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Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-142-Caliphate-ISIS-40

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C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-142-Caliphate-ISIS-40 ‘Too dumb’: Ex-US intelligence chief blames Iraq War, poor strategy for rise of ISIS Published time: 1 Dec, 2015 The former commander of US Special Forces in Afghanistan and Iraq said that without the Iraq war, the Islamic State wouldn’t exist today, according to the German newspaper Der Spiegel. He also blamed a poor emotional response to the 9/11 attacks. “First we went to Afghanistan, where Al-Qaeda was based, then we went to Iraq,” Flynn told the newspaper in an interview. “Instead of asking ourselves why the phenomenon of terror occurred, we were looking for locations. This is a major lesson we must learn in order not to make the same mistakes again.” General Flynn, who served in the US Army for more than 30 years, was stationed in Afghanistan and Iraq from 2004 to 2007. He said he regretted his role in the Iraq war and said the terrorist attacks on 9/11 led the US to create disastrous military polices. The US invaded Iraq after administration officials – including President George W. Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, and Secretary of State Colin Powell – presented false intelligence about Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction program and alleged links to Al-Qaeda. He also highlighted the consequences of toppling Middle Eastern dictators – a strategy that continued with President Barack Obama’s intervention in Libya. “It was huge error,” he continued. “As brutal as Saddam Hussein was, it was a mistake to just eliminate him. The same is true for Muammar Gaddafi and for Libya, which is now a failed state. The historic lesson is that it was a strategic failure to go into Iraq. History will not be and should not be kind with that decision.” Flynn said the US had Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the alleged head of the Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL), in the Camp Bucca detention center in February 2004 in Iraq, but he was cleared as harmless by a US military commission and released in December 2004. “We were too dumb. We didn’t understand who we had there at that The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. –Winston Churchill CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 1 of 24 26/03/2022
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Page 1: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-142-Caliphate-ISIS-40

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-142-Caliphate-ISIS-40

‘Too dumb’: Ex-US intelligence chief blames Iraq War, poor strategy for rise of ISISPublished time: 1 Dec, 2015 The former commander of US Special Forces in Afghanistan and Iraq said that without the Iraq war, the Islamic State wouldn’t exist today, according to the German newspaper Der Spiegel. He also blamed a poor emotional response to the 9/11 attacks.

“First we went to Afghanistan, where Al-Qaeda was based, then we went to Iraq,” Flynn told the newspaper in an interview. “Instead of asking ourselves why the phenomenon of terror occurred, we were looking for locations. This is a major lesson we must learn in order not to make the same mistakes again.”

General Flynn, who served in the US Army for more than 30 years, was stationed in Afghanistan and Iraq from 2004 to 2007. He said he regretted his role in the Iraq war and said the terrorist attacks on 9/11 led the US to create disastrous military polices. The US invaded Iraq after administration officials – including President George W. Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, and Secretary of State Colin Powell – presented false intelligence about Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction program and alleged links to Al-Qaeda.He also highlighted the consequences of toppling Middle Eastern dictators – a strategy that continued with President Barack Obama’s intervention in Libya.

“It was huge error,” he continued. “As brutal as Saddam Hussein was, it was a mistake to just eliminate him. The same is true for Muammar Gaddafi and for Libya, which is now a failed state. The historic lesson is that it was a strategic failure to go into Iraq. History will not be and should not be kind with that decision.”

Flynn said the US had Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the alleged head of the Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL), in the Camp Bucca detention center in February 2004 in Iraq, but he was cleared as harmless by a US military commission and released in December 2004.

“We were too dumb. We didn’t understand who we had there at that moment. When 9/11 occurred, all the emotions took over, and our response was, ‘Where did those bastards come from? Let’s go kill them. Let’s go get them,’” said Flynn. “Instead of asking why they attacked us, we asked where they came from. Then we strategically marched in the wrong direction.”

Before his retirement, Flynn served as director of the Defense Intelligence Agency and as an assistant director of national intelligence inside the Obama administration. He added that the shift to international operations – such as attacks in Paris, Lebanon, Mali, and the attack on a Russian airliner in Egypt – show that Islamic State has a developed structure in place.

“There were all kinds of strategic and tactical warnings and lots of reporting. And even the guys in the Islamic State said they were going to attack overseas. I just don’t think people took them seriously,” Flynn told Spiegel. “…The change that I think we need to be more aware of is that, in Europe, there is a leadership structure. And there’s likely a leader or a leadership structure in each country in Europe. The same is probably similar for the United States, but just not obvious yet.”

Flynn said that in Osama Bin Laden’s writings, the Al-Qaeda leader described how the terror group was becoming more dispersed, more diffuse, and operating in smaller units.

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

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Flynn said the difference between Al-Qaeda and IS is the number of fighters they command, where they come from, and how they are attracting fighters. Al-Qaeda at its peak was recruiting about 150 fighters a month from a dozen countries, whereas IS is bringing in 1,500 fighters from 100 nations, and using digital communication “to strengthen the attraction of their ideology.”

