Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 19-142-Caliphate-ISIS-48-5

CdW Intelligence to Rent -2016- In Confidence [email protected]

Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 19-142-Caliphate-ISIS-48-5

Al Zawahir: "the road to Jerusalem passes through Cairo."

“A large part of that is the Islamic State redirecting foreign fighters, specifically foreign fighters from the Sahel, North Africa and parts of east Africa as well to Libya rather than Syria and Iraq,” he said. “This is a long term approach,” Barr added. “Sirte could be the third capital of the Islamic State after Raqqa and Mosul.”Officials and analysts also warn against reading too much into the smaller IS fighting force in Iraq and Syria, saying the group’s leadership is showing few signs of conceding.“ISIS can actually survive even if it loses its terrain inside Iraq and Syria,” says to Harleen Gambhir, a counterterrorism analyst at the Institute for the Study of War.

Feb 5, The White House said on Friday it welcomed Saudi Arabia's announcement that it was prepared to ramp up its commitment to fighting Islamic State in Syria. White House spokesman Josh Earnest said the Saudi announcement on Thursday was a response to US Defense Secretary Ash Carter's plea for coalition partners to step up contributions to the fight against Islamic State."So we certainly welcome the announcement from our partners in Saudi Arabia that they would be prepared to ramp up their commitment militarily to this effort," he told reporters.Earnest said it was not clear whether the Saudi offer would include a significant contingent of ground troops or the deployment of special operations forces.

Saudi Arabia willing to send ground troops to SyriaThe fact that you will have Saudi troops on the ground fighting with the rebels against the government is a very significant escalationFeb 5 After recent military gains by Assad forces, Gulf kingdom ready to put boots on the ground in Syria's escalating war.05 Feb 2016 "Today, the Saudi kingdom announced its readiness to participate with ground troops with the US-led coalition against ISIL, because we now have the experience in Yemen," Brigadier General Ahmed Asseri told Al Jazeera."We know that air strikes cannot be enough and that a ground operation is needed. We need to combine both to achieve better results on the ground." "The fact that you will have Saudi troops on the ground fighting with the rebels against the government is a very significant escalation, and hopefully will get the Russians to these peace talks, rather than thinking they can create a mini-Alawite state in Syria," Korb told Al Jazeera. Lawrence Korb, a former US assistant secretary of defence, said while Middle East countries have armed and supplied rebels during the five-year Syrian civil war, putting boots on the ground would mark major shift.C Just read it again, Saudi Arabia willing to send ground troops to Syria, while Middle East countries have armed and supplied rebels during the five-year Syrian civil war, putting boots on the ground would mark major shift. Indeed it is, just the fact that you will have Saudi troops on Syrian ground fighting with the rebels against the government is a very significant escalation’ ITS AN INVASION of a sovereign country by its neighbour If Saudi ground forces are going to fight with the rebels against the government Assad forces; WHO is going to FIGHT ISIS, and aq?

Fewer Fighters in Iraq/Syria as IS Focuses on 'Third Capital'Jeff Seldin, Voice of America

“Know your enemy and know yourself and you can fight a hundred battles without disaster”― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 1 of 18 03/05/2023

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Some U.S. officials are heralding new intelligence on the number of Islamic State (IS) fighters as a sign the tide is starting to turn in the battle against the

terror group but there are concerns the self-declared caliphate’s larger, global strategy remains very well intact.The terror group, also known as ISIL or ISIS, now has a force in Iraq and Syria of just 19,000 to 25,000 fighters according to the most recent assessment, the White House said Thursday.National Security Council spokesperson Emily Horne called it “the lowest assessed range since we began conducting rigorous reviews of the group’s manpower.”Earlier estimates had put the number of IS frontline fighters at anywhere from 20,000 to 32,000, including what defense officials said were about 17,500 “hardcore members.”The new, lower estimate reflects a variety of factors, including battlefield deaths, desertions and recruiting shortfalls.“They continue to be a substantial threat, but the potential numbers have declined,” said White House spokesman Josh Earnest. “ISIL is having more difficulty than they’ve had before in replenishing their ranks.”No 'Knockout' Punch The downgrade of the IS force in Iraq and Syria comes almost a year-and-a-half after the U.S. and its coalition partners began launching airstrikes against the group, credited with killing as many as 28,000 fighters. But until recently, U.S. officials had said IS was able to replenish its ranks, in large part due to a constant influx of about 1,000 foreign fighters a month, many coming across the porous Turkish-Syrian border.“That’s a testament to the efforts of our partners on the ground,” said Earnest, who credited Turkey with cracking down on the border. “It also is a testament to the success that we’re having in starting to staunch the flow of foreign fighters to Iraq and in Syria.”Still, there is a high degree of wariness.“ISIL is not likely to go down by a single knockout punch,” a U.S. official told VOA on condition of anonymity. But he added, “The coalition’s repeated body blows against ISIL are wearing on the group."On the Rise in Libya Yet even as IS’s numbers appear to be on the decline in Iraq and Syria, the group’s numbers in Libya are on the rise. Pentagon officials Thursday confirmed figures previously reported by VOA that IS is now up to about 5,000 fighters in Libya - and growing.Included in that number, officials say, are numerous key military commanders and officials, including Abu Ali al-Anbari, a top deputy who previously reported directly to Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi in Syria.Such direct linkage to IS’s core leadership is unique among the group’s many self-declared provinces.“That’s what fundamentally different about Libya,” says a U.S. official also speaking on condition of anonymity. “Libya is a true branch.” At the White House Thursday, spokesman Josh Earnest tried to downplay concerns about the growing IS presence there, saying it is “dangerous but it’s different” from the group’s self-declared caliphate in Syria and Iraq.“We’ve been mindful of these other places,” he said. “We’re going to continue to watch how the threat in Libya evolves and we’re going to continue to be prepared to take action.”Tightening its Grip in Libya Already, the Pentagon has put special forces on the ground in Libya to look for groups “who might be worthy of U.S. support” while U.S. and European diplomats work to support a potential unity government. But there are fears, the longer it takes for the U.S. and its European allies to act, the stronger IS’s grip on Libya





