American Security Quarterly - V2 Issue 3

7/27/2019 American Security Quarterly - V2 Issue 3

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www.AmericanSecurityProject.org 1100 New York Avenue, NW Suite 710W Washington, DC

American Security QuarterlyVision, Strategy, DialogueJuly 2013

V.2 Issue 3

BGen Stephen A. Cheney USMC (Ret.):

Americas National Labs Critical to Energy Security

Holland:

Why Oil Prices Will Remain High Despite the U.S. Oil Boom

BGen. John Adams USA (Ret.):

Cyber Tet and Vulnerabilities to the U.S. Deense Industrial BaseCole:American Competitiveness must be a priority in Washington

Fojtik: Bringing Russia in rom the Cold

Meltzer: Climate Change and Instability in the SahelWinikof: Will the R&D ax Credit Spur Innovation?Joyce: Oil Dependency: a Subtle but Serious Treat

Lodge: More Action Needed to Reduce Nuclear Dangers

Wallin: Engagement: What does it Mean or Public Diplomacy?Mull: Disinormation in Public DiplomacyGeraghty: India and Australia: An Emerging Partnership in the Indian Ocean?Engebretson: Crating a New Policy or the Crisis in Egypt (No, Not the Political One

Freear: Looking at the lessons since Black Hawk Down


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AMERICAN SECURITY PROJECT

Over the past quarter, ASP has continued to examine a host o issues and their implications or our nationsecurity. From American Competitiveness to Nuclear Strategy to Public Diplomacy, we have published a widarray o articles on what we eel are the most pressing matters in the security dialogue o our nation. While itnot an issue o guns and bombs we here at ASP eel that state o our energy security-our ability to act in ooreign policy independently o how we use energy domestically-is paramount to the security o our natio

One such energy issue I would especially like to draw your attention to is the state o American energy-nameoil production and gasoline prices.

In 2012, U.S. domestic oil production surpassed that o any year within the past 15. And yet, crude oil angasoline prices remain near historic highs. So ar, increased domestic production has not been large enougto make an impact on prices which are set by global supply and demand. In addition, oil use producgreenhouse gas emissions, directly leading to climate change. As regular readers know, climate change presenclear national security implications.

For more on how booming domestic and global production prices remain high, see ASPs 2013 Report Cauand Eect: U.S. Gasoline Prices. It highlights how little impact that U.S. production has on global oil pricand the direct link between the cost o crude oil and American pump prices.

Since January o 2009 U.S. oil production has increased by 34% - an unprecedented increase. Up to nowthis rise has only accounted or 1.5% o the total global increase in crude oil production. In addition, U.S oconsumption has dropped by 15%.

Unortunately, thats not the whole story. Te global demand or oil has continued to rise.

As Americans we cannot continue to participate in a myopic view o oil and gasoline demand. Our uctuatioin both supply and demand do not control the global market.

All o this combined to show how 2012 saw the simultaneous growth o domestic oil production andsignicant (approximately 8%) increase in American gasoline prices. While we may be transitioning toperiod where we are not dependent on oreign sources o oil, that is not the promised land we were supposto see.

In the end, we must decrease our dependency on oil as a source o uel in order to enhance our competitiveneand security. Investment in renewable energy sources and biouels are crucial to helping break the hold oil hon our economy and national security.

I hope this preview whets your appetite or the truly thoughtul and comprehensive articles included in thour latest edition o American Security Quarterly.

BGen Stephen A. Cheney USMC (Ret.)CEO American Security Project

American Security Quarterly - edited by Wes Reichart


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CONENSAmerican Competitiveness

American Competitiveness must be a priority in Washington 6

August Cole

Bare Bases on Foreign Lands Te First Step in Deense Efciency? 7Adin Dobkin

Corporate ax Reorm: Is erritorial the Solution? 8Justin Winikof

Inrastructure Investment Greatly Needed or Competitiveness and Security 9Wes Reichart

Te SEM Jobs Shortall Is a National Security Shortcoming We Can Fix 11Justin Yarros

Cyber Legislation Needed to Protect American Competitiveness 11Ben Secrist

High-Skilled Immigration Reorm Needed to Enhance Competitiveness 13Wes Reichart

Bigger political threat lurks behind sequester impact debate 14

August Cole

Will the R&D ax Credit Spur Innovation? 15Justin Winikof

Climate and Energy

Oil Dependency: a Subtle but Serious Treat 16William Joyce

Climate Change and Instability in the Sahel 17Evan Meltzer

Te Carbon Bubble: What We Know and Why You Should Care 19Rory Johnston


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Why Im Done alking About Energy Security 20Andrew Holland

Americas National Labs Critical to Energy Security 22BGen. Stephen A. Cheney USMC (Ret.)

Hydrogen as an Energy Carrier: What It Is and Why It Matters 23Kareem Chin

Why Oil Prices Will Remain High Despite the U.S. Oil Boom 24Andrew Holland

Te Arctics icking ime Bomb 26William Joyce

Nuclear SecurityMore Action Needed to Reduce Nuclear Dangers 28erri S. Lodge

Red Line Risks 28Eric Harris Bernstein

East Coast Missile Deense Site: is it Necessary? 29Chelsea Sanchez

SSBN(X): Ohio Ballistic Missile Nuclear Submarine Replacement Program,a Question o Numbers 30Chris Smith

Public Diplomacy and Strategic Communications

Engagement: What does it Mean or Public Diplomacy? 32Matthew Wallin

Greasing the Wheels: Canadian Public Diplomacy 33Katrina rost

Disinormation in Public Diplomacy 34Christian Mull

War o the Sot Powers 35Matthew Wallin


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Can Russia Export Sot Power? 36Matthew Wallin

National Security Strategy

Leave Soldiering to the Proessional Soldiers 38BGen. Stephen A. Cheney USMC (Ret.)

India and Australia: An Emerging Partnership in the Indian Ocean? 39Colin Geraghty

Bringing Russia in rom the Cold 40Robert Fojtik

Strategy or Deense Savings: Reduce Number o 4-Star Generals 42Wes Reichart

Dangerous Bedellows in the Crime-errorism Nexus 43Ollie Engebretson

Asymmetric Operations

Warning Signs in the aliban Push or Diplomacy 45Ollie Engebretson

Cyber Tet and Vulnerabilities to the U.S. Deense Industrial Base 46BGen. John Adams

Crating a New Policy or the Crisis in Egypt (No, Not the Political One) 47Ollie Engebretson

Looking at the lessons since Black Hawk Down 49Matt Freear

Te Potential Rise in Sarin Manuacturing Among Non-State Actors 50

Chris Smith

Sarin Manuacturing by Non-State Actors: A Possible Security Nightmare 51Chris Smith

Further Reading 53


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AMERICANCOMPEIIVENESS

American Competitiveness mustbe a priority in Washington

August Cole

Flashpoint BlogMay 6, 2013

Many o the best solutions to strengthen Americancompetitiveness are not new.

Te Hart-Rudman Commission, or example, morethan a decade ago proposed signicantly raising in-vestment in science education because o the obvious

benets to U.S. national security, among other rea-sons.

Yet such seemingly sensible measures still remain outo reach or policymakers. No matter the obvious,and increasingly urgent, signs in the opening years othe 21st Century that a national approach is neededto shore up everything rom inrastructure to scienceand engineering education in order to strengthen

America.

According to Sean Kay, a proessor at Ohio WesleyanUniversity, America lacks the unity o purpose andstrategic ocus that ollowed the 1957 surprise o theSoviet Union sending the Sputniksatellite into space.

Te United States seems to be suering strategic pa-ralysis, unable to agree on what the shiting trends in

global politics mean or the American uture, Kawrote in the latest issue o the journal Survivalin harticle, Americas SputnikMoments.

(Survival is published by the International Instituor Strategic Studies. Te author o this blog post ismember o the IISS.)

Te years ollowing the Sputnik orbit saw proouninvestment and bureaucratic initiative that led to esuing establishment o NASA and DARPAs predcessor agency, or example. Such eats o creation aliterally unimaginable today in a time when growingovernment programs beyond deense carries immense political liability and broad bipartisan agrement on acute issues is as likely as snow alling on thBeltway in July.

Spending on education, particularly science and engineering but also oreign language training, surgepost-Sputnikbecause o the condence that this kino allocation o taxpayer dollars would yield hureturns in the uture. National Science Foundatiospending rose rom $40 million in 1958 to $500 mlion in 1968, Kay points out. Tat kind o convition that government spending in science is a souninvestment is missing today.

