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Prepared by ATB Financial, Economics & Research October 1, 2015 ALBERTA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Q4 2015
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Prepared by ATB Financial, Economics & Research
October 1, 2015
ALBERTA ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK Q4 2015
1
2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15
$U
S/b
arr
el
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Daily Crude Oil Price, WTI
3
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jun'13 Jun'14 Jun'15
Alberta Canola and Wheat Prices
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 002-0043
$p
er m
etr
ic t
on
ne canola
wheat
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Aug'12 Aug'13 Aug'14 Aug'15
Alberta Housing Starts
000s
, al
l are
as,S
.A.A
.R.
Source: CMHC, Sep 9, 2015 and Statistics Canada CANSIM table 027-0054
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Jul'12 Jul'13 Jul'14 Jul'15
Total Building Permits in Alberta
$ m
illio
ns,
sea
son
ally
ad
just
ed
Source: Statistics Canada, The Daily, Sep. 9, 2015 and CANSIM table 026-0006
residential
non-residential
5
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Aug'13 Aug'14 Aug'15
Change in Employment in Alberta
Source: Statistics Canada, The Daily, Sep. 4, 2015 and CANSIM table 282-0087
00
0s
(se
aso
nal
ly a
dju
ste
d)
6
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
Jul'13 Jul'14 Jul'15
Alberta Retail Sales
$ b
illio
ns (s
easo
nally
adj
uste
d)
Source: Statistics Canada, The Daily, Sep. 23, 2015 and CANSIM table 080-0020
-6%+2%
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
Jul'13 Jul'14 Jul'15
Alberta Wholesale Trade
Source: Statistics Canada, The Daily, Sep. 21, 2015 and CANSIM table 081-0011
$ b
illi
ons
(se
aso
nally
adj
uste
d)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Jul'13 Jul'14 Jul'15
Alberta Manufacturing Shipments
$b
illio
ns (s
easo
nally
adj
uste
d)
Source: Statistics Canada, The Daily, Sep. 16, 2015, and CANSIM table 304-0015
7
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Q2'08 Q2'09 Q2'10 Q2'11 Q2'12 Q2'13 Q2'14 Q2'15
Net Interprovincial Migration to/from Alberta
ne
t in
terp
rov.
Source: Statistics Canada, The Daily, Sep. 29, 2015 and CANSIM table 051-0017
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