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American International Group, Inc. Third Quarter 2012 Results Conference Call Presentation November 2 nd , 2012
Transcript
Page 1: American International Group, Inc. · AIG Property Casualty –Commercial Insurance Results Results reflect continued business mix shift and enhanced risk selection. ($ in millions)

American International Group, Inc.

Third Quarter 2012 Results

Conference Call Presentation

November 2nd, 2012

Page 2: American International Group, Inc. · AIG Property Casualty –Commercial Insurance Results Results reflect continued business mix shift and enhanced risk selection. ($ in millions)

2

Cautionary Statement Regarding Projections and

Other Information About Future Events

This document and the remarks made within this presentation may include, and officers and representatives of American

International Group, Inc. (AIG) may from time to time make, projections, goals, assumptions and statements that may

constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These

projections, goals, assumptions and statements are not historical facts but instead represent only AIG’s belief regarding

future events, many of which, by their nature, are inherently uncertain and outside AIG’s control. These projections, goals,

assumptions and statements include statements preceded by, followed by or including words such as “believe,”

“anticipate,” “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “view,” “target,” or “estimate”. It is possible that AIG’s actual results and financial

condition will differ, possibly materially, from the results and financial condition indicated in these projections, goals,

assumptions and statements. Factors that could cause AIG’s actual results to differ, possibly materially, from those in the

specific projections, goals, assumptions and statements include: actions by credit rating agencies; changes in market

conditions; the occurrence of catastrophic events, both natural and man-made; significant legal proceedings; the timing

and applicable requirements of any new regulatory framework to which AIG is subject as a savings and loan holding

company and, if such a determination is made, as a systemically important financial institution (SIFI); concentrations in AIG’s

investment portfolios, including its municipal bond portfolio; judgments concerning casualty insurance underwriting and

reserves; judgments concerning the recognition of deferred tax assets; judgments concerning deferred policy acquisition

costs recoverability; judgments concerning the recoverability of aircraft values in International Lease Finance Corporation’s

(ILFC) fleet; and such other factors as are discussed in Part I, Item 2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial

Condition and Results of Operations (MD&A), in Part II, Item 1A. Risk Factors in AIG’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the

quarter ended September 30, 2012 and in Part II, Item 1A. Risk Factors in AIG’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter

ended June 30, 2012, and in Part I, Item 1A. Risk Factors and in Part II, Item 7. MD&A of AIG’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for

the year ended December 31, 2011, as amended by Amendment No. 1 and Amendment No. 2 on Forms 10-K/A filed on

February 27, 2012 and March 30, 2012, respectively, and Exhibit 99.2, MD&A of AIG’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed on May

4, 2012.

AIG is not under any obligation (and expressly disclaims any obligation) to update or alter any projections, goals,

assumptions or other statements, whether written or oral, that may be made from time to time, whether as a result of new

information, future events or otherwise. This document and the remarks made orally may also contain certain non-GAAP

financial measures. The reconciliation of such measures to the most comparable GAAP measures in accordance with

Regulation G is included in the Third Quarter 2012 Financial Supplement available in the Investor Information section of AIG's

corporate website, www.aig.com.

Page 3: American International Group, Inc. · AIG Property Casualty –Commercial Insurance Results Results reflect continued business mix shift and enhanced risk selection. ($ in millions)

3

Third Quarter 2012 Key Themes

Highlights Noteworthy Items

Capital Management Activities

$8.0 billion shares repurchased ($13.0 billion YTD)

Sold $2.0 billion of AIA shares ($6.1 billion remaining value at Sept. 30, 2012)

UST ownership in AIG reduced to 15.9%

$4.0 billion amended bank credit facility

$2.3 billion replacement unsecured credit facility at ILFC

Federal Reserve Supervision Begins Fed regulation as a savings and loan holding company

Notification of consideration for a potential non-bank SIFI determination

AIG Property Casualty Underwriting

NPW growth driven by Consumer Insurance and other high value lines

Global Commercial rates +6.2% (+8.4% in the U.S.)

