0 15 30 45 60 75 90 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 ($US/bbl) WTI-WCS WTI WCS -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (%) Real GDP by Industry Alberta Activity Index 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2,200 2,250 2,300 2,350 2,400 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 (%) Employment (left) Unemployment Rate (right) (thousands) -1.6 20.0 -15.0 -15.5 3.8 -1.8 21.4 -2.2 10.4 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 (thousands) WTI - West Texas Intermediate (US$/bbl) WTI-WCS Differential (US$/bbl) Henry Hub (US$/MMBtu) AECO-C (C$/GJ) Exchange Rate (US¢/C$) July 4, 2019 57.34 12.60 2.29 1.05 76.58 Fiscal YTD 59.81 11.22 2.50 1.12 74.83 Oil Prices Daily prices Source: US Energy Information Administration, CME Group, Kent Group Limited Labour Market Monthly change in employment Source: Statistics Canada Economic Activity Year-over-year % change Source: Statistics Canada, Alberta Treasury Board and Finance Labour Market Employment and Unemployment Rate Source: Statistics Canada NEW: Oil Prices WTI decreased US$2.09 per barrel on the week and closed at US$57.34 on Thursday. The WTI-WCS differential narrowed to close at US$12.60 per barrel, down from US$13.00 the previous week. Employment in Alberta rose by 10,400 in June following a slight pullback in May. In the last 12 months, Alberta has added 29,500 jobs. The next LFS release is August 9. Alberta’s unemployment rate fell from 6.7% in May to 6.6% in June and was unchanged from a year ago. Economic Activity The Alberta Activity Index rose 2.6% m/m in April and was up 1.6% y/y. Alberta’s real GDP by industry grew by 2.3% in 2018 following 4.6% growth in 2017. NEW: Labour Market Indicators at a Glance | Treasury Board and Finance Page 1 July 5, 2019 Alberta Economy Indicators at a Glance
Transcript
Oil PricesDaily prices
Source: US Energy Information Administration, CME Group, Kent Group Limited, Haver Analyticschrt_01.pdf
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19
($US/bbl)WTI-WCS WTI WCS
pdf: chrt_ 01_rgdp.pdf
Economic ActivityYear-over-year % change
Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance
chrt_02.pdf
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(%)Real GDP by Industry Alberta Activity Index
\\ter-fin-fs-01.fin.gov.ab.ca\Publications\_Economics_publications\Alberta Indicators at a Glance\Source documents\/2019-06-28_AlbertaIndicatorsCharts2) Economic Activity 2019-06-28: 9:19 AM
PDF named: chrt_ 03_lm.pdf Alberta Economy Indicators at a GlanceIndicators - page 1-2
Labour MarketEmployment and Unemployment Rate
chrt_04.pdf
4
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6
7
8
9
10
2,200
2,250
2,300
2,350
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(%)Employment (left)
Unemployment Rate (right)
(thousands)
\\ter-fin-fs-01.fin.gov.ab.ca\Publications\_Economics_publications\Alberta Indicators at a Glance\Source documents\: 2019-07-05_AlbertaIndicatorsCharts: 4) Labour
2019-07-05: 11:04 AM
PDF named: chrt_ 03_lm.pdf Alberta Economy Indicators at a GlanceIndicators - page 1-2
Labour MarketMonthly change in employment
chrt_03.pdf
-1.6
20.0
-15.0 -15.5
3.8
-1.8
21.4
-2.2
10.4
-20-15-10
-505
10152025
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19
(thousands)
\\ter-fin-fs-01.fin.gov.ab.ca\Publications\_Economics_publications\Alberta Indicators at a Glance\Source documents\: 2019-07-05_AlbertaIndicatorsCharts: 3) Labour
2019-07-05: 11:04 AM
WTI - West Texas Intermediate (US$/bbl)
WTI-WCS Differential (US$/bbl)
Henry Hub (US$/MMBtu)
AECO-C (C$/GJ)
Exchange Rate (US¢/C$)
July 4, 2019 57.34 12.60 2.29 1.05 76.58
Fiscal YTD 59.81 11.22 2.50 1.12 74.83
Oil PricesDaily prices
Source: US Energy Information Administration, CME Group, Kent Group Limited
Labour MarketMonthly change in employment
Source: Statistics Canada
Economic ActivityYear-over-year % change
Source: Statistics Canada, Alberta Treasury Board and Finance
Labour MarketEmployment and Unemployment Rate
Source: Statistics Canada
NEW: Oil PricesWTI decreased US$2.09 per barrel on the week and closed at US$57.34 on Thursday. The WTI-WCS differential narrowed to close at US$12.60 per barrel, down from US$13.00 the previous week.
