Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-142-Caliphate-ISIS-27

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-142-Caliphate-ISIS-27If not us, who? If not here, where? If not now, when?

The West has failed utterly to understand the appeal of the ISIS narrative, much less to develop effective counter narratives.Oh mujahideen, we call on you to prepare yourselves spiritually and materially to strike terror and fear into the hearts of the Jews. … Know that the soldiers of Islam are fighting here in Iraq, Syria, Khorasan, and West Africa, but their sights are set on Bayt Al-Maqdis [Jerusalem]. But for now, Islamic State is more of an observer to the violence waging in Israel as local groups such as Hamas have the advantage in claiming the terror as its own because of proximity and its experience waging war against Israel, not only in words,” MEMRI

Former British PM apologises for ‘wrong’ intelligence and mistakes in planning of conflict and admits ‘elements of truth’ in claim war brought about rise of Isis. Asked by host Fareed Zakaria if the Iraq war was “the principal cause” of the rise of Islamic State, he was reported by the Mail on Sunday to have conceded: “I think there are elements of truth in that.” He added: “Of course you can’t say those of us who removed Saddam in 2003 bear no responsibility for the situation in 2015.” “He did not say the decision to remove Saddam in 2003 ‘caused Isis’ and pointed out that Isis was barely heard of at the end of 2008, when al-Qaida was basically beaten. “He went on to say in 2009, Iraq was relatively more stable. What then happened was a combination of two things: there was a sectarian policy pursued by the government of Iraq, which were mistaken policies. “But also when the Arab spring began, Isis moved from Iraq into Syria, built themselves from Syria and then came back into Iraq.

It is still unclear how badly hurt Baghdadi was. The Islamic State has become one of the most serious regional concerns for

domestic and international security. Many Southeast Asian nations now have to face up to the foreign fighter phenomenon with increasing numbers of their citizens being lured by the ISIS ideology. To date, over 500 Indonesians and 200 Malaysians are believed to have joined Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. This is a worrying trend, especially for Malaysia given its relatively small population.

Oct 21, The Pentagon is putting in a plan to reboot its strategy in the Middle East after continuous failures to reclaim the ISIS-controlled cities of Ramadi and Mosul in Iraq. Both Washington and Bagdad are said to have grown frustrated at the lack of progress and pressure is now being put on Iraq's Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to ask Moscow to conduct airstrikes in the country. America's new strategy, which is expected to be outlined to Congress next week, is being lead by military commander General Joseph Dunford, who has said he has received assurances from Abadi he will not seek help from Russia, something the Kremlin is said to be keen to offer.

BAGHDAD, Oct. 23 (MNA) – Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, and the head of the National Iraqi Alliance, Ibrahim al-Jaafari, discussed on Thursday the state budget for 2016 with special attention to the fight against the ISIL.

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 1 of 14 01/05/2023

mailto:[email protected]


MIND GAMES10.25.15 The West has failed utterly to understand the appeal of the ISIS narrative, much less to develop effective counter narratives.

Managed savagery; state of "chaos" or "savagery" (at-tawahoush), it would seem, is winning out over ease, security, and avoidance of pain.

It’s not as if the core approach of ISIS is a mystery. Required reading for the emirs of the Islamic State is Abu Bakr Baji’s The Management of Savagery, a detailed manifesto, published a decade ago, looking at the West’s debilities and the potential strengths of a rising, ruthless caliphate. One typical maxim: “Work to expose the weakness of America’s centralized power by pushing it to abandon the media psychological war and the war by proxy until it fights directly.” That is, suck U.S. troops into the fight.

Without universal appeal, and quality individual time, little progress can be made beyond what’s achievable by force of arms. Appeals to "moderation" (wasattiyah) fall flat on restless and often idealistic youths seeking adventure, glory and significance. "Brainwashing" and "nihilism" are vapid notions most often adopted by those (especially politicians and parents) who simply do not want to face the problem, or are in denial, about the multifaceted appeal of ISIS to yearning young people who want to be rebels with a cause, to stick it to the man — who want, as they see it, to defend the oppressed.

What is needed is a platform where the lessons of local successes can be shared with government, and ideas allowed to bubble up from young people to those who can help refine and realize them.

The ISIS narrative is rooted in the reality of Muslim dominance of middle Eurasia until the European industrial revolution, and rejection of the Western world order imposed after the Ottoman collapse — an order that has failed the region in all its tried and various forms, whether nationalist authoritarianism, socialism, fascism, communism, democratic liberalism, or constitutional monarchy.

The Real Power of ISIS The West has failed utterly to understand the appeal of the ISIS narrative, much less to develop effective counter narratives. As U.S. troops and their allies stage commando raids to rescue prisoners slated for slaughter by the so-called Islamic State, and the Russians mount bombing raids to bolster the dictatorship of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, it’s easy amid the kinetics to lose sight of a central and potentially determining fact about the fight against ISIS (or ISIL, or Daesh): This is, fundamentally, a war of ideas that the West has virtually no idea how to wage, and that is a major reason anti-ISIS policies have been such abysmal failures.





