Accenture Mobility MWC 2012 - Bubble over barcelona - lars kamp

Mobile World Congress 2012

Always On. Always Connected.

Being everywhere can help your business go anywhere.

Lars Kamp

Mobility Trends that Will Define the Next Decade

Copyright © 2012 Accenture All rights reserved. 2

Thank you for organizing #bobmwc!


Today’s topics

Platform Proliferation

Cloud Cornucopia

App Avalanche

Commodity Computing

Architecture Approaches

Fast Forward

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Copyright © 2011 Accenture All rights reserved.

Click to edit Master text stylesPlatform Proliferation

Copyright © 2012 Accenture. All rights reserved. 4

More and more mobile devices


The Digital World in 2012: Growth since 2007

Source: United Nations, ITU, Gartner, Portio Research, Accenture analysis.

7.0 Billion Global Population

5.9 Billion Mobile Subscriptions

4.6 Billion Mobile Subscribers

2.5 Billion Internet Users

1.2 Billion Mobile Internet Users

354%

84%

48%

76%

6%


Smartphones: A two-horse race with potential for 3rd

Share of Global Mobile Installed Base of Smartphone OS

Source: Gartner.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012EOthers (including Symbian®,

Web OS, Palm® OS)

AndroidTM

Apple

RIM

Windows® Phone


Android iterating 2x per year …One major dessert every six months

Source: Google; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.

Oct 2008Android Market

announced.“G1”

July 2005Android acquired

by Google

2005 2007 2008 2009 20112010

Sept 2003Android incorporated.

“Astro” & “Bender”Nov 2007

OHA founded.“Android” platform

unveiled.

Apr 2009Android

SDK released

History of Android

D E FC GSept 2009Donutv1.6

Oct 2009Éclair v2.0

May 2010 FroYo v2.2

April 2009

Cupcakev1.5

Dec2010GiBrv2.3

… HMar2011HoCov3.0

…IOct

2011IC

v4.0

2012

JH1

2012JB

v5.0?


… with rapid ecosystem adoptionOne OEM and SemiCo at a time

Source: pdadb.net; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.

D

Sept 2009Donutv1.6

E

Oct 2009Éclair v2.0

F

May 2010 FroYo v2.2

C

April 2009

Cupcakev1.5

G

Dec2010GiBrv2.3

H

Mar2011HoCov3.0

HTC

Dream

Samsung

Behold II

Motorola

Droid

HTC

Nexus One

Samsung

Nexus S

Motorola

Xoom

Android Release

“Hero” Device

Chip

Qualcomm MSM7201A 528MHz

QualcommQSD8250998MHz

IntrinsityS5PC1101,000MHz

NVIDIATegra 2 2501,000MHz

TI OMAP3430600 MHz

Qualcomm MSM7201A 528MHz

Oct2011

IceCrmv4.0

I

Samsung

Galaxy Nexus

H12012JB

v5.0?

?

?

?

TI OMAP44601,200MHz

J


Google’s mobile business: towards 1m activations / dayMonthly AndroidTM Device Activations 2011, Thousands per day

Source: Androinica, Engadget, Google, IDC, TechCrunch, Accenture analysis.

300 325 350 375 400

500550

600 625 650 675 700

Jan2011

Feb2011

Mar2011

Apr2011

May2011

Jun2011

Jul 2011 Aug2011

Sep2011

Oct2011

Nov2011

Dec2011

½ million activations per day


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

10

Platform proliferation

Source: Jeff Haynie / Appcelerator.