Employment in Alberta rose by 10,400 in June following a slight pullback in May. In the last 12 months, Alberta has added 29,500 jobs. The next LFS release is August 9.
Alberta’s unemployment rate fell from 6.7% in May to 6.6% in June and was unchanged from a year ago.
Economic ActivityThe Alberta Activity Index rose 2.6% m/m in April and was up 1.6% y/y. Alberta’s real GDP by industry grew by 2.3% in 2018 following 4.6% growth in 2017.
NEW: Labour Market
Indicators at a Glance | Treasury Board and FinancePage 1 July 5, 2019
Alberta EconomyIndicators at a Glance
Contact: Robert Van Blyderveen at 780.638.5628
PDF named: chrt_ 04_iae.pdf Alberta Economy Indicators at a GlanceIndicators - page 1-2
Manufacturing Shipments and Merchandise ExportsYear-over-year % change
\\ter-fin-fs-01.fin.gov.ab.ca\Publications\_Economics_publications\Alberta Indicators at a Glance\Source documents\: 2019-07-05_AlbertaIndicatorsCharts: 5) Exports and Man
2019-07-05: 11:04 AM
Rigs DrillingNumber of rigs drilling and five-year seasonal range
Source: Canadian Association of Oil Well Drilling Contractors (CAODC)chrt_06.pdf
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100
200
300
400
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(rigs drilling)5-yr Range 2019 2018
PDF named: chrt_ 04_iae.pdf Alberta Economy Indicators at a GlanceIndicators - page 1-2
Inflation, Earnings and Retail SalesYear-over-year % change
\\ter-fin-fs-01.fin.gov.ab.ca\Publications\_Economics_publications\Alberta Indicators at a Glance\Source documents\: 2019-06-28_AlbertaIndicatorsCharts: 8) Housing
2019-06-28: 9:50 AM
NEW: Business OutputManufacturing shipments rose 4.6% month-over-month (m/m) in April to $6.9 billion, 18% higher than a year ago.
Alberta goods exports increased by 15% m/m in May, to total $12.0 billion. On a year-over-year basis, they were up 17%.
NEW: Rigs DrillingThe number of active rigs drilling in Alberta averaged 61 in June, down 43% year-over-year (y/y).
Average Weekly EarningsAverage weekly earnings (AWE) in Alberta declined 1.0% m/m in April to $1,144, 0.6% lower than a year ago.
InflationThe consumer price growth in Alberta ticked up to 2.3% y/y in May, from 2.2% y/y in the previous month.
Retail SalesAlberta retail sales increased 1.6% m/m to $7.1 billion in April. With the monthly gain, sales were 3.5% higher than a year ago.
Housing MarketAlberta housing starts fell 13% m/m in May to 22,754 units (annualized). On a year-over-year basis, housing starts were down 37%.
The number of homes sold increased by 2.5% m/m to 4,547 units in May. Compared to a year ago, home sales were up 5.1%.
Population GrowthAlberta’s population was 4,362,503 as of April 1, 2019, an increase of 1.7% from the year prior. During the last 12 months, Alberta welcomed 34,447 net international migrants and 10,115 net interprovincial migrants.