It’s not as if the core approach of ISIS is a mystery. Required reading for the emirs of the Islamic State is Abu Bakr Baji’s The Management of Savagery, a detailed manifesto, published a decade ago, looking at the West’s debilities and the potential strengths of a rising, ruthless caliphate. One typical maxim: “Work to expose the weakness of America’s centralized power by pushing it to abandon the media psychological war and the war by proxy until it fights directly.” That is, suck U.S. troops into the fight. In the meantime ISIS is reaching out, especially in Africa but also in Central Asia and wherever a state of "chaos" or "savagery" (at-tawahoush) exists, to fill the void. It is establishing its caliphate as a global archipelago where "volcanoes of jihad" erupt, so that it may survive even if it's current core base between the Euphrates River in Syria (Raqqa) and the Tigris in Iraq (Mosul) is seriously degraded. Libya is a prime target as the gateway to a continent in chaos, where ISIS is investing heavily. Over 700 Saudi fighters have gone there in recent months, according to evidence Saudi leaders presented to me in August.Current “counter narratives” aren't in the least appealing or successful, whether in attracting or deterring ISIS supporters and recruits. They are mostly negative and they lecture at young people rather than dialoguing with them. As one former ISIS imam told me and my colleagues: the young who came to us were not to be lectured at like witless children; they are for the most part understanding and compassionate, but misguided. In contrast with, say, the off-target tweets of the U.S. State Department’s “Think Again Turn Away” campaign, the Islamic State may spend hundreds of hours trying to enlist single individuals, to learn how their personal frustrations and grievances can fit into a universal theme of persecution against all Muslims, and thus translate anger and frustration into moral outrage.Current counter-radicalization approaches lack the mainly positive, empowering appeal and sweep of the Islamic State’s story of the world, while at the same time lacking the personalized and intimate approach to individuals. Any serious engagement must be attuned to individuals and their networks, not to mass marketing of repetitive messages. Young people empathize with each other; they generally don’t lecture at one another. From Syria, one young woman messages another: “I know how hard it is to leave behind the mother and father you love, and not tell them until you are here, that you will always love them but that you were put on this earth to do more than be with or honor your parents. I know this will probably be the hardest thing you may ever have to do, but let me help you explain it to yourself and to them.”According to people I spoke with at the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center, the government currently has exactly one person in the field dealing on a personal level with these issues for the country, and the FBI is doing its best to “get out of the messy business of engagement for prevention” and just stick to criminal investigation. “No one wants to own any of this,” one woman from the NCTC told us. Without universal appeal, and quality individual time, little progress can be made beyond what’s achievable by force of arms. Appeals to "moderation" (wasattiyah) fall flat on restless and often idealistic youths seeking adventure, glory and significance. "Brainwashing" and "nihilism" are vapid notions most often adopted by those (especially politicians and parents) who simply do not want to face the problem, or are in denial, about the multifaceted appeal of ISIS to yearning young people who want to be rebels with a cause, to stick it to the man — who want, as they see it, to defend the oppressed.





Grass roots approaches are not sufficient. The opponents of ISIS can exhibit local success (UNOY Peacebuilders has had remarkable results in this regard) but this will not challenge the broad appeal of the Islamic State that attracts young people from nearly 90 nations and every walk of life. What is needed is a platform where the lessons of local successes can be shared with government, and ideas allowed to bubble up from young people to those who can help refine and realize them. To date no such platform exists. Young people with good ideas have no really good institutional channels to develop them: naive demands such as "governments must do this or that" are dismissed out of hand by people in government who have to deal with real-world constraints on power and its exercise.There are striking historical parallels with the rise of ISIS. The French Revolution suffered through internal factionalism and fighting, “the Terror” was introduced as a political tactic,

the realms of the revolution were invaded by a fractious coalition of outside powers, yet the revolution survived, transformed, and emerged as the Empire. The failure and aftermath of the 1848 revolutions that swept Europe is somewhat suggestive of what happened with the Arab Spring, when participatory democracy had not yet sufficiently developed the underlying values and institutions — free press, independent judiciary, tolerance of minorities, etc. — needed to make popular choice and elections more than a tyranny of the majority.The rise of al-Qaeda in the late 20th century is reminiscent of the rise of anarchism in the late 19th century. The present dwindling of AQ relative to Daesh is similar to the co-opting and near annihilation of the anarchists by the Bolsheviks, who knew much better how to manage a shared political ambition through military and territorial administration. And there are lessons to be learned from the experience of the Nazis as well: the National Socialist movement had genuine appeal as it asked for self-sacrifice in a glorious mission