AppleiOS 1.0

Apple iOS 2.0

Apple iOS 3.0

Apple iOS 5.0

Apple iOS 4.0

iPhone 3GiPhone 1 iPhone 3GS iPhone 4G iPhone 4S

iPad iPad 2 iPad 3

Android 1.0 Cupcake Eclair Ice Cream SandwichGingerbread

Android 1.1 Donut Froyo Honeycomb

Samsung Galaxy Tab 7

Kindle 4

Samsung Slate

Kindle Fire

Motorola Droid RAZR

Samsung Galaxy Nexus

Motorola Bionic

Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1

Sony Tablet

Samsung Galaxy SII

HTC Thunderbolt

HTC Incredible S

Samsung Sidekick 4G

ASUS Eee Slider

Motorola Xoom

Motorola Droid X2

HTC Desire

Motorola Droid X

Google Nexus S

LG Optimus

Google TV

Nook Color

HTC Legend

Google Nexus One

HTC EVO

HTC Droid

HTC Aria

HTC Droid Incredible

Motorola Droid Milestone

Explosion of OS versions and device flavors







Click to edit Master text stylesCloud Cornucopia


Abundance of computing power in the cloud


Burden Water Wheel: 370 kW

Source; Smithsonian, Nicholas Carr.

1851 - to Burden Iron Works Plant in Troy (NY), 60ft away


Adam’s Plant: 37,000 kW1895 - to Buffalo (NY), 22 miles away


Adam’s Plant1,250 hp / 932 kW to Buffalo (NY)22 miles away

Times Square


Source: Centre for Computing History.

”In addition to making raw

computer power available in

a convenient economical

form, a computer utility

would be concerned with

almost any service or

function which could in some

way be related to the

processing, storage,

collection and distribution of

information.”

The Challenge of the Computer Utility, 1966

Copyright © 2012 Accenture. All rights reserved.


Source: Flickr.

Enterprise Data Center: 10s of CPUs


Facebook Data Center: 100,000s of CPUs

Source: Facebook


Multi-$B investments into data centersMassive, “off-deck” geo-distributed computing power

Source: Data Center Knowledge; Accenture analysis, 2012.

Prineville, OR USA The Dalles, OR USA

Maiden, NC USA Dublin, Ireland

Lockport , NY USA

Morrow, OR USA

Apple Amazon Microsoft

Facebook Yahoo Google


Google’s major Capex in Cloud build-outGoogle Inc. Quarterly Capex, Q1 2004 – Q2 2011, Million USD

Source: Google SEC filings, Accenture analysis.

86 96 78 59

142157

293246

345

699

492

367

597575553

678

842

698

452

368

263

139186

221239

476

757 745

890917

680

951

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


Exponential growth in the cloudAmazon.com S3 pricing vs. objects stored, 2007-2012

Source: Amazon AWS Blog, University of Washington; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

$0.08

$0.09

$0.10

$0.11

$0.12

$0.13

$0.14

$0.15

$0.16

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Amazon S3 pricing($/GB/Month)

Number of objects in S3 (Billions)

24%

$0.09

14B-2.4%

Peak request: 500,000+ per second

Quarterly CAGR’07-’12







Click to edit Master text styles


App AvalancheAppification of everything


The App Store economyCatalog size Apple AppStoreSM & Android Market, by quarter

Source: Apple, Google, Xyologic; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.

740 600

Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2'11 Q3'11 Q4'11 Q1'12

~725K

~420K

Apple AppStoreSM

Android Market


“Appification” of people, things, machines, real estateSoftware replacing everything

Source: iPhone screenshots; Accenture analysis, 2012.

PeopleCabulous

ThingsMercedes-Benz mbrace

MachinesChase Mobile

replacing

Dispatchers

replacing

Keys

replacing

ATMs

Real EstateCherry

replacing your

Corner Car Wash


Mobile applications + Cloud = ConsumerizationSoftware disrupting incumbent business models across the board

Source: iPhone screenshots; Accenture analysis, 2012.

TransportRelayRides

Office ITBreezy

FinanceSquare

Cars Printers Payments

Real EstateLiquidSpace

Office space


eBay: Transformation to a mobility companyAccelerating volume growth for eBay’s mobile apps.

Source: eBay SEC filings & earning calls; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012. GMV = “Gross Merchandise Value”; TPV = “Net Total Payment Volume”.