Manufacturing Shipments and Merchandise ExportsYear-over-year % change
Source: Statistics Canada, SA - Seasonally Adjusted
Rigs DrillingNumber of rigs drilling and five-year seasonal range
Source: Canadian Association of Oil Well Drilling Contractors (CAODC)
Retail Sales, Consumer Prices, and EarningsYear-over-year % change
Source: Statistics Canada
Housing Starts and Home ResalesYear-over-year % change
Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Real Estate Association, SAAR -Seasonally adjusted annual rate
Indicators at a Glance | Treasury Board and FinancePage 2 July 5, 2019
Please see the Weekly Economic Review for current analysis on the Alberta economy
PDF named: chrt_07_rgdpgbi.pdf Alberta Economy Indicators at a GlanceProvincial Comparisons - Pg 3
Real GDP by Industry(2018, year-over-year growth)
chrt_09.pdf
2.0
-2.7
2.6
1.2
0.1
2.52.2
1.31.6
2.32.4
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
CAN NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC
(%)
\\ter-fin-fs-01.fin.gov.ab.ca\Publications\_Economics_publications\Alberta Indicators at a Glance\Source documents\: 2019-07-05_AlbertaIndicatorsCharts: 9) Real GDP
2019-07-05: 12:57 PM
PDF named: chrt_08_CPI.pdf Alberta Economy Indicators at a GlanceProvincial Comparisons - Pg 3
CPI
chrt_10.pdf
2.4
1.6
1.2
1.92.1
2.4 2.4
2.8
2.12.3
2.6
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
CAN NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC
(%)
\\ter-fin-fs-01.fin.gov.ab.ca\Publications\_Economics_publications\Alberta Indicators at a Glance\Source documents\: 2019-07-05_AlbertaIndicatorsCharts: 10) CPI
2019-07-05: 12:57 PM
PDF named: chrt_09_ur.pdf Alberta Economy Indicators at a GlanceProvincial Comparisons - Pg 3
Unemployment Rate
chrt_11.pdf
5.5
13.3
9.3
6.67.8
4.95.4 5.7
5.1
6.6
4.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
CAN NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC
(%)
\\ter-fin-fs-01.fin.gov.ab.ca\Publications\_Economics_publications\Alberta Indicators at a Glance\Source documents\: 2019-07-05_AlbertaIndicatorsCharts: 11) UnemploymentRate
2019-07-05: 12:57 PM
PDF named: chrt_10_er.pdf Alberta Economy Indicators at a GlanceProvincial Comparisons - Pg 3
Employment
chrt_12.pdf
2.3
0.4
1.7
3.4
1.21.6
2.5
-0.1
1.61.3
4.4
-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0
CAN NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC
(%)
\\ter-fin-fs-01.fin.gov.ab.ca\Publications\_Economics_publications\Alberta Indicators at a Glance\Source documents\: 2019-07-05_AlbertaIndicatorsCharts: 12) Employment
2019-07-05: 12:58 PM
PDF named: chrt_11_awe.pdf Alberta Economy Indicators at a GlanceProvincial Comparisons - Pg 3
Average Weekly Earnings
chrt_13.pdf
2.9 2.8
2.1
4.6
3.9
3.33.1
1.5
4.0
-0.6
3.8
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
CAN NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC
(%)
\\ter-fin-fs-01.fin.gov.ab.ca\Publications\_Economics_publications\Alberta Indicators at a Glance\Source documents\: 2019-07-05_AlbertaIndicatorsCharts: 13) AWE
2019-07-05: 12:59 PM
PDF named: chrt_12_hs.pdf Alberta Economy Indicators at a GlanceProvincial Comparisons - Pg 3
Housing Starts
chrt_14.pdf
3.99.0
21.6
-5.0
45.7
-32.9 -36.5
27.7
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
CAN ATL QC ON MB SK AB BC
(%)
\\ter-fin-fs-01.fin.gov.ab.ca\Publications\_Economics_publications\Alberta Indicators at a Glance\Source documents\: 2019-07-05_AlbertaIndicatorsCharts: 14) HS
2019-07-05: 12:59 PM
Real GDP by Industry(2018, year-over-year growth)
CPI Inflation(May 2019, year-over-year growth)
Unemployment Rate(June 2019)
Employment(June 2019, year-over-year growth)
Average Weekly Earnings(April 2019, year-over-year growth)
Housing Starts(May 2019, SAAR, year-over-year growth)
Indicators at a Glance | Treasury Board and FinancePage 3 July 5, 2019
1 Population data presented on a census year basis (July 1– June 30).2 Quarterly, average of Calgary and EdmontonYTD (year-to-date). “SA” denotes seasonally adjusted. “SAAR” denotes seasonally adjusted at annual rate. All annual data is unadjusted.
Sources: All data is from Statistics Canada except the Alberta Activity Index (Alberta Treasury Board and Finance), Housing Starts (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation), MLS Average Resale Prices (Canadian Real Estate Association), Rigs Drilling (Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors) and Bankruptcies (Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada). All historical data are subject to revision