of radical, world historical change that rejects all prior international norms governing the relations between peoples and nations.George Orwell, in his review of Mein Kampf in 1940, descried the essence of the problem: “Mr. Hitler has grasped the falsity of the hedonistic attitude to life. Nearly all western thought since the last war, certainly all ‘progressive’ thought, has assumed tacitly that human beings desire nothing beyond ease, security and avoidance of pain. Hitler knows… that human beings don’t only want comfort, safety, short working-hours, hygiene, birth-control and, in general, common sense; they also, at least intermittently, want struggle and self-sacrifice.” In a similar vein, the Arab Sunni radical revivalist trend, of which ISIS is now the spearhead, is a dynamic, revolutionary countercultural movement of world historic proportions, and simply treating it as a form of "terrorism" or "violent extremism," or convincing oneself that refusing to call it by its own name can somehow de-legitimize it, is to my mind delusional and therefore only adds to the danger. ISIS is not directed, controlled or contained by the institutions and power arrangements of the prevailing nation-state system, which was the case with the fascist movement, the communist movement before the collapse of the Soviet Union, and for that matter the Iran-dominated Shia awakening. So it has not been well understood, much less coherently dealt with, by our own academics and policymakers, whose views of history do not fathom, or wish to fathom, the moral seriousness, depth, and often compelling alternate view of history that ISIS presents. The ISIS narrative is rooted in the reality of Muslim dominance of middle Eurasia until the European industrial revolution, and rejection of the Western world order imposed after the Ottoman collapse — an order that has failed the region in all its tried and various forms, whether nationalist authoritarianism, socialism, fascism, communism, democratic liberalism, or constitutional monarchy.Finally, there is a disheartening dynamic between the rise of radical Islamism and the revival of the xenophobic ethno-nationalist movements that are beginning to undermine seriously the middle class — the mainstay of stability and democracy — in Europe in ways reminiscent of the hatchet job that the communists and fascists did on European democracy in the 1920s and 30s. The fact that Europe's reproductive rate is 1.4 children per couple and so needs considerable immigration to maintain a productive workforce that can sustain the middle class standard of living — at a time where there has never been less tolerance for immigration, and which is another situation of chaos that ISIS is well-positioned to exploit — is not a happy development. Managed savagery, it would seem, is winning out over ease, security, and avoidance of pain.

ISIS TRYING TO CO-OPT PALESTINIAN JIHAD AGAINST ISRAEL AS PART OF ITS OWN CAUSE by EDWIN MORA24 Oct 201551

The Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL), through several of its media organs, has expressed support for the deluge of Palestinian terrorist attacks currently plaguing Israel, calling for more.A new report by the Washington, D.C.-based Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) Jihad and Terrorism Threat Monitor argues the new outbursts of support for Palestinian terrorism is an attempt to commandeer the cause as part of its own. ISIS considers itself the authority in political and religious matters for all Muslims, with its Caliphate backing Sunnis who fight its enemies. ISIS regards the Muslim Brotherhood’s movements and affiliates, such as the terrorist group Hamas, as too pragmatic and not radical enough. “In much of the Islamic world, when there are various approaches, the radical one tends to trump those deemed to be weaker,” notes The Jerusalem Post.According to a poll conducted by the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies in Doha, Qatar, late last year, nearly one-quarter of Palestinians had positive views of





ISIS. However, “the pro-ISIS presence within the Palestinian territories should not be exaggerated. It is primarily limited to small and divided pro-IS groups in Gaza,” Middle East Forum fellow Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi told The Jerusalem Post.That being said, ISIS “does not need to have an operational presence on the ground in Israel to be effective, as its propaganda over the Internet can serve as an incitement tool for more attacks,” declares the Post.ISIS has embarked upon a media campaign that involves the release of a series of videos in support of the ongoing terrorist attacks in Israel and encouraging the Palestinians to carry out more lone wolf assaults, the new report by MEMRI reveals. As he congratulates the Palestinian attackers on their recent attacks on the Jews, the narrator of a nine-minute video declares:Oh mujahideen, we call on you to prepare yourselves spiritually and materially to strike terror and fear into the hearts of the Jews. … Know that the soldiers of Islam are fighting here in Iraq, Syria, Khorasan, and West Africa, but their sights are set on Bayt Al-Maqdis [Jerusalem]. The footage was released by ISIS’ information office in Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city. Mosul fell to ISIS in June 2014. Khorasan is an ancient name for a region that covers large parts of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, India, and other surrounding countries.The MEMRI report noted that “a substantial part of these videos is dedicated to ideological attacks on Hamas and Fatah.” “Fatah has become an agent of the infidel Jews and Christians, while Hamas is doing the bidding of the Shi’ites [Iranians] and Alawites [the regime of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad],” said the report.The Middle East Forum’s Tamimi told the The Jerusalem Post that ISIS rhetoric in support of the deteriorating security situation on the ground in Israel fueled by the Palestinian attacks is an effective means to make headlines. It also “fits in with [the] idea of supporting the cause of Muslims everywhere,” said Tamimi who closely monitors Islamist opposition groups in Iraq and Syria. ISIS has established a foothold in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Egypt, and other regions and is expanding its presence across the globe, with its affiliates pushing for power as far as its Khorasan Province–Afghanistan.“Arab youth in the Palestinian territories and Israel are influenced by the storm waging in neighboring countries and are willing to join the call to action and seek martyrdom for the sake of their cause,” notes the Post. “But for now, Islamic State is more of an observer to the violence waging in Israel as local groups such as Hamas have the advantage in claiming the terror as its own because of proximity and its experience waging war against Israel, not only in words,” it adds.