will become.“The situation in Libya grows much more grave by the day,” said Nathaniel

Barr, a research manager at Valens Global, who cautions the drop in IS’s force size in Iraq and Syria is not entirely due to U.S. and coalition efforts. “A large part of that is the Islamic State redirecting foreign fighters, specifically foreign fighters from the Sahel, North Africa and parts of east Africa as well to Libya rather than Syria and Iraq,” he said.“This is a long term approach,” Barr added. “Sirte could be the third capital of the Islamic State after Raqqa and Mosul.”Smaller Force May Be StrategicOfficials and analysts also warn against reading too much into the smaller IS fighting force in Iraq and Syria, saying the group’s leadership is showing few signs of conceding.“ISIS can actually survive even if it loses its terrain inside Iraq and Syria,” says to Harleen Gambhir, a counterterrorism analyst at the Institute for the Study of War.U.S. officials estimate IS has lost 40 percent of the territory it held at its peak in Iraq and anywhere from five to 30 percent of the territory it once claimed in Syria.But Gambhir says how much territory has been lost is not as important as where that territory is.“That pressure is on the edges of its core areas of control,” she said. “No one is forcing Isis to defend its core areas of control along the Iraqi-Syrian border, along the Euphrates River Valley.”There are also concerns that the ongoing civil war in Syria could play to the terror group’s advantage, as Russia targets the multitude of opposition groups arrayed against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al Assad“It’s unlikely any party will try to expel ISIS from eastern Syria or try to hold that terrain because so many actors are focused on the fight in Western Syria,” Gambhir warned.And the U.S. and it’s allies could see their options dwindle.“As Russia slowly wears down and radicalizes the Syrian opposition, it’s really taking away any kind of anti-ISIS force that we would want to deploy,” she said.

The IDF believes that a conflict against Hezbollah or Hamas in 2016 is unlikely.The caliphate eyes the Holy Land, Ya'alon said that destroying "ISIS will take time, but it is possible," explaining that "ISIS is in Syria, Iraq, [Egypt's] Sinai, Libya, and their murderous ideology is now everywhere, including Western nations in which terrorists inspired by ISIS launch terror attacks."

Dec 29, Al-Baghdadi said ISIS has not forgotten Israel and vowed to expand the Caliphate to “Palestine” soon.

The Jews thought we forgot Palestine and that they had distracted us from it. Not at all Jews, we did not forget Palestine for a moment. With the help of Allah, we will not forget it … The pioneers of the jihadist fighters will surround you on a day that you think is distant and we know is close. We are getting closer every day.

On New Year’s Eve, news broke that another ISIS affiliate is amassing troops on Israel’s border with Syria on the Golan Heights. The Liwa Shuhada al-Yarmuk, or Yarmuk Martyrs Brigades in English, has set up camp a few kilometers from the border with Israel and is now attacking Jabhat al-Nusra, the Al-Qaeda branch in Syria that controls most of the border with Israel on the Golan Heights. The group currently has six hundred fighters, but possesses tanks and other heavy weaponry.

In the last four months, ISIS has launched numerous attacks on foreign targets, the most notable including Paris, Beirut and a Russian plane that was downed over Egypt’s





Sinai Pensula. The Obama Administration has responded by increasing airstrikes, as well as providing support and training for the Iraqi military to

avoid putting American boots on the ground.

Jan 21, In three new videos purportedly released by the Islamic State, ISIS threatens political upheaval in Maghreb nations, claiming that their leaders are “Westernized.” The videos were released on both January 19 and 20 and came from ISIS media producers in terrorist strongholds such as Syria, Iraq, and the Sinai Peninsula.WATCH: 4 New ISIS Videos Threaten Maghreb, North Africahttp://heavy.com/news/2016/01/new-isis-islamic-state-news-pictures-videos-maghreb-libya-tunisia-algeria-morocco-full-uncensored-youtube-video/

