(AIACC. AF90 NORTH AFRICA PROJECT)

Assessment of Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability to Climate Change on North Africa: Food Production and Water Needs

AIACC Regional Workshop (23 – 27 March. Dakar. Senegal)

Tunisien contribution

Stakeholders engagement By Survey analysis in Kairouan region.

Raoudha Mougou, Amel Nafti and Riadh Chatteli

CLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE

• Increasing rainfall variability

• Increasing temperature

• Increasing evaporation rate

• Increasing water deficit

POPULATION INCREASEPOPULATION INCREASE

•Agricultural, industrial, touristic activity

•• Low rainfall Low rainfall

•• Variable rainfallVariable rainfall

• • High temperature High temperature

• High radiation • High radiation

• • High evaporationHigh evaporation

•• Mediocre quality of water Mediocre quality of water More then 30% available More then 30% available water >3g/l saltwater >3g/l salt

WATER RESOURCESWATER RESOURCESLIMITED LIMITED VARIABLE VARIABLE

MEDIODRE QUALITYMEDIODRE QUALITY

Unbalance between offer and demand

Tunisia climate (Aride and Semi aride (75 % of total area)Aride and Semi aride (75 % of total area)

Vulnerability.

Cereals

1.6 millions of hectares.

34% of cultivated areas

16% of total production.

Fruit trees

2 millions of hectares

1.3 millions of hectares olives trees

40% of cultivated areas

60 % of exported food products

Vulnerability.

Distribution of agricultural land use

in TunisiaAtlas des sols tunisiens.

(Mtimet 1999.)

The importance of Rainfed agriculture(Data 1993)

Irrigated areas (1000ha)

Rainfed areas

(1000ha)

Rainfed/Total

(1000ha)�ِ Cereals 34 1646 97%

Trees 130 1835 93%

Vegetable 108 42 28%

Fodder 23 285 92%

Vulnerability.

Wheat water deficit (Different bioclimatic regions)

(Mougou et Hénia. 1996)

Kairouan (Aride)

Bizerte (Humide)

Jendouba (Semi aride)

Tunis (Semi aride)

Climate impacts.

Cereals yields in the North and the Centre regionsCereals yields in the North and the Centre regions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998

Rendement/SR Kairouan Rendement/SR Béja

Q/ha

Climate impacts.

Effect of irrigation on cereals production

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

ة (سقوي) اإلنتاجّي� مرعي) + ة (سقوي اإلنتاجّي�

Climate impacts.

Average cereal yields in Kairouan regionAverage cereal yields in Kairouan region

Rainfed cereals and Irrigated cerealsRainfed cereals and Irrigated cereals

Rainfed cerealsRainfed cereals Irrigated cerealsIrrigated cereals

Durum wheat Barley Durum wheat Barley

Average Average maximal yield maximal yield

q/ha q/ha 32.832.8 39.639.6 46.746.7 54.254.2

Average minimal Average minimal yield q/ha yield q/ha 00 00 24.224.2 37.937.9

Climate impacts.

Mean yield during rainy and dry years Mean yield during rainy and dry years (1995 to 2003) in Kairouan region(1995 to 2003) in Kairouan region

- The wheat yield during rainy years are too higher than dry years.- The wheat yield during rainy years are too higher than dry years.- The yield increase during the rainy years ranges between:- The yield increase during the rainy years ranges between: 178 percent (Sbikha) and 80 percent (Ouslatia) of dry years yields.178 percent (Sbikha) and 80 percent (Ouslatia) of dry years yields.

Rainy yearsRainy years

(1995/1996 and (1995/1996 and 2002/2003 2002/2003

Dry yearsDry years

(1996/1997 to 2001/2002) (1996/1997 to 2001/2002) Yield increase Yield increase during rainy during rainy

years years in relation in relation to dry yearsto dry years

(%)(%)

Mean Mean rainfallrainfall (mm) (mm)

Mean Mean yields (qt) yields (qt)

Mean rainfallMean rainfall (mm)(mm)

Mean Mean yields (qt) yields (qt)

Kairouan Kairouan 231.55231.55 15.515.5 114.2114.2 6.56.5 138138

SbikhaSbikha 275.2275.2 17.517.5 112.6112.6 6.36.3 178178

HaffouzHaffouz 269.15269.15 1414 99.199.1 66 133133

OuslatiaOuslatia 317.7317.7 15.515.5 130.9130.9 8.68.6 8080

Climate impacts.