What is missing across the political spectrum issense that ideology should be inormed by basic actnot the converse. As is oten said, the nice thing aboscience and acts is that they are true whether one blieves them or not, Kay wrote.

Importantly, the Sputnikshock was seen as an issuo national security more than a scientic or techncal hiccup in Americas national trajectory. Te importance o space to Americas deense was obvioto everyone rom President Dwight D. Eisenhowto Congress.

Similarly Americans competitiveness needs to be seeas more than just an economic issue, as it is oteramed. It is a national security issue.

Ater more than a decade o war and historic leve
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o deense spending, the U.S. can no longer counton its military might as the best measure o its globalinuence. I anything, urther reliance creates strate-gic liability. It does not have to be. Americas strengthcomes rom many pillars, including education, thepolitical system, immigration policy, the deense in-

dustrial base and others. However, most o these areunder threat not rom an external oe, but rom ourown mismanagement and lack o strategic vision.

See the American Security Project Report AmericanCompetitiveness: An Issue o National Security.

Improving American competitiveness starts with re-raming the national security debate. It is time to takeon disparate issues that are at the core o the Ameri-can system and address them with a sense o common

purpose. What is also important now is agreeing thisis an urgent issue.

Tat concord can be an important moment o recog-nition o the seriousness o our current situation. Testeps that should ollow are just as clear today as they

were to Americas leaders more than 50 years ago.

Bare Bases on Foreign Lands TeFirst Step in Deense Eciency?

Adin Dobkin

Flashpoint BlogJuly 1, 2013

Depending on whom you ask, the United States cur-rently maintains a orce o nearly 300,000 troopsstationed overseas. Although a majority o these in-

dividuals are ghting in the War on error, the USalso actively maintains ully staed bases in relativelystable and riendly areas such as Germany, Australia,Norway, and Italy. When considering this act in thelight o imminent budget cuts, a logical area o im-provement would be the surgical removal o perma-nent troop installations in non-critical areas.

Nearly one hal (approximately 135,000 acknowl-edged troops) are stationed on non-warzone oreignbases and in international waters. It has been esti-mated that the maintenance o these troops and basescost $250 billion annually a signicant number orany operation.

I the vast majority o these troops are not currentlyinvolved in warzone operations, what purpose dothey serve to the US deense policy? For the mostpart, they act as a political psychological show opower and condence in their respective areas. Teydemonstrate that the United States can and will be-come active in engagements against our allies. In ad-dition, it has been argued that the troops can act as aquick reaction orce in the event o nearby conictssuch as in the Middle East. Despite these assurances,

their critical role has oten times been overstated bycertain groups.

For all the seemingly positive arguments in avor othis presence, it is not as clear cut as one might ini-tially imagine. First, the existence o these troops israrely developed to accommodate changing geopo-litical conditions. Te size and continuation o thesebases are static throughout the years, despite a shit-ing regional ocus. In many parts o Europe, they

are considered a Cold War relic, regardless o theircontinuous stafng.

Second, the quick reaction orce that stas thesebases is not always combat ready. I regional conict

were to erupt in the area, rapid deployment orcessuch as the Army Rangers and Airborne Corps wouldbe more suitable or the conditions that the typicaltroops ound at the bases. Tese units are capable odeploying in 18 hours regardless o the mission.

Lastly, US troops simply arent always needed in theseareas. I one keeps in mind that rapid deploymentorces would be used or mid to large scale operationsin the Middle East, European based conicts couldbe handled with ease by our NAO allies. I troops

were eventually required to enter the area, our ullymaintained bases would not have a distinct advantage
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over other orms o establishments.

Converting these ully operational bases into barebases would be a valid streamlining measure that

would continue our operational readiness or validconicts as well as save a signicant amount o money

or more pressing matters. A ully implemented barebase structure would utilize a military caretaker staduring peacetime to ensure that the base [has] mini-mum essential acilities to house, sustain, and supportoperations to include a stabilized runway, taxiways,and aircrat parking areas. I required, combat andsupport units would be capable o deploying to thebase during wartime with little to no warning or in-rastructure development required. For many o ourbases in stable regions, this would remove millionso dollars spend on maintaining ull staed structurethat may never be used.

A potential compromise to a ull bare base structurecould include the development o more joint militaryacilities. Tese bases could prove to be ruitul ordiplomatic relations in areas where a strong US pres-ence has been called into question by the local popu-lation. Bases maintained by a oreign sta could alsoensure that the United States doesnt bear the brunto costs associated with a ully equipped station.

Trough the development o bases like those createdin Bulgaria, the US could nd a middle ground thatensures readiness as well as economic and political sta-bility.

Te strong presence o United States armed orcesthroughout the rest o the world is a poor reectiono our 21st century capabilities. More oten than not,the ull stafng o these establishments does not serveas a direct and signicant interest to our deense ororeign relations. By converting many o these bases

to a joint or bare base structure, we could ensure thatour budget is utilized to its ullest potential, all the

while improving the diplomatic relations and oreignreadiness o our allies.

Corporate ax Reorm: Ierritorial the Solution?

Justin Winiko

Flashpoint BlogJune 11, 2013

Our nations tax policy poses a serious threat to Ameican competitiveness. According to business leadesurveyed by the World Economic Forum, a nationcorporate tax policy is among the most problematactors or doing business. An additional OECstudyrevealed that corporate taxes are ound to the most harmul or growth.

With its global position in mind, it is imperative th

the United States takes quick action to reorm its tcode.

A recent study by the World Bank revealed just hohigh American business taxes are. Te 35% statutorate has long been among the highest in the worlEven including deductions, however, the eective trate on American companies is 27.6%, twelve pecentage points above the average o all other OECcountries.

Te tax code presents a complex problem or policmakers: myriad loopholes prevent the U.S. goverment rom maximizing revenues and dampen dometic growth. Te current worldwide approach taxboth income earned domestically and abroad (athough it allows oreign tax credits to avoid doubltaxation). However, corporations (not only Applare allowed to deer the tax on international earninuntil the money is repatriated. Tereore companie

with shareholders in mind, keep their money abroa

preventing tax revenue and investment rom returing to the United States. One studyestimates, th

American multinationals are holding more than $1trillion in earnings abroad.

Other tax loopholes allow companies to transer moey and excess tax credits rom high-tax countries
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afliate branches in low tax countries through strate-gies regulations and cross-crediting.

Such reorm must begin, a move with bipartisan sup-port.. Te rate is substantially higher than in mostother advanced countries, and puts American compa-nies at a competitive disadvantage. Other sensible re-orm includes eliminating deerral, which would leadto increased repatriation and tax revenue.

But where do we go rom there?

Some have called or a switching rom a worldwideto a territorial tax system. A territorial approachonly taxes domestic income, and is used in virtuallyall advanced economies other than the United States.By exempting oreign-earned income rom taxation,

this approach hopes to motivate rms to re-investtheir earnings domestically. Tis could consequentlylead to economic expansion and more job creationback in the United States.

Another advantage o the territorial approach is thatit enables American rms to be more competitive inthe global economy. Multinationals would no longerhave to pay taxes on repatriated income. Teir onlytax burden, like companies rom other territorialnations, would be in the countries in which they are

operating. Tis would substantially level the playingeld by allowing American companies to compete

with a similar eective tax rate.

Senators John McCain (R-Arizona) and Carl Levin(D-Michigan) are hopingto crat a bill that may in-corporate elements o a territorial tax system. WithLevin set to retire in 2014, Congress hopes to achievecomprehensive corporate tax reorm beore then.

Despite its nearly universal use, however, uncertainty

surrounding the territorial system may prevent itspassage. Many economists eel the revenues abroad

would not be reinvested in the United States. A 2005tax repatriation holiday did not lead to urther invest-ment. Instead, unds returning home went to divi-dends and share repurchases. Such an approach could

lead to urther investment in tax havens. Moreover,a territorial tax system may have other adverse e-ects on the American economy such as lower realized

wages.

Regardless, the discussion concerning the territorialtax system must continue. Mr. Cooks appearance atthe Senate made it clear that there is political advan-tage to making this a highly visible issue. I Americancompetitiveness is to improve, then Congress must

work together to construct a loophole-ree, eectivecorporate tax code.