ISIS is threatening Israel from the south. IDF sources listing the expected security challenges to Israel in 2016 said that the biggest risk of operations against Israel over the coming year is on Israel's southern border. The IDF has realized that Israel faces security challenges along the borders in 2016, with the possibility of escalation beyond what occurred in 2015. From the IDF's perspective, ISIS Sinai poses the greatest risk of action against Israel, although its capabilities are limited. ISIS Sinai has 1,000 members and a supply of money and weapons from its parent organization. The IDF believes that there is also potential for escalation in Judea and Samaria, while the main restraining factor there is the economy, which will be damaged by escalation. Another restraining element is the partnership and security coordination with the Palestinian agencies still operating in the field. The sources also said that the IDF would have to organize and prepare in 2016 for war set off by a local event that could drag the region into a wider conflict. One of the key questions that will also affect Israel is the Shi'ite-Sunni tension in the Middle East, especially the tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabian policy also has the potential setting off a conflict in the entire region, including Israel. Published by Globes [online], Israel business news

The caliphate eyes the Holy Land, Israel faces the jihadists in Syria, in Sinai and perhaps even at homeJan 23rd 2016 | GOLAN HEIGHTS |

FROM the military observation points overlooking the spot where Israel’s frontiers meet those of Syria and Jordan, Israelis can clearly see the positions of Liwa Shuhada al-Yarmouk—the Yarmouk Martyrs’ Brigade. It is only one of many dozens of Syrian rebel groups, yet Israeli officers half-jokingly describe the fighters, mainly Syrians from nearby villages, as “Daesh lite”. The brigade, which may have between 600 and 1,000 men, has sworn allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the “Caliph” of Islamic State (IS), also known by its Arabic acronym, Daesh. The black flag of IS forms part of its logo.




http://heavy.com/news/2016/01/new-isis-islamic-state-news-pictures-videos-maghreb-libya-tunisia-algeria-morocco-full-uncensored-youtube-video/

http://heavy.com/news/2016/01/new-isis-islamic-state-news-pictures-videos-maghreb-libya-tunisia-algeria-morocco-full-uncensored-youtube-video/


So far, at least, the group has concentrated on skirmishing with the Syrian army and with rival rebel groups, and on securing its strongholds on the

slopes of the Golan. But the Israelis are worried that, as IS is pushed back in other parts of Syria and Iraq, its leaders may decide to take over the Yarmouk Martyrs’ Brigade and use its bases for attacks on Israel or Jordan.

IS has yet to attack Israel. Its main forces in southern Syria are about 80km (50 miles) from Israel’s borders. Last month, IS put out a recording, purporting to be the voice of Mr Baghdadi, saying that “with the help of Allah we are getting closer to you every day. The Israelis will soon see us in Palestine.” On January 18th Lieutenant-General Gadi Eizenkot, the chief of staff of Israel’s armed forces, warned that “the success against IS raises the probability we will see them turning their gun-barrels towards us and also the Jordanians”.The most direct and likely avenue of attack is across Israel’s frontier with Syria. That is because the situation there is already chaotic; IS bases and civilian villages are close to Israel; and the terrain is mountainous. “A vacuum where no one is in control will always be the most dangerous location we should be looking at,” says a senior Israeli officer. Israel has toughened its border defences on the Golan, with new fences and sensors. It now stations regular forces there instead of reservists.But IS may also choose other places from which to attack. Wilayat Sinai, which means the “Sinai province” of IS, has been operating on Israel’s western border for five years. It declared allegiance to IS in late 2014 and claimed responsibility for blowing up a Russian airliner last October, killing 224 people. But it is embroiled in a bloody insurgency against Egypt’s security forces. Israel, which is discreetly providing the Egyptians with intelligence and military help, says that IS shares routes for smuggling arms and other supplies with Hamas, the Islamist group that controls Gaza. These could be used for launching future attacks on Israel.The Israelis are also worried that radical Palestinians who are citizens of Israel may be working for IS. So far they reckon that about 50 of them have gone to Syria to join IS. “There are more Swedes than Israelis fighting with Daesh,” says an Israeli intelligence man. Others say they are confident that Israel’s security service is better than its European counterparts at monitoring IS activity in its own territory. Even so, they fret that IS could





become popular among young Palestinians in Israel, and in the West Bank and Gaza, where many are disillusioned both with the Palestinian Authority

and with Hamas, its rival.“IS is here and it’s no secret,” says Reuven Rivlin, Israel’s president. “I’m not talking about the borders of Israel, but about IS within. Research, arrests, witnesses, open and classified analysis all indicate clearly that IS’s popularity is growing and that even Israeli Arabs are actually joining up with it.” Vigilance along Israel’s borders may not be enough.

Jan 25, 2016 Leader's Aide: Israel Plotting to Disintegrate Islamic States

TEHRAN (FNA)- Iranian Supreme Leader's top adviser for international affairs Ali Akbar Velayati warned of the plots hatched by Tel Aviv to disintegrate Islamic states, including Iraq and Syria. "The Zionist regime seeks to sow discord and disintegrate the Muslim countries,” Velayati said in Tehran on Monday. He pointed to the important role the Kurds play in the fight against Takfiri terrorism, adding, "We supported the Kurdish fighters in the battle against Saddam. We backed both Mr. Barzani and Talabani, and we are against what happened in Kobani." "We now support the Syrian Kurds in the battle against ISIL. As the history of our Kurdish brothers in Iraq and Syria shows, they always fight back against foreign invaders,” Velayati noted. is remarks came after Israeli Justice Minister

Ayelet Shaked spoke out in favor of an independent Kurdish state. She also urged increased cooperation between Israel and the Kurdish people. Shaked sees this as an opportunity to weaken Israel’s rivals in the region.“We must openly call for the establishment of a Kurdish state that separates Iran from Turkey, one which will be friendly towards Israel,” Shaked told the annual INSS security conference

in Tel Aviv last Tuesday, as cited by the Times of Israel.More precisely, Shaked proposed the new state be founded between Turkey, Israel and Iraq.

