Agricultural trade reform:
the development perspective
By Tjalling Dijkstra
Sustainable Economic Development Department
Ministry of Foreign Affairs
The Hague
• %-wise developing countries gain more than OECD
countries; LDCs gain most
• Largest proportion of gains arises because of
agricultural trade liberalisation
• In OECD: modest impact on av. farm household
• In DCs: poverty falls for agr and diversified
households, rises for non-agr households
Full trade liberalisation:
• Overall gains reduced and distribution altered
• SSA, Bangladesh a.o. will lose
• Major reasons why some countries lose: Negative
terms of trade effect for net food importers,
Preference erosion, Increase underemployment
when smallholder production replaced by imports.
More realistic Doha scenario:
1. Special and Differential treatment
2. Support for net food importers
3. Compensate preference erosion
4. Aid for trade
Turning losers into winners:
SDT in agriculture: smaller reduction of tariffs,
longer implementation periods, more sensitive
products, special products on basis of food
security, livelihood strategy and rural
development, 100% DFQF market access for
LDCs, front loading cotton.
But Arguments for SDT must be clear.
1. Special and Differential Treatment
• Implementation Marrakesh decision (1994)
• Little recent progress; discussions on: ex-ante
financing mechanism aimed at food importers (2002);
multilateral Food Import Financing Facility (2003)
• Alternative solution: improve domestic food
production and trade (+ SDT)
2. Support to net food importers
Africa: agricultural issue related to CAP reform
Compensation questions:
• Take the value of specific preferential access
agreements or to net adverse effect of MFN
liberalisation over all?
• Bilateral or multilateral responsibility?
• Focus on specific crops or diversify?
3. Preference erosion
Definition: Trade policy and regulations, Trade
development, Trade-related infrastructure,
Building productive capacity, Trade-related
adjustment.
Strengthen: The demand side, The donor response
(incl. Paris agenda), The bridge between demand
and response, Monitoring and evaluation.
4. Aid for Trade
1. Consequences of different scenario’s for
different groups of DCs, e.g. 20-20-20, five and
five, 60% and 15 bln. (answers required quick
but not dirty)
2. Weighing offensive and offensive interests of
each group of developing countries (e.g.
Agriculture versus Mode 4 for SSA)
What policy makers in DCs (+ DGIS) need Knowledge on (1):
1. What is the development friendly upper limit of
specific SDT measures for individual countries
(e.g. % special products, G33: 20%)?
2. Analysis of conflicting interests of different
developing country groups (e.g. Latin America
versus ACP countries for tropical products)
Knowledge on (2):
1. Institutional changes required to tackle supply
side constraints in specified countries
2. Diversification scenarios in relation to
preference erosion
3. (lack of) complementarity between multilateral,
regional and bilateral trade agreements
Knowledge on (3):
Coordination and alignment also in research
Building analytical capacity in the South
Thank you.
In addition: