AN ANALYSIS OF THE PAKISTAN-INDONESIA PTA & A …

AN ANALYSIS OF THE PAKISTAN-INDONESIA PTA & A FRAMEWORK FOR NEGOTIATING THE
PAKISTAN-INDONESIA FTA
AN ANALYSIS OF THE PAKISTAN-INDONESIA PTA & A FRAMEWORK FOR NEGOTIATING
THE PAKISTAN-INDONESIA FTA
Team Leader: Samir S. Amir Lead Researcher: Danish Hyder
Disclaimer: The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Directors and Members of the Pakistan Business Council or the companies they represent.
Any conclusions of analysis based on ITC, IDB, CTS, UNCTSD and WEO data are the responsibility of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the WTO, IMF or UN.
Although every effort has been made to cross-check and verify the authenticity of the data, the Pakistan Business Council does not guarantee the data included in this work. All data and statistics used are correct as of 1 April, 2015, and may be subject to change.
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The Pakistan Business Council: An Overview
The Pakistan Business Council (PBC) is a business policy advocacy forum, representing private-sector businesses that have substantial investments in Pakistan’s economy. It was formed in 2005 by 14 (now 47) of Pakistan’s largest enterprises, including multinationals, to allow businesses to meaningfully interact with government and other stakeholders.
The Pakistan Business Council is a pan-industry advocacy group. It is not a trade body nor does it advocate for any specific business sector. Rather, its key advocacy thrust is on easing barriers to allow Pakistani businesses to compete in regional and global arenas.
The PBC works closely with the relevant government departments, ministries, regulators and institutions, as well as other stakeholders including professional bodies, to develop consensus on major issues which impact the conduct of business in and from Pakistan. The PBC has submitted key position papers and recommendations to the government on legislation and other government policies affecting businesses. It also serves on various taskforces and committees of the Government of Pakistan as well as those of the State Bank, SECP and other regulators with the objective to provide policy assistance on new initiatives and reforms.
The PBC conducts research and holds conferences and seminars to facilitate the flow of relevant information to all stakeholders in order to help create an informed view on the major issues faced by Pakistan.
The PBC’s Founding Objectives:
• To provide for the formation and exchange of views on any question connected with the conduct of businesses in and from Pakistan.
• To conduct, organize, set up, administer and manage campaigns, surveys, focus groups, workshops, seminars and field works for carrying out research and raising awareness in regard to matters affecting businesses in Pakistan.
• To acquire, collect, compile, analyze, publish and provide statistics, data analysis and other information relating to businesses of any kind, nature or description and on opportunities for such businesses within and outside Pakistan.
• To promote and facilitate the integration of businesses in Pakistan into the world economy and to encourage the development and growth of Pakistani multinationals.
• To interact with Governments in the economic development of Pakistan and to facilitate, foster and further the economic, social and human resource development of Pakistan.
The PBC is a Section 42 not-for-profit Company Limited by Guarantee. Its working is overseen by a Board of Directors elected every three years by the Membership with the Board being headed by a Non-Executive Chairman. The day-to-day operations of the PBC are run by a professional secretariat headed by a full-time, paid CEO.
More information on the PBC, its members, and its workings, can be found on its website: www.pbc.org.pk
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Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................................................................... xi
Key Findings ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ xi
2.0 Pakistan and Indonesia GDP and Trade Balance ................................................................................................................................. 03
3.0 Pakistan and Indonesia Trade Profiles .................................................................................................................................................. 05
3.1 Pakistan’s Major World Exports ................................................................................................................................................... 05
3.2 Pakistan’s Major World Imports ............................................................................................................................................................ 06
3.3 Indonesia’s Major World Exports .......................................................................................................................................................... 07
3.4 Indonesia’s Major World Imports .......................................................................................................................................................... 08
4.0 Pakistan and Indonesia Major FTAs............................................................................................................................................. 09
4.2 Indonesia’s Major FTAs ......................................................................................................................................................................... 10
5.0 Pakistan Trade with Indonesia at a glance .................................................................................................................................. 11
5.1 Pakistan’s Top Exports to Indonesia ..................................................................................................................................................... 11
5.2 Pakistan’s Top Imports from Indonesia ................................................................................................................................................. 13
5.3 Top Pakistani Exports to Indonesia at 6 digit HS code ......................................................................................................................... 15
5.4 Top Pakistani Imports from Indonesia at 6-digit HS code .................................................................................................................... 16
5.5 Pakistan’s Comparison with Indonesia’s top trading partners ............................................................................................................. 17
6.0 Pakistan Indonesia PTA Overview ......................................................................................................................................................... 19
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SECTION II: ANALYSIS OF HIGH POTENTIAL PAKISTANI EXPORTS TO INDONESIA 7.0 Pakistan Exports to Indonesia Trade Potential Overview ........................................................................................................... 23
7.1 Top 50 High Potential Pakistani Exports to Indonesia at the 8 Digit HS Code Level ........................................................................... 23
7.2 Sectoral Overview of High potential Pakistani exports to Indonesia .................................................................................................... 30
7.2.1 Pharmaceutical Products ...................................................................................................................................................................... 31
7.2.2 Mandarin (Kinnow) ................................................................................................................................................................................ 32
7.2.8 Copper Waste and Scrap ...................................................................................................................................................................... 41
7.2.9 Articles of Apparel, knit or crochet ........................................................................................................................................................ 42
7.2.10 Articles of Apparel, not knit or crochet .................................................................................................................................................. 43
7.2.11 Footwear ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 44
SECTION III: ANALYSIS OF HIGH POTENTIAL INDONESIAN EXPORTS TO PAKISTAN
8.0 Indonesia Exports to Pakistan Trade Potential Overview ........................................................................................................... 49
8.1 Top 50 High Potential Indonesian Exports to Pakistan at the 8 Digit HS Code Level .......................................................................... 49
8.2 Sectoral Overview of High potential Indonesian exports to Pakistan ................................................................................................... 52
8.2.1 Unsolid Fractions of Refined Palm Oil .................................................................................................................................................. 53
8.2.2 Mineral Fuels ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 54
8.2.9 Machinery .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 61
SECTION IV: RECOMMENDATIONS
9.0 Recommendations ................................................................................................................................................................................ 65
Annexures
Top 100 Pakistani High Potential Exports to Indonesia at 8 digit HS Code Level ............................................................................................. 66
Top 100 Indonesian High Potential Exports to Pakistan at 8 digit HS Code Level ............................................................................................ 72
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
KEY FINDINGS
The Pakistan-Indonesia Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) was signed in February 2012 and was formally activated by the two countries in September 2013. Major items that stood to benefit from the PTA were Kinnow exports from Pakistan, which were granted full concession by Indonesia, and palm oil imports from Indonesia, which were granted a 15% margin of preference over the standard tariff rate by Pakistan. Pakistan’s exports to Indonesia grew from USD 47 million in 2003 to USD 144 million in 2013, whereas its imports from Indonesia rose from USD 266 million in 2003 to USD 1.2 billion in 2013. Major Pakistani exports to Indonesia include cotton, rice and corn, whereas major imports from Indonesia include palm oil, staple fibres and edible nuts.
This report analyses the trade potential of selected export and import items between Pakistan and Indonesia at the 8 digit HS code level. Intuitively, trade potential is the theoretical extent to which trade of a given item can be expanded, which suggests the actual scope for growth in trade of that item.
Pakistani exports to Indonesia are shown to possess a trade potential of USD 2.3 billion, with USD 1.0 billion of this potential residing within 50 individual items at the 8 digit HS code level. Sectors with notable trade potential include Kinnow, cotton products, articles of apparel, plastics and pharmaceutical products. Tariffs imposed by Indonesia on its FTA partners are provided in a later section for comparison with the rates offered to Pakistan under the PTA.
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HS Code Product Label Trade Potential in USD millions Number of high potential items at 8 digit HS code
52 Cotton 500 21
39 Plastics 140 3
62 Articles of Apparel, not knit or crochet 40 2
61 Articles of Apparel, knit or crochet 33 3
Indonesian exports to Pakistan are shown to possess a trade potential of USD 11.7 billion, with USD 9.8 billion of this potential residing within 50 individual items at the 8 digit HS code level. Sectors with significant trade potential include palm oil, manmade filaments and mineral fuels.
HS Code Product Label Trade Potential in USD millions Number of high potential items at 8 digit HS code
27 Mineral Fuels 6,600 4
15 Animal, Vegetable Oils (Palm Oil) 940 1
29 Organic Chemicals 475 9
54 Manmade Filaments 282 3
84 Machinery, Nuclear Reactors, Boilers etc. 216 5
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RECOMMENDATIONS The findings of the report suggest that there is enough potential for trade between Pakistan and Indonesia to justify fast-tracking negotiations for a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the two, one that pays particular attention to the high-potential sectors identified herein. While concessions on Kinnow are a step in the right direction, Pakistan has the ability to export several other items to Indonesia on which it currently faces higher tariffs than Indonesia’s other FTA partners.
This Study shows that Pakistan has offered more favourable terms to high potential Indonesian items than Indonesia has offered to high potential Pakistani items relative to the countries’ other FTA partners. If concessions are not sought on high potential Pakistan export items such as cotton, articles of apparel, plastics etc., which collectively represent hundreds of millions of dollars of trade potential, the Pakistan-Indonesia FTA will remain a token arrangement with little real-world benefit for Pakistan. The terms of the current PTA do not offer concessions or preferential treatment on many high potential items identified at the 8 digit HS code level in this Study. The FTA will require significant refocusing and renegotiation of the PTA’s terms if it is to be expected to deliver results for Pakistan.