Jan 26, Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon said on Tuesday that Turkey supports terror instead of combating it, permitting ISIS to enjoy "Turkish money for oil." He said that normalizing fraught relations between Israel and Turkey was contingent on Ankara's ceasing these activities, in comments that could hinder attempts to mend fences between the two countries. Speaking after a meeting with his Greek counterpart, Panos Kammenos, Ya'alon said that "Daesh (Islamic State) enjoyed Turkish money for oil for a very, very long period of time. I hope that it will be ended," he said, adding that Istanbul has become "Hamas' terror headquarters outside of Gaza." The defense minister continued, even saying that Turkey had "permitted jihadists to move from Europe to Syria and Iraq and back, as part of Daesh's terrorist network." Ya'alon said that "It's up to Turkey, the Turkish government, the Turkish leadership, to decide... should all these stop, and Turkey will be willing to reconcile with us, then Turkey can be part of the collaborative regional effort to fight terror – instead of supporting it."According to the defense minister, despite past good relations between the two countries,





the Turkish government has chosen to deteriorate relations with Jerusalem, with the Gaza flotilla being "the highet of provocation."

Ya'alon said that destroying "ISIS will take time, but it is possible," explaining that "ISIS is in Syria, Iraq, [Egypt's] Sinai, Libya, and their murderous ideology is now everywhere, including Western nations in which terrorists inspired by ISIS launch terror attacks."

Report: ISIL's Foreign Fighters Leaving. TEHRAN (FNA 25 Jan)- Local sources in the city of Mosul in Western Iraq have disclosed that the number of the ISIL militants coming from the western countries has declined, media reports said."The ISIL's decision to reduce the salaries of its foreign militants by half has immensely impacted them so much that some of them have left the terrorist group," the Arabic-language al-Sumeria news channel quoted a local source as saying on Monday.The source reiterated that the decline in the number of the foreign ISIL militants shows that their impetus is money and not Islam.In a relevant development earlier this month, the Russian Sputnik news agency reported that it will take a little time but the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant is approaching its end. The ISIL (also known as Daesh) is the bastard child of the US's drive to achieve regime change in Syria, it said.To that end the US and its allies instigated an armed insurrection against the Syrian government. Though protests — many of them violent — began in 2011, it was in 2012 — after the Geneva Peace Conference — which the US wrecked by insisting President Assad stand down — that the major fighting began, with a rebel offensive against Syria's two biggest cities: Aleppo and Damascus.The offensive failed. The Syrian government survived, retaining control of Damascus and half of Aleppo. Defending these cities and the populated coastal core of Syria however forced the Syrian army to withdraw from large areas of Syrian territory, most of them desert.In 2013 the military balance shifted back to the Syrian government.The US response was to try to use a chemical attack on the Damascus suburb of Ghouta as a pretext to bomb Syria. When that failed because of strong opposition from Russia and US public opinion it stepped up support for the insurgency.Weapons, money and fighters poured in, and over the course of 2014 the military balance shifted back to the rebels again. The main beneficiary was the organization that now calls itself the ISIL. This began as the Iraqi branch of the global jihadi terrorist group Al-Qaeda.It took advantage of the vacuum created by the Syrian army's withdrawal from Syria's desert regions to expand into Syria and to establish itself there.As the best organized, most violent and most militant of the jihadi groups that form the core of the Syrian rebellion, it quickly achieved predominance especially as it focused on seizing territory rather than fighting the Syrian army.In 2014 it went on the offensive in Iraq, seizing the important city of Mosul.Shortly after it declared itself the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant and proclaimed its leader — the man known as Ibrahim Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi — Islam's Caliph.The ISIL is said to have a Wahhabist or Salafist ideology, like those in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and like that of its original parent, Al-Qaeda. Actually it combines Salafism with





an apocalyptic vision previously unknown to Islam.As it says its leader is the Caliph it claims to be the only legitimate

government for Muslims.It rules the areas it controls by violence and terror, backed by money it gets from the Persian Gulf (Arab States) and from the illegal oil trade.All this explains why following Russia's military intervention in Syria it is doomed.The Russian military intervention means there is no danger of the Syrian government collapsing — as looked possible just a few months ago.The Syrian army has now been able to go on the offensive, and is advancing on all fronts.The ISIL cannot withstand the Syrian army backed by the Russian air force and Iranian and Russian governments. However if it fails to hold the territory it has seized its claim to be the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant collapses.The only way the ISIL could survive would be if the US and its allies acted to save it.Its appalling violence and megalomaniac pretensions means that for the US it is however an embarrassment not an asset. The main thing Its grotesque antics have achieved is to unite world opinion behind the Syrian government and Russia.Instead of willing ISIL's survival, the US would far rather it disappear so it can support the other jihadi terrorist groups — the so-called "moderates" — without embarrassment.That seals ISIL's fate.

TEHRAN (FNA 25 Jan)- Russian Defense Ministry spokesman said that media reports on a new Russian base in Syria may be an attempt to cover-up information about Turkey's deployment of a large group of troops to the Syrian border.Media reports on a new Russian base in Syria may be an attempt to cover-up information about Turkey's deployment of a large group of troops to the Syrian border, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said Monday, Sputnik reported. "[Russia] has no 'new' airbases or additional 'stage' airfields for Russian warplanes in the Syrian Arab Republic, and has no plans to create them [in the future]," according to Konashenkov told journalists. Earlier The Times published a story claiming that Russia had plans of creating a new airbase in Syria."Rumors published by "The Times" newspaper on that issue is an amateurish farce or an attempt to cover up information about Turkey's deployment of a large group of troops to the Syrian border in the Qamishli district," Konashenkov said.

January 25, 2016 Special Dispatch No.6277ISIS Video Features Posthumous Message From Paris Attackers; Shows Attackers Prior To The Operation, Executing PrisonersThe following report is a complimentary offering from MEMRI's Jihad and Terrorism Threat Monitor (JTTM). On January 24, 2016, ISIS's Al-Hayat Media Center released a video titled "Kill Them Wherever You Find Them" (a reference to Koran 2:191), featuring the nine ISIS members who carried out the November 13, 2015 Paris attack and who were all killed during this attack or shortly after it. In the 18-minute video, prerecorded before the attack, the terrorists deliver threatening messages to France and to ISIS's other enemies, and seven of them follow their message with the execution of a prisoner (five of the terrorists behead their victims and two shoot them with a gun).The messages delivered by the nine terrorists are similar, and reminiscent of many messages delivered by foreign ISIS fighters to Western audiences in ISIS videos produced since the summer of 2014. The nine threaten ISIS's enemies and insist that the West will





know no peace until it stops fighting the organization, implying that ISIS's actions are merely retaliation for its enemies' aggression. They also address Muslims living in the West, calling upon them to join ISIS's jihad or carry out attacks on their own. Several of the speakers stress that the Paris attack was carried out on a direct order from ISIS leader

Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi.The executions performed by the terrorists demonstrate their ruthlessness and blind obedience to the organization. They may have been a joint operation meant to consolidate the group, or else a "test" to ascertain the fighters' suitability for an operation like the Paris attacks.The following are further details about the video, which is in French and Arabic. It was distributed with Arabic or English subtitles on Twitter and Telegram[1] accounts, and was hosted on Archive.org, YouTube, Sendvid and other services. Song Accompanying The Video Says: "My Kalashnikov Is Loaded; The Civilians Are Unarmed; I Am Annihilating Frenchmen"The video opens and closes with what appears to be two messages in code, encrypted with PGP software. The message in the beginning of the film, which is followed by a decryption, details the targets of the Novermber 13 Paris attack. The message at the end appears only in code. Following the encrypted message at the beginning of the film comes a written statement saying: "The following are the final messages of the nine lions of the Caliphate who were sent forth from their dens to bring an entire country - France - to her knees. They raised the word of tawhid [monotheism] and lived the verses of the Koran by killing the infidels wherever they found them. And they continued to do so until their thirst for success was quenched with nothing other than their own blood."This is followed by footage from Western media covering the Paris attacks, with the audio from news reporters describing the scene of the massacres. The video features two new nasheed (Islamic songs) in French, mentioning among other things the January 2015 attack carried out by Amedy Coulibaly. One of the songs also mentions the November 13 Paris attacks themselves, saying: "Charronnes, Bichat, Voltaire [locations of the attacks] / My Kalashnikov is loaded / The civilians are unarmed / I am annihilating Frenchmen / It is Valls [the French prime minister] who should be thanked… It is only for the sake of Allah that have we made this choice, killing with hearts full of joy, we will kill you without mercy…" The video shows French President Francois Hollande with a target around his head

Cell Leader Abdelhamid Abaaoud: "We Are Terrorists Who Terrorize The Unbelievers"The first message in the video is delivered by





Abdelhamid Abaaoud,[2] aka Abu 'Umar Al-Baljiki, considered to be the leader of the operation, who speaks to the camera in front of an ISIS flag. The

setting of the sequence and the poor quality of audio and video suggest that his address was filmed outside ISIS territory, perhaps while he was already in Europe. He states in French:"I have a message for those unbelievers who fight the Muslims [and] for all the states that are part of the [anti-ISIS] coalition. You who come, who dare to come flying through Allah's skies, you who dare to come to the lands of the Muslims to fight them... You think you can come and fight Muslims like that, and [continue to] live peacefully in [your] homes? By Allah, you will taste terror you will taste it inside your homes… By Allah, we will come. In fact, we are already here, inside your houses, [here] to slay you. And all this is due to your [own] policy of war, or rather the policy of your political leaders. You voted for these leaders and this is the result. The result is that your leaders have declared a war they cannot handle. By Allah, they will not be able to protect you, either outside or inside your countries. By Allah, as long as there is bombardment, as long as you declare war, as long as you make war on the Muslims, we will not stop fighting you anywhere in the world. When you are on holiday or on a business trip, or when you are fast asleep inside your homes, expect a mujahid to come and kill you. By Allah, you will never be at peace... As long as there are Muslims in the prisons of the unbelievers, we will fight you. As long as you do not respect the honor of our sisters, we will fight you. By Allah, this day we will make your blood [flow like] rivers. By Allah, we will fight you to the last. Between yourselves and us there is [only] the sword. If you send your fighters to bomb Muslims, know that the Islamic state sends you hunters who are thirsty for the blood of disbelievers, hunters who will not rest until you are slaughtered. We are terrorists who terrorize the unbelievers. We terrorize those who terrorize Muslims. And with the help of Allah, we will liberate Palestine."

Paris Attackers Deliver Messages, Execute PrisonersThe next part of the video was apparently filmed in Syria or Iraq. In it, seven of the fighters, dressed in identical battle fatigues, each delivers a message and then executes a prisoner.Samy Amimour, aka Abu Qital Al-Faransi, states: "I was sent by our Emir, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, to cleanse the land of the disbelievers wherever they are and whoever they are… Our knives are getting closer to your throats every day and we'll fight you in the heart of your country, [even] at the foot of the Eiffel Tower. I would like to say something to you Muslims who remain in France, you who call yourselves Muslims... Our people are dying every day, and you sit there idly? You live with them, sleep with them and eat with them, with these disbelievers? You could at least show some pride and spit in their faces, if you cannot find a weapon or smash their heads in with a stone, or run them over with your car, or terrorize them. React! Wake up before it's too late, [before] it is they who massacre you."He then beheads a prisoner with a knife.Foued Mohammed-Aggad,[3] aka Abu Fu'ad Al-Faransi and Bilal Hadfi, aka Abu Mujaed Al-Baljiki, both make short statements before beheading their victims. The first one states: "Know that we have received the order from the Emir of the Believers [Abu Bakr Al-





Baghdadi] to kill you wherever you are. We'll spill your blood

[just] as you shed blood in the land of the Caliphate." The second says: "O disbelievers,... the wheel is turning. Blood for blood and destruction for destruction. You will not be safe, neither in your homes nor in your dreams." Ukash Al-Iraqi and 'Ali Al-Iraqi make a joint statement in Arabic: "I say to you, O crusaders, that if you don’t end this coalition, we will fight you within your very stronghold until we fill your streets with terror and until we enter Rome as conquerors, sounding the call for prayer there, performing the [Muslim] prayers and breaking your crosses. And know that world supremacy will be for none other than the Muslims, and will not come about except by the edge of the sword." Then they each execute a man by shooting him in the back of the head. It is noteworthy that the two members of the group who do not perform a beheading are the two non-Europeans.Chakib Akrouh, aka Dhul-Qarayn Al-Baljiki, states: "I have a little message to all those who voted for this taghut [tyrant], this poodle of the White House. You have blood on your hands for the simple reason that you participated in electing this president [Holland] that today bombed our Muslim brothers in Mali, Syria and Iraq." He then beheads a

prisoner.Omar Ismail Mostefai, aka Abu Rayyan Al-Faransi, states: "This message is addressed to France. By Allah, I swear you will taste bitterness like which you have never tasted before... This message is addressed to you disbelievers. We will come to your land, and, by Allah, you will taste the same suffering that

our women and our children taste here... Know that it is the order of our Emir, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, to fight you in your land. And there are soldiers who are ready to give their lives for Allah, and we are among them. If Allah permits it, our next meeting will be on Champs Élysées... We do not forget 'Ayn Al-Islam [Kobani]. All those martyrs you killed are now in heaven… This jihad is an individual obligation, like prayer." He then beheads prisoner and holds up his head. The ninth terrorist, Brahim Abdeslam, is shown in a different setting. He is seen performing target practice at an undisclosed location, and he does not deliver a message or execute a prisoner.The video ends with the caption: "Whoever stands in the ranks of the disbelievers will be a target for our swords and will fall in humiliation," and with several pictures of the British parliament and of British Prime Minister David Cameron. Endnotes: [1] Telegram.me/ei_nachir_fr2.[2] On Abaaoud, see MEMRI JTTM report Dabiq VII Features Interview With Runaway Belgian ISIS Fighter Abdelhamid Abaaoud, February 12, 2015.[3] See MEMRI JTTM report Exclusive Profile Of Foued Mohamed-Aggad, Paris Bataclan Attacker, December 10, 2015.





Is ISIS Good at Governing?by Aymenn Jawad al-TamimiThe Brookings InstitutionFebruary 3, 2016To explain the troubles ISIS faces at home, we have invited a group of scholars to comment on its governance over the past years and speculate on what it might face in the year ahead. First was Mara Revkin, who examined how opinions towards ISIS have changed since it captured Mosul more than a year ago. Next up is Aymenn al-Tamimi, a Jihad-Intel research fellow at the Middle East Forum, who argues that internal documents show increasing challenges for the Islamic State.

caption beginThe ISIS Department of Education in Raqqa, Syria.caption end

There are a variety of ways to assess Islamic State (or ISIS) governance over its territories. One angle involves trying to talk to residents living within ISIS-controlled lands, and indeed this is the primary line of evidence Mara Revkin relies on in her piece assessing ISIS administration.While oral testimony may produce some interesting observations on ISIS governance, it is also beset with difficulties in reliability and corroboration. The ISIS system of rule is a totalitarian dictatorship, on the lookout for anyone who could be deemed to be collaborating with the outside world. As such, residents





may be reluctant to criticize, out of fear that they could be accused of leaking information harmful to ISIS. That can get a person disappeared or publicly executed.Last year, when I was speaking with a friend living in the western Anbar town of Rawa, he initially said that most residents preferred life under ISIS:We are not content like before but I and most of the people here prefer living under the shade of the Islamic State, as no soldier comes upon our lands, and now I assure you that all the people of Rawa will fight in one rank against the [Iraqi] army if it tries to advance an inch because the army won't have mercy on anyone...and this is the truth...and I give you knowledge of the sentiment among most of the people who were persecuted by the army but had committed no crime or fault, but we only lack [national grid] electricity.At first glance, his sentiments seem quite understandable. Harassment, mass arrests, and disappearances in prisons of Iraqi Sunnis by the Baghdad government's security forces were common grievances—maybe they have more weight than loss of access to public services like the national electricity grid, from which most areas under IS control have now been cut off.Yet in a subsequent conversation, in which I inquired about any publications ISIS had distributed in his area, the fear of ISIS became very apparent:Brother, you know why I am cautious in giving you information: because the Internet is being monitored. And I want to know what you will do with it and whether this thing will harm the Dawla [ISIS], because after God Almighty and Exalted is He, we don't have anything besides the Islamic State, and I fear having a [negative] effect on them.Another resident of Rawa refused to discuss anything about life in the town, with the same concern about Internet communication being monitored by ISIS.These examples offer a glimpse into the challenges of understanding ISIS administration through local testimony. How can we be sure the testimony is not compromised on account of fear? It is of course possible





to find people critical of ISIS living within its territories: for instance, a relative in Mosul told me a year ago that 90 percent of the city's inhabitants prefer life before ISIS, but said fear prevents them from expressing their true feelings. But how does one even verify that claim?Cracks in the systemWith clear shortcomings in oral testimony, I prefer to focus instead on internal ISIS documents to understand the evolution in governance—as well as problems facing ISIS that we don't see in the endless streams of propaganda. To be sure, this method also has limitations: though I have managed to compile hundreds of documents so far, they likely constitute only a small fraction of the whole cache. Only if the ISIS project collapses with loss of major strongholds like Raqqa and Mosul—and hopefully the capture of tens of thousands of documents—will we get a fuller picture.Only if the ISIS project collapses, with the capture of tens of thousands of documents, will we get a fuller picture.Even so, the documents unearthed so far yield a number of important insights. The ISIS bureaucracy is ostensibly comprehensive and impressive, but it is clear that as time progresses, the state project is facing challenges due to pressure from its enemies.For example, in mid-2015, the agricultural department issued a general notification urging people to conserve grain stocks on account of the "economic war" being waged by the coalition against ISIS, indicating that agricultural output in ISIS territories was in trouble. In addition, while ISIS makes no secret of its appeals for medical personnel to come to the caliphate, internal documents show that brain-drain is also a problem: multiple ultimatums have been issued, calling for medical professionals to return to ISIS lands or risk





having their property confiscated.

caption beginAn IS document warns medical professionals to report to work or face arrest and confiscation of property.caption end

While ISIS would like to cultivate a new generation of professionals, the only real existing institution is Mosul University, which practically remains open only to Iraqi students. ISIS closed some departments on the grounds of contravening its ideology, and even those that remain open cannot function, likely owing to the wider issue of brain drain.Documents also show great concern about the anti-ISIS coalition's ability to launch airstrikes on high-profile targets. Worried about data security, the ISIS leadership increasingly attempts to restrict all broadcasting of information to its own channels. It has warned fighters





and commanders not to open social media accounts or use mobiles, and recently banned satellite television.Cash rules everythingFinally, for all the criticisms of the anti-ISIS coalition's strategies, it is clear that they have significantly dented the group's financial revenues. The Iraqi government no longer pays salaries of workers living under ISIS rule, airstrikes have hit ISIS-owned assets in the oil industry, Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) have taken the key Syria-Turkey border point of Tel Abyad, and Turkey has tightened security on remaining border areas under ISIS control.As a result, ISIS has reduced expenditures and increased taxation on its populations. In Mosul, for instance, ISIS imposed all costs for printing textbooks on school students. From Raqqa province, a memo dating to November/December 2015 established a 50 percent pay cut for all fighters, regardless of rank. The latter pointed to "the exceptional circumstances" ISIS is facing (referring, no doubt, to financial troubles). This is particularly significant as a financial budget I obtained from Deir az-Zor province shows that military upkeep—primarily in the form of fighters' salaries—can be reasonably estimated to account for two-thirds of ISIS expenditures. These pay cuts may exacerbate problems of military cohesion in ISIS's ranks—evidenced by a month-long general amnesty issued in October 2015 for deserters, and the failures of mobilization efforts to stop the Assad regime and Iran from breaking the ISIS siege of Kweiris airbase in Aleppo province.Bring the fight homeFor all of these insights into internal challenges for the ISIS project, I deem the prospect of collapse from an internal revolt unlikely. It is evident that internal opponents of ISIS face a stifling environment, and no one to date has offered them an alternative model of governance. Any internal uprisings that do occur—such