Flynn thinks airstrikes alone won’t succeed and troops on the ground are inevitable. The overall strategy should be to take away IS territory by hunting down its leaders, blocking their financial operations, and creating a cooperative plan with stakeholders like Russia and the United Nations. He said it would take years to do so, but once security and stability is brought to the area, it will be possible to bring back the refugees.

The leaked Islamic State document sets out a blueprint for a building a stateShiv Malik, Monday 7 December 2015 The Isis papers: leaked documents show how Isis is building its stateBlueprint lays bare new contours of Islamic state, complete with civil service, regional government and Soviet levels of economic control. A leaked internal Islamic State manual shows how the terrorist group has set about building a state in Iraq and Syria complete with government departments, a treasury and an economic programme for self-sufficiency, the Guardian can reveal.The 24-page document, obtained by the Guardian, sets out a blueprint for establishing foreign relations, a fully fledged propaganda operation, and centralised control over oil, gas and the other vital parts of the economy.

The manual, written last year and entitled Principles in the administration of the Islamic State, lays bare Isis’s state-building aspirations and the ways in which it has managed to set itself apart as the richest and most destabilising jihadi group of the past 50 years.

Islamic State blueprint

Together with other documents obtained by the Guardian, it builds up a picture of a group that, although sworn to a founding principle of brutal violence, is equally set on more mundane matters such as health, education, commerce, communications and jobs. In short, it is building a state. As western aircraft step up their aerial war on Isis targets in Syria, the implication is that the military task is not simply one of battlefield arithmetic. Isis is already far more than the sum of its fighters.The document – written as a foundation text to train “cadres of administrators” in the months after Isis’s leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, declared a “caliphate” in Iraq and Syria on 28 June 2014 – sketches out how to organise government departments including education, natural resources, industry, foreign relations, public relations and military camps.

The Isis papers: a masterplan for consolidating power. Dated some time between July and October 2014, it details how Isis

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

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will build separate training camps for regular troops and veteran fighters. Veterans, it says, should go on a fortnight’s refresher course each year to receive instruction in the “latest arts of using weapons, military planning and military technologies”.

It says they will also be given a “detailed commentary on the technologies” of the enemy and “how the soldiers of the state can take advantage of them”.

The statecraft manual recommends a department for administering the military camps, a complex arrangement that, as described, goes well beyond the capabilities of al-Qaida in Afghanistan during the time it plotted the 9/11 attacks.

The document reveals for the first time that Isis always intended to train children in the arts of war. Isis propaganda from this year has clearly shown children being drilled, and even made to shoot captives.

But the text, authored by an Egyptian called Abu Abdullah, is explicit about the intention to do so from mid- to late 2014. Children, it says, will be receive “training on bearing light arms” and “outstanding individuals” will be “selected from them for security portfolio assignments, including checkpoints, patrols”.The text highlights the need for Isis to achieve a unified culture encompassing foreigners and natives and sets out the need for self-sufficiency by establishing its own independent “factories for local military and food production” and creating “isolated safe zones” for providing for local needs.The document came from a businessman working within Isis via the academic researcher Aymenn al-Tamimi, who has worked over the past year to compile the most thorough log of Isis documents available to the public. For safety reasons, the Guardian cannot reveal further information about the businessman but he has leaked nearly 30 documents in all, including a financial statement from one of Isis’s largest provinces. Isis has suffered military setbacks in recent weeks, and some Sunni Arabs from Raqqa have indicated that its statecraft might be better on paper than it is in practice.But Tamimi said the playbook, along with a further 300 Isis documents he has obtained over the past year, showed that building a viable country rooted in fundamentalist theology was the central aim.

“[Isis] is a project that strives to govern. It’s not just a case of their sole end being endless battle.”

Gen Stanley McChrystal (retired), who led the military units that helped destroy Isis’s predecessor organisation (ISI) in Iraq from 2006 to 2008, said: “If it is indeed genuine, it is fascinating and should be read by everyone – particularly policymakers in the west.

Gen Stanley McChrystal: ‘If the west sees Isis as an almost stereotypical band of psychopathic killers, we risk dramatically underestimating them.’ Photograph: Jerry Lampen/Reuters.

“In the Principles in the administration of the Islamic State, you see a focus on education (really indoctrination) beginning with children but progressing through their ranks, a recognition that effective governance is essential, thoughts on their use of technology to

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

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master information (propaganda), and a willingness to learn from the mistakes of earlier movements.

“It’s not a big departure from the works of Mao, the practices of the Viet Minh in Indochina, or other movements for whom high-profile actions were really just the tip of a far more nuanced iceberg of organising activity.