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1.0 STUDY OBJECTIVES The primary objective of this Study is to review the potential impact on Pakistan-Indonesia bilateral trade following the signing of the Preferential Trade Agreement between the two countries in 2012 and which has come into force in September 2013. The Study identifies high potential items for trade between Pakistan and Indonesia and proposes a roadmap for negotiating a Free Trade Agreement between the two countries with emphasis on products with high potential that are not currently part of the PTA. Additionally those high potential items which are part of the PTA but within whom Pakistan has been given lower tariff preferences as compared to Indonesia’s other trading partners have also been identified.
Since the Study covers bilateral trade, it identifies the following:
a) Items at the 8 digit HS code level possessing high potential for export from Pakistan to Indonesia b) Items at the 8 digit HS code level possessing high potential for export from Indonesia to Pakistan
SOURCES OF DATA
The data for this study has been drawn from ITC Trademap for the period ended 2013 , which bases its data on UN Comtrade, maintained by the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD). Any quarterly and monthly data is drawn by Trademap from national and regional sources. Tariff values are drawn from Trademap and checked against the terms of the FTAs of the relevant countries available on their government websites.
METHODOLOGY
For estimating the potential for trade, the trade potential method has been used. Trade potential is given as:
Trade Potential=
(Indonesia’s imports from the world of X – Pakistan’s current exports to Indonesia of X) if {(Pakistan’s exports to the world of X) – (Indonesia’s imports from the world of X)} > 0
And
(Pakistan’s exports to the world of X – Pakistan’s current exports to Indonesia of X) if {(Pakistan’s exports to the world of X) – {(Indonesia’s imports from the world of X)} < 0
1 2013 was the last year for which complete data was available.
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For example:
(Pakistan’s exports to the world of Kinnow = USD 124 million) – (Indonesia’s imports from the word of Kinnow= USD 93 million)>0, so
Trade Potential= (Indonesia’s imports from the world of Kinnow=USD 93 million) – (Pakistan’s current exports to Indonesia of Kinnow= USD 3 million)= USD 90 million
Intuitively, trade potential is the theoretical extent to which trade of a given item can be expanded, which suggests the actual scope for growth in trade of that item. So if as in the example above Pakistan exports USD 124 million worth of Kinnow to the world, and Indonesia imports USD 93 million worth of Kinnow from the world, and Pakistan exports USD 3 million worth of Kinnow to Indonesia, then trade potential is USD 90 million, since Pakistan has the capacity to export USD 90 million worth of Kinnow to Indonesia given Indonesia’s import requirements.
It should be noted that trade potential values show the theoretical capacity for expanding trade with a particular country at a particular point in time. In other words, the values signify the amount of trade Pakistan could do with Indonesia if both countries did as much trade with one another as possible (given the supplying capacity of one and the total demand of the other) before moving on to trade with other countries. Therefore trade potential values are not the same as rigorous projections of a best-case-scenario for any given export item vis-à-vis Indonesia.
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2.0 COMPARISON OF PAKISTAN AND INDONESIA GDP AND TRADE BALANCE 2003-2013
• Pakistan’s GDP grew from USD 83.24 billion in 2003 to USD 232.2 billion in 2013.
• Indonesia’s GDP grew from USD 234.8 billion in 2003 to USD 868.3 billion in 2013
• Pakistan has experienced a general decrease in its trade balance from USD -1.1 billion in 2003 to USD -18.6 billion in 2013.
• Indonesia’s trade balance has also fallen during this period from USD 25 billion in 2003 to USD -4 billion in 2013.
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3.0 PAKISTAN AND INDONESIA TRADE PROFILES
3.1 PAKISTAN’S MAJOR WORLD EXPORTS
• Pakistan’s major exports to the world include cotton, cereals (rice), articles of apparel and articles of leather.
• Since 2007 exports of cotton have grown by 55%, exports of cereals by 76%, and exports of articles of apparel by 14%.
Figures in USD Billions PAKISTAN MAJOR WORLD EXPORTS
HS Code Product label Export Value in 2007
Export Value in 2008
52 Cotton 3.44 3.60 3.20 4.01 5.10 5.23 5.33
63 Other made textile articles, sets, worn clothing etc 3.18 3.15 2.92 3.29 3.57 3.29 3.69
10 Cereals 1.24 2.51 1.82 2.28 2.81 2.06 2.18
61 Articles of apparel, accessories, knit or crochet 1.85 1.89 1.68 1.98 2.24 2.01 2.11
62 Articles of apparel, accessories, not knit or crochet 1.37 1.36 1.21 1.46 1.78 1.69 1.86
42 Articles of leather, animal gut, harness, travel goods 0.69 0.77 0.58 0.62 0.68 0.67 0.74
25 Salt, sulphur, earth, stone, plaster, lime and cement 0.25 0.60 0.56 0.51 0.57 0.71 0.72
17 Sugars and sugar confectionery 0.06 0.24 0.11 0.09 0.07 0.25 0.63
41 Raw hides and skins (other than furskins) and leather 0.39 0.38 0.27 0.42 0.47 0.46 0.53
27 Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products, etc 0.99 1.23 0.72 1.20 1.31 0.33 0.53
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3.2 PAKISTAN’S MAJOR WORLD IMPORTS
• Pakistan’s major imports include petroleum oil, electronic equipment, palm oil and organic chemicals.
• Since 2007 imports of mineral fuels have grown by 91%, imports of electronic equipment have fallen by 22%, and imports of organic chemicals have risen by 29%.
Figures in USD Billions
PAKISTAN MAJOR WORLD IMPORTS
Import Value in 2008
84 Machinery, nuclear reactors, boilers, etc 3.26 3.92 3.12 2.95 2.95 3.06 3.06
85 Electrical, electronic equipment 3.45 3.78 2.62 2.44 2.43 2.75 2.68
29 Organic chemicals 1.57 1.76 1.52 1.72 2.21 2.04 2.02
15 Animal,vegetable fats and oils, cleavage products, etc 1.30 1.88 1.41 1.85 2.59 2.31 1.98
72 Iron and steel 1.54 1.63 1.68 1.70 1.68 1.85 1.84
39 Plastics and articles thereof 1.28 1.36 1.19 1.46 1.68 1.50 1.57
87 Vehicles other than railway, tramway 1.42 1.18 0.97 1.31 1.50 1.60 1.24
52 Cotton 0.92 1.21 0.50 0.83 0.91 0.68 1.05
89 Ships, boats and other floating structures 0.57 0.18 0.40 0.84 0.53 0.54 0.98
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3.3 INDONESIA’S MAJOR WORLD EXPORTS
• Indonesia’s major exports to the world include natural gas, coal, palm oil and rubber.
• The period of 2007-2013 has seen particularly notable increases in export of mineral fuels, which rose by 96%, and of animal and vegetable oils, which grew by 88%.
INDONESIA MAJOR WORLD EXPORTS
TOTAL All products 114.10 137.02 116.51 157.78 203.50 190.03 182.55
15 Animal,vegetable fats and oils, cleavage products, etc 10.23 15.62 12.22 16.31 21.66 21.30 19.22
40 Rubber and articles thereof 6.25 7.64 4.91 9.37 14.35 10.48 9.39
26 Ores, slag and ash 5.10 4.30 5.80 8.15 7.34 5.08 6.54
62 Articles of apparel, accessories, not knit or crochet 3.31 3.40 3.13 3.61 4.15 3.74 3.90
64 Footwear, gaiters and the like, parts thereof 1.64 1.89 1.74 2.50 3.30 3.52 3.86
38 Miscellaneous chemical products 0.93 1.58 1.21 1.87 3.67 3.85 3.82
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3.4 INDONESIA’S MAJOR WORLD IMPORTS
• Indonesia’s major imports include petroleum oil, wheat and meslin, cotton and cellular phones.
• Imports of mineral fuels have grown by 106% between 2007 and 2013, while imports of electronic equipment grew by 292% over the same period. Iron and steel and vehicle imports also showed significant growth during this period.
INDONESIA MAJOR WORLD IMPORTS
TOTAL All products 74.47 129.24 96.83 135.66 177.44 191.69 186.63
72 Iron and steel 4.17 8.28 4.36 6.37 8.58 10.14 9.55
39 Plastics and articles thereof 2.20 3.95 3.22 4.82 6.69 6.99 7.64
29 Organic chemicals 3.88 5.13 3.94 5.33 6.63 6.88 7.01
73 Articles of iron or steel 1.37 3.34 2.78 3.45 3.57 4.89 4.75
10 Cereals 1.80 2.20 1.51 2.16 4.75 3.71 3.62
23 Residues, wastes of food industry, animal fodder 1.15 1.74 1.68 1.87 2.22 2.80 3.04
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4.1 PAKISTAN’S MAJOR FTAS
Pakistan entered into a number of major free trade agreements during the 2000s. The impact of these FTAs on bilateral trade with the partner countries is given below. All figures are in USD Millions.
• Pakistan’s FTA with China entered into effect in July 2007. Both imports and exports from China have witnessed significant growth since then, with exports outpacing imports.
Pakistan’s Trade with China
2006 2013 Growth
Exports 507 2,652 2,145
Imports 2914 6,626 3712
• Pakistan’s FTA with Malaysia became effective in January 2008. Exports to Malaysia have not shown very significant growth during this period, whereas Malaysia’s exports to Pakistan have fared better.