WASHINGTON (Sinclair Broadcast Group) — Israeli police say two Palestinians stabbed a Jewish man Thursday who survived the attack. Police shot back, killing one Palestinian and wounding another. According to The Associated Press, a police spokesman said a private security guard shot and killed the man, who was allegedly mistaken as one of the attackers. This is just the latest in a series of violent attacks in Israel in recent weeks.Now, experts say ISIS has a stake in the on-going violence there. Also according to terror experts, the Islamic state is eyeing a vast piece of desert land directly to Israel's south. ISIS has called on Palestinian Muslims on social media to kill Israeli soldiers and civilians in recent weeks to "return terror to the Jews."Israel is looking into whether recent violent attacks are ISIS connected. As ISIS expands its influence in the Middle East and if its calls on Palestinians to kill Israeli Jews gain any traction, it could cause havoc on Israel's borders; especially to the south.Bill Braniff is a terrorism expert from the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. "You have the Sinai Peninsula sitting between the border of





Israel and the Egyptian state, 1" says Braniff. "These are 2 countries where the peace treaty forms the basis of stability in the Middle East."The Sinai Peninsula is among the latest ISIS targets where ISIS is linking up with several lesser-known extremists with the ultimate goal of establishing a caliphate. If the Islamic state gains a strong foothold on this desert land while cheering on the Palestinian violence, experts say that does not bode well for Israel. Representative Bradley Byrne (R-Ala.) agrees. "The Israelis are going to do what the Israelis are going to do to defend themselves and protect themselves and they should and we should support them in doing that."Terror experts say Israel retaliating against ISIS factions in the peninsula is exactly what ISIS wants and weighing a military response should be the last thing Israel considers."Hopefully, they will have thought through this and they will have communicated with Egyptian counterparts to mitigate whatever crisis may occur should the Islamic state begin to start this campaign of violence," says Braniff. Senator Ed Markey (D- Mass.) says ISIS is still trying to acquire more real estate in the near east. "ISIS is calling for the killing of Americans in America. ISIS is calling for the killing of people in country after country around the world," says Senator Markey."So, its part of an overall plan which they have." Senator Markey says the latest mission in that plan appears to be seizing a new region that sits on Israel's doorstep.

TEHRAN (FNA 24 Oct )- Over 84 terrorists have laid down arms and surrendered to the Syrian authorities in the Central Homs province, local sources said on Saturday.Some 84 wanted persons from Homs and its countryside turned themselves in to the authorities to be pardoned, provincial officials said. Earlier this month, some 558 wanted militants have surrendered to the Syrian authorities as the army troops, backed by Russian air support, gained a faster momentum in their match on terrorist-held regions.Some 258 wanted persons from the provinces of Damascus, Idlib, Hama, Aleppo, Hasaka and Deir Ezzur turned themselves in to the Syrian authorities to be pardoned. Official sources said a sum of 300 people from Hama laid down arms and surrendered to Syrian Army yesterday, while previously 560 wanted persons from Damascus, Damascus countryside, Quneitra and Homs gave up fight and turned themselves in to the authorities October 7. The army troops, backed by Russian warplanes, have made major advances in their fight against the Takfiri terrorists across the Arab country in recent days. Following the Syrian-Russian joint operations, thousands of Takfiri terrorists have also fled Syria to Jordan, Turkey and Europe.

Iraq: ISIL Retreats October 22, 2015: After nearly a year of stalemate near the oil refinery at Baiji (on the Tigris River between Baghdad and Mosul 200 kilometers north of Baghdad) has been broken as government forces made major progress in October. Security forces have managed to push ISIL (al Qaeda in Iraq and the Levant) away from most of the refinery. For over a year ISIL attacks were constant and deadly. They generally involved suicide car bombs and equally determined gunmen. In the last few months the security forces developed better ways to deal with these attacks to the point where they could call in air strikes on ISIL men preparing for another attack and stop it before the Islamic terrorists were able to even make their move. This was made possible by the growing capabilities of the Iraqi Air Force, which at Baiji has been accounting for some 90 percent of the dozen or so air strikes a day. The Iraqi ground controllers have gotten lots of experience and become quite

1 Al Zawahir: "the road to Jerusalem passes through Cairo. See End of this file"





effective at quickly calling in air strikes. This apparently made it too expensive for ISIL. For nearly a year ISIL was willing to suffer as many as several hundreds of casualties a week to hold onto parts of the refinery and the surrounding town. But since September ISIL has been sending in fewer replacements and this has enabled government forces to regain control of most of the refinery and the surrounding town. ISIL has been fighting here since mid-2014 and this is the first time they have been unable to make an effective effort to regain lost ground. In the past they pushed back many times and kept returning with more suicide bombers and mobs of suicidal gunmen anytime the army gained some ground. At this point unless ISIL can muster a lot of reinforcements and do it quickly the security forces will be able to push the Islamic terrorists far enough away to restart refinery operations before the end of the year. The Beiji refinery can process 320,000 barrels of oil a day and that represents more than a quarter of Iraq’s refining capacity. It was always the case that until ISIL is cleared out of Baiji a major advance on Mosul was not practical. But with ISIL being forced out the government has revived its plan to taking back Mosul and reinforcements are being moved up to get that attack under way.