Inrastructure Investment GreatlyNeeded or Competitiveness and

SecurityWes Reichart

Flashpoint Blog

June 27, 2013

Americas critical inrastructure is very importantto ensuring both competitiveness and security. Temovement o goods, people, energy, and inormationis vital to a strong economy and deense. In order or

such transit to take place efciently, eectively, andsaely strong inrastructure systems and networksmust be in place and maintained. Unortunately,crumbling inrastructure throughout the UnitedStates has not only reduced American productivitybut let the nation vulnerable to being overwhelmedvia homeland disasters. Well-planned and efcient in-vestment in updating and maintaining critical inra-structure is desperately needed to enhance Americancompetitiveness and national security.

An American Society o Civil Engineers (ASCE) re-port claims that businesses could ace up to $1.2 ril-lion in extra costs due to deteriorating inrastructuresystems. Furthermore, the report card issued by the

ASCE assigned Americas inrastructure a D+ grade,
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citing major deciencies in the ollowing areas: ener-gy, transit, roads, and levees. Even in the ace o rapidonline commercialism, traditional structures includ-ing roads, bridges, harbors, and railways still remainessential to the transport o raw materials, nishedproducts, and services. Crumbling and inefcient in-

rastructure will cause higher transport costs or busi-nesses as travel contains more congestion, is not assae, and does not work smoothly. Such circumstances

will act as signicant drags on the U.S. economy andthus greatly hamper American competitiveness.

In addition to competitiveness concerns, the deterio-ration o American inrastructure also presents ahosto national security challenges. In a broad, simpleview, the quality and efciency o inrastructure is cru-cial or the transport o troops, supplies, and equip-

ment or deployment and transit between homelandbases. Response to threats, attacks, and natural disas-ters require the ability to quickly mobilize and ma-neuver orces throughout the nation. Poorly designedand inadequate inrastructure will hinder the abilityor the United States to respond quickly. Also in theevent o a natural disaster, it may urther exacerbatethe damage ensued as weak levees may break. Te na-tions worst ears in this regard were witnessed beyondmagnitude during Hurricane Katrina, and yet not

much progress has been made.

Major investment in inrastructure repairs and up-grades are desperately necessary or both economicrelated competitiveness concerns and national secu-rity challenges. Te aorementioned ASCE report es-timates that the United States would need to investapproximately $3.6 rillion to raise the nations in-rastructure to an acceptable B level by 2020. Tesecosts will continue to rise exponentially should theU.S. choose to sit idly by as more critical inrastruc-ture crumbles and alls by the wayside.

Admittedly, achieving multi-trillion dollars o invest-ment within the next seven years is highly unlikely inthe current era o scal austerity. However, increasedinvestment in inrastructure must be made througha series o reorms and well-designed programs. Ul-

timately should the public and private leaders o onation ail to act, there will be extreme long run ecnomic, competitiveness, and security consequences

A strong starting point in this process involves reoro government spending with regards to inrastru

ture programs such as the Highway rust Fund. Nlonger can the ederal government allow pork-barrspending and short-term stimulus objectives to eaway at appropriated budgets. Federally unded inrstructure projects must be careully evaluated to esure the most needed and efcient projects are undrather than those that are used to appease constitents or special-interests. Along with these judgmena projects expected economic returns should also bincluded in the respective cost-benet calculus.

In order to overcome the rational (we need to avounsustainable decits or other competitiveness cocerns) lack o available government unding, publiprivate partnerships must be orged. Congress shou

work to create a National Inrastructure Bank. Tlong-term, undamental mechanism will help to raithe rate o investment or inrastructure projects private institutions will see viable returns to their ecess, mostly exible capital. Businesses should also bcome more aware o the economic benets such pro

ects will provide their transportation mechanisms.Similar to American Competitiveness writ largthe United States inrastructure is crumblingancrumbling ast. Long-term solutions are desperatenecessary to save the nation rom a large magnitude economic and security problems. Disciplined spening and greater investment ueled by a public-privapartnership are requisite to turn things around. Ugency is paramount as the greatest consequenccould be just around the corner.
http://www.securitymanagement.com/news/crumbling-infrastructure-a-national-security-concern-experts-say-006649http://www.securitymanagement.com/news/crumbling-infrastructure-a-national-security-concern-experts-say-006649http://rt.com/usa/america-infrastructure-us-billion-459/http://rt.com/usa/america-infrastructure-us-billion-459/http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2013/06/24/2200961/americans-jobs-infrastructure/?mobile=nchttp://thinkprogress.org/economy/2013/06/24/2200961/americans-jobs-infrastructure/?mobile=nchttp://www.fhwa.dot.gov/highwaytrustfund/http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/highwaytrustfund/http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2013/06/24/2200961/americans-jobs-infrastructure/?mobile=nchttp://thinkprogress.org/economy/2013/06/24/2200961/americans-jobs-infrastructure/?mobile=nchttp://rt.com/usa/america-infrastructure-us-billion-459/http://rt.com/usa/america-infrastructure-us-billion-459/http://www.securitymanagement.com/news/crumbling-infrastructure-a-national-security-concern-experts-say-006649http://www.securitymanagement.com/news/crumbling-infrastructure-a-national-security-concern-experts-say-006649


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Te SEM Jobs Shortall Is aNational Security Shortcoming

We Can Fix

Justin Yarros

Flashpoint BlogApril 3, 2013

At the top o the list o challenges to Americancompetitiveness and national security is the lack oSEM (science, technology, engineering, and math)graduates in our schools and universities. Te U.S.is acinga shortall o 230,000 SEM jobs because

Americans are not earning enough o the requisitedegrees to ll those positions. American competi-

tiveness suers as a result. Te U.S. strategy shouldthereore include hiring more oreign-born workersand nding ways to improve science and math out-comes or U.S. students.

Te SEM jobs shortall problem starts with theeducation system. Te National Science Foundation(NSF) showed that ew American 4th graders areprocient at math and none o their average scoresreach the procient level. By 12th grade most

American students are not at the procient level in

math and science.

Tese graduates are unt to ll engineering, science,and technician jobs that the aerospace and deenseindustry needs to remain on the cutting edge o re-search, development, and production. Partly due tothe education gap, the SEM activities o the De-partment o Deense are a small and diminishingpart o the nations overall science and engineeringenterprise. Tis is a crisis but the United States has

the resources to make its research and developmentstronger and the jobs are already there! eachersshould be empowered to oer solutions instead obeing blamed or systemic ailures, while studentsshould be encouraged to see SEM studies as anexciting potential career path.

ASP has also looked at the link between immigra-

tion, American competitiveness, and national se-curity, and identied the H-1B visa program as ameans to boost American competitiveness. Tis visaallows oreign workers with special skills to live and

work in the United States.

Hiring oreign workers or oreign students who aregraduating with U.S. degrees is good or Americanworkers. Tere is a multiplier eect one studyconcludes that every oreign worker with an ad-vanced U.S. degree adds 2.62 jobs to the Americaneconomy.

Te U.S. Congress and President Obama are alreadyworking out the details o immigration reorm. Oneproposal eliminates the cap o20,000 visas per yearor oreigners who earn U.S. degrees. An alterna-

tive proposal would increase the cap on H-1B visas.Policymakers should also take a serious look at howto improve scores in math, science, and engineeringamong K-12 students. Te policy choices we maketoday will have a direct causal eect on the ability othe United States to maintain its competitive edgein the years to come.

Cyber Legislation Neededto Protect AmericanCompetitiveness

Ben Secrist


National security and American competitiveness are

deeply intertwined; hacking and thet o data romthe Deense and private industry is a constant con-cern. While the United States will certainly remainthe target o cyber attacks rom a range o perpetra-tors, there are actions that can be taken to limit thedamage.

