Alejandro Lpez-Gonzlez University of Leon (Spain)
[email protected] Maria-Jos Pieira-Mantin University of
Santiago de Compostela (Spain) [email protected] URBAN
DYNAMICS AND REAL-ESTATE SPECULATION: THE IMPACT ON THE URBAN AREAS
OF THE ATLANTIC AXIS (GALICIA,SPAIN). IGU Canterbury Meeting Urban
Geography Commission Emerging Urban Transformations Canterbury
Christ Church University August 14-20, 2011 Project: System of
indicators for the analysis of metropolitan and urban dynamics in
Spain at the beginning of XXI Century. Ministry of Science and
Technology (CSO2010-16298)
Slide 2
The context in Spain Real estate market =one of the principal
vehicles of capital accumulation of neoliberal town planning.
1997-2006 : 5.5 millions of houses. Annual ratio during ten years
of 13.3 houses for every 1,000 inhabitants. Autonomous Regions:
Laws by the System of Land and Urban Arrangement, & Territorial
Plans. Plans are useless The most important: benefits generated by
construction activity.
Slide 3
Slide 4
The resoult... In the background: Town-planning politics:
entire space was building land. In Galicia: rural building land.
Companies are those who control and use the public administrations
for their own benefit. The building land was bought by financial
institutions. The healthy economic situation of the country and low
interest rates encouraged the purchase of apartments by the
population. Important changes in infrastructure, transport, and
information technologies and communication. Citizens have not taken
part in the design of the city.
Slide 5
Housing Market in Galicia Percentage of stock over total stock
by Autonomous Community Autonomous CommunityHousing Stock (%)
Valencia Community19,35 Andalucia16,33 Catalonia15,03 Castilla-La
Mancha7,83 Madrid7,43 Canarias Islands5,95 Galicia5,71 Murcia4,39
Aragon2,68 Castilla and Leon2,46 Baleares Islands2,44 Vasc
Country1,82 Asturias1,71 Rioja1,38 Navarra0,77 Extremadura0,53
Cantabria0,42
Slide 6
Method & Sources Prices: values of use and change
Quantities: three series of flow information Housing censuses Work
project starts-Home visas. Work licenses Housing transactions Main
urban cities Small cities Main High Capacity Roads
Slide 7
There are delays that determine the supply and demand analysis
T: number of transactions L: housings as a consequence of work
licenses granted V: Home Visas K: the delays (that can acquire the
value 0 if both series are simultaneous, 1 if the explanatory
variable precedes by one year the explained one and 2 if the delay
is two years) in a municipality i and in one year t Relation
Licenses-Transactions. R 2 (2004-2010): 0.379-0.741 when K=0
0.309-0.823 when K=1 0.525-0.915 when K=2 Relation Licenses-Work
project Starts. R 2 (2002-2010): 0.631-0.870 when K=0 0.435-0.852
when K=1 0.201-0.742 when K=2
Slide 8
Slide 9
The dynamism of the urban areas in the Atlantic Axis Evolution
of housing starts, work licenses and housing transactions
Slide 10
Slide 11
Slide 12
Efficiency of the housing market T: housing transactions during
the current year L: the work licenses conceded two years ago. The
results are always higher than 0, reaching a situation of
equilibrium when the efficiency rate is equal to 1
Slide 13
Slide 14
Thank You IGU Canterbury Meeting Urban Geography Commission
Emerging Urban Transformations Canterbury Christ Church University
August 14-20, 2011
Slide 15
Slide 16
()The streets, named names of painters, are littered with
gleaming banks where no one sits down and traffic signals that
require yield. Who? The only sign of life are ubiquitous posters
for sale. They hang on every front and has not put the builder, but
their buyers ()