Pakistan’s Trade with Malaysia
2007 2013 Growth
Exports 81 204 123
Imports 1,158 1,920 762
• Pakistan’s FTA with Sri Lanka came into effect in June 2005. Trade between Pakistan and China has witnessed slow growth, with both countries failing to truly capitalize on the FTA.
Pakistan’s Trade with Sri Lanka
2004 2013 Growth
4.2 INDONESIA’S MAJOR FTAS
Indonesia is a member of ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) and has entered into major FTAs with several countries as a part of ASEAN. All figures are in USD Billions.
• Indonesia’s FTA with China came into effect in January 2010. Since 2007 Indonesia’s trade with China has experienced significant growth, with imports from China rising by nearly twice as much as exports.
Indonesia’s Trade with China
2007 2013 Growth
Exports 9.68 22.60 12.93
Imports 8.56 29.85 21.29
• Indonesia’s FTA with Japan became effective in December 2008. Indonesia’s imports from Japan have grown by a much larger margin than its exports to the country.
Indonesia’s Trade with Japan
2007 2013 Growth
Exports 23.63 27.09 3.45
Imports 6.53 19.28 12.76
• Indonesia’s FTA with South Korea came into force in June 2007. Again, Indonesia’s exports to the country have grown by a significantly smaller amount than its imports from it.
Indonesia’s Trade with South Korea
2006 2013 Growth
Exports 7.69 11.42 3.73
Imports 2.87 11.59 8.72
• Indonesia’s FTA with India came into effect in January 2010. Indonesia’s exports to India have risen four times as much as its imports from the country during the period under consideration
Indonesia’s Trade with India
2007 2013 Growth
5.1 PAKISTAN’S TOP EXPORTS TO INDONESIA
• Pakistan’s total exports to Indonesia in 2013 amounted to USD 144 million, up 115% from USD 67 million in 2009.
• However, despite significant growth Pakistan’s 2013 exports to Indonesia accounted for a mere 0.08% of Indonesia’s total world import value of USD 187 billion that year.
• Pakistan’s top exports to Indonesia at the 2 digit HS code level include cotton, cereals, leather and fruit.
• Percentage increases in major exports over the period 2009-2013 are misleadingly high in several cases as a result of negligible exports to Indonesia in 2009.
• While the past few years have seen Pakistan establish a trade relationship with Indonesia, it still claimed very small percentages of Indonesia’s total imports in 2013 within the top 20 export HS codes.
Figures in USD Millions
HS Code Product label
2009
2011
2011
2012
2013
Indonesia World
Imports 2013
% of Total Indonesian
Imports 2013
TOTAL All products 67.07 73.85 188.53 236.32 144.38 115 186,629 0.08
52 Cotton 41.18 40.37 82.04 84.00 63.09 53 2,555 5.7 2.47
10 Cereals 3.78 2.76 39.33 84.93 32.87 771 3,621 4.1 0.91
41 Raw hides and skins (other than furskins) and leather 2.34 8.24 15.68 8.82 10.76 359 428 0.3 2.52
74 Copper and articles thereof 0.49 0.75 8.18 20.40 8.42 1612 1,306 4.9 0.65
03 Fish, crustaceans, molluscs, aquatic invertebrates nes 2.14 5.42 6.53 6.46 6.51 204 216 5.4 3.01
23 Residues, wastes of food industry, animal fodder 0.00 1.19 5.39 0.07 3.55 300 3,042 1.1 0.12
55 Manmade staple fibres 3.29 6.00 6.34 9.98 3.23 -2 1,352 7.8 0.24
08 Edible fruit, nuts, peel of citrus fruit, melons 0.09 0.33 3.13 4.14 2.31 2620 667 6.7 0.35
62 Articles of apparel, accessories, not knit or crochet 0.22 0.46 1.36 1.13 1.73 699 267 14.8 0.65
78 Lead and articles thereof 1.67 1.05 1.74 4.05 1.70 2 239 5.2 0.71
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2009
2011
2011
2012
2013
Indonesia World
Imports 2013
% of Total Indonesian
Imports 2013
22 Beverages, spirits and vinegar 1.14 1.64 2.20 2.50 1.41 24 101 89.9 1.40
24 Tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes 0.00 0.00 3.99 1.30 1.26 -68 724 24.6 0.17
25 Salt, sulphur, earth, stone, plaster, lime and cement 0.21 0.13 0.39 0.45 1.09 429 1,083 2.4 0.10
28 Inorganic chemicals, precious metal compound, isotopes 0.00 0.16 1.11 0.92 0.89 456 1,915 4.7 0.05
84 Machinery, nuclear reactors, boilers, etc 0.39 0.86 1.03 0.08 0.79 103 27,291 4.3 0.00
12 Oil seed, oleagic fruits, grain, seed, fruit, etc, nes 0.12 0.25 0.47 0.66 0.72 487 1,482 1.5 0.05
61 Articles of apparel, accessories, knit or crochet 0.08 0.11 0.12 0.11 0.56 634 210 14.9 0.27
90 Optical, photo, technical, medical, etc apparatus 0.37 0.29 0.43 0.35 0.50 36 2,353 4.7 0.02
16 Meat, fish and seafood food preparations nes 0.49 0.51 1.19 0.71 0.39 -21 35 5 1.11
63 Other made textile articles, sets, worn clothing etc 2.55 0.19 0.69 0.40 0.34 -87 67 12.5 0.51
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5.2 PAKISTAN’S TOP IMPORTS FROM INDONESIA
• Pakistan’s total imports from Indonesia amounted to USD 1.2 billion in 2013, up by 85% from USD 653 million in 2009. Pakistan’s major imports from Indonesia include palm oil, coal, rubber and manmade staple fibres.
• Indonesian exports account for a major proportion of Pakistani world imports of a number of HS codes, such as animal and vegetable fats and oils (36%), manmade staple fibres (19%), paper and paperboard (47%) and edible fruits (17%).
• Overall, Indonesia accounts for 2.76% of Pakistan’s total world imports, a relatively small fraction but considerably higher than Pakistan’s 0.08% share of Indonesian world imports.
• This along with Indonesia’s significant penetration in a number of HS codes suggests that Indonesia has been able to capitalize on its trade relationship with Pakistan to a far greater extent than Pakistan
Pakistan’s Imports from
% of Total Pakistani
Imports 2013
TOTAL All products 653.59 675.66 929.76 1,351.33 1,208.32 85 43,775.18 2.76
15 Animal,vegetable fats and oils, cleavage products, etc 152.81 55.26 244.30 739.55 708.34 364 1,979.64 25.8 35.78
55 Manmade staple fibres 31.65 51.52 83.06 92.05 99.61 215 532.44 12.1 18.71
27 Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products, etc 185.91 232.41 182.31 198.44 92.90 -50 15,247.36 7 0.61
08 Edible fruit, nuts, peel of citrus fruit, melons 64.54 65.35 58.79 67.07 73.72 14 132.96 20.3 16.70
48 Paper and paperboard, articles of pulp, paper and board 54.16 56.74 69.96 64.57 61.90 14 441.38 18.8 46.55
40 Rubber and articles thereof 13.53 22.19 32.49 25.62 20.15 49 460.02 16.5 4.38
38 Miscellaneous chemical products 17.85 14.58 16.22 17.22 19.63 10 583.06 9.8 5.10
87 Vehicles other than railway, tramway 9.80 21.34 16.72 14.07 18.23 86 1,238.25 59.9 1.47
09 Coffee, tea, mate and spices 8.99 10.20 10.18 14.45 12.58 40 384.87 9.2 8.57
47 Pulp of wood, fibrous cellulosic material, waste etc 1.60 3.56 4.60 11.01 10.73 570 106.82 1 1.84
29 Organic chemicals 10.05 15.18 14.39 12.76 9.61 -4 2,015.50 7.1 0.48
39 Plastics and articles thereof 8.66 7.08 10.13 7.38 7.38 -15 1,569.50 13 1.52
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% of Total Pakistani
Imports 2013
73 Articles of iron or steel 1.26 1.10 1.48 3.12 6.89 448 485.54 16.7 0.44
85 Electrical, electronic equipment 13.88 7.68 6.94 8.41 6.15 -56 2,682.33 14.9 5.76
32 Tanning, dyeing extracts, tannins, derivs,pigments etc 3.89 4.95 5.68 5.50 5.99 54 329.74 13.6 0.22
34 Soaps, lubricants, waxes, candles, modelling pastes 1.87 2.58 3.71 5.06 5.88 215 146.85 21.3 0.69
96 Miscellaneous manufactured articles 3.14 4.12 5.12 6.82 5.79 84 186.17 21.7 5.16
84 Machinery, nuclear reactors, boilers, etc 8.35 4.64 6.18 8.28 5.60 -33 3,058.29 10.3 1.06
54 Manmade filaments 9.23 15.86 14.83 7.11 5.41 -41 527.17 13.2 1.43
30 Pharmaceutical products 0.40 3.20 4.62 1.04 4.44 1,017 674.68 12 2.38
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5.3 TOP PAKISTANI EXPORTS TO INDONESIA AT 6 DIGIT HS CODE
0
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HS 100640 Rice, broken
HS 740400 Copper Waste
HS 030353 Frozen Sardines
• Pakistan’s top export to Indonesia at the 6 digit HS code level, HS 520100 (Cotton, not carded or combed), rose to USD 66 million in exports to Indonesia in 2012 but fell precipitously the following year to USD 36 million.
