Initiative GREAT European Development Partners Co-organization

2050 Simulator Do you Accept this Challenge for Portugal?

Allen VASCONCELOS

2050 Simulator

Portuguese case

Allen Vasconcelos

Energy Planning Department

© Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013

The 2050 simulator is a simplified model of reality. The objective of this exercise is simply to convey, in a intuitive and educational form, the key variables of the energy sector and the way to reach its decarbonization. As a consequence, the simulator’s results should not be interpreted as exact estimations, and they do not necessarily represent EDP’s vision regarding the Energy Policy options that should be taken in the 2050 timeframe.

Disclaimer

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© Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013

Question categories selector (Prices,

Demand, Generation and Emissions)

Answer switch (Bottom – BaU

Top - disruptive)

Chart legend

Outputs selector (charts/tables)

Output charts/tables

Menu Language selector

Horizontal scroll for

additional questions

Emissions barometer

(2050 emissions vs. 1990)

The 2050 simulator allows users to view the energy sector's evolution given their forecast about future technology adoption and consumption behaviors

Your decisions

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© Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013

The path definition consists in answering 32 questions about energy prices, demand and supply evolution, and GHG emissions

Question

categories Area Question Units

Answer Question description

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

Prices

Fuels Oil price $'10/bbl 50 130 200 n.d. Oil price by 2050

Fuels Coal price $'10/ton 50 110 200 n.d. Coal price by 2050

Fuels Natural gas price $'10/Mbtu 5 11 20 n.d. Natural gas prices by 2050

Other CO2 price €'10/ton 20 100 200 n.d. CO2 price by 2050

Demand

Growth

Residential Residential non-power energy demand % 2% 1% 0% -1% Residential current non-power energy consumption from 2010 to 2050 CAGR

Residential Residential energy efficiency in electricity % 0% 25% 50% 100% Degree of fulfillment of energy efficiency potential to reduce residential power demand by 2050

Services Services non-power energy demand % 2% 1% 0% -1% Services current non-power energy consumption from 2010 to 2050 CAGR

Services Services energy efficiency in electricity % 0% 25% 50% 100% Degree of fulfillment of energy efficiency potential to reduce services power demand by 2050

Industry Industrial demand % 2% 1% 0% -1% Industrial energy consumption from 2010 to 2050 CAGR

Transport Road transports demand % 10% 5% -5% -10% Road transportation energy consumption evolution by 2050 vs. 2010

Fuel

Switching

Residential Electrification of residential energy demand % 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage of residential energy demand electrification by 2050

Services Electrification of services energy demand % 60% 70% 85% 100% Percentage of services energy demand electrification by 2050

Industry Electrification of industrial energy demand % 25% 30% 40% 50% Percentage of industrial energy demand electrification by 2050

Transport Electrification of road light transports % 10% 25% 50% 75% Percentage of road electric transports by 2050

Transport Fuel switching of road transports % 10% 25% 50% 75% Percentage fuel switching from oil to gas/biofuel of road non-electric transports by 2050

Transport Electrification of non-road transports % 10% 20% 30% 40% Percentage of non-road electric transports by 2050

Transport Fuel switching of non-road transports % 10% 25% 50% 75% Percentage fuel switching from oil to gas/biofuel of non-road non-electric transports by 2050

Installed

capacity and

generation

Power Hydroelectric generation TWh 18 20 22 24 Gross hydro power generation (including pumping) by 2050: current 12 TWh and expected ~20

TWh by 2020 (average hydro year)

Power Nuclear power MW 0 1.600 3.200 4.800 Nuclear capacity by 2050 (0, 1, 2 or 3 nuclear power plants): no current nor expected capacity by

2020

Power Onshore wind power MW 5.500 10.000 14.000 18.000 Onshore wind capacity by 2050: current 4,400 MW and ~5,300 MW expected by 2020

Power Offshore wind power MW 50 1.000 2.500 5.000 Offshore wind capacity by 2050: current 2 MW with no additional capacity expected by 2020

Power Biomass and MSW power MW 350 1.000 2.000 3.000 Biomass and MSW capacity by 2050: current 290 MW and ~370 MW expected by 2020

Power Solar PV power MW 250 2.500 5.000 10.000 Solar PV (large scale) capacity by 2050: current 130 MW and ~180 MW expected by 2020

Power Solar CSP power MW 50 2.500 5.000 10.000 Solar CSP capacity by 2050: no current capacity but ~50 MW expected by 2020

Power Geothermal power MW 50 500 1.000 2.000 Geothermal capacity by 2050: current 30 MW with no additional capacity expected by 2020

Power Ocean power MW 50 1.000 2.000 4.000 Ocean capacity by 2050: no current capacity but ~6 MW expected by 2020

Power CHP power MW 2.000 4.000 6.500 9.000 CHP capacity by 2050: current 1,800 MW and ~2,000 MW expected by 2020

Power Distributed generation power MW 250 2.500 5.000 10.000 Distributed generation capacity by 2050 (Solar PV): current 60 MW and ~320 MW expected by

2020

Power Power imports TWh 0 5 10 20 Power imports by 2050: historical values from last 5 years range 5 - 10 TWh

CO2 Emissions

Power Installed CCS capacity in the power sector MW 0 2.800 4.000 5.200 CCS power capacity by 2050 (from 0 up to 5 power plants, starting operations from 2025)

Industry Industrial processes with CCS % 0% 25% 50% 100% Percentage of industrial processes with CCS by 2050 (starting operations from 2025)

Geosequestra

tion

Emissions' reduction due to

geosequestration MtonCO2 0 1 2 3

CO2 geosequestration by 2050 (reducing GHG emissions from 0 to 3 Mton/year, starting

operations from 2025)

Your decisions: 1. Business as Usual scenario 2. Minor transformations required 3. Medium transformations

necessary 4. Scenario involving major

transformations (without breaking the laws of physics!)

5 groups of questions: 1. Prices 2. Demand growth 3. Fuel Switching 4. Generation technologies 5. CO2 capture

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© Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013

The simulator allows for immediate visualization of the path impacts along several dimensions in graph or numeric format

Graphic impact of resulting pathway

Numerical impact of resulting pathway

2050 Outputs

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© Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013

Energy flows output

Sankey graphs

Performance output

Emissions vs. Cost

Outputs also include energy flows and performance data

Your pathway

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Primary energies

Transformation into power

Final energy by sectors

Most cost-efficient pathways

© Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013

Emissions vs. Cost

% vs. ‘000 M€’10

Emissions vs. Difficulty

% vs. %

Performance graphs

Electrification

Balanced green

Fossil fuels

Nuclear

Full efficiency

Business as usual

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0 5 10 15 20 25

Cost of energy (x1000 M€’10)

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

vs. 1

99

0 (

%)

Electrification

Balanced green

Fossil fuels

Nuclear

Full efficiency

Business as usual

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% G

HG

em

issi

on

s vs

. 19

90

(%

)

Difficulty Level (%)

The simulator includes 5 pre-defined scenarios that can be compared with the user's chosen pathway

There are no right or wrong answers! Only more cost-effective ways to reduce GHG emissions

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© Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013

Minimize the difficulty of implementation

Objectives

Minimize GHG emissions

Minimize total cost of energy

The simulator's objective function is to (1) minimize greenhouse gas emissions, (2) at the lowest cost, and (3) at the lowest difficulty level

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© Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013

www.2050.edp.pt

Do you accept this challenge?

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© Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013 11

© Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013

Associated Partners

Media Partners

Sponsors

GREAT European Development Partners

Institutional Partners

© Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013

http://www.projectgreat.eu