Accident year loss ratio, as adjusted, continues to improve

CAT losses of $261 million globally

Net prior year adverse development of $145 million

AIG Life and Retirement Results

Positive equity market impact on reserves/DAC

Adverse impact from noteworthy charges

Variable annuities sales up 28% from 3Q11

Base yields and net investment spreads decline sequentially

Stable trends at Mortgage Guaranty

Growth in new insurance written (+$2.2 billion from 2Q12)

Delinquency ratio 70 bps from 2Q12 to 9.6%

Net prior year favorable development of $44 million

Page 4: American International Group, Inc. · AIG Property Casualty –Commercial Insurance Results Results reflect continued business mix shift and enhanced risk selection. ($ in millions)

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Financial Highlights

Third Quarter

($ in millions, except earnings and book value per share) 2012 2011

Inc.

(Dec.)

Revenues $17,648 $12,719 39%

Net income attributable to AIG 1,856 (3,990) NM

After-tax operating income attributable to AIG $1,641 $(2,996) NM

Diluted earnings per common share:

Net Income attributable to AIG $1.13 $(2.10) NM

After-tax operating income attributable to AIG $1.00 $(1.58) NM

Book value per common share $68.87 $42.60 62%

Book value per common share - Ex. AOCI $61.49 $39.47 56%

Page 5: American International Group, Inc. · AIG Property Casualty –Commercial Insurance Results Results reflect continued business mix shift and enhanced risk selection. ($ in millions)

5

Improvement in insurance operations and valuation adjustments drive earnings growth.

After-tax Operating Income (Loss)

Third Quarter

($ in millions except per share amounts) 2012 2011

Insurance operations

AIG Property Casualty $786 $492

AIG Life and Retirement 826 471

Mortgage Guaranty (reported in Other) 3 (98)

Total Insurance Operations 1,615 865

Aircraft Leasing 39 (1,317)

Direct Investment book 428 119

Global Capital Markets 190 (174)

Change in fair value of AIA (including realized gain in 2012) 527 (2,315)

Change in fair value of Maiden Lane III 330 (931)

Interest expense (416) (406)

Corporate expenses and eliminations (166) (648)

Pre-tax operating income attributable to AIG 2,547 (4,807)

Income tax (expense) / benefit (901) 1,975

Noncontrolling interest – Treasury - (145)

Other noncontrolling interest (5) (19)

After-tax operating income attributable to AIG $1,641 $(2,996)

After-tax operating income per diluted common share $1.00 $(1.58)

Page 6: American International Group, Inc. · AIG Property Casualty –Commercial Insurance Results Results reflect continued business mix shift and enhanced risk selection. ($ in millions)

6

$50.81

$61.49

$2.72

$7.38

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

December 31, 2011 September 30, 2012

BVPS, ex AOCI AOCI

Book Value Per Share

$68.87

$53.53

Strong Capital Position

1) Includes AIG Loans, Mortgages, Notes and Bonds Payable, SAFG Inc. Notes and Bonds Payable, and Liabilities connected to the trust preferred stock.

Execution of $13.0 billion in share repurchases year-to-date increased BVPS by $6.47/share.

$0.9

$101.7

$9.4

$16.2

September 30, 2012

Financial Debt

Hybrids

Common Equity

Non-controlling

interests

$128.1

Capital Structure

Financial Debt + Hybrids / Capitalization 19.9%

Financial Debt / Capitalization 12.6%

(1)

($ in billions, except per share data)

+29%

Page 7: American International Group, Inc. · AIG Property Casualty –Commercial Insurance Results Results reflect continued business mix shift and enhanced risk selection. ($ in millions)

7

Financial Flexibility – A Source of Strength

Parent liquidity sources total $11.6 billion

at September 30, 2012.

Liquidity position reflects completion of

$13.0 billion of share repurchases in 2012.

Bank credit facility amended and

increased by $1.0 billion to $4.0 billion.

Insurance Company Distributions

Parent Liquidity

$629$1,000

$519

$324

$1,606

$807

0

750

1,500

2,250

3,000

4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12

AIG Property Casualty AIG Life and Retirement

7.1

$3.5

$1.0

September 30, 2012

Available capacity

under Contingent

Liquidity Facilities

Available capacity

under Syndicated

Credit Facility

Cash & Short-term

investments

($ in billions)

($ in millions)

$953

Distributions approximate $5.3 billion year-

to-date and were $4.0 billion through

September 30, 2012.

Distributions received in October 2012 of

$1.25 billion ($800 million from AIG Property

Casualty and $454 million from AIG Life

and Retirement).