Stakeholders engagement

By Survey analysis in

Kairouan region

The first beneficiaries are the smalls farmers.

- Materiel conditions

- Knowledge

- Nombre (about 80%)

Areas in Areas in hectareshectares

Rate of total Rate of total number (%)number (%)

Rate of total Rate of total area (%)area (%)

≤ ≤ 5 ha5 ha 5353 99

≤ ≤ 10 ha10 ha 7373 2121

- to define

the rate of rainfed cereals in the farms;

the farmers behaviour toward the climate variability effect on agricultural production;

the current and future vulnerability of rainfed cereals;

- to analyse the capability of the farmers to adapt to climate variability;

- to list the adaptation methods already used in the farms;

- to specify what prevent the farmers to adapt to current and future climate variability.

Survey objectives

Survey analysis

- How the survey analysis have been made ?How the survey analysis have been made ?- Who was involved- Who was involved ??

We are here

and here

and here

Survey analysis

Kairouan region

- The most vulnerable region because of high climatic variability.

- Water deficit and drought represent a permanent risk for rainfed agriculture.•Drought may occurs: 1 year out of 3 or out of 4.

- Severely dry years (deficit > 50%), drought persistence: more frequent in the south and the center than in the North.

-Moderate temperatures, but very hot conditions frequent may occur from May to September

-High temperatures (45°C in August) may affect cereal production when they occur in the growing season by increasing the evaporation rate.

Vulnerability.

Hum ide supérieur

Hum ide inférieur

Sub-hum ide

Sem i-aride supérieur et moyen

Semi-aride inférieur

Aride supérieur

Aride inférieur

Saharien supérieur

Saharien inférieur

LEGENDE

CARTE BIO CLIMATIQ UE DE LA TUNISIE

B iz e rte

T un is

M a teu rS e jnan e

T aba rka

A in D rahamB e ja

J end ouba

Le K e fS il iana

M ak ta r

T ha la

K as se r ine

S id i B ou Z id

Z agh ouanN ab eu l

K é lib ia

E l H aoua ria

S ou ss e

M o nas tir

M ah d ia

S fax

E l J em

K a irouan

G a fs a

G ab èsH oum t S ouk

T o zeurN a f ta

K é b ili

D o uz

M a tm a ta

M e den ine

T a ta ou ine

B en G ardane

R em a da

B o rj B ou rgu iba

0 k m 1 0 0 k mEchelle

D res sé e t des s iné pa r F itou r i M us ta pha I .N .R .G .R .E .F .11 /200 2

D 'ap rè s la car te éd ité e à u ne su bven tio n d uC .N .R .S .P ar is ,F R A N C E a cc ord ée à M . M oh am e d A bdelhamid NABLI,Professeur à la Faculté des

Sc ie nce s d e T u n is . TU NISIE

Ministère de l'Agriculture, de l'Environnement et des Ressources Hydrauliques

INRGREF

Questionnaire destiné aux agriculteurs

Cadre de l'enquête :

Projet sur « l'Evaluation de l'Impact et Adaptation au Changement Climatique »

AIACC AF 90 : North Africa Project

Gouvernorat de KairouanEnquête N° :………………… Menée par : …………………………………Date :……………………………………….

Survey analysis

1- Localisation de l’exploitation2- Identification de l'agriculteur3- Systèmes de production et modes de conduite

3.1- Répartition des cultures3.2- Pratiquez- vous l’élevage ?

4- Occupation des parcelles5- Techniques utilisées (Céréales en pluvial) 6- Variation des rendements (Céréales en pluvial)7- Causes des variations des rendements8- Causes des variations de la production9- Climat et production10- Etat des connaissances des agriculteurs sur le

changement climatique 11- Mesures d'adaptation

Survey analysis

Survey Sampling Methods

Survey analysis

3500 farmers that produce cereals in the Kairouan region

1500 of them have changed their production system to market gardening

~ 2000 farmers represent cereal production

A significant sample must contain

at least 5% of total population.

