An Overview of The National Climate Assessment

CLIVARWashington, DCJanuary 9, 2012

Katharine Jacobs Office of Science and Technology Policy

http://assessment.globalchange.gov

2

Global Change Research Act (1990), Section 106

…not less frequently than every 4 years, the Council… shall prepare… an assessment which–• integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings

of the Program and discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings;

• analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and

• analyzes current trends in global change, both human- induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years.

3

What is New About the 2013 National Climate Assessment (NCA)

• Sustainable process with multiple products over time• New topics, cross-sectoral studies• Consistent national matrix of indicators• Central coordination, multiple partners, distributed process• Regional and sectoral networks building assessment

capacity• Recognizes international context• Engagement and communications focus• Web-based data and tools for decision support• Process workshops to establish methodologies

4

Outline for 2013 Report

• The scientific basis for climate change

• Sectors and sectoral cross-cuts• Regions and biogeographical

cross-cuts• Decision support, mitigation

and adaptation• Agenda for climate change

science• The NCA long-term process

5

Sectors

• Water resources• Energy supply and use• Transportation• Agriculture• Forestry• Ecosystems and biodiversity• Human health

6

Sectoral Cross-Cuts

• Water, energy, and land use• Urban/infrastructure/

vulnerability• Impacts of climate change on

tribal, indigenous, and native lands and resources

• Land use and land cover change• Rural communities and

development• Impacts on biogeochemical

cycles

7

Regions

Northeast

Southeast and Caribbean

Midwest

Great Plains

Northwest

Southwest

Alaska and Arctic

Hawaii and Pacific Islands

+ Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands

+ Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, American Samoa and other minor outlying islands

8

Biogeographical Cross-Cuts

• Oceans and marine resources• Coastal zone, development, and ecosystems, e.g.,

– SF Bay Delta– Chesapeake Bay– Gulf Coast

• Watersheds, e.g.,– Great Lakes– Colorado River– Columbia River– Mississippi River

9

Assessment Structure

9

CENRS/OSTP

US Global Change Research Program (Federal)

• USGCRP Principals• Interagency National Climate Assessment (INCA) Task Force• Assessment Staff• Technical Support and Coordination units (e.g. NCDC)

Network of Partners and Stakeholders

• Regional Networks• Professional Societies• Citizen Groups• NGOs

National Climate Assessment

Development and Advisory Committee

(NCADAC) a.k.a. Federal Advisory

Committee

NCADAC Working Groups• Regions (SW, NE, etc.)• Sectors (water, energy, etc.)• Data Management• Science• Scenarios• Indicators• Etc.

10

National Climate Assessment Development and Advisory Committee

• 60 member federal advisory committee, including 44 non-federal members and 16 federal ex-officio representatives– Chair: Jerry Melillo, Marine

Biological Laboratory– Vice Chairs: T.C.

Richmond, GordonDerr, LLP and Gary Yohe, Wesleyan University

– 13 member Executive Secretariat

• Wide variety of expertise and perspectives

• Providing advice on both the 2013 Report AND on the ongoing process

• Responsible for authoring the Assessment report(s) to the USGCRP that will be the basis of the report to the President and Congress

11

NCADAC Working Groups1. Scenarios and Regional Summaries2. Request for Information3. Peer Review, Information Standards, and

Access4. Engagement, Communication, and

Evaluation5. Regional Coordination6. Sectoral Coordination7. Science of Climate Change8. Agenda for Climate Change Science9. Adaptation and Mitigation10. Indicators Development and Evaluation11. International12. Sustained Process

NCAnet: Partners in Assessment

• A network of organizations that extend the NCA process and products to a broader audience through their stakeholders and members

• Building long-term capacity to conduct and use assessments

• Cultivating partnerships with organizations that will participate in the sustained assessment process

12

13

Guidance to Teams• Risk based framing• Assessing and communicating confidence levels and

uncertainties • Information quality and documentation: transparency and “chain

of custody” of information is critical• Four scenarios provided:

– Climate– Sea level change– Land use and land cover– Socioeconomic information

• Focus on community and capacity building• Start with 2009 report, identify the new news• Consider international context, adaptation and mitigation options,

research needs, next steps for the sustained assessment, etc.

14NCADAC Meeting, November 16-17, 2011

2013 Report Production Timeline

Expressions of Interest

Oct 1, 2011

DevelopmentOf technical input

Mar 1, 2012

Author teams incorporate Technical Input and other sources , draft chapters and

suggest downstream products and processes to the NCADAC

O

May 1 2012

CLAs and editors synthesize chapters and NCADAC reviews

full document

Oct 1 2012

SA N D OSA N DJ F M A M J J

NRC , Agency,

and Public review CLAs and

NCADAC revise draft

OSA N DJ F M A M J J

NRC

Jan 1 2013

Feb1

Mar 1

Jul 1

Agency SIGN OFF Web and

summary layout and printing

NCADAC to consider revisions (from agencies and EOP) and approve report

2nd NRC Review: Were comments adequately addressed?

Oct 1 2013

Request to NRC and USGCRP agencies to hear preliminary presentations of potential key conclusions to identify potential “show-stoppers” (July, 2012)

CLA mtg. (Jan. 2012)

Aug 1 2012

Jun1

Rough layout

Executive Office of the President comments and adopts

Deadline for new information included in draft report(July 31, 2012)

Add information only in response to review comments (deadline: April 30, 2013)

Draft chapters due (June 1, 2012)

Document comments, and review editors to judge adequacy of responses (iterative process)

15

Outcomes of the NCA

• Ongoing, relevant analysis of scientific understanding of climate change impacts, risk, and vulnerability

• Enhanced timely access to Assessment-related data from multiple sources

• Systematic evaluation of progress towards reducing risk, vulnerability, and impacts

• A sustained process for informing an integrated research program

• Evaluation of the implications of alternative adaptation and mitigation options

• Information that provides the foundation for a science-based national discourse on climate change