Te Cyber Intelligence Sharing and Protection
http://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/the-stem-jobs-shortfall-is-a-national-security-issue-we-can-fix/http://www.renewoureconomy.org/sites/all/themes/pnae/not-coming-to-america-pr.pdfhttp://www.nsf.gov/nsb/sei/edTool/07X.xmlhttp://www.nsf.gov/nsb/sei/edTool/19X.xmlhttp://defense.aol.com/2012/12/27/saving-the-defense-industrial-base/http://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/immigration-american-competitiveness-and-national-security/http://bostonglobe.com/opinion/2013/04/02/the-benefits-visa/WPOr4ET4gZnTKGDhopQ0AL/story.htmlhttp://bostonglobe.com/opinion/2013/04/02/the-benefits-visa/WPOr4ET4gZnTKGDhopQ0AL/story.htmlhttp://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/cyber-legislation-needed-to-protect-american-competitiveness/http://intelligence.house.gov/sites/intelligence.house.gov/files/documents/CISPAPassedApril2013.pdfhttp://intelligence.house.gov/sites/intelligence.house.gov/files/documents/CISPAPassedApril2013.pdfhttp://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/cyber-legislation-needed-to-protect-american-competitiveness/http://bostonglobe.com/opinion/2013/04/02/the-benefits-visa/WPOr4ET4gZnTKGDhopQ0AL/story.htmlhttp://bostonglobe.com/opinion/2013/04/02/the-benefits-visa/WPOr4ET4gZnTKGDhopQ0AL/story.htmlhttp://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/immigration-american-competitiveness-and-national-security/http://defense.aol.com/2012/12/27/saving-the-defense-industrial-base/http://www.nsf.gov/nsb/sei/edTool/19X.xmlhttp://www.nsf.gov/nsb/sei/edTool/07X.xmlhttp://www.renewoureconomy.org/sites/all/themes/pnae/not-coming-to-america-pr.pdfhttp://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/the-stem-jobs-shortfall-is-a-national-security-issue-we-can-fix/


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Act (CISPA) was a bill proposed both in the 112thand 113th congress and passed by the House onApril26, 2012 and again on April 18, 2013 however itailed to pass in the Senate both times. Te legislationattempted to allow or greater inormation sharingbetween private businesses who were victims o so-

phisticated cyber attacks and the ederal government.Much o the bill was ocused on protecting energycompanies and rms in the deense industrial base,both o which are included in the Department oHomeland Securitys list o 18 critical inrastructuresectors.

Te thet o intellectual property poses both a na-tional security risk and an American competitive-ness issue because it closes the gap between Americasmilitary and economic advantage over the rest o the

world. For countries like China and Russia, it is muchcheaper and aster to set up a hacking cell then undresearch that could take years to see results.

Since much o the intellectual property belong to pri-vate companies, what responsibility should the gov-ernment have in protecting it?

On March 17, 2011 the computer security rm RSAannounced that it had been hacked by a highlyskilled, well-unded group with a specic agenda.RSA makes encrypted keys used by the U.S. govern-ment, the intelligence community, many rms in thedeense industrial base, and ortune 500 companies.In January o this year Apple admitted they had beenhacked along with witter and Facebook. Bloombergreported the attack originated in Eastern Europe roma cyber-gang intent on selling the inormation theycollected.

Large companies may be better prepared to protect

their property rom thet but medium or small rmsdo not necessarily have the resources to end o sus-tained cyber attacks. Coordination between the pri-vate and public sectors is necessary so these smallerrms can also be protected. Sharing best practices andinormation on common threats is where the govern-ment could step in and help.

Even without concrete legislation being passed, stehave been taken to increase inormation sharing, epecially in the deense industrial base. In 2011 thPentagon launched their Deense Industrial BaEnhanced Cybersecurity Services program in whideense companies would send reports on attempt

and successul hacking into their networks. Ater bing scrubbed o private data and ensuring the victicompany would remain anonymous, the inormatio

would be shared with other participating companion the signatures o the attackers. Unortunately ona handul o companies participated in the prograout o the thousands o rms in the deense industrbase.

While CISPA ailed to become law due to argumenthat it violated the privacy o citizens, it still pass

the House with overwhelming support rom bosides o the aisle. Te issue o maintaining Americacyber security is too important or Congress and th

White House to simply allow potential protectioto ounder and die within governmental bureacracy. Te government has a responsibility to protethe countrys security, and the thet omajor weaposystems datacertainly justies at least a political rsponse.

Both Congress and President Obama know how important passing legislation is to protect our countryintellectual property and the competitive advanta

we hold over the rest o the world, but strikingproper balance o security, privacy, and the role government has been tricky. A proactive and well-dliberated approach to cyber legislation is much modesirable than a reactive and hasty response ollowina major cyber attack. As Senator Jay Rockeeller

W.Va. said, Tere is too much at stake or Congreto ail to act.
http://intelligence.house.gov/sites/intelligence.house.gov/files/documents/CISPAPassedApril2013.pdfhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-17864539http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-17864539http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/18/cispa-vote-house-approves_n_3109504.htmlhttp://www.dhs.gov/critical-infrastructure-sectorshttp://www.dhs.gov/critical-infrastructure-sectorshttp://www.dhs.gov/critical-infrastructure-sectorshttp://www.businessinsider.com/imf-cyber-attacked-hackers-sony-rsa-lockheed-martin-epsilon-michaels-2011-6?op=1http://www.businessinsider.com/imf-cyber-attacked-hackers-sony-rsa-lockheed-martin-epsilon-michaels-2011-6?op=1http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-19/apple-says-a-small-number-of-mac-computers-infected-by-malware.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-19/apple-says-a-small-number-of-mac-computers-infected-by-malware.htmlhttp://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/archive/2013/June/Pages/DefenseIndustrialBaseWaryofCybersecurityLaws.aspxhttp://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/04/despite_concerns_about_jeopard.htmlhttp://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/04/despite_concerns_about_jeopard.htmlhttp://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/05/28/18556787-chinese-hackers-steal-us-weapons-systems-designs-report-says?litehttp://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/05/28/18556787-chinese-hackers-steal-us-weapons-systems-designs-report-says?litehttp://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/04/despite_concerns_about_jeopard.htmlhttp://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/04/despite_concerns_about_jeopard.htmlhttp://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/05/28/18556787-chinese-hackers-steal-us-weapons-systems-designs-report-says?litehttp://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/05/28/18556787-chinese-hackers-steal-us-weapons-systems-designs-report-says?litehttp://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/04/despite_concerns_about_jeopard.htmlhttp://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/04/despite_concerns_about_jeopard.htmlhttp://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/archive/2013/June/Pages/DefenseIndustrialBaseWaryofCybersecurityLaws.aspxhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-19/apple-says-a-small-number-of-mac-computers-infected-by-malware.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-19/apple-says-a-small-number-of-mac-computers-infected-by-malware.htmlhttp://www.businessinsider.com/imf-cyber-attacked-hackers-sony-rsa-lockheed-martin-epsilon-michaels-2011-6?op=1http://www.businessinsider.com/imf-cyber-attacked-hackers-sony-rsa-lockheed-martin-epsilon-michaels-2011-6?op=1http://www.dhs.gov/critical-infrastructure-sectorshttp://www.dhs.gov/critical-infrastructure-sectorshttp://www.dhs.gov/critical-infrastructure-sectorshttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/18/cispa-vote-house-approves_n_3109504.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-17864539http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-17864539http://intelligence.house.gov/sites/intelligence.house.gov/files/documents/CISPAPassedApril2013.pdf


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High-Skilled ImmigrationReorm Needed to EnhanceCompetitiveness

Wes Reichart


Te political capital and motivation pushing im-migration reorm should not reside solely with thedemand or stricter border security and the preven-tion o a mass inux o illegal aliens. While nationalsecurity and illegal immigration concerns are clearlylinked, they are also related to the lack o high skilledimmigration as viewed rom the lens oAmerican

Competitiveness. Te United States must aim toattract and retain the best and brightest in orderto ensure greater security through economic and re-search and development advancements. Te currentsystem or immigration greatly hinders the statesability to keep high skilled oreigners in the UnitedStates upon graduation as well as attract the best.

Unortunately, over the past decade, the United Stateshas seen a pattern o human capital ight with regardsto highly educated oreigners. Due to a awed im-

migration system in which only85,000 H-1B high-skilled and 140,000 work visas (o which one countrycannot make up more than 7%) are issued, the U.S. islosing many o the top oreign-born students to othernations such as Russia and China. Such ramicationsare especially true in the most critical programs oradvancement, especially those with degrees in Sci-ence, echnology, Engineering, and Mathematics(SEM).

In 2011, an estimated 40% o the approximately25,000 students in the United States receiving Ph.Dsin SEM programs were oreign born. However,as a result o the extreme lack o appropriate visas,only 30% o these graduates were able to stay in theU.S. and work in public or private enterprise. Tiscomplete disconnect between a vast need or highly-

skilled SEM graduates to complete vital researchand development and being able to capitalize on anabundance o U.S. educated oreign-born students isquite alarming.

Te United States and American taxpayers are ailing

to achieve a much needed return on their investmentas many o the oreign-born students attending majorresearch universities receive U.S. government grantsand/or state education system scholarships. On the

whole, American institutions o higher learning havemade considerable advancements in their ability toattract the best and brightest scholars across theglobe. As the business community and governmentagencies yearn or such talent, the powers that governthe U.S. should take a lesson in this approach andimplement high-skilled immigration reorm.