• Rice and copper waste also registered similar trends, peaking in 2012 at USD 52 million and USD 31 million respectively before suffering a significant fall in exports to Indonesia in the following year.
• Frozen sardines and woven fabrics of cottons also peaked in 2012 and reported roughly the same amount of exports to Indonesia in 2013.
• While HS 520100 has received full concession from Indonesia and HS 740400 faces no tariffs either, none of the other products appear on Indonesia’s concession list.
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5.4 TOP PAKISTANI IMPORTS FROM INDONESIA AT 6 DIGIT HS CODE
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HS080280 Areca nuts
HS 550410 Staple fibres of viscose, not carded or combed
HS 270119 Coal nes
HS 151110 Palm oil, crude
• Refined palm oil is Pakistan’s biggest import from Indonesia by a wide margin, rising steeply from USD 257 million in imports to Pakistan in 2011 to USD 778 million in 2013.
• On the other hand, imports of crude palm oil peaked in 2008 and have fallen since then.
• Imports of Areca nuts began in 2012 at a high level of USD 61 million.
• Imports of coal grew steadily until 2010 after which they stagnated before falling off from USD 73 million in 2012 to USD 56 million in 2013.
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5.5 PAKISTAN’S COMPARISON WITH INDONESIA’S TOP TRADING PARTNERS 2003-2013
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• Pakistan’s exports to Indonesia have remained stagnant at a very low level while Indonesia’s top export partners have witnessed significant growth during the period of 2004-2013.
• China and Singapore were Indonesia’s top origins for imports by a significant margin in 2013, exporting very similar values to Indonesia between 2009 and 2012 before China emerged as Indonesia’s top export source in 2013.
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6.0 PAKISTAN-INDONESIA PTA OVERVIEW • The first round of meetings discussing the Pakistan-Indonesia trade agreement were held in August 2003 but stalled due to disagreement
on duties to be levied on palm oil (a significant Indonesian export to the world) and Kinnow (a significant Pakistani export to the world).
• It took eight rounds of talks to iron out the details of the agreement and the PTA was signed in February 2012. However, problems relating to non-tariff barriers on Kinnow exports to Indonesia resulted in further delays, and it took till September 2013 for the terms of the PTA to come into effect.
• Pakistan offered Indonesia full concession on 81 items including desiccated coconut and sweet potatoes, whereas Indonesia offered full concession on 100 items including oranges and certain pharmaceutical products.
• Pakistan also cut custom duties to 5% on 53 items, to 9% on 24 items, and to 16% on 48 items. Indonesia cut custom duties to 5% on 110 items and to 9% on 17 items. Pakistan offered some level of concession on a total of 287 items and Indonesia offered the same on 216 items.
• It is worth noting that under the terms of the PTA Indonesia granted full concession to oranges, a Pakistani export to the country that possesses significant potential. Pakistan reciprocated by offering a 15% Margin of Preference on the standard tariff rate to Indonesia palm oil products, which also have good potential for capturing the Pakistani market.
• While Kinnow was among the highest potential products at the 8-digit level HS code (with a trade potential of over USD 90 million), Pakistan failed to secure concessions in several other high potential products, such as cotton products which have over USD 500 million in trade potential within 19 items at the 8-digit level.
Tariff Reduction Pakistan Indonesia
Down to 5% customs duty 53 items 110 items
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7.0 PAKISTANI EXPORTS TO INDONESIA TRADE POTENTIAL OVERVIEW
7.1 TOP 50 HIGH POTENTIAL PAKISTANI EXPORTS TO INDONESIA AT 8 DIGIT HS CODE
• An analysis of 2888 Pakistani export items from a total of 4980 at the 8 digit HS code level reveals a trade potential with Indonesia of USD 2.3 billion.
• The total trade potential within the top 100 items at the 8 digit HS code level is USD 1.8 billion. Out of this, USD 1.54 billion lies within items that have not been given concessions by Indonesia under the PTA.
• The high potential items analysed accounted for over USD 80 million of Pakistan’s total exports to Indonesia in 2013, prior to the coming into effect of the PTA.
• The top 50 high potential items at the 8 digit HS code level account for USD 1.5 billion of the total potential calculated. 80% of this potential, USD 1.2 billion, lies in items that have received no concession from Indonesia under the PTA.
• In 2013 exports of these 50 high potential items amounted to USD 70 million.
• 65% of the calculated trade potential exists along 50 tariff lines on the 8 digit HS level.
• Significant trade potential lies in plastics, cotton, pharmaceutical products, oranges and leather products, along with other areas detailed in the following section.
• However, Indonesia’s major FTA partners China, Japan, South Korea and India all face considerably lower tariffs on most of these high-potential items.
• An asterisk denotes a tariff drawn from 6 digit HS code data due to the unavailability of the information at the 8 digit level.
TOP 50 HIGH POTENTIAL PAKISTANI EXPORTS TO INDONESIA AT 8 DIGIT LEVEL
HS code Product label
Pakistan's Exports to Indonesia
Potential to Indonesia
Tariff on Pakistan
Tariff on China
Tariff on Japan
Tariff on Korea
Tariff on India
90189090 Oth inst,app medical/sur/veten 0.51 115.49 296.61 114.98 5 0 0 0 4.5*
52081900
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2: Unbleached: Other fabrics
0.01 106.16 92.58 92.57 10 0 0 0 6
8052010 Kinnow, fresh 2.33 92.59 124.22 89.39 0 0 20 20 25
39076020 Bottle grade 0.00 83.76 157.92 83.76 5 0 0 0 2.5*
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Potential to Indonesia
Tariff on Pakistan
Tariff on China
Tariff on Japan
Tariff on Korea
Tariff on India
74040090 Waste and scrap, copper or copper alloy:other 8.13 79.04 111.65 70.91 0 0 0 0 0
52101100
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing less than 85 % by weight of cotton, mixed mainly or solely with manmade fibres, weighing not more than 200 g/m2: Unbleached: Plain weave
0.17 69.11 127.11 68.94 10 0 0 0 6
10064000 Rice:Broken rice 15.31 77.90 250.24 62.60 12.6 Rp450/Kg 12.6* 0 Rp 450/kg
52091900
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, weighing more than 200 g/m2: Unbleached: Other fabrics
0.00 54.38 96.21 54.38 10 0 0 0 6
64039900
Footwear with outer soles of rubber, plastics, leather or composition leather and uppers of leather: Other footwear: Other
0.00 44.00 74.44 44.00 20 0 20 0 8
41079200
Leather further prepared after tanning or crusting, including parchment- dressed leather, of bovine (including buffalo) or equine animals, without hair on, whether or not split, other than leather of heading 41. 14: Other, including sides: Grain splits
1.92 42.40 84.73 40.48 0 0 0 0 0
52083900
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2: Dyed: Other fabrics
3.05 39.20 38.81 35.76 10 0 0 0 6
62034200
Men's or boys' suits, ensembles, jackets, blazers, trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts (other than swimwear): Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts: Of cotton
1.13 34.26 334.19 33.14 15 15 0 0 15
7019000 Potatoes, fresh or chilled: Other 0.00 32.62 93.30 32.62 20 0 0 0 25
30049099
Medicaments (excluding goods of heading 30. 02, 30. 05 or 30. 06) consisting of mixed or unmixed products for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, put up in measured doses (including those in the form of transdermal administration systems) or in forms or packings for retail sale: Other: Other: Other
0.00 247.18 32.09 32.09 4.7* 0 4.7* 0 5
25
52103100
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing less than 85 % by weight of cotton, mixed mainly or solely with manmade fibres, weighing not more than 200 g/m2: Dyed: Plain weave
0.27 31.35 77.94 31.08 10 0 0 0 6
52093200
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, weighing more than 200 g/m2: Dyed: 3-thread or 4-thread twill, including cross twill
14.34 43.21 191.57 28.87 10 0 0 0 6
39159000 Waste, parings and scrap, of plastics: Of other plastics 0.02 73.18 28.78 28.76 5 5 5 0 2
55132100
Woven fabrics of synthetic staple fibres, containing less than 85 % by weight of such fibres, mixed mainly or solely with cotton, of a weight not exceeding 170 g/m2: Dyed: Of polyester staple fibres, plain weave
0.16 28.10 66.34 27.94 10 0 0 0 6
39076090 Oth polyethylene terephthalate 0.00 166.96 27.38 27.38 5 0 0 0 0
10011900 Wheat and meslin. durum wheat : other 0.21 78.64 26.84 26.63 0 0 0 0 0
30043900 Oth medicimentharmone not ant 0.00 25.00 32.06 25.00 5 0 5 0 2
52094200
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, weighing more than 200 g/m2: Of yarns of different colours: Denim
0.09 24.59 533.60 24.50 10 0 0 0 6
27101941 Furnace oil 0.00 319.54 24.15 24.15 1.6* 0 1.6* 1.3* 0
55121900
Woven fabrics of synthetic staple fibres, containing 85 % or more by weight of synthetic staple fibres: Containing 85 % or more by weight of polyester staple fibres: Other
0.00 24.08 32.11 24.08 15 0 0 0 8
52082900
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2: Bleached: Other fabrics
0.55 30.07 23.52 22.97 10 0 0 0 6
25239000
