC mode, vibration free nth forvelocity critical the isV
t
t
nc,
.336 D/Uf0.2 ,D/Uf103 i
.5i
0.2,D/Uf0.01 ,D/Uf104 i0.5
i4
UDfi /
function shape spectralessdimensionlfD/UΦ
diameter outside tubeD
tubes between gap minimum
the throughvelocity flowcross averageU
density fluidρ
flow cross in cylinder a of axis the to normal force
inducedturbulence ofdensity spectralautoyFS
where,
yF fD/UΦUDDρU
21S
22
*Axisa, F., et al., “Random excitation of heat exchanger tubes by cross flow”, Journal of Fluids and Structures, Vol. 4, Issue 3, pp: 321-341, 1990.
**Connors, H.J., “Flow-induced vibration and wear of steam generator tubes”, Nuclear Technology, Vol. 55, pp: 311–331, 1981.
30 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
Assessing Stress Agents Random Vibration Analysis Results
One span of a helical tube
rms,2rms,2 y,σ
rms,1rms,1 y,σ
rms,3rms,3 y,σ
rms,4rms,4 y,σ
rms,5rms,5 y,σ
σrms = rms bending stressesyrms = rms vibration amplitudes
SGTR frequency assessment: • Bending stresses were used in probabilistic fatigue model. • Vibration amplitudes were used to calculate the normal force initiating wear and rate of
change of sliding distance with time, which were used in probabilistic fretting wear model.
31 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
Assessing Stress Agents Force Initiating Fretting Wear
• Normal force initiating wear assuming clearance between the tube and its supports:
• Equivalent stiffness, kc assuming an equivalent linear spring acting in the direction of motion as soon as impact occurs:
modulus sYoung'E diameter; tubed thickness; tubeh
where,
dh
dEhkc
2
9.1modulus sYoung'E diameter; tubed thickness; tubeh
where,
dh
dEhkc
2
9.1
ntdisplacemetubermsofcomponentnormalrmsy
supportits and tube a between clearance diametricg
ncombinatio supporttube of s stiffnesequivalentck
plates supportand tube between force contact normalnF
where,
gyifF
gyifgykF
rmsn
rmsrmscn
,0
),(
ntdisplacemetubermsofcomponentnormalrmsy
supportits and tube a between clearance diametricg
ncombinatio supporttube of s stiffnesequivalentck
plates supportand tube between force contact normalnF
where,
gyifF
gyifgykF
rmsn
rmsrmscn
,0
),(
Au-Yang, M.K., “Flow-induced vibration of power and process plant components”, ASME Press, New York, 2001.
32 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
SGTR Frequency Predictions for the New Design of Helical SGs Using the Developed PPoF Models and Calculated Stress Agents
33 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
Uncertainty Representation of SGTR Frequency Due to Fatigue
34 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
Uncertainty Representation of SGTR Frequency Due to Fretting Wear
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Uncertainty Representation of Total SGTR Frequency
36 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
Summary and Conclusions • Historical failure data-based SGTR frequency estimates do not apply to
SMRs – Based on non-homogeneous data collected from varied PWRs. – Not plant specific. – Do not account for degradation conditions or tube material and
geometry. • A PPoF-based SGTR frequency prediction approach has been developed
in this research. – Accounts for underlying degradation conditions. – Considers epistemic and aleatory uncertainties of models and data.
• An application of the PPoF approach has been successfully implemented.
• PPoF technique provides an effective tool for evaluating safety and reliability of new SGs and other passive systems and structures.
37 Center for Risk & Reliability (CRR) University of Maryland Copyright © 2011 CRR
Future Direction
More detailed 3-D thermal hydraulic analysis of the
primary-side fluid-flow characteristics (e.g., gap turbulent flow velocities, fluid density) and secondary side in SG tube bundles during normal operating conditions in the SMRs.
Better characterization of the initial flaw characteristics
would be useful.