Te current dearth o oreign-born SEM graduatesworking in the U.S. presents great challenges to manynational security imperatives. Without very skilledand intelligent students entering both the public andprivate sectors o the deense industrial base the U.S.

will suer rom a lack o superior research and devel-opment. A wide array o emerging asymmetric andhybrid threats such as biological and cyber wararerequire highly complex scientic and technical re-

sponses. Should U.S. educated, oreign-born gradu-ates return home or land in another nation, they mayprovide other states will the skills and knowledge nec-essary to threaten U.S. primacy in certain areas. Fur-thermore, the Department o Deense may be miss-ing out on the ability to utilize highly educated andskilled oreigners to develop new weapons systemsand military technology.

As immigration reorm reaches the oor o bothhouses o legislature, Congress should be sure to

overhaul the system to include a greater availability olong-term visas and citizenship or highly skilled or-eign-born students whom were educated in the Unit-ed States. Greater coordination between public andprivate immigration needs is a necessity. Leaders may

wish to consider a provision in which students whopossess the most-needed degrees, SEM graduates,
http://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/high-skilled-immigration-reform-needed-to-enhance-competitiveness/http://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/issues/american-competitiveness/http://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/issues/american-competitiveness/http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/01/09/immigration-science-technology-engineering-math-jobs/1566164/http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/01/09/immigration-science-technology-engineering-math-jobs/1566164/http://www.stemedcoalition.org/http://www.forbes.com/sites/emsi/2013/05/28/how-foreign-born-graduates-impact-the-stem-worker-shortage-debate/http://www.forbes.com/sites/emsi/2013/05/28/how-foreign-born-graduates-impact-the-stem-worker-shortage-debate/http://www.forbes.com/sites/emsi/2013/05/28/how-foreign-born-graduates-impact-the-stem-worker-shortage-debate/http://www.usnews.com/education/blogs/the-scholarship-coach/2011/03/24/scholarship-sources-for-international-studentshttp://www.usnews.com/education/blogs/the-scholarship-coach/2011/03/24/scholarship-sources-for-international-studentshttp://www.synesisjournal.com/vol3_t/Hummel_2012_T25-36.pdfhttp://www.synesisjournal.com/vol3_t/Hummel_2012_T25-36.pdfhttp://www.synesisjournal.com/vol3_t/Hummel_2012_T25-36.pdfhttp://www.synesisjournal.com/vol3_t/Hummel_2012_T25-36.pdfhttp://www.synesisjournal.com/vol3_t/Hummel_2012_T25-36.pdfhttp://www.synesisjournal.com/vol3_t/Hummel_2012_T25-36.pdfhttp://www.usnews.com/education/blogs/the-scholarship-coach/2011/03/24/scholarship-sources-for-international-studentshttp://www.usnews.com/education/blogs/the-scholarship-coach/2011/03/24/scholarship-sources-for-international-studentshttp://www.forbes.com/sites/emsi/2013/05/28/how-foreign-born-graduates-impact-the-stem-worker-shortage-debate/http://www.forbes.com/sites/emsi/2013/05/28/how-foreign-born-graduates-impact-the-stem-worker-shortage-debate/http://www.forbes.com/sites/emsi/2013/05/28/how-foreign-born-graduates-impact-the-stem-worker-shortage-debate/http://www.stemedcoalition.org/http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/01/09/immigration-science-technology-engineering-math-jobs/1566164/http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/01/09/immigration-science-technology-engineering-math-jobs/1566164/http://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/issues/american-competitiveness/http://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/issues/american-competitiveness/http://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/high-skilled-immigration-reform-needed-to-enhance-competitiveness/


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will receive automatic long-term work visas shouldthe gain employment within six months o gradua-tion. Such reorms will undoubtedly assist AmericanCompetitiveness and national security concerns as theU.S. will remain technologically superior via the abil-ity to attract the most highly skilled students rom

around the world.

Bigger political threat lurks be-hind sequester impact debate

August Cole

Flashpoint Blog

May 8, 2013Anyone living in and around the Beltway can tell youthat the post-2001 rise in deense spending has giv-en the Washington area an historic economic boost.It elt, at times, like the dot-com boom during the1990s Bay Area and it was visible everywhere romrestaurants to car dealerships to real estate propertyshowings.

More broadly, how the national economy ecosystem

will change now that ederal spending, particularlydeense, is being pared back is still playing out. Re-duced government spending is indeed taking a biteout o GDP.

For economists, politicians and industry, its an essen-tial question. In particular, companies and lawmakers

who want to preserve their avored deense programs,the threat o deense-cut driven economic devastationhas become a handy political cudgel.

Yet, according to a report rom George Mason Uni-versitys Mercatus Center, deense cuts in particularmay not hurt the U.S. economy as badly as has beenportrayed.

Predictions that the sequesters deense-spendingcuts will have a dire economic impact should be

viewed skeptically in light o the nations experienwith much larger deense-spending drawdowns icluding ollowing World War II and the end o thCold Warneither o which resulted in predicteconomic declines, wrote Robert Barro, a Harvaproessor, and Veronique de Rugy, senior research e

low at the Mercatus Center.

Teir research ound that over ve years each $1 ederal deense-spending cuts will increase privaspending by roughly $1.30.

Te ocus on sequesters economic impact is impotant or many reasons.

Lawmakers need to take a sounding to see how prcarious their course might be ater cutting eder

spending without little discretion. More data, anreports like the Mercatus Center paper, are needed.

Yet the act that sequester took eect at all is the biger, and strategic, issue.

A steep price has already been paid.

Americas competitive position in the world is tied a unctional, and somewhat predictable, political sytem. Business counts on it, both at home and abroaOur allies also need to believe we are capable o maing decisions as a country that are strategic in theaims and rooted in compromise. Te twitchy politicing o the past year is even more rustrating becaumany o the policy measures taken have been done the spirit o long-term benets to the country yet thare carried out in a way that erodes condence anencourages partisanship.

As lawmakers consider their agenda or the summetackling Americas big structural issues post-sequest

should not all by the wayside. Tis is the time to improve Americas competitive standing.

Te economic benet o a unctional political systeshould be something that no politician needs to haexplained to them.
http://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/bigger-political-threat-lurks-behind-sequester-impact-debate/http://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/sequestrations-shadow-looms-large-over-latest-economic-data/http://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/sequestrations-shadow-looms-large-over-latest-economic-data/http://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/sequestrations-shadow-looms-large-over-latest-economic-data/http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/deRugy-Barro-Defense-Multiplier.pdfhttp://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/deRugy-Barro-Defense-Multiplier.pdfhttp://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/deRugy-Barro-Defense-Multiplier.pdfhttp://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/deRugy-Barro-Defense-Multiplier.pdfhttp://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/sequestrations-shadow-looms-large-over-latest-economic-data/http://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/sequestrations-shadow-looms-large-over-latest-economic-data/http://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/sequestrations-shadow-looms-large-over-latest-economic-data/http://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/bigger-political-threat-lurks-behind-sequester-impact-debate/


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Will the R&D ax Credit SpurInnovation?

Justin Winiko

Flashpoint Blog

June 27, 2013

echnological innovation is essential to a nationscompetitiveness in the global economy. Research anddevelopment (R&D) projects led by private compa-nies oten trigger this innovation. R&D has inspiredprivate sector breakthroughs that have revolutionizedthe American economy in industries such as comput-ers, medicine, and energy.

o be among the most competitive nations in the 21st

century, the United States must encourage researchand development projects through changes in taxpolicy and eective regulations.

A recent report by the American Energy InnovationCouncil (AEIC), leaders o research programs at U.S.energy companies listed our nations tax credit policyamong the greatest hindrances to greater R&D suc-cess. Tey additionally cited support rom oreigngovernments as a major motivation to perorm re-

search abroad rather than in the United States.

Te two most requent complaints about the R&Dtax credit are its inconsistency and its low value. J.Michael McQuade o UC told the AEIC that weneed a predictable tax credit. Since its enactment in1981, the R&D tax credit has expired eight times andhas been renewed ourteen times. It was recently ex-tended again (and retroactively applied to 2012), butis set to expire at the end o the year. Te uncertaintysurrounding the tax credit makes it incredibly dif-cult or private companies to set budgets, engage innew projects, and plan or uture R&D. A permanentextension o the tax credit, proponents argue, maysignicantly increase its eectiveness and encourageurther private sector research.