Future annual payments expected to be

$4 – 5 billion.

$11.6

$2,606

*

* Represents non-cash distribution of municipal securities.

$1,326

$75

1) $500 million contingent liquidity facility entered into in October 2011 will expire unless AIG requests to enter into put option arrangements by November 9, 2012. AIG does not currently intend to enter into any

put option arrangements under this contingent liquidity facility.

2) Reduced by $500 million on October 5, 2012 as a result of the termination of the 364-day facility ($1.5 billion) and the amendment of the size of the 4-year facility from $3 billion to $4 billion.

(1)

(2)

Page 8: American International Group, Inc. · AIG Property Casualty –Commercial Insurance Results Results reflect continued business mix shift and enhanced risk selection. ($ in millions)

8

AIG Property Casualty – Consolidated Financial Highlights

30.3 33.6 30.3 33.6

75.6 71.468.4 66.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

3Q11 3Q12 3Q11 3Q12

Expense Ratio Loss Ratio

98.7 100.1

Decrease in accident year loss ratio, as

adjusted, reflects shift in mix of business to

higher value lines and geographies,

improved pricing and enhanced risk

selection tools.

Increase in expenses was primarily driven by

higher acquisition costs due to the shift to

more profitable, stable lines (approximately

2.5 points) and continued strategic

investments.

Net prior year adverse reserve development

of $145 million driven by environmental,

primary casualty and workers’ compensation.

CAT losses of $261 million globally in 3Q12

include $121 million of crop insurance losses

from U.S. droughts and $98 million from

Hurricane Isaac.

Operating income included net investment

income of $1.2 billion in 3Q12, up 20% from

3Q11. Growth reflects positive marks on

recently acquired securities.

Global Combined Ratios

105.9 105.0

Calendar YearAccident Year,

as adjusted(1)

1) Combined ratio excluding catastrophe losses, reinstatement premiums, prior year development, net of premium adjustments, and the impact of reserve discount.

Operating income

($ in millions)

3Q11 3Q12

$492 $786

Page 9: American International Group, Inc. · AIG Property Casualty –Commercial Insurance Results Results reflect continued business mix shift and enhanced risk selection. ($ in millions)

9

$2,393 $2,195

$998 $1,063

$877 $856

$911 $968

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

3Q11 3Q12

Casualty Property Specialty Financial lines

Net Premiums Written

$5,082$5,179

Combined Ratios

Global commercial insurance rates increased

+6.2% over the prior year period (+8.4% for the

U.S.) led by Property at +12.1% and Workers’

Compensation at +8.9%.

Commercial Insurance continues to

demonstrate underwriting discipline, focusing

resources on higher value, profitable lines of

business and geographies.

Commercial CAT losses total $239 million.

Current accident year loss ratio, as adjusted,

reflects focus on risk selection and price

increases.

AIG Property Casualty – Commercial Insurance ResultsResults reflect continued business mix shift and enhanced risk selection.

($ in millions)

24.3 27.8 24.3 27.8

82.9 79.374.2 71.7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

3Q11 3Q12 3Q11 3Q12

Expense Ratio Loss Ratio

Calendar YearAccident Year,

as adjusted(1)

107.298.5

107.199.5

Constant $ growth rate of -0.2% (-1.9% incl. FX)

1) Combined ratio excluding catastrophe losses, reinstatement premiums, prior year development, net of premium adjustments, and the impact of reserve discount.

Page 10: American International Group, Inc. · AIG Property Casualty –Commercial Insurance Results Results reflect continued business mix shift and enhanced risk selection. ($ in millions)

10

$1,762 $1,819

$1,717 $1,811

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

3Q11 3Q12

Accident & Health Personal Lines

$3,630$3,479

Combined Ratios

Consumer Insurance NPW was 40% of total

AIG Property Casualty NPW for year to date

2012, reflecting growth across the business

using multiple distribution channels.

Direct Marketing accounts for 15% of

Consumer’s overall net premiums written for

the three- and nine-month periods ended

September 30, 2012.

Consumer CAT losses total $22 million.

Expense ratio reflects increased acquisition

costs, including direct marketing expenses.

AIG Property Casualty – Consumer Insurance ResultsConsumer growth reflects continued progress on global growth strategies.