Charlie Winter, a senior researcher for Georgia State University who has seen the document, said it demonstrated Isis’s high capacity for premeditation. “Far from being an army of irrational, bloodthirsty fanatics, IS [Isis] is a deeply calculating political organisation with an extremely complex, well-planned infrastructure behind it.”Lt Gen Graeme Lamb, former head of UK special forces, said the playbook carried a warning for current military strategy. Referring to sections of the statecraft text in which Isis repeatedly claims it is the only true representatives of Sunni Arab Muslims in the region, Lamb said it was all the more important to ensure wider Sunni leadership in the fight with Isis, or risk “fuelling this monster”.“Seeing Daesh [Isis] and the caliphate as simply a target to be systematically broken by forces other than Middle Eastern Sunnis … is to fail to understand this fight. “It must be led by the Sunni Arab leadership and its many tribes across the region, with us in the west and the other religious factions in the Middle East acting in support. “It is not currently how we are shaping the present counter-Isis campaign, thereby setting ourselves up for potential failure.”

Armed to the teeth: Amnesty slams US & allies for weapons falling into ISIS’ handsPublished time: 8 Dec, 2015 Islamic State’s campaign of terror in Iraq and Syria is being aided by the weapons indirectly supplied by the very countries trying to fight them, with the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 giving the terrorist group access to “a large and lethal arsenal.”The claims were made in a study by Amnesty International, entitled ‘Taking Stock: The arming of Islamic State,’ which was released on Tuesday. Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) acquired most of its munitions by raiding weapons depots of the Iraqi government army. However, the capture of weapons on the battlefield, defections and an illicit trade have helped to keep their supplies well-stocked.

“Risks need to be far more carefully calculated, and we shouldn’t wait for this worst case scenario to happen before acting to prevent sales of arms which could fuel atrocities.”

Among the advanced weaponry in the IS arsenal are man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS), guided anti-tank missiles and armored fighting vehicles, as well as assault rifles like the Russian and Chinese-produced Kalashnikov series and the US M16 and Bushmaster, the report states.

“The vast and varied weaponry being used by the armed group calling itself Islamic State is a textbook case of how reckless arms trading fuels atrocities on a massive scale,” said Patrick Wilcken, researcher on Arms Control, Security Trade and Human Rights at Amnesty International.

“Poor regulation and lack of oversight of the immense arms flows into Iraq going back decades have given IS and other armed groups a bonanza of unprecedented access to firepower,” he added.

However, it seems Washington is refusing to learn from its past mistakes. Between 2011 and 2013, the US signed billions of dollars' worth of arms contracts with the Iraqi government, and by 2014 it had delivered more than $500 million worth of small arms and ammunition.

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

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Congress also passed a bill in December 2014 giving the green light to $64 billion in funding for overseas war ventures in countries such as Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. However, the White House was left with its tail between its legs after a $500 million program to train ‘moderate’ rebels ended in abject failure, with just a handful of fighters making the grade.Even more disastrous was the fact that a stockpile of weapons given to the US-trained rebels ended up in the hands of terrorists, after the so-called ‘moderates’ willingly handed it over to groups such as Al-Nusra Front soon after crossing into Syria.

“My concern from the beginning was that we were going to end up unwittingly aiding and abetting terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda,” Chris Murphy, a Democrat from Connecticut, told Sputnik news agency in October, adding: “I am sorry that my concern turned out to be true.”

Sunjeev Bery, the advocacy director for Middle East North Africa at Amnesty International USA was equally scathing, saying,

“In its rush to ‘degrade and destroy’ the Islamic State armed group, the Obama administration must not trample its international human rights obligations,” while also adding that this was “simply opening the floodgates” to put more weapons into the hands of armed groups who have “committed serious human rights abuses in both Iraq and Syria.”

December 4, 2015 Special Dispatch No.6233'Abd Al-Rahman Al-Rashed: Extremist Islam Is Like Nazism; The Way To Eliminate It Is To Go After Its Ideology

In a November 22 article, prominent Saudi journalist 'Abd Al-Rahman Al-Rashed, the former editor of  the London-based daily Al-Sharq Al-Awsat and former director of Al-Arabiya TV, writes that terrorism cannot be eliminated by taking out its leaders, for new ones always emerge in their stead. Nor can it be eliminated by withdrawing from territories, such as the American withdrawal from Iraq, which was supposed to bring an end to the terrorism against its forces there. Rather, says Al-Rashed, the effective way to fight terrorism is to combat the extremist ideology on which it is based. He stresses that the people who spread the ideology – such as preachers, media personalities and teachers – are more dangerous than terror leaders like bin Laden, for they are capable of producing new terror leaders and organization when the old ones are eliminated.Al-Rashed notes that, following World War II, the Europeans went to extremes to ban Nazi ideology; they prohibited teaching it or marketing it and excluded anyone associated with it from the public arena. He argues that today's extremist Islam resembles Nazism in many

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

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ways, for it too is fascist and based on blind faith in an ideology and on extreme hatred and hostility towards others. Hence, similar measures should be taken against it as well. Al-Rashed argued in the same vein in an article from May, 2015, in which he likewise drew a parallel between religious extremism and Nazism. He noted that, just as Western democracies, which normally safeguard freedom of expression, felt the need to make an exception of Nazism and banned the movement, Saudi Arabia is equally justified in banning religious extremism.