Researchers also argue that the R&D tax credit is val-ued too low to compete with similar policies abroad.In 2012, astudyby the Inormation echnology &Innovation Foundation (IIF) ranked the UnitedStates 27th globally in R&D tax incentive generosity.Developing nations such as India (ranked rst), Chi-

na, and Brazil are all ranked higher than the UnitedStates. Additionally, OECD nations such as Spain,Portugal, and France have more generous R&D taxincentives. IIF notes that American tax credits coverrom 14% to 20% o research expenditures, compared

with a 200% super deduction or R&D in India.

Yet not everyone believes that more eective tax cred-it is the key to R&D success. One analyst, MichaelRashkin, argues that private companies must engagein R&D to remain globally competitive, and will do

so regardless o whether or not they are provided atax credit. Additionally he notes that over 80% o thecredits are earned by large companies such as Apple,Google, and Microsot who probably do not need thecredit to perorm research.

om Kavassalis o Xerox also argued against a moreconsistent tax credit. He told the AEIC that the taxcredits quickly become part o the baseline, and donot promote urther investment in research and de-

velopment.Te claims made by Rashkin and Kavassalis may havesome validity.A 2012 report by the National ScienceFoundation revealed the United States ranks ninth in2009 R&D intensity, the R&D/GDP ratio, with anintensity o 2.88%. Hal o the countries ranked aheado the United States (including the top three- Israel,Finland and Sweden) all have less generous tax incen-tives according to the IIF. Additionally, nations withthe most generous tax credits (India, Portugal, Spain,

and France) all have less R&D intensive economies.Tere is clearly not an obvious correlation betweentax incentives and R&D intensity.

ax incentives may encourage R&D and innovation,but it is not the only method or doing so. More-over, it must not be our only tool or promoting re-
http://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/the-rd-tax-credit-will-it-help-spur-innovation/http://slingshotpdg.com/2013/03/research-development-tax-credit-saved-again/http://www.ipc.org/ContentPage.aspx?pageid=What-is-the-Research-and-Development-Tax-Credithttp://www.politico.com/morningtech/0113/morningtech9739.htmlhttp://www.politico.com/morningtech/0113/morningtech9739.htmlhttp://www2.itif.org/2012-were-27-b-index-tax.pdfhttp://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4235663/The-R-D-credit-doesn-t-workhttp://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind12/pdf/seind12.pdfhttp://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind12/pdf/seind12.pdfhttp://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4235663/The-R-D-credit-doesn-t-workhttp://www2.itif.org/2012-were-27-b-index-tax.pdfhttp://www.politico.com/morningtech/0113/morningtech9739.htmlhttp://www.politico.com/morningtech/0113/morningtech9739.htmlhttp://www.ipc.org/ContentPage.aspx?pageid=What-is-the-Research-and-Development-Tax-Credithttp://slingshotpdg.com/2013/03/research-development-tax-credit-saved-again/http://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/the-rd-tax-credit-will-it-help-spur-innovation/


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search. An eective policy will address R&D througha variety o strategic measures. Such a policy wouldinclude not only incentives, but also research grantsand proper regulations. Te R&D tax incentive maybe part o the answer to spurring innovation, but it iscertainly not the whole solution.

CLIMAE &ENERGY SECURIY

Oil Dependency: a Subtle bu

Serious TreatWilliam Joyce


Weapons o mass destruction, terrorism, and cybcrime are in the headlines as signicant threats to onational security. However, over the next twenty thirty years, Americas overwhelming dependence ooil presents subtler, although no less serious, threats national security.

Te U.S. is the largest consumer o oil in the worlburning through 18.83 million barrels per daEven i the U.S. produced all petroleum producdomestically, Americans would still eel the shocrom market volatility. Oil is a global market, anmarket prices prevail regardless o origin. Despipolicies to improve vehicle efciency, America remai

dependent on oil. Tis dependency presents severthreats to U.S. national security.

First, oil price volatility hampers Americproductivity and consumers. Economic vitalirequires stable prices, as spikes in oil prices m
http://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/oil-dependency-a-subtle-but-serious-threat/http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=33&t=6http://www.ensec.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=183:energy-security-as-national-security-defining-problems-ahead-of-solutions1&catid=92:issuecontent&Itemid=341http://www.ensec.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=183:energy-security-as-national-security-defining-problems-ahead-of-solutions1&catid=92:issuecontent&Itemid=341http://www.ensec.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=183:energy-security-as-national-security-defining-problems-ahead-of-solutions1&catid=92:issuecontent&Itemid=341http://www.ensec.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=183:energy-security-as-national-security-defining-problems-ahead-of-solutions1&catid=92:issuecontent&Itemid=341http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=33&t=6http://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/oil-dependency-a-subtle-but-serious-threat/


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reduce output and wages while increasing inationand interest rates. Most commonly, consumers eelthese disruptions at the gas pump. Te transportationsector alone consumes 13.223 million barrelso petroleum per day. Petroleum acilitates theunctioning o these critical transportation networks,

and small disruptions may lead to cascading pricedumps. As volatile oil prices destabilize the economy,they jeopardize U.S. interests and national security.

Secondly, U.S. oil dependency distorts oreign policy.Te U.S. imported 40% o its petroleum productsin 2012. In order to ensure oreign oil security, theU.S. supports regimes it might not otherwise. Manyoil-rich Islamist regimes in the Middle East receive deacto support rom America in return or producing

stable oil, despite conicting ideologies and interests.Similarly, estimates show that extended militaryoperations to guard oil supply lines cost the U.S.military$67.5-$83 billion per year. Tis dependencyis costly and conicts with the national securityagenda.

Lastly, oil dependency undermines militarypreparedness and eectiveness. Te Departmento Deense consumed 117 million barrels o oil in2011 in order to uel the militarys vehicles, ships,

and planes. Te military must complete its missions,and without uel options, it must endure oil priceuctuations. For every25-cent increase per barrel ooil, the Department o Deense pays an additional$1 billion in uel costs per year. Additional uelcosts means the military has to cut costs elsewhere,

which have negative impacts on security and militarypreparedness.

Military energy security requires reduced consumption

o petroleum products, yet the Department oDeense depends on oil or 80% o its energy needs.Te military may reduce consumption by reormingenergy-intensive activities, optimizing energy usage,and developing innovative technologies to reduceenergy waste, but sequestration budget cuts will slashuture investment.

Instead o ocusing solely on drilling or more oil,the U.S. must pursue a two-pronged approach thatocuses on reducing oil demand while at the sametime makes investments in developing alternativeuels. Clean energy technologies could cut imports by

44% which is nearlyeight times more than potentialdomestic drilling production. Greater eorts toimprove vehicle efciency through corporateaverage uel economy standards (CAFE), congestioncharges, or uel taxes can contribute to reducing oilconsumption.

Moreover, Americas oil dependence saps the U.S.economy because consumers lack uel options. othat end, investments in alternative sources o uel

biouels, natural gas, electric vehicles can act as ahedge against oil price volatility. Troughout 2012,the U.S. spent $4.36 billion on energy research, whichell well below IEA recommendations. Due to budgetcaps and sequestration, energy research unding willdrop substantially over the next ew years.

Oil dependency is a long-term threat. Te risingcost o oil dependence aects all aspects o Americansociety and threatens national security. I the U.S.

wishes to reduce these threats in the uture, the U.S.

must properly und energy research and developmentto commercialize technologies that will break

Americas oil dependency. Only then can we say wehave actually achieved energy security.

Climate Change and Instabilityin the Sahel

Evan Meltzer


Climate change is a real and pressing issue aectingthe Sahel and Maghreb regions o North and West
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Arica today. Weather pattern changes are causingdesertication and prolonged drought in theseregions. Te Gul o Guinea experienced an increasein water temperatures over recent decades, shitingrainclouds in the Sahel arther south. Consequently,between 1996 and 2006,Algeria lost 13,000 km2 o

its land to desertication, while Nigeria lost 3,500km2.

While a characteristic o the Sahel region is variableprecipitation, in the second hal o the 20th century,the region has experienced a dramatic decrease inaverage rainall, as much as a 50% reduction. Inaddition, droughts occur now in two out o ve years,

which causes harvests to be highly uncertain.Detrimental eects rom climate change urther

exacerbate the growing strie and instability o theregion, acting as a threat multiplier. Tese eectsinclude increasedwater scarcity, lack oood security,and increased desertication. Tese maysignicantlyincrease instability in weak or ailing states byoverstretching governments capacities.