The nearly two million civilians in and around Mosul are largely in favor of liberation, the sooner the better. The ISIL occupation force is becoming more brutal and paranoid this year. Earlier in the month 25 civilians were publicly executed outside the city after being accused of spying for the government. A lot more civilians are arrested and never heard from again. Even many ISIL men are not happy to be in Mosul where the hostile population and the growing threat of being cut off by advancing Iraqi and Kurds forces makes it clear that the future is not promising.Meanwhile security forces have been making progress in retaking Ramadi. In the last month more American and Iraqi troops have been sent to Anbar. The Americans are there to train and advise Iraqi soldiers, police and pro-government tribal militias. Most of the several thousand U.S. troops were at al Asad airbase (in eastern Anbar) but more are being sent west, closer to ISIL occupied Ramadi and the main ISIL forces. Iraqis handle security for these bases but American troops take part in the fighting when needed. More American troops are being seen out in the countryside with Iraqi troops. There are about 5,000 ISIL gunmen in Anbar and that number appears to be declining. Several recent ISIL defeats in Syria and ISIL have been bad for morale and suddenly ISIL seems to have fewer people to send out to fight. Many ISIL local hires have deserted and taken with them useful information on where ISIL stores its weapons and other important stuff. More of these sites are being bombed even though they are, from the air, just another building with nothing special going on around it. The locally recruited tribesmen (especially those on the ISIL payroll) were also unhappy with the ISIL policy of kidnapping tribal elders and killing them or holding them for ransom (money or cooperation from tribal chiefs for whatever ISIL wanted). A lot of the local tribesmen working for ISIL are related to some of the elders kidnapped or murdered by ISIL and that bad treatment is not appreciated. ISIL needs some victories in Anbar but is having a hard time making that happen. At the moment the ISIL forces defending Ramadi are not showing their usual aggressiveness and resolve. Thus soldiers have been able to slowly advance, removing roadside bombs and mines as they do. American and Iraqi officials have been insisting that Ramadi will be retaken by the end of the year. Such claims are often based on intel that is not available to the public. For a long time it was believed this was just wishful thinking but now the Iraqis are closing in and ISIL is not responding. In the last few days Jordan has doubled its troop strength on its Iraqi border, which is near Ramadi and what Jordan expects will soon be a major battle with ISIL.





So far the American led air coalition has carried out nearly 7,700 air strikes (64 percent in Iraq and the rest in Syria). The growing number of Iraqi and Russian air strikes to not follow the restrictive American ROE (Rules of Engagement) and have been more effective. There are accusations from within the American intelligence community that political leaders are hiding the truth about how the restrictive ROE are crippling the air offensive against ISIL in Iraq and Syria. Another reason for the greater success of Iraqi and Russian air strikes is that they have air controllers on the ground to make sure the right target is hit. The American political leadership forbids putting American air controllers on the ground despite the fact that American military commanders believe that the chances of these U.S. troops getting killed or captured is an acceptable risk because it would mean more effective air strikes. Currently the American ROE is obsessed with avoiding any civilian losses from air strikes and ISIL exploits this by regularly using human shields. The locals, including the Iraq government, realize this is counterproductive because the longer ISIL remains operational the more death and misery they bring to the millions of civilians they control.

Budget Blues The need to deal with ISIL plus the falling price of oil has produced a growing problem with the Iraqi government budget. The additional expenses to fight ISIL plus the lower price of oil has meant more deficits Because Iraq has a lousy credit history there are not a lot of lenders available and the government has been forces to cut the budget. Thus the 2016 budget of $95 billion is nearly ten percent lower than the 2015 one and still 12 percent of the money must be borrowed. This is more troublesome because some 70 percent of the budget goes to pay salaries of government employees, many of them unneeded. But these additional civil servants are how the implacably corrupt government survives. Hire enough people in an economy crippled by massive corruption and you have some control over the victims of the corruption. This has long been a common practice in the region and became easier to implement with the arrival of the oil business nearly a century ago. One of the things that attracts young men to ISIL is the promise to eliminate the corruption. Of course Moslem radicals have been making that promise for centuries and getting away with it but that’s another matter.

The War Against IranThe low oil price is Saudi Arabia’s way (along with some other local Sunni oil states) to put the hurt on Iran. One reason for seeking nuclear weapons is to give Iran the ability to persuade the Saudis to ship less oil and let the price go up. After that there will be the demand to let Iran run the Moslem holy places in Mecca and Medina. The Saudis are not willing to make deals and remain firm on their oil policy. Iraq, being a largely (80 percent) Arab country that is majority (60 percent) Shia is caught in the middle. The Iraqi Shia Arabs don’t want to be dominated by non-Arab Iran (where Arabs are openly despised) but also don’t want to be dominated by their Sunni Arab neighbors and especially not by their own Sunni Arab minority (which created ISIL and has been a major supporter of Islamic terrorism since 2003). The Shia dominated Iraq government also has problems with its Kurds, who are Sunni but not Arab. The government has been trying to get the Kurds to obey the Arab majority and since 2014 has been using Arab control over most oil income for that. The Kurds have not been sent their share of oil income in the last year and as a result the Kurds have not been able to pay their own excessive force of government employees. Many have not been paid in three months and are demonstrating more frequently and violently. Kurdish participation in the fight for Mosul is expected to involve some financial relief from the Iraqi government. This strained relationship