Portland cement, aluminous cement, slag cement, supersulphate cement and similar hydraulic cements, whether or not coloured or in the form of clinkers: Other hydraulic cements
0.00 103.75 19.88 19.88 0 0 0 0 0
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52083200
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2: Dyed: Plain weave, weighing more than 100 g/m2
0.04 92.31 19.73 19.73 10 0 0 0 6
52081200
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2: Unbleached: Plain weave, weighing more than 100 g/m2
0.00 17.19 222.02 17.19 10 0 0 0 6
52093900
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, weighing more than 200 g/m2: Dyed: Other fabrics
1.12 50.80 17.15 17.15 10 0 0 0 6
73089020
Structures (excluding prefabricated buildings of heading 94.06) and parts of structures (for example, bridges and bridge-sections, lock- gates, towers, lattice masts, roofs, roofing frame-works, doors and windows and their frames and thresholds for doors, shutters, balustrades, pillars and columns), of iron or steel; plates, rods, angles, shapes, sections, tubes and the like, prepared for use in structures, of iron or steel: Other: Gangways, girders, hangars, masts, hoists
0.00 16.94 41.44 16.94 11 0 11 12.5* 6
52081100
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2: Unbleached: Plain weave, weighing not more than 100 g/m2
0.00 16.82 22.76 16.82 10 0 0 0 6
32081090
Paints and varnishes, incl. enamels and lacquers, based on polyesters, dispersed or dissolved in a non- aqueous medium; solutions based on polyesters in volatile organic solvents, containing > 50% solvent by weight: Other
0.00 22.70 16.28 16.28 5 0 0 0 5
29032100
0.00 109.91 15.13 15.13 5 0 5 0 4.5*
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52051200
Cotton yarn (other than sewing thread), containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, not put up for retail sale: Single yarn, of uncombed fibres: Measuring less than 714.29 decitex but not less than 232.56 decitex (exceeding 14 metric number but not exceeding 43 metric number)
0.00 14.84 973.57 14.84 5 0 0 0 0
23012010
Flours, meals and pellets, of meat or meat offal, of fish or of crustaceans, molluscs or other aquatic invertebrates, unfit for human consumption; greaves: Flours, meals and pellets, of fish or of crustaceans, molluscs or other aquatic invertebrates: Shrimp meal
3.27 26.35 14.70 11.43 0 0 0 0 0
10063090 Rice other varieties 10.86 25.46 1,196.99 14.60 6 Rp450/Kg 6 Rp 450/Kg Rp 450/kg
61051000 Men's or boys' shirts, knitted or crocheted: Of cotton 0.35 14.86 280.59 14.52 15 15 0 15 15
60062200 Oth knit/cro fab cotton dyed 0.00 361.48 14.15 14.15 10 0 0 0 8.5*
52101900
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing less than 85 % by weight of cotton, mixed mainly or solely with manmade fibres, weighing not more than 200 g/m2: Unbleached: Other fabrics
0.00 44.08 12.92 12.92 10 0 0 0 6
52082100
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2: Bleached: Plain weave, weighing not more than 100 g/m2
0.02 12.57 36.67 12.54 10 0 0 0 6
11081200 Starches; inulin: Starches: Maize (corn) starch 0.00 30.44 12.35 12.35 10 0 10 0 10
7122000 Dried vegetables, whole, cut, sliced, broken or in powder, but not further prepared: Onions
0.00 12.14 15.12 12.14 5 0 0 0 5
61102000 Jerseys, pullovers, cardigans, waistcoats and similar articles, knitted or crocheted: Of cotton
0.00 11.27 39.54 11.27 15 0 0 15 15
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52092900
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, weighing more than 200 g/m2: Bleached: Other fabrics
0.15 14.70 10.61 10.46 10 0 0 0 6
42022100
Trunks, suit-cases, vanity-cases, executive-cases, briefcases, school satchels, spectacle cases, binocular cases, camera cases, musical instrument cases, gun cases, holsters and similar containers; travelling- bags, insulated food or beverages bags, toilet bags, rucksacks, handbags, shopping-bags, wallets, purses, map- cases, cigarette- cases, tobacco-pouches, tool bags, sports bags, bottle- cases, jewellery boxes, powder-boxes, cutlery cases and similar containers, of leather or of composition leather, of sheeting of plastics, of textile materials, of vulcanised fibre or of paperboard, or wholly or mainly covered with such materials or with paper: Handbags, whether or not with shoulder strap, including those without handle: With outer surface of leather, of composition leather or of patent leather
0.00 13.35 10.51 10.51 5 0 0 0 6
41131000 Leather prep.after tann goat 1.99 12.36 144.52 10.37 0 0 0 0 0
52051100
Cotton yarn (other than sewing thread), containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, not put up for retail sale: Single yarn, of uncombed fibres: Measuring 714.29 decitex or more (not exceeding 14 metric number)
0.66 10.81 121.08 10.15 5 0 0 0 0
61061000 Women's or girls' blouses, shirts and shirt-blouses, knitted or crocheted: Of cotton
0.02 10.04 26.44 10.02 15 15 0 15 15
52082200
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2: Bleached: Plain weave, weighing more than 100 g/m2
0.03 9.49 16.84 9.46 10 0 0 0 6
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52052300
Cotton yarn (other than sewing thread), containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, not put up for retail sale: Single yarn, of combed fibres: Measuring less than 232.56 decitex but not less than 192.31 decitex (exceeding 43 metric number but not exceeding 52 metric number)
0.00 41.55 9.38 9.38 5 0 0 0 0
55134100
Woven fabrics of synthetic staple fibres, containing less than 85 % by weight of such fibres, mixed mainly or solely with cotton, of a weight not exceeding 170 g/m2: Printed: Of polyester staple fibres, plain weave
2.82 12.19 242.97 9.37 10 0 0 0 6
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7.2 SECTORAL OVERVIEW OF HIGH POTENTIAL PAKISTANI EXPORTS TO INDONESIA
• The following section offers a brief overview of high potential items arranged by their HS codes.
• Trends are surveyed at different HS code levels depending on the number of high potential 8-digit HS code items within the sector, their relative levels of potential, and on the 2 and 4-digit HS code level groupings of the items within the sector.
• Tariff information for Indonesia’s major FTA partners is included for all items, with tariffs lower than those imposed on Pakistan under the PTA highlighted in blue.
• In certain cases the tariff value is the equivalent ad valorem tariff applied at the 6-digit level due to the unavailability of data at the 8 digit level.
• Tariffs imposed on Pakistan are drawn from the 6-digit level where they are not unavailable at the 8-digit level.
• All figures are in USD Millions.
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Indonesia World Imports
Pakistan World Exports
HS 30043900 and HS 30049099 have a combined trade potential with Indonesia of USD 57 million. HS 3004 has shown growth in imports from Indonesia from USD 116 million in 2004 to USD 433 million in 2013, whereas Pakistan’s exports of the same have gone from USD 37 million to USD 120 million during this period. However, Pakistan has reported no exports of either of the two items to Indonesia over the period under consideration. Indonesia has not offered concessions to any HS 3004 items under the PTA.
2013
Tariff on Pakistan
Tariff on China
Tariff on Japan
Tariff on Korea
Tariff on India
30043900 Oth medicimentharmone not ant 0.00 25.00 32.06 25.00 5 0 5 0 2
30049099 Medicaments consisting of mixed or unmixed products for therapeutic or prophylactic uses
0.00 247.18 32.09 32.09 4.7 0 4.7 0 5
100 120 140 160 180 200
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
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HS 08052010 has a trade potential of USD 90 million with Indonesia. Indonesian exports of Kinnow (HS 080520) peaked in 2012 at USD 177 million but were at a healthy USD 93 million in 2013, whereas Pakistan’s exports of the fruit have grown from USD 31 million in 2004 to USD 152 million in 2013. However, Pakistan’s Kinnow exports to Indonesia have been negligible, though the recent concession on Kinnow should change this.
2013
Tariff on Pakistan
Tariff on China
Tariff on Japan
Tariff on Korea
Tariff on India
08052010 Kinnow, fresh 3.2 89.39 124.22 90.26 0 0 20 20 25
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HS 07019000 has a trade potential with Indonesia of USD 33 million. Indonesia’s imports of potatoes have risen steeply from a mere USD 1 million in 2004 to USD 33 million in 2013, while Pakistan’s exports of the vegetable have grown from USD 5 million to USD 93 million during the same period. However, Pakistan has reported no exports of the item to Indonesia during 2004-2013. Indonesia has not offered any concession on potatoes or related tariff lines under the PTA.
2013
Tariff on Pakistan
Tariff on China
Tariff on Japan
Tariff on Korea
Tariff on India
07019000 Potatoes, fresh or chilled: Other 0.00 32.62 93.30 32.62 20 0 0 0 25
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HS 39076020, HS 39076090 and HS 39159000 have a combined trade potential of USD 140 million. USD 84 million of this trade potential lies in HS 39076020. Indonesia has shown steep growth in imports of HS 3907 and HS 3915 in recent years and Pakistan has the exporting capacity to capitalize on concessionary terms it faces from Indonesia on these terms. Pakistan has reported negligible exports of the item to Indonesia during the period under consideration. Indonesia has not offered concessions on any of these items in the PTA, and has included only one HS 39 item in its offer list.