The following are excerpts from English translations of both articles that appeared on the Al-Arabiya website.Terrorism Is Not About Leaders Or Their Motives But About Ideology And Those Who Spread ItIn his November 22, 2015 article, Al-Rashed wrote: "In May 2011, millions of people across the world witnessed the end of al-Qaeda organization, or to be more accurate, the end of the organization's leader, Osama bin Laden, who was killed during a skillful intelligence operation. Bin Laden's body was wrapped in sheets and iron chains and buried at sea. Whatever he had symbolized also ended with his death, and al-Qaeda, which had terrified the world, was also buried with him. All significant figures within the organization were either killed or detained [as well]..."What was believed to be a motive behind terrorism – the U.S. military presence in Iraq – was also believed to have come to an end when [the U.S.] withdrew."I think the problem here is related to diagnosing the initial problem. Terrorism was neither about leaders or their motives but about an ideology motivated by preachers, media personalities, teachers and strong believers in extremism, who are more dangerous than Bin Laden and Zarqawi. These people are capable of producing alternative leaderships and organizations, under different slogans and in different areas. They invented Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as an alternative to Bin Laden, and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) as an alternative to al-Qaeda. Syria has become a new battlefield and Bin Laden's videos were replaced by taking to Twitter, Facebook and WhatsApp. They have become more dangerous."The war has gone back to square one, [but] terrorists nowadays are distinguished from their predecessors. [The organizations] have now not only grown in size but also have more experts and are more influential. They brought down a Russian plane using a bomb estimated to contain 1 kilogram of explosives and carried out a series of terrorist attacks in Paris. A terror branch in Nigeria crossed the borders to Mali and seized a hotel taking hostages. Then ISIS claimed it executed a Chinese hostage and threatened the United States with imminent operations. All these terrorist acts which horrified the world were committed in less than a month.""Today's Extremist Islam Is Also Fascist, And It Resembles Nazism, Which Is Based On The Concepts Of Discrimination And Elimination""I think there is a number of mistakes when it comes to understanding [the] “new” terrorism.

The first mistake is believing that a terrorist organization collapses with the murder of its leaders.

The second is believing that declared excuses are the motive for terrorism - particularly by linking these excuses to liberation plans of the past; for example, claiming that the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq would bring about an [end to] terrorism. Historically speaking, al-Qaeda was born six years before the Iraq invasion and it further expanded after the U.S. withdrawal.

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

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"The third mistake is believing that the solution is to withdraw from crisis areas, like what happened in Vietnam. The U.S. withdrew its troops from Iraq and refused to enter Syria.

The fourth mistake is getting involved in the sectarian game by supporting Shiites or Sunnis against one another.

The fifth and most important mistake is taking a lenient approach to extremist ideologies, which is a major problem and the source of the power of terrorism."After Adolf Hitler committed suicide and following the burning of his body, the war's winners did not just raise the flag of victory over Berlin but they also banned Nazi ideology. They prohibited teaching it or marketing it and also prevented those who are in any way related to it from practicing any social activities. "Today's extremist Islam is also fascist, and it resembles Nazism which is based on the concepts of discrimination and elimination. Like Nazism, extremist Islam is based on absolute loyalty to an ideology and to hatred and hostility against others, whether Muslims or not. If you want to eliminate al-Qaeda, ISIS and al-Nusra Front, you have to go after the ideology. Without doing so, we can expect the next century to be filled with anarchy and terrorism."[1]

"In The Middle East, Our Version Of Nationalist Fascism Is Religious Extremism, Which Is Just As Dangerous And Destructive"In his May 28, 2015 article, Al-Rashed wrote: "It is not a coincidence that in some Western countries, whose constitutions clearly stipulate protecting freedom of expression and partisanship, Nazism is exceptionally banned in belief and in practice, and those who violate this law are punished. This is not hypocrisy or a retreat from respecting freedoms. Nazism is banned because it is an extremist, fascist, nationalist ideology that represents a direct threat to the nation. Its bloody history is modern, and its fire still burns under the ashes. Extremist ideas are present everywhere, but since Nazi extremism is very dangerous, liberal countries that believe most in freedoms have decided not to tolerate it.

"In the Middle East, our version of nationalist fascism is religious extremism, which is just as dangerous and destructive... "Nazis believe in elevating the white race above all others. Nazism caused the destruction of Europe, with 60 million people killed. After this disaster, the majority took it upon itself not to allow this extremist ideology to dominate in their societies. One can be religious, patriotic and nationalistic without being committed to eliminating others.

"We fear that we are at the beginning of the road to destruction in our region by allowing extremists to impose their agendas on society... Confronting these groups is everyone’s responsibility. Governments have major duties to fulfill, their core task being to provide protection from the evils of extremist groups that operate across borders...