between the Arab Iraqi government and the non-Arab Kurds shows you the kind of problems any ruler in the region has, especially if the ruler is corrupt and inefficient.The government has backed away from recent anti-American (and pro-Russian) statements. This came after the United States threatened to withdraw military aid and let the Iraqis depend on Russia and Iran instead. While Iraq receives weapons from Iran and Russia, these do not match the higher quality (and more effective) stuff the Americans can provide. Moreover, if the Americans leave so does major protection against problems with Sunni Arab neighbors like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The government is also wary of the Shia militias Iran has helped organize, train and advise. Some of these militias are loyal to Iraqi Shia clerics who want Iraq to be ruled by a religious dictatorship, as Iran is. Most Iraqi Shia do not want that and the government makes sure these Shia militias get paid on time and are well supplied. These militiamen are not the best troops Iraq has but their fanaticism and enthusiasm makes them more effective than the average Iraqi soldier. Meanwhile these militiamen have sometimes turned on anti-Iran Iraqi demonstrators, beating up the otherwise peaceful Iraqi civilians. This just increases the tensions and is a major reason why Iran is less of a threat to Iraq than most foreigners (especially in the West) fear.The Russian intervention in Syria initially led Iraq to openly accuse the United States of being ineffective and unwilling to do what it takes to defeat ISIL. Iraqi leaders pointed out that over a year ago the U.S. and its Arab allies promised sufficient air support and other military assistance to defeat ISIL. That has not worked. Iraq believes the United States lacks the will to get the job done while Iran and Russia do have what it takes. Iraq also announced that it had established an intelligence sharing arrangement with Iran, Syria and Russia and invited the United States to join. The U.S. declined and Iraq had to back away from the deal unless they wanted to be cut off from American intel. The bigger issuers here is that Iraq disagrees with the American ROE which puts more emphasis on protecting civilians than in destroying the enemy. ISIL uses lots of human shields to protect its men and facilities from air attack. Russia and Arab air forces will bomb a target even if there are human shields present. Another unspoken issue here is the high level of corruption in Iraq. The Russians, Iranians and other Arab states tolerate that while the West, and especially the Americans, do not. The Western experience is that, in the long term killing your own people and tolerating corruption does a nation more harm than good. Thus it is a cultural thing, with the leaders of Iraq, Iran, Russia and most other Arab states more concerned with the short term and thus more tolerant of what the West sees as self-destructive behavior. Soon Iraq realized that the Russians were in Syria mainly to keep the Assads in power and were doing little or nothing to hurt the Assads.

Turkey Has A ProblemMeanwhile Turkey continues to battle rebellious PKK Kurds in southeast Turkey and northern Iraq. The Kurdish government in northern Iraqi tolerates the Turkish air raids on PKK camps in remote areas and publicly denounces the PKK (although many Iraqi Kurds support the PKK goal of a Kurdish state formed from Kurdish populated parts of Iraq, Turkey, Iran and Syria). The PKK went to war with the Turks again in July and so far the Turks have arrested over 1,300 PKK members so far although most were later released. The Turkish army and air force have killed over 1,600 PKK members since July and lost nearly 20o troops and police.October 21, 2015: The Iraqi Kurds confirmed that they are ready to take part in an offensive to drive ISIL out of Mosul. The Kurds made it clear that they would concentrate on Mosul and not go after pro-ISIL Sunni tribes around Kirkuk, which is what the Iraqi government feared. The Kurds control Kirkuk and have made it clear they plan to keep it.





The Kurds have also made it clear that they consider Mosul Arab, not Kurdish like Kirkuk and have no plans to stick around after their forces have helped drive ISIL out.October 12, 2015: The government revealed that military and police reinforcements had been sent to Ramadi in Anbar in preparation for a major effort to drive ISIL out of the city.October 11, 2015: The government announced that its air force has attacked a convoy in Anbar (western Iraq) that was carrying ISIL leaders, including supreme leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi to a meeting near the Syrian border. At first Iraqi officials believed the airstrike had killed Baghdadi but later had to admit that while they did kill nine lesser ISIL leaders and many security personnel Baghdadi survived badly injured and was driven away for treatment. It is still unclear how badly hurt Baghdadi was.

