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An Introduction to Oracle’s Primavera Risk Analysis
Prepared by:
Paul Monaghan
1st Milestone Ltd
Overview via Slideshow
Product Demonstration
Session ID#: 15487
Agenda for the Session
■ Primavera Risk Analysis and Management Overview via Slideshow
■ Primavera Risk Analysis – Product Demonstration
▪ Schedule checks and schedule improvement
▪ Using basic schedule uncertainty
▪ Running a Monte Carlo risk analysis
▪ Understanding the results
▪ What-if scenarios
▪ Impact of risks from a risk register
▪ Comparing pre and post mitigation scenarios
▪ Combined schedule and cost modelling
1st Milestone Ltd Oracle Platinum Partner Specializing in Oracle’s Primavera Applications
■ Representing Primavera for 20 years
■ Our Focus:
▪ Application / Business Consulting
▪ Oracle University Primavera Training
▪ Integration Consulting
▪ IT Support and Hosting
■ Our credentials are proof of our commitment to quality, and they help demonstrate
our deep understanding and proactive assessment of Resource, Project, Programme
and Portfolio Management solutions.
▪ Oracle University – Education Partner
▪ PRINCE2 Practitioners
■ Milestone announced the winners of the UKOUG Primavera and Oracle Projects
Partners of the Year:
▪ Gold Award 2011 & 2012!
▪ Silver Award 2010
Primavera Risk Analysis
■ Focus
▪ Specialist product for project risk analysis and management
▪ An ‘add-on’ package for Primavera P6PPM and EPPM
■ Pinpoint key facts
▪ Likelihood of delivering the project on time and budget
▪ Most important tasks and risks in the schedule
■ Understand overall cost/schedule risk exposure
▪ The impact of delay
▪ Determine contingency and mitigation
■ Better decision making
▪ Increased accuracy of project schedules
▪ Reduce exposure to risk for more successful project execution
Risk Analysis Output
■ Risk Histogram
▪ Displays likelihood of
project delivery
■ Risk Tornado chart
▪ Displays task and risk
drivers
Risk Analysis Process
■ Risk ready schedule
▪ Check the schedule for
sound logic and errors
■ Risk inputs
▪ Estimate uncertainty
▪ Risk events/Risk register
■ Risk impact
▪ Map risks to tasks
■ Risk analysis
▪ Monte Carlo simulation
■ Risk response
▪ Determine contingency
▪ Mitigation scenarios
Risk Management
Process
Checking a Schedule
Three Point Estimates
Duration/Cost
■ Estimate Uncertainty
Three Point Estimates: Input
■ Quickly input 3 point estimates using “Quick Risk” templates
Task Existence and Branching
■ Task Existence
■ Branching: Probabilistic
Outcome C
Outcome A
? Outcome B
?
Project Risk Events – Risk Register
■ Estimate Uncertainty + Risk Events = Total Risk Exposure
▪ Uncertainty (3 point estimates)
▪ Risks from a risk register
▪ Monte Carlo simulation
Primavera Risk Analysis Product Demonstration
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