"Extremists have succeeded at confusing people’s perceptions of what is just and unjust, and of who is friend or foe. They are also trying to divide people by categorizing them by sect, ethnicity, good and evil, to the extent of strengthening the idea of alternative identities to love of one’s country, which is supposed to come before one’s tribe and sect, and where everyone should have the same rights and duties."

"Amid this poisonous atmosphere, the [nation] state has become the most threatened, not groups and minorities, as some think. Destroying the civil ladder and dividing societies harms the backbone of the state, its structure, [whereas] persecuted groups always survive, no matter how besieged, pursued and displaced they are. States have collapsed, but these groups have survived throughout the centuries.

"Dangerous extremism is expanding, and it requires serious restraints. It is not acceptable for a university teacher, mosque preacher or ministry employee to incite against

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

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certain social [sectors], as the government is responsible for such acts because they employ these people.

"The government itself refuses to be betrayed and punishes whoever violates its laws. Those extremists, whether they know it or not, are destroying the structure from its base. They are more dangerous to society than foreign enemies, who fail when people are united and succeed when there are domestic disputes and divisions.

"What [obligates us to make] a law that criminalizes racism and sectarianism is the collective stance of clerics, intellectuals and social leaders who voiced support for unity and considered last week’s suicide bombing at a Shiite mosque in the Saudi town of Al-Qadeeh as an attack against all of them. Dozens of writers, thinkers, and people with a clear conscience wrote in condemnation of the attack. This was the biggest solidarity campaign Saudi Arabia has ever known. The king’s statement against extremism has encouraged them to voice their condemnation. These strong manifestations have disproved extremists’ claims about their popularity and influence, and confirmed that the state can lead a project to eliminate extremism before it rots society’s strongest pillar: its youth." [2]Endnotes:[1] English.alarabiya.net, November 23, 2015. The Arabic article appeared in the London daily Al-Sharq Al-Awsat on November 22.[2] English.alarabiya.net, May 28, 2015. The Arabic article appeared the same day in the London daily Al-Sharq Al-Awsat.

Research on the Islamic State, Syria, and Iraq. by Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimivarious publicationsSeptember 1–September 30, 2015Jawad al-Tamimi traces the transformation of a "moderate" Islamist, ostensibly pro-democracy Syrian militia into an affiliate of ISIS (see below), a process that necessitated a change in logo. Can you tell which is which?

Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi, a Middle East Forum research fellow, writes extensively about the Islamic State (also known as ISIS) and other armed groups in Syria and Iraq. As his writings and translations tend to be too detailed for a general readership, we periodically compile links and summaries for those wishing to learn about the groundbreaking work of this prolific researcher.For more general interest writings by Jawad al-Tamimi, click here.ArticlesOverview of Some Pro-Assad Militias (Sep. 1)Syria CommentAn in-depth examination of five pro-regime Syrian militias not yet profiled by the author (see his previous profiles of the Muqawama Suriya, the Coastal Shield Brigade and Dir' al-Watan). They are Liwa Suqur al-Quneitra, based in regime-held parts of Quneitra governorate; Liwa al-Quds, a Palestinian militia operating in the Aleppo area; Jaysh al-Tahrir al-Falastini, a Palestinian militia that has fought on numerous fronts; Nusur al-Zawba'a, the militia of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP); and Katibat al-Jabal (The Mountain Battalion), a primarily defensive militia in Latakia province.The Assassination of Sheikh Abu Fahad al-Bal'ous: Context and Analysis (Sep. 5)Syria CommentJawad al-Tamimi examines the September 4 assassination of Sheikh Abu Fahad Waheed al-Bal'ous, a Druze militia leader he characterizes as having been "critical of the regime but not desiring to overthrow it." The killing came in the wake of anti-corruption protests in predominantly Druze Suwayda province targeting its pro-regime governor.

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

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Liwa Thuwar al-Raqqa: History, Analysis & Interview (Sep. 14)Syria CommentAn in-depth study of Liwa Thuwar al-Raqqa, a Syrian Sunni nationalist militia that formed in Raqqa province in 2012. After being expelled from Raqqa city by IS in early 2014, Liwa Thuwwar al-Raqqa moved into the countryside and became "an uneasy, junior partner" of the Kurdish YPG militia.Liwa Shuhada' al-Yarmouk: History and Analysis (Sep. 18)Examination of Liwa Shuhada' al-Yarmouk, a Syrian Sunni militia operating primarily in southwest Deraa province. Jawad al-Tamimi traces its evolution from a moderate religious-nationalist force nominally advocating democracy in 2012 to an affiliate of IS today.Jaysh al-Muhajireen wa al-Ansar's Allegiance to Jabhat al-Nusra (Sep. 27)Jihad IntelTranslation and analysis of a statement from Jaysh al-Muhajireen wa al-Ansar ("Army of the Emigrants and the Helpers"), a jihadist group in Syria linked to the Caucasus Emirate, pledging allegiance to Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda.