($ in millions)

38.7 40.5 38.7 40.5

63.3 58.3 58.9 57.7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

3Q11 3Q12 3Q11 3Q12

Expense Ratio Loss Ratio

Calendar YearAccident Year,

as adjusted(1)

102.0 97.698.8 98.2

Net Premiums Written

Constant $ growth rate of 6.2% (4.3% incl. FX)

1) Combined ratio excluding catastrophe losses, reinstatement premiums, prior year development, net of premium adjustments, and the impact of reserve discount.

Page 11: American International Group, Inc. · AIG Property Casualty –Commercial Insurance Results Results reflect continued business mix shift and enhanced risk selection. ($ in millions)

11

AIG Property Casualty – Investment Returns and Asset Allocation

Asset Allocation(2)

Invested Assets as of Sept. 30, 2012 - $127.9 billion Invested Assets as of Dec. 31, 2011 - $125.0 billion

Net Investment Income

1) Includes income/loss from mutual funds, real estate, equity method investments and mark-to-market gains and losses, net of investment expenses.

2) Excludes intercompany assets.

Obligations of states,

municipalities, and political subdivisions

23%

Non-U.S. governments

18%

Corporate debt27%

Structured securities

10%

Alternatives10%

Cash and short-term

investments6%

Equities, Trading &

other6%

Obligations of states,

municipalities, and political subdivisions

26%

Non-U.S. governments

18%Corporate debt26%

Structured securities

9%

Alternatives10%

Cash and short-term

investments4%

Equities, Trading &

other7%

($ in millions) 2012 2011

Inc.

(Dec.) 2012 2011

Inc.

(Dec.)

Interest and dividends 1,000$ 970$ 3% 2,981$ 2,779$ 7%

Alternative investments 87 55 58% 327 457 (28%)

Other, net(1) 140 (1) NM 295 109 171%

Net investment income 1,227$ 1,024$ 20% 3,603$ 3,345$ 8%

Yield 3.88% 3.26% 3.81% 3.60%

Year-to-DateThird Quarter

Page 12: American International Group, Inc. · AIG Property Casualty –Commercial Insurance Results Results reflect continued business mix shift and enhanced risk selection. ($ in millions)

12

$252 $249

$219

$577

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

3Q11 3Q12

($ in millions)

Life Insurance Retirement Services

Operating Income

$471

Operating income in 3Q12 reflected the

positive impact from equity markets and

stronger partnership returns.

Noteworthy charges totaling $196 million

in 3Q12 related to death claims reserve,

GIC reserve increase and life restructuring

charges.

Net flows in 3Q12 reflected lower fixed

annuity deposits, partially offset by strong

variable annuity and mutual fund net

flows.

Variable annuities sales increased 28%

from 3Q11.

Total AUM were $275.5 billion up 10% from

a year ago due to the impact of equity

markets.

AIG Life and Retirement – Financial Highlights

Net flows

$826

($ in millions)

+75%

Positive equity markets and noteworthy charges impact results.

$654 $673

$168 $110

($329)

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12

Page 13: American International Group, Inc. · AIG Property Casualty –Commercial Insurance Results Results reflect continued business mix shift and enhanced risk selection. ($ in millions)

13

AIG Life and Retirement – Investment Returns and Asset Allocation

Asset Allocation(4)

Invested Assets as of Sept. 30, 2012 - $200.2 billion Invested Assets as of Dec. 31, 2011 - $189.8 billion

Net Investment Income

Obligations of states,

municipalities, and political subdivisions

2%Non-U.S.

governments2%

Corporate debt58%

Structured securities

19%

Alternatives6%

Loans8%

Cash and short-term

investments3%

Equities, Trading &

other2%

Obligations of states,

municipalities, and political subdivisions

1%Non-U.S.

governments1%

Corporate debt59%

Structured securities

19%

Alternatives7%

Loans9%

Cash and short-term

investments2%

Equities, Trading &

other2%

1) Includes income/loss from mutual funds, real estate, equity method investments and mark-to-market gains and losses, net of investment expenses.

2) Includes the investment return on surplus other than alternative investment or yield enhancement activities. Quarterly results are annualized.

3) Represents the base yields and the incremental effect to base yield on investments in hedge funds, private equity funds, gains on ML II and income from calls and prepayment fees. Quarterly results are annualized.

4) Excludes intercompany assets.

($ in millions)2012 2011

Inc.