2013
Tariff on Pakistan
Tariff on China
Tariff on Japan
Tariff on Korea
Tariff on India
39076020 Bottle grade 0.00 83.76 157.92 83.76 5 0 0 0 2.5
39076090 Oth polyethylene terephthalate 0.00 166.96 27.38 27.38 5 0 0 0 0
39159000 Waste 0.02 73.18 28.78 28.78 5 5 5 0 2
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Indonesia Exports to Pakistan
Pakistan World Imports
Indonesia World Exports
HS 10064000 and HS 10063090 have a combined trade potential of USD 77 million. Neither of these items were granted tariff concessions by Indonesia, and both the export and import of HS 1006 by Pakistan and Indonesia respectively took a steep dive from 2011 onwards. However, there is still considerable trade potential within the items based on the 2013 trade figures. Indonesia has not included any HS 10 (cereals) items in its concession list.
Tariff on Pakistan
Tariff on China
Tariff on Japan
Tariff on Korea
Tariff on India
10064000 Rice:Broken rice 15.31 77.90 250.24 62.60 12.6 Rp 450/Kg 6 Rp 450/Kg Rp 450/Kg
10063090 Rice other varieties 10.86 25.46 1196.99 14.6 6 Rp 450/Kg 12.6 0 Rp 450/Kg
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The cotton items listed have a combined trade potential of USD 514 million. HS 52081900 (USD 93 million), HS 52091900 (USD 54 million), HS 52101100 (USD 69 million), and HS 52083900 (USD 39 million) are some of the highest potential items under cotton. While Indonesia has granted significant concessions on a number of HS 52 (cotton) items, none of the high potential items listed in this section have received concessions in the PTA except for the following three: HS 52051100, HS 52051200 and HS 52083900. Pakistan has exported negligible amounts of these high potential items to Indonesia over the period under consideration despite considerable exports to the world of the same items. Indonesia has offered concessions on two HS 5205 items and HS 52083900 under the PTA, along with other HS 52 items not appearing on this high potential list (no concessions have been offered to items in HS 5209 and HS 5210).
52051100
Cotton yarn (other than sewing thread), containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, not put up for retail sale: Single yarn, of uncombed fibres: Measuring 714.29 decitex or more (not exceeding 14 metric number)
0.07 10.81 121.08 10.73 5 0 0 0 0
52051200
Cotton yarn (other than sewing thread), containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, not put up for retail sale: Single yarn, of uncombed fibres: Measuring less than 714.29 decitex but not less than 232.56 decitex (exceeding 14 metric number but not exceeding 43 metric number)
0.00 14.84 973.57 14.84 5 0 0 0 0
52052300
Cotton yarn (other than sewing thread), containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, not put up for retail sale: Single yarn, of combed fibres: Measuring less than 232.56 decitex but not less than 192.31 decitex (exceeding 43 metric number but not exceeding 52 metric number)
0.00 41.55 9.38 9.38 5 0 0 0 0
52081100
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2: Unbleached: Plain weave, weighing not more than 100 g/m2
0.00 16.82 22.76 16.82 10 0 0 0 6
52081200
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2: Unbleached: Plain weave, weighing more than 100 g/m2
0.00 17.19 222.02 17.19 10 0 0 0 6
52081900
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2: Unbleached: Other fabrics
0.01 106.16 92.58 92.57 10 0 0 0 6
52082100
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2: Bleached: Plain weave, weighing not more than 100 g/m2
0.02 12.57 36.67 12.54 10 0 0 0 6
52082200
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2: Bleached: Plain weave, weighing more than 100 g/m2
0.03 9.49 16.84 9.46 10 0 0 0 6
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52082900
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2: Bleached: Other fabrics
0.55 30.07 23.52 22.97 10 0 0 0 6
52083200
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2: Dyed: Plain weave, weighing more than 100 g/m2
0.04 92.31 19.73 19.69 10 0 0 0 6
52083900
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, weighing not more than 200 g/m2: Dyed: Other fabrics
3.05 39.20 38.81 35.76 5 0 0 0 6
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HS 5209 Woven Cotton Fabrics, 85% or more cotton, weight over 200 g/m2
52091900
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, weighing more than 200 g/m2: Unbleached: Other fabrics
0.00 54.38 96.21 54.38 10 0 0 0 6
52092900
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, weighing more than 200 g/m2: Bleached: Other fabrics
0.15 14.70 10.61 10.61 10 0 0 0 6
52093200
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, weighing more than 200 g/m2: Dyed: 3-thread or 4-thread twill, including cross twill
14.34 43.21 191.57 28.87 10 0 0 0 6
52093900
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, weighing more than 200 g/m2: Dyed: Other fabrics
1.12 50.80 17.15 17.15 10 0 0 0 6
52094200
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing 85 % or more by weight of cotton, weighing more than 200 g/m2: Of yarns of different colours: Denim
0.09 24.59 533.60 24.50 10 0 0 0 6
52101100
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing less than 85 % by weight of cotton, mixed mainly or solely with manmade fibres, weighing not more than 200 g/m2: Unbleached: Plain weave
0.17 69.11 127.11 68.94 10 0 0 0 6
52101900
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing less than 85 % by weight of cotton, mixed mainly or solely with manmade fibres, weighing not more than 200 g/m2: Unbleached: Other fabrics
0.00 44.08 12.92 12.92 10 0 0 0 6
52103100
Woven fabrics of cotton, containing less than 85 % by weight of cotton, mixed mainly or solely with manmade fibres, weighing not more than 200 g/m2: Dyed: Plain weave
0.27 31.35 77.94 31.08 10 0 0 0 6
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7.2.7 RAW HIDES, SKINS AND LEATHER (HS 417092 and HS 411310)
HS 41079200 and HS 41131000 have a combined trade potential of USD 51 million. HS 41079200 in particular has witnessed a steep rise in both exports and imports by Pakistan and Indonesia respectively, with Pakistan’s world exports rising from USD 13 million in 2010 to USD 85 million in 2013.
41079200
Leather further prepared after tanning or crusting, including parchment- dressed leather, of bovine (including buffalo) or equine animals, without hair on, whether or not split, other than leather of heading 41. 14: Other, including sides: Grain splits
1.92 42.40 84.73 40.48 0 0 0 0 0
41131000 Leather prep.after tann goat 1.99 12.36 144.52 10.37 0 0 0 0 0
7.2.8 COPPER WASTE AND SCRAP (HS 740400)
HS 740400 shows a trade potential of USD 71 million. Both exports and imports of the item peaked around 2011 before dropping off by 2013, but the trade figures still indicated healthy potential for exports to Indonesia. Pakistan reported USD 20 million exports of copper waste to Indonesia in 2012, but this fell to USD 4 million in 2013.
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74040090 Waste and scrap, copper or copper alloy:other 8.13 79.04 111.65 70.91 0 0 0 0 0
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HS 61051000, HS 61061000 and HS 61102000 have a combined trade potential of USD 36 million. While Pakistan is a major exporter of articles of apparel, reporting total HS 61 exports of over USD 2 billion in 2013, and total exports of USD 347 million for the three tariff lines listed here. While Indonesia is not a large importer of these products as of yet, imports have seen a steady rise since 2007. Indonesia has offered concessions on several HS 61 items, including HS 61051000, though it has offered no concessions on HS 6106 or HS 6110.
Tariff on Pakistan
Tariff on China
Tariff on Japan
Tariff on Korea
Tariff on India
61051000 Men's or boys' shirts, knitted or crocheted: Of cotton 0.35 14.86 280.59 14.52 9 15 0 15 15
61061000 Women's or girls' blouses, shirts and shirt-blouses, knitted or crocheted: Of cotton
0.02 10.04 26.44 10.02 15 15 0 15 15
61102000 Jerseys, pullovers, cardigans, waistcoats and similar articles, knitted or crocheted: Of cotton
0.00 11.27 39.54 11.27 15 0 0 15 15
7.2.9 ARTICLES OF APPAREL, KNIT OR CROCHET (HS 61)
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7.2.10 ARTICLES OF APPAREL, NOT KNIT OR CROCHET (HS 62)
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HS 62024200 and HS 62034300 have a combined trade potential of about USD 40 million, with USD 33 million of the potential residing within the latter. Indonesia’s imports of HS 620342 have risen steadily since 2010, whereas Pakistan is a major exporter of the item, exporting over USD 600 million in 2013. While Indonesia has granted concessions on several HS 62 items, the high potential items listed here do not appear on its offer list.
62034200
Men's or boys' suits, ensembles, jackets, blazers, trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts (other than swimwear): Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts: Of cotton
1125 34262 334193 33137 15 15 0 0 15
62034300
Men's or boys' suits, ensembles, jackets, blazers, trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts (other than swimwear): Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts: Of synthetic fibres
0 6700 14103 6700 15 15 0 0 15
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HS 640399 shows trade potential of USD 44 million. Indonesia has witnessed a steep rise in imports of the item since 2010, climbing from USD 10 million to USD 44 million in 2013. Pakistan reported exports amounting to USD 74 million of the footwear item in 2013, but has reported no exports to Indonesia of the item during the period under consideration. There are no HS 64 items on Indonesia’s concession list.
64039900
Footwear with outer soles of rubber, plastics, leather or composition leather and uppers of leather: Other footwear: Other
0.00 44.00 74.44 44.00 20 0 20 0 8
7.2.12 INSTRUMENTS USED IN MEDICAL SCIENCES (HS 901890)
HS 901890 shows a trade potential of USD 115 million, the highest potential within a single item at the 8 digit HS code level from those surveyed in this report. Imports and exports of the item by Indonesia and Pakistan respectively have exhibited net growth during the period under consideration, though Pakistan has exported only negligible quantities of the product to Indonesia during this time. Pakistan has doubled its exports of the item from USD 150 million in 2004 to USD 297 million in 2013, while Indonesia has increased its imports from USD 21 million to USD 115 million during the same time period. Indonesia has made no concessions to any items under HS 90 under the PTA.