Repentance: Financial Income for the Islamic State (Sep. 28)Jawad al-Tamimi examines the system by which IS grants repentance (tawba) to former police officers, civil servants, ex-members of rival militias, and others in areas it takes over militarily. In addition to enabling IS to coopt the personnel of existing institutions, there is a financial benefit, as IS charges exorbitant fees for undergoing the process of reeducation. Includes translation of testimony by pro-IS source Omar Fawaz of Mosul.TranslationsUnseen Islamic State Fatwas on Jihad and Sabaya (Sep. 25)JihadologyAn extraordinary collection of 27 IS fatwa translations - i, hitherto unavailable in English. They cover subjects ranging from spoils of war ("the mujahid who seizes them is to take them or be recompensed in the event that [IS] needs them") to fleeing from battle ("it is forbidden to flee from the ranks except [when] maneuvering for fighting [or] joining another contingent."). A must-read for anyone researching IS.

Cole Bunzel suggests that these fatwas are likely written by a functionary at the provincial level, "regurgitating" what he knows to be the "judgments of the greater Diwan." I deem this hypothesis to be plausible: unlike previous fatwa specimens we have observed, the documents are concise, devoid of elaborate citations and bear their own numbering and provincial "Wilayat al-Raqqa" marking. In this regard, the fatwas are perhaps intended for lower-rank or newly joined IS members who missed out on/do not have access to many of the earlier fatwas issued in the name of the greater Diwan.Update (29 September): Stylistically, one observation may further support Bunzel's suggestion on the identity of composition of the fatwas. Consider Specimen L: the most reasonable understanding of this fatwa is that no green light has been given by IS to take the women of the apostates as sabaya because they may not realize the apostasy of their husbands, but in the past some of the 'ulama had allowed it on the basis that the women of the apostates are guilty of disbelief and apostasy if they do not abandon their husbands as (by implied reasoning) they should presumably know of their husbands' apostasy and disbelief (a marriage between two Muslims is supposed to become invalid if one of the partners apostasises and does not repent, necessitating separation).Grammatically, though, the fatwa makes some errors in using masculine third person

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

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plural forms for verb and possessive pronoun when they should be feminine third person plural (lam yatruku- 'they have not abandoned'- when it should be lam yatrukna, and azwajahum- 'their husbands/spouses'- when it should be azwajahunna, and likewise re.jahlihim- 'their ignorance/not knowing').Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi is a research fellow at Middle East Forum's Jihad Intel project.

Regards Cees ***: Specimen B: Imam's Permission to Wage Jihadal-Buhuth and al-Eftaa' CommitteeWilayat al-Raqqaal-Eftaa' CentreJihad and its rulingsNo. 12Q: Is the Imam's permission required for jihad in the path of God?A: Ibn Qudama, may God have mercy on him, said: "And the order for jihad is entrusted to the Imam and his reasoning, so one must be sure to obey him in what he considers from that." The Imam's permission serves to prevent the chaos that may arise from the announcement by some of the Muslims of war on the enemies of God without reckoning their circumstances, their own force and the force of their enemy. And in the present circumstances, it is allowed to disregard all governors of affairs in the event of hindering the jihad, as is the case of the 'ulama of the taghut today who have forbidden jihad out of fear of their sultans.Similarly we see many families who fear for their children to venture on jihad and killing in the path of raising the banner of the Caliphate. But their agreement or listening to them are not validated as consultation for going out in the path, and a mother's rage, ruling prevention or any hindrance from jihad in the path of God in the forms that God has mandated is not valid. But it is not allowed to attack the land of disbelief without an amir's order or consultation of the Dawla [IS], for defensive jihad is valid in every state and situation, while offensive jihad is not validated by an order without the wali's order for the Muslims.

Specimen A: Purpose of Jihadal-Buhuth and al-Eftaa' CommitteeWilayat al-Raqqaal-Eftaa' CentreJihad and its rulingsNo. 11Q: What is the goal of jihad and why do we wage jihad?A: The principle aim of jihad is to make people worship God alone, and move people away from servitude to men towards servitude to the Lord of men. God Almighty has said: "And fight them until there is no more fitna and religion is for God, and if they cease, there is no enmity except upon the wrongdoers" [Qur'an 2:193].And Ibn Jubayr said: "So fight them until there is no shirk, and only God alone is worshipped with no partner for Him, and thus affliction is removed from the servants of God from the Earth (i.e. fitna) and religion is wholly for God, and obedience and servitude will be wholly pure without any besides Him."The Almighty has ordered to fight the kuffar until there is no more fitna- i.e. shirk- and religion is for God- i.e. it is the religion of God, prevailing over the other religions. And SAWS said: "I was sent before the Hour with the sword so that God alone should be

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

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worshipped, with no partner for Him.– Repulsing the aggressors against the Muslims.– Removing fitna from the people.– And the fitna is of multiple types:– First: what the disbelievers deal in regarding forms of torture and stranglehold on the Muslims so that they apostasise from their religion.– Second: fitna of the disbelievers themselves and their refusal to listen to and accept the truth.– Protecting the Islamic State from the evil of the disbelievers.– Terrorising the disbelievers, subjugating them and humiliating them.