(Dec.) 2012 2011

Inc.

(Dec.)

Interest and dividends 2,293$ 2,247$ 2% 7,285$ 6,671$ 9%

Alternative investments 170 89 91% 622 811 (23%)

Call and tender income 72 67 7% 104 198 (47%)

Other, net(1) 62 (108) NM (8) (170) NM

Net investment income 2,597$ 2,295$ 13% 8,003$ 7,510$ 7%

Base Yield(2) 5.38% 5.49% 5.46% 5.31%

Total Yield(3) 5.86% 5.21% 6.03% 5.73%

Third Quarter Year-to-Date

Page 14: American International Group, Inc. · AIG Property Casualty –Commercial Insurance Results Results reflect continued business mix shift and enhanced risk selection. ($ in millions)

14

Base net investment spreads declined in 3Q12

reflecting lower base yields.

Sequential decline in base yields reflect:

– Lower accretion income on structured

securities.

– Lower income on certain equity method

investments.

– Lower yields on new purchases due to lower

interest rates, credit spread tightening and

higher credit quality purchases.

At September 30, 2012, a total of 61% of

account values are at contractual minimum

guaranteed crediting rates vs. 41% at the end

of 3Q11.

Base Yields and Net spreads decreased in the Third Quarter.

AIG Life and Retirement – Base Yields and Net Investment Spreads

1.56%

1.66%

1.90%1.95%

1.81%

1.75% 1.80%

1.95% 1.99%

1.83%

1.20%

1.42%

1.64%

1.86%

2.08%

3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12

VALIC WNL

5.28% 5.28%5.30%

5.33%

5.17%

5.13%5.08%

5.13%5.17%

4.99%

4.50%

4.70%

4.90%

5.10%

5.30%

5.50%

3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12

Base Yields(1)

Base Net Investment Spreads(1)

1) Excludes alternatives and other enhancements.

Western National

Page 15: American International Group, Inc. · AIG Property Casualty –Commercial Insurance Results Results reflect continued business mix shift and enhanced risk selection. ($ in millions)

15

AIG Life and Retirement – Proactively Addressing Sustained Low Interest Rates

Opportunistic investments in structured securities,

redeployment of cash in 2011and disciplined

management of interest crediting rates mitigated the

low rate impact on 2012.

Estimated annual decline excludes impact of asset

sales program to utilize capital loss tax carryforwards

completed in 2012. Reinvestment of proceeds at lower

yields reduces operating income, however, we have

captured real economic benefits. Estimated decline in

income is $33 million in 2013, $29 million in 2014 and

$26 million in 2015.

No significant DAC or statutory capital impacts

anticipated due to low interest rate environment.

Effect of Low Rates on Annual Earnings(1)2012 Management Actions

Continued disciplined

approach to new business

pricing.

Actively managing renewal

rates.

Re-priced certain life products

to reflect current low rate

environment.

Re-filed certain products to

continue lowering minimum rate

guarantees

1) Assumes the 10-Year Treasury Rate remains at 1.63% ( rate as of 9/30/12) and current credit spreads. Assumes future reinvestment of base portfolio cash flows at yields of 3.75% - 4.25%. Estimates are sensitive to future economic assumptions and it is possible actual results will differ, possibly materially, from estimates shown above due to market conditions, company actions or other factors.

$ in millions 2013 2014 2015

Estimated impact on pre-

tax operating income

($60) –

($80)

($140) –

($180)

($250) –

($300)

Page 16: American International Group, Inc. · AIG Property Casualty –Commercial Insurance Results Results reflect continued business mix shift and enhanced risk selection. ($ in millions)

16

Mortgage Guaranty – Stable Trends New insurance written (NIW)(1) of $10.7 billion

in 3Q 2012 with consistently high quality risks.

Vintage FICO LTV

2010 760 90

2011 757 91

Q1’12 760 91

Q2’12 759 91

Q3’12 758 91

In 3Q 2012, Mortgage Guaranty generated

operating income of $3 million, driven by

favorable reserve development of $44 million

partially offset by continued high levels of new

delinquencies.