Over the next twenty to thirty years, these conditionswill uel the growing threat o Islamic radicalizationin the Sahel and Maghreb areas o Arica. Tis will

constitute one o the most important dangers posedto both American and global security.

For example, sectarian violence today ravagesNigeria as Boko Haram a localized jihadist group threatens the country byseeking to overthrowtheelected government and implementing Sharia lawnationwide. Colonel Sambo Dasuki, an advisor toNigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, blames BokoHarams activities on climate change because o lacko employment opportunities.

Dr. Soji Adelaja o Michigan State University echoesDasukis point, commentingthat rising sea levels in theNiger Delta and desert expansion in northern Nigeriaorced young workers out o traditional occupations.Te disruption to individuals livelihoods because o

drought and amine leads some to join terrorist groupto alleviate the hardships aced rom unemployment

Following recent regional unrest, this area nowpresents a unique opportunity to address these securitthreats. From the overthrow o Malian Presiden

Amadou oumani in March 2012 to the capture ooreign workers in Algeria in early 2013, the region ia powder keg with a volatile mix o Islamic extremistand worsening environmental conditions.

Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) operatedeep within the Sahara Desert and has ourishedamidst the growing political and economic instabilito the region. Intelligence ofcials estimate tha

AQIM raised upwards o $100 million in recen

years rom drug trafcking and kidnappings. Usinthis unding, AQIM conducted over 900 bombingthat caused over 7,500 casualties throughout thMaghreb since September 11, 2001.

Inaction rom the United States directly threatenAmerican security as likelihood or both terrorisattacks and possible American intervention increasesIn order to combat this growing threat rom Nortand West Arica, the United States should implemen

a multiaceted approach to address both the terrorisand climate aspects o the region.

First, the United States should encourage countriein the discussed region to include climate change intheir respective national security strategies. Accordinto Te Global Security Deense Index, the majority onational security strategies o countries in the regiondo not dene climate change as a threat. By doing soit will increase regional awareness to the link betweestability and security and the risks posed by climat

change.

In addition, the United States should incorporatagencies such as NASA and the National Oceaniand Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) into thdiscussion o security strategy. Tese organization
http://www.economist.com/node/21550324http://www.economist.com/node/21550324http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2012/04/pdf/climate_migration_nwafrica.pdfhttp://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2012/04/pdf/climate_migration_nwafrica.pdfhttp://www.unep.org/Themes/Freshwater/Documents/pdf/ClimateChangeSahelCombine.pdfhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2013/02/07/mali_islamist_insurgents_could_climate_change_be_al_qaida_s_best_friend.htmlhttp://www.cna.org/sites/default/files/National%20Security%20and%20the%20Threat%20of%20Climate%20Change%20-%20Print.pdfhttp://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2013/sc10970.doc.htmhttp://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/reports/99387.pdfhttp://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/reports/99387.pdfhttp://www.nctc.gov/site/groups/boko_haram.htmlhttp://leadership.ng/news/240413/nsa-blames-boko-haram-kidnappings-climate-changehttp://leadership.ng/news/240413/nsa-blames-boko-haram-kidnappings-climate-changehttp://allafrica.com/stories/201304240167.htmlhttp://climateandsecurity.org/tag/al-qaeda-in-the-islamic-maghreb/http://climateandsecurity.org/tag/al-qaeda-in-the-islamic-maghreb/http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/17/us-sahara-crisis-idUSBRE90F1JJ20130117http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/17/us-sahara-crisis-idUSBRE90F1JJ20130117http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2012/04/pdf/climate_migration_nwafrica.pdfhttp://www.potomacinstitute.org/attachments/524_Maghreb%20Terrorism%20report.pdfhttp://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/ASP%20Reports/Ref%200121%20-%20Global%20Security%20Defense%20Index%20P-Results.pdfhttp://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/ASP%20Reports/Ref%200121%20-%20Global%20Security%20Defense%20Index%20P-Results.pdfhttp://www.potomacinstitute.org/attachments/524_Maghreb%20Terrorism%20report.pdfhttp://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2012/04/pdf/climate_migration_nwafrica.pdfhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/17/us-sahara-crisis-idUSBRE90F1JJ20130117http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/17/us-sahara-crisis-idUSBRE90F1JJ20130117http://climateandsecurity.org/tag/al-qaeda-in-the-islamic-maghreb/http://climateandsecurity.org/tag/al-qaeda-in-the-islamic-maghreb/http://allafrica.com/stories/201304240167.htmlhttp://leadership.ng/news/240413/nsa-blames-boko-haram-kidnappings-climate-changehttp://leadership.ng/news/240413/nsa-blames-boko-haram-kidnappings-climate-changehttp://www.nctc.gov/site/groups/boko_haram.htmlhttp://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/reports/99387.pdfhttp://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/reports/99387.pdfhttp://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2013/sc10970.doc.htmhttp://www.cna.org/sites/default/files/National%20Security%20and%20the%20Threat%20of%20Climate%20Change%20-%20Print.pdfhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2013/02/07/mali_islamist_insurgents_could_climate_change_be_al_qaida_s_best_friend.htmlhttp://www.unep.org/Themes/Freshwater/Documents/pdf/ClimateChangeSahelCombine.pdfhttp://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2012/04/pdf/climate_migration_nwafrica.pdfhttp://www.economist.com/node/21550324http://www.economist.com/node/21550324


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can use their resources to help address specic climate-related issues regarding the Maghreb and Sahel.

Second, the United States should invest indevelopment programs that specically target andmoderate the consequences o climate change, such

as agricultural productivity reorm. Colonel Dasukihighlighted high youth unemployment in Nigeriaas a source o increasing terrorism since otheremployment alternatives dried up.

Finally, in order to address the growing terroristpresence in the region, the American governmentshould remain engaged in the Sahel and Maghrebby promoting counterterrorism operations as well aspreventing AQIM and Boko Haram rom targetingvulnerable populations. Te United States remains inposition to provide military and logistical support toEuropean militaries actively involved, like the Frenchin Mali. Furthermore, American policies shouldencourage local community leaders to combat thepressure to join terrorist organizations.

By emphasizing the importance o climate change innational security dialogues, investing in developmentprograms, and engaging in counterterrorismoperations, the United States will be able to mitigate

the threat posed by increased terrorism in theMaghreb and Sahel.

Te Carbon Bubble: What WeKnow and Why You Should Care

Rory Johnston


Climate change is real and happening now. In order toaddress this, the international communityhas agreedto prevent average global temperatures rom risingmore than 2 C (relative to pre-industrial levels) by

2050. However, staying below this 2 C benchmarktranslates to a carbon budget, a total amount o CO

2

that can be released into the atmosphere beore thisbenchmark is reached. Tis budget has been calculatedbyclimate scientists to be approximately 886 billiontons (Gt) o CO

2or the 2000-2050 period, with an

estimated 321 GtCO2 o this budget already used inthe past decade.

Having already burned through more than a thirdo our carbon budget would be bad news i it endedthere. However, while the Earth only has 565 GtCO

2

o its budget remaining, proven ossil uel reservesrepresent a ootprint o 2795 GtCO

2, almost ve

times that amount. Tis means that only about 20%o the proven ossil uel reserves can be burned, leavingthe remaining 80% as unburnable stranded assets.Tis problem is compounded because these ossil uelreserves are entered into the market capitalizationcalculations o the ossil uel industry. Te resultis that the worlds nancial markets are carrying acarbon bubble, i world governments act to meetthis carbon budget.

An economic bubble occurs when there is a divorcebetween an assets price and its inherent value. Tis isoten due to speculation, wherebe it Dutch tulips

or American housespeople see an upward trend inprices and continue to buy said asset in the hopeso selling it or a uture prot. Tis is sel-propellingto the point where the assets value is primarilymaintained through that speculation. When thisantasy price collapses, you see the bubble pop, and,like in 2008, wide-spread market damage and humansuering occurs.