100 farmers

We limited the survey to 3% of total population.

58 farmersThe sampling method: “Random Sampling”

Survey analysis

Characteristics of the target farmers

Farmers- Average age: 58 years Schooling: - Illiterate: 55.17 % - Primary education: 36.20 % - Secondary: 5.17 % -Higher: 3.45 %

-Farms- Average farm size: 29.83 ha - Percentage of farms smaller than 10 ha: 34.5 % - Percentage of farms between 10 ha and 50 ha: 53.5 % - Percentage of farms larger than 50ha: 12 %

Low schooling rate

The farms size is relatively high compared to the average farms size.

Farmers attitude toward climatFarmers attitude toward climat

The totality of farmers expressed their suffering from difficult climatic conditions and drought years (1997 to 2002).

Even during the rainy years rainfall distribution can be inadequate for the crops. Dry conditions in March decrease cereal production and result in a loss of income for the farmer.

- 96.5 % of agricultural output is determined by climate. - 12 % knows the possibility of adaptation methods to climatic change. - 91.4 % of the farmers use their own methods of adaptation to current climate variability. - 48.4 % of them have the will to build a well, but they found administrative, financial and land constraints.

Survey analysis

Changes of sowing date if the autumn is drier than normal; Changes of sowing date if the autumn is drier than normal;

Storage of fodder to ensure the livestock food; Storage of fodder to ensure the livestock food;

Cactus cultivation for fodder in dry years;Cactus cultivation for fodder in dry years;

Changes in cultural techniques ;Changes in cultural techniques ;

Ovine breeding is considered as a valuable option and Ovine breeding is considered as a valuable option and interesting adaptation strategy, (the potential resistance of interesting adaptation strategy, (the potential resistance of sheep, their capacity for using a fodder resources, the sheep, their capacity for using a fodder resources, the possibility of using crops without alternative value, such as possibility of using crops without alternative value, such as cactus, that is an added value of sheep productioncactus, that is an added value of sheep production

The choice of crop varieties is not considered important and is not listed as an adaptation option by the majority of the farmers.

Supplementary Supplementary IrrigationIrrigation

Adaptation methodes used by the farmers

Survey analysis

SupplementarySupplementary irrigation is applied by 25.86 % of the farmers.

Irrigation is applied mainly to fodder crops for livestock.

The irrigated surface represent only 3.26 % of the total cultivated area because of:

-the small amount of water available;

-the financial constraints to purchase irrigation materials.

All farmers that use supplemental irrigation are conscious of the advantages of fertilization and its management (date, frequencies and quantities).

Rainfed cereals are the principal activity even for the farmers who have access to water.

Irrigation

Survey analysis

Survey analysis

To conclude

Previous analyses of drought management in Tunisia

that variability in cereal production is explained by the variability of rainfall with a rate of:

78 % for the North;

50 % for the Center;

40 % for the South.

This is confirmed by our study that shows that in Kairouan region

rainfall variability explains 56 % of the cereal yield variability

According to farmers:

96.5 % of agricultural output are determined by climate

The farmers over-estimate the effect of climate variability.

In addition to climate variability, the low yields could be explained by:

-A very low level of farmers schooling: Only 20.7 % of farmers adopt the extension services advice. The farmers cannot adopt easily new techniques even if they agree with them. A difficulty for the extension services to change the farmers behaviours.

The extension services are efficient only in medium and large farms (Dr. Chennoufi and Dr. Nefzaoui) :

“technologies generated appear to be more readily adopted by large-scale farmers, agricultural development agencies, rural development societies and cooperative farms, rather than by the majority of medium-and small-scale farmers” .

Why ? And How ?

Survey analysis

The involvement of the rural population concerned to attain the objective remains essential. That is why nowadays the participative approach is necessary for the use of new technology.

The approach objective is to develop technologies adapted to the ecological and socio economic conditions.

We can attend these objectives by research development programs realized taking into account the farmer’s strategies.

Nevertheless in Tunisia, the strategies of rural development are directed towards a participative approach and a technical aid mainly for small farmers who represent about 80% of farmers.