as the Sha'itat revolt in Deir az-Zor province back in 2014—have been put down with ruthless efficiency. From the economic side, the group's financial difficulties are unlikely to translate into total collapse, as it's impossible to completely seal off cash flow between ISIS and the outside world.All of this shows that it will be up to outside forces to take the fight against ISIS to its heartlands.Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi is a research fellow at Middle East Forum's Jihad Intel project.

Previous: February 1, 2016 Special Dispatch No.6288Iraqi Journalist Comes Out Against Claim That ISIS Has Nothing To Do With IslamIn an article titled "Does Terror Truly Have No Religion?" in the pro-Iranian Iraqi newspaper Al-Akhbar, Iraqi journalist Fadel Boula came out against the claim, which is frequently heard in the Arab world and outside it, that the terror of the Islamic State (ISIS) and its ilk is completely unrelated to Islam. He pointed out that these terror organizations are motivated by an extremist Salafi ideology and claim that their atrocities represent Allah's will and directives.The following are excerpts from his article:[1] "[Does terror truly have no religion?] This slogan is uttered regarding terror, as though [terror] reflects a picture that is completely unrelated to its perpetrators' religious affiliation, and as though there are no religious goals or values behind it, but only a state of insanity that causes those afflicted with it to run amok, unaware of what they are doing or what [they seek] to achieve by their actions – [actions] that disgust not only human beings but [even] the beasts of the jungle."The terror that is shaking the world today is not a natural disaster like a tornado, a thunderstorm or an earthquake, and it is not perpetrated by savage tribes. It is perpetrated by people who enlist [because they are] inspired by a religious ideology. [These people] advocate enforcing and spreading [this ideology as a set of] dogmatic principles that must be imposed by the force of the sword, and which [mandate] killing, expulsion and destruction wherever they go."Since its inception, this movement of terror has espoused a Salafi ideology that champions religious extremism, and brainwashed people of all ages have rallied around its flag, [people who were] trained to kill themselves and kill others in order to attain martyrdom.

"The terror organizations that act in the name of religion were born when [the mujahideen] declared Islamic jihad against the Soviet forces in Afghanistan. It was the Saudi sheikh Osama bin Laden who laid the cornerstone for the first [terror] cell, which he named Al-Qaeda. Later he called to launch a war in the name of religion, and young believers, influenced by fatwas of extremist [clerics], especially Saudi ones, flocked from the Muslim lands [to Afghanistan].

"[Then, Abu Mus'ab] Al-Zarqawi formed a branch of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, which, calling itself 'the Islamic State in Iraq,' recently settled in the city of Mosul and united with its counterpart in Syria. Thus, a scary organization [namely ISIS] suddenly appeared, which advertises itself as the bearer of Islam's message and banner. [Emulating the early] Islamic





conquests, [this organization] invaded Iraq and Syria and appointed a Caliph for the Muslims: Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, who settled in Mosul and showed

its people what [it is like] to be ruled by a government [that is a throwback to] 1,400 years ago, in terms of the treatment [they received] and the plunder of their lands. The invaders attacked the populace of Mosul and eastern Syria, arrested them by the hundreds, and took a sword to their necks, and later singled out the Christians among them and offered them two options: either convert to Islam or pay the poll tax, as happened to their forefathers when the Arabs attacked their lands in the days of the Caliph 'Umar Al-Khattab [583-644 AD]. When [the Christians] rejected this humiliation, [ISIS] seized their property, expelled them from their historic home, the province of Ninveh, and sent them to wander destitute under the skies, seeking rescue and safety.

"As for the Yazidis, their plight was and remains an historic disaster that was inflicted upon them by the God-fearing Caliph [Al-Baghdadi] when he applied to them the verse pertaining to infidels, namely offering them two options: to [either] embrace Islam, or die and have their money, women and children seized. We keep seeing images of innocent people being killed and beheaded by these terrorists, who butcher their victims while crying out "in the name of Allah the merciful" and "Allah akbar." All these crimes are [ostensibly] carried out with Allah's approval, and they are perpetrated by those who praise Allah day and night and who pray fervently and do everything according to His will.

"When the terrorists blew up the World Trade Center and several airplanes, killing thousands of victims, Osama bin Laden, surrounded by his people, said on television: 'This is a victory from Allah.' And now ISIS is bragging about killing innocent people in Paris, saying that it was 'done with Allah's approval,' and threatening that the next attack will be in the U.S., Allah willing. And [Sheikh Yusouf] Al-Qaradhawi and others like him pray and hope that, in the wake of this terrorist momentum, a day will arrive when Muslims inundate Europe and subdue it to Islam. Is this not enough to convince [us] that terror [does] have a religion?"Endnotes: [1] Al-Akhbar (Iraq), November 18, 2015.




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