Al Zawahir: "the road to Jerusalem passes through Cairo.Regards Cees a reminder: Zawahiri Aims at Israel: Behind Al Qaeda's Pivot to the LevantMatthew Levitt Foreign Affairs February 3, 2014

The latest terrorist plot against Israel may have resulted from a need to reassert al Qaeda's position among other jihadist groups, especially in Syria, but that doesn't make the threat of attacks against the West any less real.On January 22, Israeli officials announced that, several weeks before, they had disrupted what they described as an "advanced" al Qaeda terrorist plot in Israel. Although al Qaeda-inspired jihadists had targeted Israel before (three men who had plotted an attack near Hebron were killed in a shootout with police in November), this marked the first time that senior al Qaeda senior leaders were directly involved in such plans.That might seem somewhat surprising to casual observers, given Israel's place of pride in al Qaeda rhetoric over the years. Although the need to target Israel and Jews does feature prominently in the al Qaeda mythos, it has rarely translated into operational missions against Israel. And that is what makes this latest plot, which was traced back to al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri, so significant. Indeed, it speaks to a fear among al Qaeda's core leaders that the fight in the Levant -- particularly in Syria -- is passing them by.PLAN ON ITAccording to Israeli authorities, the recent plot began when Ariv al-Sham, a Gaza-based al Qaeda operative who worked for Zawahiri, recruited three men to take part in an attack -- two men from East Jerusalem and one from the West Bank. While it is unclear how Israeli security officials first came to know about the recruitments, which took place over Skype and Facebook, they apparently monitored these communications for a few months until they arrested all four in late December.Sham's primary recruit, the Israelis report, was 23-year-old Iyad Khalil Abu-Sara, from the Ras Hamis neighborhood in East Jerusalem. Abu-Sara reportedly volunteered to carry out a "sacrifice attack" on an Israeli bus traveling between Jerusalem and Ma'aleh Adumim. The plan was for gunmen to shoot out the bus' wheels and overturn it. After that, they would they would gun down the passengers at close range. Finally, they assumed, they would die in a firefight with police and first responders. Sham and Abu-Sara also sketched out simultaneous suicide bombings at a Jerusalem convention center, where a second suicide bomber would target emergency responders, and at the U.S. embassy in Tel Aviv, which would be carried out by five unnamed foreign terrorists who would travel to Israel as tourists with fake Russian passports. In preparation, Sham sent Abu-Sara computer files for a virtual bomb-making training course. Abu-Sara was to prepare the suicide vests and truck bombs, and to travel to Syria for training in combat and bomb-making. He had already purchased a ticket on a flight to Turkey by the time he was arrested.





Sham's other two recruits -- Rubin Abu-Nagma and Ala Ghanam -- were working with him on carrying out attacks on Israel as well. Abu-Nagma reportedly planned to kidnap an Israeli soldier from Jerusalem's central bus station and bomb a residential building in a Jewish neighborhood in East Jerusalem. He, too, learned to manufacture explosives online. Ghanam, who lived in a village near Jenin, a Palestinian city in the northern West Bank, was tasked with establishing a Salafi jihadi cell in the West Bank that would carry out future attacks.Israeli authorities were shocked by Zawahiri's involvement. He directly instructed Sham to carry out this plot. But perhaps even more surprising was how fast -- mere months in all -- the plot developed. "Abu-Sara and Al-Sham coordinated a trip to Syria, and money transfers. This all happened very quickly," a security official said. "All three channels formed at a fast rate."BEYOND RHETORICIsrael and the Palestinian cause have long been lightning rods for al Qaeda. In nearly every one of his public statements from 1990 to 2011, Osama bin Laden referenced the Palestinian cause. In 1994, he wrote a letter to the Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia entitled "The Betrayal of Palestine," taking issue with the Grand Mufti's endorsement of the Oslo Accords a year earlier. In his 1996 declaration of war against the West, bin Laden once more invoked the Palestinian cause to rally Muslims to fight "the American-Israeli" alliance. And in a 1998 fatwa, bin Laden, Zawahiri, and others called on Muslims to kill Americans and their allies -- civilians and military personnel alike -- and to liberate the al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem. Even 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed saw in the September 11 plot an opportunity to denounce Israel. In the original plans for the attack, he was reportedly tasked with hijacking a plane himself, landing it at an airport after nine other flights had been crashed, and giving a speech denouncing U.S. support for Israel, the Philippines, and repressive Arab governments.Although, until now, that rhetoric has rarely translated into actual operations against Israel, there have been some exceptions. Richard Reid, the British "shoe bomber," prepared for his 2002 mission by testing airline security on Israeli's El-Al airlines and scouting potential targets in Israel and Egypt. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed claims to have been involved in a variety of plots for attacks on Israel, including one in which planes from Saudi Arabia would enter Israeli airspace and crash into buildings in Eilat, Israel's southernmost city. The one part of his plan that succeeded was the November 2002 attack on the Israeli-owned Paradise Hotel in Mombasa, Kenya, which killed three Israelis and wounded 20 more. Similarly, long before Zarqawi became famous as the leader of al Qaeda, he had reportedly attempted to set up a terrorist cell to target Israel. By 2001, the Treasury Department reported, Zarqawi had received more than $35,000 for training Jordanian and Palestinian fighters in Afghanistan and facilitating their travel to the Levant. Zarqawi "received assurances that further financing would be provided for attacks against Israel," and according to some reports may have traveled to the Palestinian territories himself by 2002. But nothing came of it.These exceptions prove the rule: al Qaeda's plotting against Israel has never matched its anti-Israel propaganda. And that harks back to debates that raged between the group's future leaders in the waning days of the jihad against Russia in Afghanistan. Following the Soviet withdrawal in February 1989, bin Laden and Abdullah Azzam -- a West Bank Palestinian who served as chief ideologue of the Afghan jihad -- disagreed over where the jihadi fighters should go next. Bin Laden pointed to the United States, which supported Arab governments that were insufficiently Islamist and should be toppled and replaced with a new caliphate. In this, he followed Zawahiri and the Egyptian Islamists who long emphasized the imperative of toppling apostate Muslim regimes. Having turned away