What is dierent about the carbon bubble is that it

is not a naturally occurring speculative phenomenon,but, rather, one created by the reality o a warmingclimate and the uture ineasibility o burninghydrocarbons. Hydrocarbon rms are pegging theirmarket value to the estimated uture price o thesereserves without taking into consideration that theymay, in act, be worthless.
http://www.oecd.org/swac/publications/47234320.pdfhttp://leadership.ng/news/240413/nsa-blames-boko-haram-kidnappings-climate-changehttp://www.economist.com/node/21550324http://www.potomacinstitute.org/attachments/524_Maghreb%20Terrorism%20report.pdfhttp://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/the-carbon-bubble-what-we-know-and-why-you-should-care/http://cancun.unfccc.int/cancun-agreements/significance-of-the-key-agreements-reached-at-cancun/https://www1.ethz.ch/iac/people/knuttir/papers/meinshausen09nat.pdfhttp://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n12/full/ngeo1022.htmlhttp://www.carbontracker.org/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2012/08/Unburnable-Carbon-Full1.pdfhttp://www.carbontracker.org/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2012/08/Unburnable-Carbon-Full1.pdfhttp://www.investopedia.com/features/crashes/crashes2.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/features/crashes/crashes2.asphttp://www.carbontracker.org/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2012/08/Unburnable-Carbon-Full1.pdfhttp://www.carbontracker.org/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2012/08/Unburnable-Carbon-Full1.pdfhttp://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n12/full/ngeo1022.htmlhttps://www1.ethz.ch/iac/people/knuttir/papers/meinshausen09nat.pdfhttp://cancun.unfccc.int/cancun-agreements/significance-of-the-key-agreements-reached-at-cancun/http://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/the-carbon-bubble-what-we-know-and-why-you-should-care/http://www.potomacinstitute.org/attachments/524_Maghreb%20Terrorism%20report.pdfhttp://www.economist.com/node/21550324http://leadership.ng/news/240413/nsa-blames-boko-haram-kidnappings-climate-changehttp://www.oecd.org/swac/publications/47234320.pdf


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Tis leaves us in with an unortunate choice: do wewant an increasingly warming planet, or a marketcrash that could dwar the Great Recession?

Te answer to this question is not clear, but it is

increasinglyunlikelythat the international communitywill succeed in meeting its 2 C goal based on currentprojections. I we push the timeline out past 2050,or actor in a higher acceptable temperature rise, thecarbon bubble shrinks. However, current reserves arenot static geological eatures; uture exploration anddiscovery eorts are virtual certainties, and this willcontinue to increase total global reserves, or, in theleast, keep pace with reserve depletion. Additionally,since reserves are merely economically viable resources,advances in technology or increases in price will alsoincrease the reserve-base.

One thing is certainthe world will eventuallyneed to shit away rom carbon-based energy tomitigate climate change. When that happens, there

will be stranded hydrocarbon reserves representedas a major portion o some o the largest publicallytraded companies (and their derivatives) in the world.Te collapse o these industries will result in massiveeconomic damage and its inevitable human cost.

In order to address this, markets and energy rms needto begin actoring in the possibility o unburnablecarbon. Last month, this question was raised at theannual shareholders meeting o Consol Energy, with19.7% o the vote supporting a proposal requesting aplan o action rom Consol regarding the potential ounburnable carbon. Tis signicant minority positionis a positive sign o a possible uture change in investorattitude toward this risk.

It is also possible that carbon capture and sequester(CCS) technology might prove to mitigate some othis bubble, as this technology would allow thesehydrocarbon reserves to be burned absent theirnatural carbon ootprint. While ar rom economicalat present, an external orce (e.g. carbon tax or

cap) would push increased research capital into thdevelopment o this technology. Firms have alreadspent billions o dollars on exploration, developmenand concessions; building on and utilizing ttechnology to make use o these resources in a cappcarbon-emission environment would mitigate loss

and soten market ramications. Te ossil uindustry is best positioned to bring these technologicchanges to market, but governments must act as rsmovers to push the market to price climate-relatexternalities into uture assessments.

Sooner or later, the world is going to run headloninto the carbon bubble or ace the consequences ochanging climate. Governments need to understan

what the carbon bubble is, the threat it poses, anhow to mitigate its potential or market damage. Tsolutions to this problem are not going to come easiindeed, it is quite possible that the world may simphave to push through this sel-manuactured timbomb in order to reach a renewable economy. Tbottom line is that the carbon bubble is coming anthe coverage that it is receiving is not proportional the immensity o the task beore usthat needs change.

Why Im Done alking AbouEnergy Security

Andrew Holland

Flashpoint BlogApril 19, 2013

I am oten asked to talk about energy security. Laweek, I participated in a conerence in which we weasked to comment on U.S. Energy Security: HoDo We Get Tere? As I listened to the presenteat the conerence, I realized that how you viewthe problem o Energy Security depends on hoyou identiy it. We all seem to have determined thenergy security is a problem, but we each had diere
http://theenergycollective.com/globalwarmingisreal/153056/climate-change-risk-looms-2-degree-limit-now-unlikelyhttp://theenergycollective.com/globalwarmingisreal/153056/climate-change-risk-looms-2-degree-limit-now-unlikelyhttp://blogs.wsj.com/corporate-intelligence/2013/05/16/after-bubbles-in-dotcoms-and-housing-heres-the-carbon-bubble/http://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/why-im-done-talking-about-energy-security/http://americansecurityproject.org/blog/2013/why-im-done-talking-about-energy-security/http://blogs.wsj.com/corporate-intelligence/2013/05/16/after-bubbles-in-dotcoms-and-housing-heres-the-carbon-bubble/http://theenergycollective.com/globalwarmingisreal/153056/climate-change-risk-looms-2-degree-limit-now-unlikely


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understandings o what the term energy securityactually means! O course, that means there were verydierent prescriptions or how to solve the problemso energy security.

In the absence o a denition, everyone denes energy

security dierently both speakers and listeners. It issomething like the late Margaret Tatcher said aboutthe politics o consensus: it is something in which noone believes and to which no one objects.Along thoselines, I believe that energy security has devolved intosimply a buzzword: a phrase that everyone avors,but denes dierently. Pundits, politicians, lobbyists,industry, and campaigners rom across the politicalspectrum cry energy security because it polls betterthan their preerred policies. I have done it as well.Listeners, then, are misled because, really, who couldactually be against energy security? It is like beingagainst mom, America, and apple pie.

As the Years Roll On

API uses energy security to argue that we need toopen more land to drilling. Proponents o Keystone

XL argue that we need a new pipeline rom Canadabecause o energy security. Environmentalists argueenergy security to tell us why we need to build more

windmills and solar power.

We all once agreed what energy security meant: in1973 and 1979, oil price spikes caused by OPECembargoes led to oil price controls and lines at the gaspump. Going even urther back, amateur historiansknow that the lack o oil was crippling or the German

war machine in the Second World War and that theRoyal Navy had to protect its access to oil in Persia.So, we think that energy security means the ability to

win wars and prevent shortages o energy.However, the truth is that America and the worldlargely solved these problems o energy security in the1970s and 1980s by diversiying the worlds sourceso oil, creating deep and liquid nancial markets, andcreating Strategic Petroleum Reserves in all OECDcountries. Meanwhile, our rhetoric and vocabulary

about energy security has not changed since then.Our energy debates are stuck in the shortages othe 1970s and the optimistic growth and low priceso 1980s. But the problems o 2013 are not theproblems o 30 or 40 years ago!

Retire the Outdated erm

It is time to retire the term energy security. I am goingto stop using it, and I am calling or other pundits todo so as well. Instead, we should all be more preciseabout what we are actually concerned with.

Are you araid that dependence on oreign oil makesit more likely that were unding terrorism? Ten youshould be arguing to get o oil completely, because in a ungible market any consumption drives upprices.

Are you worried that the prices o gasoline orelectricity are too high, and that price spikes areharming our pocketbooks? Dont cry energy security instead talk about energy aordability.Have you read your history books closely and are

worried that our military wont have access to energy,like Winston Churchill was around the turn o the

last century when the Royal Navy switched rom(British-produced) coal to petroleum rom oil eldso Persia? Dont be unlike the world o the early20th Century, there is no conceivable scenario in

which the U.S. military is unable to access the oil itneeds to ght and win Americas wars.

Do you think that we need more clean energyproduction rom wind and solar? Dont say we needit or energy security be truthul and say we need

more wind and solar because they are cleaner, withewer polluting emissions.Conclusion: Be Specic About the Real Issue

We have talked about the concept o energy securityso much that it no longer means anything. All o us

writers should retire the term: it has become what


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George Orwell called a dying metaphor a termwhich haslost all evocative power and [is] merely usedbecause they save people the trouble o inventing phrases

or themselves.

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