$14.1 $14.4 $14.5

$.2 $.6 $2

Q4'09 Q4'10 Q4'11

$21.3 $26.6 $31.8

$0.04 $0.2 $1.6

Q4'09 Q4'10 Q4'11

eBay Marketplaces GMV (US$B)per fiscal quarter, ‘09-11

PayPal TPV (US$B)per fiscal quarter, ‘09-11

Mobile

Desktop

= 100%$14.2 $15.0 $16.5 $21.4 $26.9 $33.4

2%

8%

Mobile

Desktop

= 100%

517%

22%

25%

233%

1.4% 4% 13% <1% <1% 5%Mobile Share of GMV

Mobile Share of TPV

CAGR’09-11

CAGR’09-11









Commodity ComputingShift in enterprise IT consumption to “XaaS”


Cost of computing coming down exponentiallyUS Asset Price Index, 1969 – 2010

Source: BEA, Andrew McAfee; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.

101

102

103

104

105

1970 2010200019901980

Normalized, 2005 = 100

Industrial Equipment

Other Equipment

Transportation Equipment

Computers and Peripheral Equipment


Increasing enterprise IT consumptionUS IT Investment, 1969 – 2010

Source: BEA, Andrew McAfee; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

Annual Investment per Employee ($)

Nominal Annual Investment ($B)

1970 2010200019901980


0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

29

Shift from HW to SW-driven consumptionHardware spend moving into XaaS

Source: BEA; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.

US IT Investment, 1969 – 2010SW : HW Ratio

1970 2010200019901980


“Wintel”

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

30




1970 2010200019901980


“XaaS”

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

31




1970 2010200019901980


“XaaS”

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

32




1970 2010200019901980

1995YHOO, AMZN, NSCP:

Commercial Web

1990Tim Berners-LeeWorldWideWeb

20071st iPhone1990

ARPANET decommissioned









Architecture ApproachesParadigm shift in the way IT is built


The 3 pillars driving mobility & cloud computingOperating principles of market leaders

“We regularly contribute software source code under open source licenses and have made other technology we developed available under other open licenses, and we include open source software in our products.”

Facebook S-1 Filing

Open Source

“Though iOS is proprietary, we strongly believe that all standards pertaining to the web should be open. Rather than use Flash, Apple has adopted HTML5, CSS and JavaScript – all open standards.”

Steve Jobs

Open Standards

“All interfaces must be designed from the ground up to be externalizable. The team must plan and design to expose the interface to developers in the outside world. No exceptions. Anyone who doesn’t do this will be fired.”

Jeff Bezos

APIs


Open Source: Evolution of Android’s code baseFrom 3.6M to 17.1M lines in the code base in 3.5 years

Source: Ohloh.net.

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12

Lines of code

Comments

Blanks


“HTML5” – fastest growing keyword in job postingsJob trends from Indeed.com

Source: Indeed Job Trends.

1. HTML5

2. MongoDB3. iOS4. Android5. Mobile app6. Puppet7. Hadoop8. jQuery9. PaaS10.Social Media


APIs – the new currency“Programmable Web”, number of published APIs per month, 2006-2011

Source: Programmable Web; Chart created and compiled by Accenture, 2012.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Cumulative

2012

5,000+


Putting it all together: shift in “hot skills”Something’s cookin’…

Source: Indeed Job Trends.

“API”

“iOS”

“Android”

“HTML5”


Shift in architecture paradigmsFrom vertical silos to …

Source: Jeff Haynie / Appcelerator, Accenture analysis..

The Past

3-Tier CentralizedWeb Architecture

The New Reality

Presentation

Logic

Data

App-centric Distributed Cloud Model


Shift in architecture paradigmsRunning a building vs. running a city

The Past

Running a BuildingStove Pipes

The New Reality

Presentation

Logic

Data

Running a CityPlatforms

Source: Getty Images.


Fast ForwardApps & connected devices transforming our lives and society


From appification to task-centric instrumentationChannels, triggers, actions

Twineifttt


ifttt uptake during 2011Early experiment in instrumentation

Source: ifttt blog.


Decreasing share of labor in the age of connected devices Nonfarm Business Sector: Labor Share (Index 2005 = 100)

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Federal Reserve Economic Data St. Louis Fed; Andrew McAfee, Accenture analysis. Shaded areas represent recessions.

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

110

94

Mobile World Congress 2012

Always On. Always Connected.

Being everywhere can help your business go anywhere.

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