from the Palestinian conflict because it had been dominated by secular militant groups, he now saw an opportunity to reinvigorate that struggle with Islamist underpinnings as the next jihadi front. Azzam was killed in a mysterious 1989 car bomb, and the rest is history.The al Qaeda senior leadership has generally not focused its operations on Israel, nor has it been particularly receptive to Gaza-based groups that have claimed to be affiliated with or inspired by al Qaeda. During the December 2008-January 2009 war in Gaza, al Qaeda expressed support for Palestinian fighters and denounced Arab states for failing help them, but stopped short of backing up its words with action. A few months later, in August 2009, when a Hamas raid on a Salafi jihadi mosque in Gaza ended in a gun battle that left some 24 dead and 130 wounded, al Qaeda leaders denounced Hamas and called on Allah "to avenge the blood of the murdered men and to destroy the Hamas state." Bin Laden and Zawahiri also called for jihad in Gaza, but al Qaeda still never recognized any of the Palestinian groups that took up its charge.WIN, LOSE, OR DRAWSo why the sudden change of course? Like bin Laden, Zawahiri, now leader of al Qaeda, has long placed targeting Israel farther down the operational totem pole than more immediate targets. In the 1990s, Zawahiri maintained, "the road to Jerusalem passes through Cairo." In other words, Palestine could be liberated only after illegitimate and insufficiently Islamic regimes in places such as Egypt were dealt with. Years later, in a letter to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq, Zawahiri would explain that targeting Israel was a "fourth stage" goal following (or coming at the same time as) the expulsion of Americans from Iraq, the establishment of an Islamic emirate there, and extending the jihad to secular countries neighboring Iraq.Well, al Qaeda's war in Iraq, once believed to have been defeated, is now on the rebound, thanks to the group's efforts next door in Syria. In one sense, then, the decision to target Israel could be seen as Zawahiri ticking off the boxes in his long-planned strategy.In another sense, though, the recent foiled plot has more to do with Zawahiri and other senior al Qaeda leaders' standing among other global jihadi groups. Events in Syria are quickly changing the nature of jihadi enterprise. Its epicenter is no longer Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, or Yemen, but the heart of the Levant -- al Sham -- in Syria. There, two al Qaeda affiliates -- ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra -- are fighting the Assad regime and its Shiite allies and more moderate Syrian rebels. The two groups have not merged, and only one (al-Nusra) has pledged allegiance to Zawahiri. Indeed, when Zawahiri instructed ISIS to focus on Iraq and leave the Syrian theatre to al-Nusra, ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi flatly refused. This week, Zawahiri responded in kind, blaming ISIS for "the enormity of the disaster that afflicted the Jihad in Syria" and disavowing its ties to al Qaeda. "ISIS," Zawahiri insisted, "is not a branch of al Qaeda and we have no organizational relationship with it."Meanwhile, other Islamist groups, such as Ahrar al-Sham, remain independent even as they share some ideological underpinnings with al Qaeda. Today, the jihadi centers that are drawing new recruits, donations, and foreign fighters are not run by al Qaeda. Knowing that, Zawahiri perhaps felt the need to be able to claim something big that jihadist fighters of all shapes and sizes could rally around. What better than an attack on Israel?Among those who study terrorism and political violence, a debate rages over the continued relevance and importance of the traditional al Qaeda core and other al Qaeda senior leadership. The debate was given new life by a flippant comment that President Barack Obama made in a New Yorker interview in which he lauded his administration's successful "decimating" of al Qaeda along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border and played down the





threat of al Qaeda franchises more focused on attacking their homelands than that of the United States. Obama compared such groups to a jayvee team -- not as dangerous as the varsity teams that carried out 9/11. As for that team, the State Department recently asserted that "the entire leadership been decimated by the U.S. counterterrorism efforts. [Zawahiri is] the only one left." At this point, a State Department spokesperson speculated, Zawahiri likely spends "more time worrying about his own personal security than propaganda, but still is interested in putting out this kind of propaganda to remain relevant."Zawahiri's plotting against Israel may well have resulted from a need to reassert his position among other jihadist groups, especially in Syria, but that doesn't mean that the threat of terrorism is less real. However one defines al Qaeda today -- as a singular group with a few close franchises, or as the sum of all franchises and decentralized parts -- it is clear from plots like this one that the West, including Israel, need beware.Matthew Levitt is the Fromer-Wexler Fellow and director of the Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at The Washington Institute.




Date post:	16-Feb-2017
Category:	Documents
Upload:	cees-de-waart
View:	237 times
Download:	0 times

Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-142-Caliphate-ISIS-27

Documents