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90189090 Oth inst,app medical/sur/veten 0.51 115.49 296.61 114.98 5 0 0 0 4.5
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7.2.13 WOVEN FABRIC OF SYNTHETIC FIBRE (HS 55132100 and HS 55134100)
HS 55132100 and HS 55134100 exhibit a combined trade potential of USD 37 million. Pakistani exports of HS 5513 products have experience net growth between 2004 and 2013 despite a significant falling off after 2011. Indonesian imports, on the other hand, have witnessed a steady rise since 2007, from USD 13 million to USD 180 million in 2013. Indonesia has offered a concession on HS 55132100, along with a number of other HS 55 items.
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Woven fabrics of synthetic staple fibres, containing less than 85 % by weight of such fibres, mixed mainly or solely with cotton, of a weight not exceeding 170 g/m2: Dyed: Of polyester staple fibres, plain weave
0.16 28.10 66.34 27.94 5 0 0 0 6
55134100
Woven fabrics of synthetic staple fibres, containing less than 85 % by weight of such fibres, mixed mainly or solely with cotton, of a weight not exceeding 170 g/m2: Printed: Of polyester staple fibres, plain weave
2.82 12.19 242.97 9.37 10 0 0 0 6
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8.0 INDONESIA EXPORT TO PAKISTAN TRADE POTENTIAL OVERVIEW
8.1 TOP 50 HIGH POTENTIAL INDONESIAN EXPORTS TO PAKISTAN AT THE 8 DIGIT HS CODE LEVEL
• An analysis of 4230 Indonesian export items from a total of 6538 at the 8 digit HS code level reveals a trade potential with Pakistan of USD 11.7 billion.
• The high potential items analysed account for over USD 1 billion of Indonesia’s total exports to Pakistan.
• The top 50 high potential items at the 8 digit HS code level account for USD 9.8 billion of the total potential calculated.
• Therefore 84% of the total trade potential exists along 50 tariff lines on the 8 digit HS level.
• Significant potential for export to Pakistan lies in palm oil, petroleum and other mineral fuels, as well as organic chemicals.
• Pakistan’s tariffs on FTA partners Malaysia and China are by and large consistent with or less favourable than the concessions it has afforded to Indonesia under the PTA.
• Pakistan’s offers more favourable concessions to Sri Lanka than to Indonesia on many of these high potential products.
• An asterisk denotes a tariff drawn from 6 digit HS code data due to the unavailability of the information at the 8 digit level. All Sri Lankan tariffs are drawn from 6 digit level data.
Figures in USD Billions TOP 50 HIGH POTENTIAL INDONESIAN EXPORTS TO PAKISTAN AT 8 DIGIT LEVEL
HS Code Product label Indonesia Exports to
Pakistan 2013
Lanka*
27090000 Crude petroleum oil 0 5,463.70 8,019.08 5,463.70 0 5 5 0
15119090 Unsolid fractions of refined palm oil, 669.44 1,610.01 8,343.68 940.58 Rs. 9180/MT Rs. 10800/MT Rs. 10800/MT 30.1
27011290 Bituminous coal: other than coking coal 0 430.38 5,189.73 430.38 0 0 0 0
27011900 Other coal 56.21 430.38 10,441.09 374.17 0 5 5 0
27101941 Lubricating oil basestock 0 435.18 310.23 310.23 12.6* 5 11.6* 4.2
15111000 Crude palm oil 36.22 237.67 4,978.53 201.45 Rs. 6800/MT Rs. 9500/MT Rs. 9500/MT 9.6
54023300 Textured yarn of polyesters 3.04 211.75 200.7 197.66 10 10 10 6.3
31021000 Urea, with or not in aqueous solution 0 182.83 508.26 182.83 0 5 5 0
29024300 P-xylene 0 485.5 158.53 158.53 5 5 5 _
30049090 Other medicaments oth than herbal medica 0.01 179.46 96.19 96.18 13.6 10 10 4.5
50
Pakistan 2013
Lanka*
29025000 Styrene 0 93.31 228.84 93.31 5 5 5 1.7
74031100 Refined copper for cathodes and sections of cathodes 0 76.73 524.6 76.73 0 5 5 0
9024090 Black tea (fermented), in packing > 3 kg other than leaf 10.36 340.78 86.24 75.89 5 10 9.2 10
55041000 Artifcl staple fibres of viscose rayon, carded/othwise procssed for sp 57.12 132.33 390.1 75.21 5 5 5 1.7
84119900 Oth parts of gas turbines 0 108.11 70.36 70.36 5 5 5 1.7
84314300 Parts of boring/sinking mach of subhead 8430.41/8430.49 0.38 62.67 95.57 62.3 5 5 5 1.7
54024700 Oth yarn, single, of oth polyesters for mdical/srgical use, <=50 turns 0.8 61.4 117.16 60.6 10 10 10 6.3
39012000 Polyethylene having a specific gravity 0.94 or more 0.57 211.47 49.24 48.68 5 5 5 5
85044090 Other static converter 0 42.5 114.68 42.5 13.3* 10 10 4.4
29051600 Octanol (octyl alcohol) and isomers thereof 0 39.25 185.02 39.25 5 5 5 1.7
29224100 Lysine and its esters; salts thereof 1.17 39.93 290.14 38.77 0 5 5 1.7
39021090 Polypropylene in granule form 0.47 422.36 37.56 37.09 5 5 5 1.7
29051100 Methanol (methyl alcohol) 0 36.75 141.61 36.75 5 5 5 1.7
90189090 Other instruments&appliances in medical 0.06 35.09 92.51 35.03 5 5 5 1.7
29349990 Other nucleic acids and their salts, whether or not chemically defined 0.75 53.19 35.6 34.85 5 11.7* 10.4* 3.9
26011100 Iron ores and concentrates, other than roasted iron pyrites :non agglo 0 34.65 425.47 34.65 5 5 5 1.7
84821000 Ball bearings 0 33.58 145.62 33.58 5 5 5 1.7
76011000 Aluminium, not alloyed 0 32.75 265.79 32.75 0 5 5 0
84069000 Parts of steam turbines and parts 0.02 43.13 31.14 31.13 5 5 5 1.7
87089990 Other parts,acces for other vehicles of 0.81 31.92 187.75 31.12 35 35 35 23.1
39269099 Other articles of plastics and other 0.06 29.95 68.93 29.89 12.2* 12.2* 20 12.2
29053100 Ethylene glycol (ethanediol) 0 298.21 29.45 29.45 0 5 5 0
85171200 Telephones for cellular networks/for other wireless networks 0 666.37 28.39 28.39 0 13.3* 6.1* 4.4
55092100 Single yarn cont >=85% by weight of polyester staple fibres 29.17 55.87 331.89 26.7 10 10 10 6.3
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Pakistan 2013
Lanka*
85022030 Generat sets with spark-ignition intrn combust piston outp>100kva & <= 0 1,448.90 25.69 25.69 10 10 9.2* 3.3
29224990 Oth amino acids,o.t.t containing more than one kind of oxygen function 0.49 25.03 79.73 24.54 5 5 5 1.7
40112010 New pneumatic tyre,of rubber used on buses/lorries, width<450mm 0.04 24.2 99.67 24.16 12.5* 20 20 4.1
54075200 Dyed woven fabrics cont.>=85% of weight of textured polyester flmnt 1.01 24.95 193.1 23.94 15 15 15 15
32041600 Reactive dyes & preparations based thereof 2.12 72.61 25.25 23.13 15 15 15 5
73041900 Oth.tube,pipe&hollow profile,seamless, line pipe of a kind use for oil
0 22.01 228.09 22.01 15 15 15 5
29161200 Esters of acrylic acid 0 19.31 90.81 19.31 0 5 5 1.7
30043900 Oth medicam cont hormon, adrenalin, oth prod of hd 29.37, not cont ins 0 19.3 30.92 19.3 10 10 10 3.3
40012220 Tsnr, oth standard indonesian rubber 8.78 27.83 6,349.75 19.05 0 5 5 0
47032900 Chemical wood pulp, soda, oth than dis solving grades,bleached,non con 9.4 28.3 1,840.84 18.9 0 5 5 _
84189910 Evaporators and condensers 0.06 18.81 23.78 18.76 10 5 5 10
38170000 Mixed alkylbenzenes & mixed alkyl naphthalanes oth than head 2707 or 2 0 79.18 18.74 18.74 5 5 5 1.7
39076090 Poly(ethylene terephthalate) in oth form 0 18.25 294.82 18.25 11.7* 20 20 11.7
8028000 Areca nuts, whether/not shelled/ peeled, 67.85 86.09 165.84 18.24 8.6* 8.6* _ _
73051100 Lines pipe, for oil or gas longitudinall submerged arc welded of iron/ 0 18.01 93.74 18.01 10 10 10 3.3
72023000 Ferro-silico-manganese 0 18.05 17.49 17.49 5 5 5 1.7
76012000 Aluminium alloys 0 20.11 16.87 16.87 0 5 5 0
89051000 Dredgers 0 16.86 70.01 16.86 5 5 5 1.7
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8.2 SECTORAL OVERVIEW OF HIGH POTENTIAL INDONESIAN EXPORTS TO PAKISTAN
• The following section offers a brief overview of high potential items arranged by their HS codes.