– Exposing the munafiqeen [hypocrites] and testing the believers regarding their sins.

–Specimen G: Allegiance to the Caliphal-Buhuth and al-Eftaa' CommitteeWilayat al-Raqqaal-Eftaa' CentreJihad and its rulingsNo. 17Q: Is allegiance to another caliph allowed?A: Allegiance to one caliph only is allowed. The Messenger of God (SAWS) said: "If there is allegiance to two caliphs, kill the second of the two of them." So allegiance to a caliph is not allowed in the event that there already exists a caliph for the Muslims even if he is weak. And allegiance to the caliph is required among the Ahl al-Hal wa al-'Aqd among the people of consultation for jihad and Islam.And if one of them were to appoint a caliph upon us after the Caliphate of Sheikh Abu Omar [sic: Bakr] al-Baghdadi- may God protect him- we would fight him upon it with swords because he has split the ranks of the Muslims. And the Caliphate is transferred to another person in the event of the caliph's resignation for health reasons and the like or his death. And in that case consultation is carried out in the council of al-Hal wa al-'Aqd for a caliph for the Muslims.

Specimen D: Fleeing from Battleal-Buhuth and al-Eftaa' CommitteeWilayat al-Raqqaal-Eftaa' CentreJihad and its rulingsNo. 14Q: What is the ruling on fleeing from battle?A: Muslims have been obliged to remain steadfast in battle against the enemies of the Ummah. And steadfastness has been required in every battle to defend the walls of the Islamic State. And when the two armies meet, it is forbidden to flee from the ranks except in two states:Manoeuvring for fighting, and joining another contingent.God Almighty has said: "Oh you who believe, when you meet those who disbelieve marching, don't turn your backs on them [to flee], and whoever does this on such a day, unless manoeuvring for fighting or joining another contingent, will return incurring God's anger, and his fate will be Hellfire, and evil it is as a destination" [Qur'an 8:15-6].It is only allowed in these two states for the fighter to withdraw from battle. In all other

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

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circumstances, all who flee from encountering the enemy will be killed, out of fear of the dispersing of the Muslim army, its defeat and weakening of morale for the soldiers.Notes: cf. This report in late August of IS executing 8 members in Tel Afar for fleeing from battle.

Regards Cees ***

Iraq: ‘Islamic State’ atrocities fuelled by decades of reckless arms trading8 December 2015, Decades of poorly regulated arms flows into Iraq as well as lax controls on the ground have provided the armed group calling itself Islamic State (IS) with a large and lethal arsenal that is being used to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity on a massive scale in Iraq and Syria, Amnesty International said in a new report today.Drawing on expert analysis of thousands of verified videos and images, Taking Stock: The arming of Islamic State catalogues how IS fighters are using arms, mainly looted from Iraqi military stocks, which were manufactured and designed in more than two dozen countries, including Russia, China the USA and EU states. “The vast and varied weaponry being used by the armed group calling itself Islamic State is a textbook case of how reckless arms trading fuels atrocities on a massive scale,” said Patrick Wilcken, Researcher on Arms Control, Security Trade and Human Rights at Amnesty International. The vast and varied weaponry being used by the armed group calling itself Islamic State is a textbook case of how reckless arms trading fuels atrocities on a massive scale.Patrick Wilcken, Researcher on Arms Control, Security Trade and Human Rights at Amnesty International“Poor regulation and lack of oversight of the immense arms flows into Iraq going back decades have given IS and other armed groups a bonanza of unprecedented access to firepower.” After taking control of Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, in June 2014, IS fighters acquired a windfall of internationally manufactured arms from Iraqi stockpiles. They included US-manufactured weapons and military vehicles, which they used to take control of other parts of the country, with devastating consequences for the civilian population in those areas. The vast array of weapon types captured and illicitly acquired have enabled IS to carry out a horrific campaign of abuse. Summary killings, rape, torture, abduction and hostage-taking – often carried out at gunpoint – have forced hundreds of thousands to flee and become internally displaced persons (IDPs) or refugees.

