Achieving a sustainable energy balance for the U.S.

current energy mix - 80% fossil fuel

increasing renewables (wind, solar, tidal, geothermal, etc)

increasing nuclear

carbon sequestration (?)

electricity as primary energy carrier

biomass/biofuels (?)

unconventional hydrocarbons (?)

Regulation and ‘reasonable cost’ strategies

carbon emissions tax (‘cap and trade”)

tax incentives

‘hidden costs’ (e.g. health, environment) in current energy systems

Sankey diagram – ‘lost energy’ - gains from greater efficiency in energy conversions (Evans figure 10.1)

co-generation

capture waste heat (e.g. coal-fired plants)

minimize conversion steps

Move to ‘electricity economy’ – electricity as primary energy carrier

increase generation capacity

battery technology limitations in transport

renewable/nuclear mix (Evans scenario 1 – figure 10.3)

coal with carbon dioxide sequestration (Evans scenario 2 – figure 10.4)

Costs of renewable sources of electricity - capital and operating

Wind – 8 cents per KWH

Photovoltaics – 30 cents per KWH

Biomass – 7 cents per KWH

Landfill gas - 7 cents per KWH

Geothermal – 8 cents per KWH

Small hydro – 8 cents per KWH

Tidal - 12 cents per KWH

Coal – 4.5 cents per KWH

Nuclear – 8 cents per KWH

Natural gas as intermediate solution (Boone Pickens scenario)

lower carbon emissions per unit of energy compared to coal

reserves more widespread than petroleum

makes use of existing technology

CNG for transportation

LNG for long-distance transport

Social consequences in any scenario

Modification of behavior (e.g. public transportation)

Cultural adaptation (e.g. to windfarms, smaller houses)

Economic impact – higher energy costs

What is the intermediate term outlook according to the EIA?

(OECD – Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development 40 countries)