1) New insurance written – original principal balance of loans (First-lien)

14.1% 13.9%

11.4%

10.3%9.6%

9.0%

11.0%

13.0%

15.0%

3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12

Primary Delinquency (DQ) Ratio (%)

$2.6

$5.6

$10.7

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

3Q10 3Q11 3Q12

NIW

$(98)

$(25)

$8

$43

$3

$(125)

$(75)

$(25)

$25

$75

3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12

Operating Income ($ in millions)

($ in billions)

DQ Aging 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12

% Over 12 Months 47% 44% 42% 40%

Page 17: American International Group, Inc. · AIG Property Casualty –Commercial Insurance Results Results reflect continued business mix shift and enhanced risk selection. ($ in millions)

17

Appendix

Page 18: American International Group, Inc. · AIG Property Casualty –Commercial Insurance Results Results reflect continued business mix shift and enhanced risk selection. ($ in millions)

18

Legacy AIGFP: What We’ve Accomplished

% Reduction

Derivatives BookDecember

31, 2008 (1)

December

31, 2011

September

30, 2012

2008 –

2012

2011 –

2012

Market Derivatives ~1,450 131 112 92% 15%

Multi-sector CDS ~13 6 4 69% 33%

Corporate Arbitrage ~52 12 12 77% 0%

Regulatory Capital

CDS~245 7 1 >99% 86%

Stable Value Wraps ~40 20 19 53% 5%

Total Legacy

Derivatives (4)~$1,800 $176 $148 92% 16%

1) 2008 net notional amounts are approximate.

2) The Gross Vega is calculated as the sum of all the individual positions’ absolute vegas as if each position is not hedged. Although AIGFP’s books are almost completely hedged on a net Vega basis, the Gross Vega measure will help monitor how well the volatility risk is

being eliminated. The interest rate option vega denotes the change in value due to a 0.1% increase in normal volatility. For other derivatives (i.e., Equity, Commodity and FX option), vega denotes the change in value due to a 1% increase in lognormal volatility.

3) Gross ATE measures the impact of a three-notch downgrade. 2008 Gross ATE includes $1.3 billion attributable to GICs.

4) Excludes $17.8 billion and $10.2 billion of intercompany derivatives in 2012 and 2011, respectively.

AIG will continue to de-risk the legacy AIGFP portfolio while ensuring the firm retains the

maximum economic benefit possible.

Net Notional Exposures ($ billion)

(1)

35,200

1,700

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

2008 2012

1.25

0.020

0.5

1

1.5

2008 2012

10.4

0.30

5

10

15

2008 2012

98%

Reduction

97%

Reduction

95%

Reduction

Gross Vega ($ billion)(2)

Gross Automatic Termination Event

($ billion)(3)

Position Count

18

Page 19: American International Group, Inc. · AIG Property Casualty –Commercial Insurance Results Results reflect continued business mix shift and enhanced risk selection. ($ in millions)

19

(1)Type

Estimated

Average

Life

Description

Market

Derivatives

5.3 years

AIG Derisking Activities and portfolio hedging - ~$81 bn:

Aggregate Value at Risk on Market Derivatives is effectively zero at a 95% confidence level

Derivatives primarily facilitate hedging of the assets and liabilities of the DIB program as well as affiliate

companies’ ordinary course risk management activity

7.7 years

3rd Party Client Trades - ~$31 bn:

Aggregate Value at Risk on Market Derivatives is effectively zero at a 95% confidence level

Third-party trades primarily intermediated and represent ~$31 bn of total remaining notional

Bulk of remaining trades expected to remain until maturity as they have been intermediated to preserve

economic value or provide attractive funding

Stable

Value

Wraps

4.1 years No material realized losses even through market stress of 2008

Majority expected to be moved to regulated insurance entity during the fourth quarter of 2012

Multi-sector

CDS 5.8 years

$ 580 million profit contribution since 12/31/08

Managed to retain significant future upside

- Where economics are compelling will continue to unwind trades

Corporate

Arbitrage 3.4 years

$1.89 billion profit contribution since 12/31/08

Vast majority of notional has been intermediated to preserve economics while eliminating contingent

liquidity

Third-party credit review confirms no expected losses even in stress scenarios

Regulatory

Capital

CDS0.2 years

$251 million profit contribution since 12/31/08 on termination of related mezzanine and hedges

Third-party credit review confirms no expected losses even in stress scenarios

Expect remaining positions to be called when they lose their capital benefits

Legacy AIGFP: Where We’re Going Actively managing the portfolio for maximum profit contribution and limited risk.


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