Dizzying array of arms The range and scope of IS’s arsenal reflects decades of irresponsible arms transfers to Iraq. This has been compounded by multiple failures to manage arms imports and to put in place oversight mechanisms to avoid improper end uses during the US-led occupation after 2003. Likewise, lax controls over military stockpiles and endemic corruption by successive Iraqi governments have added to the problem.The report documents IS use of arms and ammunition from at least 25 different countries, though a large proportion were originally sourced by the Iraqi military from the USA, Russia and former Soviet bloc states. These arms flows were funded variously by oil barter arrangements, Pentagon contracts and NATO donations. The bulk have been seized from or leaked out of Iraqi military stocks. Among the advanced weaponry in the IS arsenal are man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS), guided anti-tank missiles and

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

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armoured fighting vehicles, as well as assault rifles like the Russian AK series and the US M16 and Bushmaster.Most of the conventional weapons being used by IS fighters date from the 1970s to the 1990s, including pistols, handguns and other small arms, machine guns, anti-tank weapons, mortars and artillery. Soviet Union-era Kalashnikov-style rifles are commonplace, mainly from Russian and Chinese manufacturers. “This shows again that arms export risk assessments and mitigation measures to unstable regions require a long term, root-and-branch analysis. This must include assessing if military and security units are capable of effectively controlling stockpiles and abide by international human rights and humanitarian standards,” said Patrick Wilcken.IS fighters and other armed groups have also resorted to forging their own improvised weaponry in crude workshops. Examples include mortars and rockets, improvised hand grenades, explosive devices (IEDs) including car bombs and booby-traps, and even repurposed cluster munitions, an internationally banned weapon. In some instances IEDs constitute landmines prohibited by the global Mine Ban Treaty.

Supply chains. Taking Stock covers Iraq’s lengthy history of arms proliferation and the complex supply chains that most likely brought some of the more recent weapons into IS hands. The Iraqi army’s stockpile swelled in the late 1970s and early 1980s, especially around the Iran-Iraq war. This was a seminal moment in the development of the modern global arms market, when at least 34 different countries supplied Iraq with weapons – 28 of those same states were also simultaneously supplying arms to Iran. Meanwhile Iraq’s then-President Saddam Hussein oversaw the development of a robust national arms industry producing small arms, mortar and artillery shells.After Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, a UN arms embargo decreased imports until 2003, but during and after the US-led invasion Iraq was again flooded with more weapon imports. Many of these never adequately secured and audited by the US-led coalition forces and the reconstituted Iraqi armed forces. Hundreds of thousands of those weapons went missing and are still unaccounted for.More recent efforts to rebuild and re-equip the Iraqi army and associated forces have once again resulted in a massive arms flow into Iraq. Between 2011 and 2013, the USA signed billions of dollars’ worth of contracts for 140 M1A1 Abrams tanks, F16 fighter aircraft, 681 Stinger shoulder held units, Hawk anti-aircraft batteries, and other equipment. By 2014, the USA had delivered more than US$500 million worth of small arms and ammunition to the Iraqi government.Endemic corruption in the Iraqi military, as well as weak controls in place on military stockpiles and tracking weapons, meant there was an ongoing high risk of such weapons being diverted to armed groups including IS.

Preventing arms proliferation States can learn from the successive failures of the past and take urgent steps to curb future arms proliferation in Iraq, Syria and other unstable countries and regions.Amnesty International is calling on all states to adopt a complete embargo on Syrian government forces, as well as those armed opposition groups implicated in committing war crimes, crimes against humanity and other serious human rights abuses. 

They must also adopt a “presumption of denial” rule on arms exports to Iraq, meaning that transfers could only be carried out after strict risk assessments. Military or police units in

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

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Iraq which are singled out for exceptions must first demonstrate that they stringently and consistently respect international human rights and humanitarian law and that they have the necessary control mechanisms in place to ensure weapons will not be diverted to armed groups.Also, any state considering potential arms transfers to armed forces in Iraq must first invest heavily in pre- and post-delivery controls, training and monitoring that meet international standards for the management and use of such arms. All states that have not yet done so should accede to or ratify the global Arms Trade Treaty immediately. One of the treaty’s objectives is “to prevent and eradicate the illicit trade in conventional arms and prevent their diversion”. The treaty also contains provisions which aim to stop arms transfers where there is an overriding risk they could be used for serious international human rights or humanitarian law violations.The legacy of arms proliferation and abuse in Iraq and the surrounding region has already destroyed the lives and livelihoods of millions of people and poses an ongoing threat. The consequences of reckless arms transfers to Iraq and Syria and their subsequent capture by IS must be a wake-up call to arms exporters around the world. Patrick Wilcken

“The legacy of arms proliferation and abuse in Iraq and the surrounding region has already destroyed the lives and livelihoods of millions of people and poses an ongoing threat. The consequences of reckless arms transfers to Iraq and Syria and their subsequent capture by IS must be a wake-up call to arms exporters around the world,” said Patrick Wilcken. The report states how, after capturing Iraq’s second largest city Mosul in 2014, IS terrorists were able to acquire “a windfall of internationally manufactured arms from Iraqi stockpiles, including US-manufactured weapons and military vehicles.” The terrorist group was quick to show off the captured loot as they paraded the hardware on social media. “Decades of free-flowing arms into Iraq meant that when IS took control of these areas, they were like children in a sweetshop. The fact that countries including the UK have ended up inadvertently arming IS should give us pause over current weapons deals,” said Amnesty UK’s arms program director, Oliver Sprague.

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

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i http://www.meforum.org/5668/islamic-state-fatwas


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