• Trends are surveyed at different HS code levels depending on the number of 8-digit HS code items considered within the sector, their relative levels of potential and on the 2 and 4-digit HS code level groupings of the items within the sector.
• Tariff information for Pakistan’s major FTA partners is included for all items, with tariffs lower than those imposed on Indonesia under the PTA highlighted in blue.
• In certain cases the tariff value is the equivalent ad valorem tariff applied at the 6-digit level due to the unavailability of data at the 8 digit level.
• All figures are in USD Millions.
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8.2.1 UNSOLID FRACTIONS OF REFINED PALM OIL (HS 15119099)
HS 15119090 shows a trade potential of USD 940 million, the highest for any Indonesia export item to Pakistan analysed at the 8-digit level. Indonesian world exports of the item have risen steeply over the last few years, and Pakistan’s imports also show an upward trend. Pakistan has granted concessions to several items in HS 151190 including the one under consideration.
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15119090 Unsolid fractions of refined palm oil, 669.44 1,610.01 8,343.68 940.58 RS. 9180/MT Rs. 10800/MT Rs. 10800/MT 30.1
Pakistan 2013
Tariff on Sri Lanka
27011290 Bituminous coal: other than coking coal 0.00 430.38 5,189.73 430.38 0 0 0 0
27011900 Other coal 56.21 430.38 10,441.09 374.17 0 5 5 0
27090000 Crude petroleum oil 0.00 5,463.70 8,019.08 5,463.70 0 5 5 0
27101941 Lubricating oil basestock 0.00 435.18 310.23 310.23 12.6 5 11.6 4.2
HS 27 items with high potential exhibit a collective potential of USD 6.6 billion. HS 27090010 alone accounts for USD 5.5 billion of this potential. Indonesia is a major exporter of HS 27090010 as well as items under HS 2701, whereas Pakistan imports significant amounts of these items as well.
Pakistan 2013
29025000 Styrene 0.00 93.31 228.84 93.31 5 5 5 1.7
29051100 Methanol (methyl alcohol) 0.00 36.75 141.61 36.75 5 5 5 1.7
29051600 Octanol (octyl alcohol) and isomers thereof 0.00 39.25 185.02 39.25 5 5 5 1.7
29053100 Ethylene glycol (ethanediol) 0.00 298.21 29.45 29.45 0 5 5 0
29161200 Esters of acrylic acid 0.00 19.31 90.81 19.31 0 5 5 1.7
29224100 Lysine and its esters; salts thereof 1.17 39.93 290.14 38.77 5 5 5 1.7
29224990 Oth amino acids,o.t.t containing more than one kind of oxygen function 0.49 25.03 79.73 24.54 5 5 5 1.7
29349990 Other nucleic acids and their salts, whether or not chemically defined 0.75 53.19 35.60 34.85 5 11.7 10.4 3.9
HS 29 items show a collective trade potential of USD 475 million. HS 290243 accounts for USD 159 million of this potential. Indonesia was a major exporter of this item until 2011 after which there was a precipitous drop off in exports. However, the trade figures still indicate notable potential within this item. Pakistan has offered concession to Indonesia on only HS 29161200 from among the items listed here.
Pakistan 2013
Tariff on Sri Lanka
30043900 Oth medicam cont hormon, adrenalin, oth prod of hd 29.37, not cont ins 0.00 19.30 30.92 19.30 10 10 10 3.3
30049099 Other medicaments oth than herbal medica 0.01 179.46 96.19 96.18 13.6 10 10 4.5
HS 3004 exhibits a total trade potential of USD 115 million, with USD 96 million of the potential contained in HS 30049099. Both imports and exports of HS 3004 by Pakistan and Indonesia respectively have experienced upward trends from 2004-2013. Neither of the products listed have received concessions by Pakistan under the PTA.
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Pakistan 2013
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31021000 Urea, with or not in aqueous solution 0 182.83 508.26 182.83 0 5 5 0
HS 31021000 shows a trade potential of USD 182 million. Indonesia’s world exports of the items have grown rapidly over the last few years, whereas Pakistan experienced an overall increase in imports until 2011 before dropping off.
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Tariff on China
39012000 Polyethylene having a specific gravity 0.94 or more 0.57 211.47 49.24 48.68 5 5 5 5
39021090 Polypropylene in granule form 0.47 422.36 37.56 37.09 5 5 5 1.7*
39076090 Poly(ethylene terephthalate) in oth form 0.00 18.25 294.82 18.25 11.7* 20 20 11.7*
39269099 Other articles of plastics and other 0.06 29.95 68.93 29.89 16 12.2* 20 12.2*
HS 39 shows a collective trade potential of USD 134 million. HS 39012000 accounts for USD 49 million of this potential. The imports and exports of plastics by Pakistan and Indonesia respectively have followed a similar upward trend over the period under consideration. Pakistan has offered Indonesia a concession on only one of the high potential items listed here, HS 39269099.
Pakistan 2013
Tariff on Sri Lanka
54023300 Textured yarn of polyesters 3.04 211.75 200.70 197.66 10 10 10 6.3*
54024700 Oth yarn, single, of oth polyesters for mdical/srgical use, <=50 turns 0.80 61.40 117.16 60.60 10 10 10 6.3*
54075200 Dyed woven fabrics cont.>=85% of weight of textured polyester flmnt 1.01 24.95 193.10 23.94 15 15 15 15*
HS 54 shows a trade potential of USD 282 million. HS 540233 accounts for USD 198 million of the total potential. Indonesia has consistently exported HS 54 items in quantities exceeding USD 1 billion per annum, and Pakistan has imported HS 54 items worth over USD 500 million since 2010. Pakistan has granted Indonesia concessions on items under HS 54, but not to the items listed here.
Pakistan 2013
Tariff on Sri Lanka
55041000 Artifcl staple fibres of viscose rayon, carded/othwise procssed for sp 57.12 132.33 390.10 75.21 5 5 5 1.7
55092100 Single yarn cont >=85% by weight of polyester staple fibres 29.17 55.87 331.89 26.70 10 10 10 6.3
HS 55 items exhibit a total trade potential of USD 102 million. Both HS 5504 and HS 5509 have reported significant exports from Indonesia to Pakistan over the period of 2004- 2013, suggesting that a market for Indonesian staple fibres already exists. However, Pakistan has not offered concessions on any HS 55 items under the terms of the PTA.
Pakistan 2013
Tariff on Sri Lanka
84069000 Parts of steam turbines and parts 0.02 43.13 31.14 31.13 5 5 5 1.7*
84119900 Oth parts of gas turbines 0.00 108.11 70.36 70.36 5 5 5 1.7*
84189910 Evaporators and condensers 0.06 18.81 23.78 18.76 10 5 5 10
84314300 Parts of boring/sinking mach of subhead 8430.41/8430.49 0.38 62.67 95.57 62.30 5 5 5 1.7*
84821000 Ball bearings 0.00 33.58 145.62 33.58 5 5 5 1.7*
HS 84 high potential items show a collective trade potential of USD 216 million, with USD 70 million of the potential residing in HS 84119900. Indonesia has exported HS 84 items in excess of USD 5 billion since 2011, and Pakistan has consistently imported around USD 3 billion worth of HS 84 items since 2009. None of the items listed here have been granted concessions by Pakistan under the PTA.
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85022030 Generat sets with spark-ignition intrn combust piston outp>100kva & <= 0 25.69 1,448.90 25.69 10 10 9.2* 3.3
85044090 Other static converter 0 114.68 42.50 114.68 13.3 10 10 4.4
85171200 Telephones for cellular networks/for other wireless networks 0 28.39 666.37 28.39 13.3 13.3* 6.1* 4.4
HS 85 high potential items exhibit a total trade potential of USD 97 million. Indonesia is a major exporter of electronic equipment and has annually exported in excess of USD 10 billion HS 85 items since 2010. Pakistan is a major importer of HS 85 items and has annually imported more than USD 2 billion since 2010. None of the items listed here have been granted concessions under the Pakistan-Indonesia PTA.
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9.0 RECOMMENDATIONS Since a PTA is signed with the goal of eventually becoming a FTA, it is important to take note of sectors within which Pakistan should negotiate concessions for its products under the eventual FTA, especially if the PTA does not sufficiently focus on said areas.
• This Study suggests that Pakistan has offered more favourable terms to high potential Indonesian items than Indonesia has offered to high potential Pakistani items. The PTA did little to extend similarly favourable terms to Pakistan. Pakistan is therefore in a position to request similarly favourable treatment from Indonesia during the FTA negotiations.
• Pakistan needs to negotiate concessions on high potential cotton items. Analysis shows that cotton products have trade potential of over USD 500 million as exports to Indonesia in 21 items at the 8 digit HS code level. However, the high potential items identified within cotton have by and large not received concessions and almost uniformly face significantly higher tariffs than do Indonesia’s other FTA partners.
• Concessions must be negotiated on high potential apparel items. The Study shows that HS 61 (Articles of Apparel, knit or crochet) and HS 62 (Articles of Apparel, not knit or crochet) have a combined trade potential of over USD 70 million in five items at the 8 digit HS code level. While there are items from both HS codes on Indonesia’s offer list, the five items identif

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